Week 14 NFL Predictions: 4 Teams That Are Locks to Cover the Spread
Week 14 of the NFL season provides another opportunity for bettors to hedge their bets against the spread.
Of course, betting against the spread is never a sure-fire science. But using betting trends, recent matchups and recent performance, we can paint a much clearer of how each matchup will perform in terms of a cover.
In the following slides, we'll provide you four teams that look like safe bets against the spread in Week 14.
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns (-7.0)
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This line has grown as the week progressed, from a 4.5-point open to a touchdown spread currently. But I'm still taking the Browns to cover, and for a couple of reasons.
No longer is Cleveland a pushover, even in a betting sense. The Browns have won four of their last seven games, including covers in four of the last six (one push). Cleveland is now 6-4 overall and 4-2 at home against the spread.
But maybe more importantly, the Chiefs could be in line for a huge letdown. While emotion from the last week included a win at home against the Panthers, few would blame the Chiefs if the product in Cleveland Sunday is below expectation. Browns could win big.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.0)
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The Lions continue to blow covers, but the recent history between these two teams suggest that Detroit has a solid chance of covering at Lambeau Field Sunday night.
Four of the last five games in this series has finished within seven points, including each of the last two at Lambeau Field. The Lions have also played the Packers, Texans and Colts—all three playoff teams—within a touchdown over the last month.
The weather in Green Bay (cold, snow) Sunday night will likely hold down the scoring. Don't expect the Packers to blow out the Lions.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
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Everything about the betting trends here says that the Colts will cover a 5.5-point spread.
Indianapolis is 5-1 against the spread this season, including 3-1 as the favorite and 2-1 as the home favorite. The only week the Colts failed to cover was a 22-17 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Tennessee is just about as predictable on the road. The Titans are just 2-4 against the spread away, including 2-3 as the away underdog.
Trust the trends and go with Indianapolis.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)
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Taking a 10.5-point line for the favorite goes against most of the betting handbook, but stick with me here.
The Dolphins are traveling across the country, without their starting left tackle, to take on possibly the best front seven in football. With no Jake Long at left tackle, rookie Jonathan Martin will man Ryan Tannehill's blind side Sunday. Aldon Smith and Justin Smith could take over this game.
Colin Kaepernick has to be better than he was in St. Louis in Week 13, but the 49ers are head and shoulders better here. A two-touchdown win at home is certainly doable here.