When it comes to Justin Blackmon, we all need to take a deep breath—and a step back from our keyboards—before immediately plugging the Jaguars wide receiver into fantasy lineups for Week 12.
There's no question that Blackmon had one of the great receiving days in the history of the NFL on Sunday, catching seven passes for 236 yards, a performance that included an 81-yard touchdown.
He put up massive numbers in every league, regardless of how your scoring system works. In my my most important league, Blackmon went off for 52 points on someone's bench.
But let's be realistic about what we can expect from him in Week 12 when the Jaguars face the Tennessee Titans.
Before Sunday afternoon, Blackmon's career high in receiving yardage was 67 against the Green Bay Packers in Week 8. Entering the Texans game, he was averaging just over 31 receiving yards per game.
Tennessee isn't great against the pass, allowing 266 yards through the air and more than two passing touchdowns per game.
They've allowed only four receivers to pick up more than 90 yards against them in 2012 and only three to eclipse the 100-yard mark: Detroit's Calvin Johnson, Chicago's Brandon Marshall, and Pittsburgh RB Issac Redman.
According to the Florida Times-Union's Vito Stellino, Jaguars coach Mike Mularky has yet to decide on who will start under center for Jacksonville in Week 12.
If it's Blaine Gabbert, Blackmon immediately becomes a non-option, as we've all seen what Gabbert can do, and it's not pretty. No more than 40 yards receiving and no chance of sniffing the end zone are in his future if it's Gabbert delivering the ball.
If it's Chad Henne, Blackmon becomes a more intriguing option—but as a third wide receiver or flex option, nothing more.
Expecting 50-60 yards receiving and a chance at a touchdown sounds about right.
Realistically, Justin Blackmon is going to disappoint you going forward, as 100-yard receiving days—much less 200-yard games—will be the exception, not the norm, for the rookie going forward in 2012.
That includes Week 12.