Andrew Luck: Predicting Colts Rookie Sensation's Fantasy Numbers vs. Jaguars

Donald Wood@@Donald_WoodFeatured ColumnistSeptember 23, 2012

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - SEPTEMBER 16:  Andrew Luck #12 of the Indianapolis Colts throws the ball during the NFL game against the Minnesota Vikings at Lucas Oil Stadium on September 16, 2012 in Indianapolis, Indiana.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The Indianapolis Colts made the right move drafting Andrew Luck No. 1 overall in the 2012 NFL draft, and fantasy owners were right taking a late-round flyer on the rookie in your fantasy leagues.

With a great matchup against a very beatable Jacksonville Jaguars secondary, the fantasy risk you took will pay off handsomely as the Colts’ quarterback will pick apart his opponent and win you a Week 3 fantasy matchup.

While it could be hard to start Luck over your No. 1 quarterback, this kind of matchup is exactly what the rookie needs to break out for his first big statistical game. You don’t want that on your bench!


Final Stat Line

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been terrible so far in 2012, but their defense is still a tough unit that can be dangerous when underestimated. With this being a division battle, Luck can’t take the Jaguars lightly.

Luck will have to contend with a secondary giving up the 16th most passing yards per game (230.5), but he will pass that mark and finish closer to 300 yards on the day.

With reliable receivers in Reggie Wayne and Donnie Avery on the outside and rookie tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen carving up the seam, Luck will find his rhythm early and have the Jaguars on their heels all day.

Final Stat Line: 23-of-30 for 306 yards and three touchdowns


Start ‘em, Sit ‘em

If you have Andrew Luck on your fantasy team, he is likely the backup to another QB; most did not draft the rookie with the intention of him starting every week.

While it is customary to ride with the starting quarterback you took early in the fantasy draft, if your No. 1 isn’t Tom Brady, Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers, you should consider putting Luck in this week.

As tough as the Jaguars defense has been, they don’t have the depth to stop all the offensive weapons they boast in Indianapolis. Luck will have a big day.

There is no doubt that there will be growing pains in Indianapolis, but if the offensive line can protect the young QB, Luck will dominate this week and continue to become one of the league’s elite players.

If Luck is still on waivers or becomes available in a cheap trade, it is worth the long-term investment acquiring him.

Final Ruling: Start 'em


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