Playing the free agent market is just as risky as playing the stock market. Teams make multimillion-dollar investments and hope for a positive return.
However, just like the stock market, sometimes the value goes up, and sometimes the value goes down.
Players have horrible years just as often as players have great years. If the first case is true, then the implications could be felt for years. Bad contracts tie up resources that should be being used to improve the team.
So what happened this year? How will this year's acquisitions pan out?
Obviously, this is an imperfect science, but it is definitely worth considering some statistical predictions for the top 15 free agents signed this winter.
Also, I am only dealing with free agents who have been signed as of December 19. It is hard to predict statistics if you don't know where the player is going to be playing.