NFL Week 11 Picks: Road Teams with Best Shot at Winning on Sunday

Darin Pike@darinpikeContributor INovember 18, 2012

BALTIMORE, MD - NOVEMBER 11:  Quarterback Joe Flacco #5 of the Baltimore Ravens throws a pass against the Oakland Raiders at M&T Bank Stadium on November 11, 2012 in Baltimore, Maryland.  (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Rob Carr/Getty Images

The Week 11 picks heavily favor home teams, as the road challengers face some tough competition. But there are a few visiting teams that should be able to make some noise on Sunday.

While we aren't likely to see all the home teams win, they could easily go 11-3 in Week 11. Of course the Buffalo Bills already have a good start for the home teams.

Here are the visitors worthy of consideration this weekend.


Game: Green Bay at Detroit

When: Sunday, Nov. 18 at 1 p.m. ET

Over/Under: 52.5 (odds via Bovada)

Spread: Packers -3.5

Moneyline: Lions -160, Packers +140

Score Prediction: Green Bay 30, Detroit 24

The Packers have shown the ability to play good defense at times, but they have also surrendered points to elite offenses and the Indianapolis Colts. The loss of Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson will make it more difficult for the Packers to pressure the quarterback and Calvin Johnson.

The following players will not play on Sunday vs. @detroitlionsnfl: Greg Jennings, Clay Matthews, Andrew Quarless, Charles Woodson.

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 16, 2012

Matt Stafford and Johnson are finding their game and could turn this contest into a track meet.

The Packers will be tough, even at Ford Field. A healthy Jordy Nelson could be the difference in this game.

This is a game I'll stay away from, but if I were to place a bet, I'd lean toward taking the Lions straight up.


Game: Cincinnati at Kansas City

When: Sunday, Nov. 18 at 1 p.m. ET

Over/Under: 43.5

Spread: Bengals -3.5

Moneyline: Bengals -185, Chiefs +160

Score Prediction: Cincinnati 31, Kansas City 17

I feel a lot better with this matchup. The Cincinnati Bengals broke out of their four-game winning streak in grand fashion last week. Instead of becoming irrelevant, they beat the suddenly struggling New York Giants.

Some believe this could be a sleeper pick, calling this a trap game. I don't buy it...with my money or yours.

Arrowhead Stadium was once the most dangerous venue in the NFL. Fan fervor has waned with the team's performance, though. Andy Dalton will air the ball out to A.J. Green early and often.

The Bengals have nothing to lose, and lose is all Kansas City has been good at this season. Give up the points and ignore the over/under in this game.


Game: Tampa Bay at Carolina

When: Sunday, Nov. 18 at 1 p.m. ET

Over/Under: 48.5

Spread: Buccaneers -2

Moneyline: Panthers +107, Bucs -127

Score Prediction: Tampa Bay 28, Carolina 17

Once every few weeks there is an odds release that makes me scratch my head. For example, there have been a few can't-miss over/under marks this season.

Then this line shows up with Tampa Bay holding just a two-point edge.

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Buccaneers are playing great football and the Panthers aren't.

I also like the under in this game. I feel 17 points is generous for the Panthers.


Game: New Orleans at Oakland

When: Sunday, Nov. 18 at 4:25 p.m. ET

Over/Under: 55

Spread: Saints -6

Moneyline: Raiders +185, Saints -225

Score Prediction: New Orleans 48, Oakland 34

Last month I predicted the Raiders were ready to make some noise in the AFC. They won a few games and then lost Darren McFadden and forgot how to play defense.

Their offense should spark against an improving Saints defense, even though the Saints have been slightly more stingy with points the last two weeks.

The Ravens dropped 55 on Oakland. Drew Brees and the Saints could hit the over on their own.

The Saints giving up less than a touchdown and the over are great options for Sunday.


Game: Baltimore at Pittsburgh

When: Sunday, Nov. 18 at 8:30 p.m. ET

Over/Under: 40.5

Spread: Ravens -3.5

Moneyline: Steelers +155, Ravens -175

Score Prediction: Baltimore 27, Steelers 14

I was interested to see how this line would fall with Ben Roethlisberger out on Sunday night. I expected a bit more of a spread, as Roethlisberger is a huge part of the Steeler offense. 

Steelers have officially ruled out QB Ben Roethlisberger, S Troy Polamalu, WR Antonio Brown and T Marcus Gilbert.

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 16, 2012

This game could get ugly. The Ravens have given up a lot of rushing yards this season, but they'll be able to commit an extra man to the run with Byron Leftwich at quarterback. He doesn't look off receivers well and his slow delivery gives defenders time to close.

The Ravens defense is also dealing with injuries, but they are strong enough to keep Pittsburgh's trio of runners from going gangbusters. 


Game: Indianapolis at New England

When: Sunday, Nov. 18 at 4:25 p.m.

Over/Under: 54

Spread: Patriots -9

Moneyline: Colts +350, Patriots -500

Score Prediction: New England 48, Indianapolis 34

This isn't my favorite game of the week, but for someone that's courageous it is a great game to consider. The Colts and the points are hard to overlook, but this is also a game Indianapolis could win.

I see this game hitting the over, which would be a good hedge bet with the Colts on the moneyline. 


Darin Pike is a writer for Bleacher Report's Breaking News Team and a Featured Columnist covering the NFL and the Seattle Seahawks.


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