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MLB Trade Market: Each Team's Chance of Making a Big Deal

Robert KnapelCorrespondent IJune 24, 2016

MLB Trade Market: Each Team's Chance of Making a Big Deal

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    As MLB teams look to improve this offseason, many will turn to the free agent market. Others will look to address their issues through trades.

    By making a big trade, teams can fill multiple holes at once while also not spending a ton of cash. There are certainly advantages to this, but some teams may not be willing to give up their top prospects in a possible deal.

    Other teams that have been considering offers or are looking to sell high on one of their players will be  much more likely to pull the trigger on a trade.

    Here's a look at each team's willingness to deal this winter.

Arizona Diamondbacks

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    Justin Upton is a tremendous talent and has shown the Arizona Diamondbacks exactly what he can do over the past few years. However, the team is considering trading him.

    Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic has spoken with several general managers who believe that the Diamondbacks can get a big return for Upton. Since he is a perennial 20/20 threat, that makes sense.

    Chance: 50 percent

Atlanta Braves

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    It seems as if the Braves will look to make most of their acquisitions this winter via the trade market. Michael Bourn could be a major part of any deal.

    If the Braves do decide to make a deal, they have some other pieces to trade. Pitcher Julio Teheran could be a centerpiece of a deal, but it is much more likely that the Braves will hold on to him and their other prospects.

    Chance: Five percent

Baltimore Orioles

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    With the Baltimore Orioles surprising success this season, they will certainly look for a way to make sure they can continue their winning ways in 2013.

    Baltimore will likely look at a number of free agents this winter, but they could consider making a trade or two. A big acquisition could help keep the Orioles near the top of the American League East next season.

    Chance: 20 percent

Boston Red Sox

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    By trading away Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett, the Boston Red Sox freed up a lot of money. They will be looking for somewhere to spend it next season.

    That could mean that they trade for a big-name player. However, they could also deal one. Jacoby Ellsbury has been mentioned as a trade candidate by Buster Olney of ESPN, but his price would be very high (via Kirk Minihane of WEEI).

    Chance: Five percent

Chicago Cubs

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    Could this winter finally be the one when the Chicago Cubs trade away Alfonso Soriano? He has eclipsed the 30-home run and 100-RBI marks this season, so his value has certainly risen.

    Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has written that the Cubs will be looking to deal Soriano this winter.

    Chance: 25 percent

Chicago White Sox

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    General manager Kenny Williams has done an outstanding job of building the Chicago White Sox into an American League pennant contender in 2012. He will look to make sure the franchise remains in a similar position next year.

    He will need to make a number of decisions regarding player options. But once those are settled, he can consider making other moves. But given the state of their farm system, according to csnchicago.com, it seems more likely that will go after free agents rather than make any major trades.

    Chances: Five percent

Cincinnati Reds

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    Given the  success the Reds have enjoyed this season, it would not be surprising if they only made minor changes this winter. They are a team that is built to win for a while.

    The Reds will likely rely on free agents to fill any holes they may have.

    Chance: Two percent

Cleveland Indians

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    Even though he is not eligible to become a free agent until 2014, there is a chance that Shin-Soo Choo will play his last game in an Indians uniform this season.

    Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer noted that there was interest in Choo earlier this year. Cleveland may actually deal him this winter, depending on what it could get in return.

    Chance: 33 percent

Colorado Rockies

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    The Rockies pitching staff was a bit of a mess this season. They will certainly be looking to improve their rotation this winter.

    Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post does not believe that their will be help coming via the free-agent market. This means that the Rockies could look to swing a deal or two.

    Chance: Five percent

Detroit Tigers

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    The Tigers' offseason moves will likely depend on whether they make the postseason and how far they advance if they do. If Detroit is not in the playoffs, it could look to make a few moves this winter.

    Detroit has one of the best lineups in baseball, so it is hard to see them making any major deals. However, they could be big players in the free agent market.

    Chance: Eight percent

Houston Astros

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    Prior to the July 31st trade deadline, the Astros were considering trading away Jed Lowrie, according to Danny Knobler of CBSsports.com). Houston could look into dealing him again this winter.

    The Astros will be continuing the rebuilding process next year, and if dealing Lowrie would get them several players who can help, he may be moved.

    Chance: 15 percent

Kansas City Royals

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    Jeff Francoeur is keeping Wil Myers from moving up to the major leagues. The Royals are going to need to find a spot for the young slugger next year, which means Francoeur could be on his way out.

    Dealing Francoeur would not be considered a big move, but he could be the biggest name the Royals move this winter.

    Chance: 25 percent

Los Angeles Angels

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    Even after signing free agents Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson this past winter, the Los Angeles Angels are  on the cusp of missing out on the postseason. That could necessitate more changes.

    The Angels have a number of outfielders, and Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times believes that the team could look to trade Vernon Wells for pitcher John Lackey this winter.

    Chance: 15 percent

Los Angeles Dodgers

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    After a number of big trade acquisitions this summer, the Dodgers farm system is running a little bit low on top prospects.

    Even though they do have a few such players left, such as Zach Lee, the Dodgers will likely focus most of their attention on some of the biggest names in free agency this winter, such as Zack Greinke (h/t Buster Olney of ESPN).

    Chance: Five percent

Miami Marlins

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    Following their tumultuous 2012 season, the Marlins will be looking to trim payroll, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.

    This means that players with big contracts such as Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle could be trade bait. It seems the Marlins would be willing to deal Bell to anyone who is willing to take on most of his salary.

    Chance: 20 percent

Milwaukee Brewers

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    Corey Hart has been outstanding and a key part of the franchise since joining the Brewers. That makes him very desirable to other teams.

    Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe notes that the Boston Red Sox could be interested in Hart. But it seems that such as deal would be very unlikely.

    Chance: Five percent

Minnesota Twins

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    The Twins were not able to draw any interest when they put Joe Mauer on waivers this winter. There are likely two reasons for this: he has a huge contract and a full no-trade clause (h/t Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports).

    Bleacher Report's Ian Casselberry believes that placing Mauer on waivers could signal that the Twins are open to trading him in a blockbuster deal this winter.

    Chance: 15 percent

New York Mets

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    After another disappointing season, the Mets could make big changes.

    Ike Davis might be on the trade market and could net the Mets a big return. And according to Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger, Jon Niese is another player who could be dealt as the Mets look to rebuild.

    Chance: 50 percent

New York Yankees

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    During the long baseball winters, the Yankees always seem to be in the running for the top free agents on the market. That should not change this year.

    The Yankees asked about Justin Upton, Shane Victorino and Denard Span this summer, according to Jon Heyman of CBSsports.com. Don't be surprised if they go after at least one of those outfielders this winter.

    Chance: 20 percent

Oakland Athletics

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    After putting together an outstanding season in 2012, the Oakland Athletics still may need to address some issues this offseason.

    If they choose not to pick up Stephen Drew's option, the Athletics may need a shortstop. They could also look for a third baseman. These players are more likely to come via free agency than in a trade.

    Chance: Five percent

Philadelphia Phillies

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    There is a chance that Cliff Lee will be the best player available on the trade market this winter. Danny Knobler of CBSsports.com believes that the Phillies could shop him around.

    Dealing a player of Lee's caliber is never easy but it could give the Phillies the pieces they need to contend in 2013.

    Chance: 15 percent

Pittsburgh Pirates

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    While things have been getting better in Pittsburgh the last two years, the Pirates have not gotten back to the postseason. They could look to pick up a player this winter that could help get them there.

    Jayson Stark of ESPN reported this summer that the Pirates were in serious pursuit of Justin Upton. While they did not acquire him, the Pirates could go after Upton once again this winter.

    Chance: 15 percent

San Diego Padres

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    Chase Headley has finally had the breakout season that the Padres and their fans had anticipated. And teams outside of San Diego have certainly taken notice.

    At the moment, it appears that the Padres do not want to trade Headley this winter (h/t Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports). However, that can all change once teams start making serious offers for him.

    Chance: 10 percent

San Francisco Giants

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    The outfield seems to be the biggest area of concern for the Giants heading into the winter. Early reports seem to indicate that they will try to sign a free agent to fix their problems.

    Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com sees the Giants as a possible fit for Shane Victorino. After speaking with some executives, Buster Olney of ESPN believes that Josh Hamilton could end up in the Bay Area.

    If either of these players signs with the Giants, it is highly unlikely that they will make a big trade.

    Chance: Five percent

Seattle Mariners

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    One of the big goals this summer for the Mariners was to acquire a young, cost-controlled hitter, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. This led the team to be in hot pursuit of Brandon Belt, according to Dave Cameron of FanGraphs).

    While the Mariners did end up with Eric Thames this summer, he does not exactly fill that need. Seattle could once again look at the young hitters on the market and try to make a move.

    Chance: 25 percent

St. Louis Cardinals

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    The Cardinals have a number of players who they can promote from within the organization to fill any holes that they have. Kolten Wong may be ready to take over at second base, and Shelby Miller could break camp as a member of the starting rotation.

    So the Cardinals may not have a busy offseason, although they could look for bullpen help.

    Chance: One percent

Tampa Bay Rays

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    There is a belief in baseball that the Rays could trade David Price this winter, according to Buster Olney of ESPN (Insider required). It seems hard to believe that the Rays would trade someone of his talent level.

    If the Rays do look into trading Price, they could contact the Texas Rangers about a deal centered around young shortstop Elvis Andrus, which would be beneficial to both teams.

    Chance: Five percent

Texas Rangers

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    This offseason will not be easy for the Rangers. They will need to figure out if they want to re-sign Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli. They also will have a decision to make about Elvis Andrus.

    With Jurickson Profar ready for the majors, Andrus could become expendable. Jon Heyman of CBSsports.com does not believe that is the case. He thinks Andrus will stay in Texas.

    Chance: 20 percent

Toronto Blue Jays

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    Earlier this year, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that the Toronto Blue Jays would not trade catchers J.P.  Arencibia or Travis D'Arnuad during the season. With D'Arnaud looking ready for the majors, the Blue Jays are going to have to make a decision.

    They can trade Arencibia and get a few players who can help them challenge the Yankees, Rays and Orioles in 2013, or they can hold onto him and try to fit both players into their lineup.

    Chance: 25 percent

Washington Nationals

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    Even though the Nationals have a full outfield with Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper and Mike Morse, the team might go after Michael Bourn this winter, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.

    Stark also goes on to say that the Nationals could trade Morse if they sign Bourn. In return, Washington might look for a pitcher who could replace Edwin Jackson in the starting rotation.

    Chance: 10 percent

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