Under Ryan Tannehill, the Miami Dolphins offense will break out in a big way against a terrible Tennessee Titans defense. Tennessee has one of the worst pass defenses in the league, 27th, allowing 273.4 yards per game.
Tannehill has continued to improve, and he hasn't turned the ball over since Week 4 against the Arizona Cardinals.
Bleacher Report's AFC East blogger Erik Frenz thought Tannehill would be a great start in fantasy football:
If I had Tannehill in any fantasy leagues, I'd start him this wk. Titans: 108.4 defensive passer rating (32nd), 8 YPA (27th). Could get ugly— Erik Frenz (@ErikFrenz) November 8, 2012
If Tannehill is to have a great day against the Titans, Brian Hartline may be the main beneficiary. Jabar Gaffney could thrive as well after having more time to get acquainted with the rookie signal-caller.
Against Indianapolis (Gaffney's first game with Tannehill at quarterback), Gaffney had one major drop in the red zone (Miami hit a field goal, only to lose by three points).
As bad as the Titans pass defense is, their run defense is worse. It is ranked 30th in the NFL, allowing 141.6 yards per game. The Dolphins will have their options as to how to attack the Titans, a luxury they haven't had against a team all season.
Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas will likely split their carries again, but they should both be productive in this game. I normally suggest running the ball at least 20 times, but in this game, most of the carries should come once the game is locked up.
For the first time all season, Miami will be favored by more than three points. Some spreads (5dimes.eu) have the Dolphins as seven-point favorites, according to Yahoo! Sports.
The spread is such due to Miami’s tough defense against the run and the Titans' 32nd-ranked point differential (minus-126).
At 3-6, this shows that when the Titans lose, they lose big, as pointed out by Dave Hyde of the Sun-Sentinel:
Titans are league-worst minus-126 in pt differential (only 2 others under minus-70). Message for Dolphins: When Titans get down, they quit— Dave Hyde (@davehydesports) November 8, 2012
This is what we will see on Sunday. Miami will go up big early through the air, and its defense and running game will close the Titans out.
Miami 35, Tennessee 14