AL MVP Rankings: Has Miguel Cabrera Caught Mike Trout Yet?

Jun 7, 2018

When it comes to the American League MVP race, there are many fine candidates to discuss.

We can talk about Josh Hamilton, who is leading baseball in home runs and tied for the lead in RBI despite the fact he was in a bad slump for over two months.

We can talk about fellow Texas Rangers star Adrian Beltre, who has been on fire at the plate over the last month of the season and could end up winning his fourth Gold Glove when all is said and done.

We can talk about Robinson Cano, who is in the middle of perhaps the finest season of his career. Others prefer to talk about Derek Jeter, who is hitting .323 with an MLB-high 199 hits.

But really, the AL MVP race comes down to two players: Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera and Los Angeles Angels super-rookie Mike Trout.

Tigers fans are getting tired of the general obsession people have with Trout. They think Cabrera is the MVP this year; no questions asked.

Tigers manager Jim Leyland thinks so, too. He said this weekend, via the Detroit Free Press, that “it would blow my mind" if Cabrera didn't win the MVP this year.

The timing is right to hop on the Cabrera bandwagon. He's having an excellent month of September so far, posting a 1.080 OPS and hitting five home runs.

But has he caught up to Trout yet? Has baseball's best hitter overtaken baseball's best rookie in the AL MVP race?

Good question. This week's AL MVP rankings will answer it.

Note: All stats come from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

5. Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas Rangers

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Last Week: No. 5

We're at a point now where Josh Hamilton's prolonged slump from earlier this season is nothing more than a bad memory.

Hamilton has hit 13 home runs and driven in 39 runs since the beginning of August, posting a .598 slugging percentage in the process. He stands alone atop the major-league leaderboard in home runs with 42, and he and Miguel Cabrera are tied for the MLB lead in RBI with 123.

So why isn't Hamilton higher on this list?

Well, for starters, he's been a little all-or-nothing over the last couple weeks. Hamilton is hitting home runs and driving in runs, but he's only a .287 hitter since the Aug. 1 and a .235 hitter in September. The ball goes far when he makes contact, but making contact is still something he's having trouble with. He's struck out over 26 percent of the time he's come to the plate since Aug. 1.

There's also the reality that Hamilton hasn't had the same impact on defense as he's had in years past. FanGraphs has his UZR in the outfield at minus-6.5, and his DRS (defensive runs saved) at minus-3. Hamilton has been competent on defense, but not necessarily an asset.

Hamilton's defensive issues are a big reason why his WAR checks in at a surprisingly low 4.8, according to FanGraphs. That barely places him ahead of Alex Gordon, and it places him just behind Ben Zobrist.

Hamilton deserves to be in the MVP discussion anyway, because one assumes his WAR would be a lot higher if he hadn't been in a brutal slump from the middle of May to the end of July. Plus, it helps that he's hitting well now when every game counts.

Hamilton likely won't win the MVP, but I'd say a top-five finish in the voting is a virtual lock.

4. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees

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Last Week: No. 3

A lot of people think Derek Jeter is the MVP of the Yankees, and maybe even the MVP of the American League in general.

I couldn't disagree more. Cano is statistically superior to Jeter in just about every way. In fact, it's really not close.

Jeter is hitting .323 with an MLB-best 199 hits, sure, but his weighted on-base average is a mere .353, according to FanGraphs. Among the players who have technically been more productive offensively than Jeter this season are Torii Hunter, Shin-Soo Choo and even Alex Rodriguez.

Cano's wOBA, meanwhile, checks in at .384, which ties him for sixth in the American League with Adrian Beltre.

It makes sense if you think about it. Jeter has a higher batting average than Cano, but Cano has him beat in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage. In fact, his .540 slugging percentage is nearly 100 points higher than Jeter's .444 slugging percentage. It helps, obviously, that Cano has twice as many home runs as Jeter.

Cano isn't just an offensive stud, either. Per FanGraphs, he leads all American League second basemen with a DRS of plus-14, and he ranks right up there with Dustin Ackley and Dustin Pedroia in terms of UZR. It wouldn't be a huge shock if Cano ended up winning his second Gold Glove Award this year.

It all adds up to a WAR of 6.3. The only AL player with a higher WAR than Cano is Mike Trout.

As such, there's a case to be made that Cano should be all the way up at No. 2 in these rankings. He's not simply because he's been a little inconsistent since the All-Star break when the Yankees have needed his usual production more than ever. He went into the break with a .953 OPS, and he has an .848 OPS ever since.

Cano is coming off a rough week, too, as he hit just .190 with a .775 OPS in his last six games. This rough patch allowed the next guy on this list to leapfrog Cano in the rankings.

3. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers

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Last Week: No. 4

Over the last month, no player in the American League has been better than Adrian Beltre.

This is not an opinion. It is a fact.

Over the last 30 days, Beltre has compiled a .380/.422/.880 triple-slash line with 14 home runs and 25 RBI in a total of 28 games. Of the 41 hits he's collected in his last 108 at-bats, over half of them have gone for extra bases.

Which, you know, is sort of ridiculous.

Per FanGraphs, Beltre's wOBA over the last 30 days is .531(!). His weighted runs created plus (wRC+) over the last 30 days is 240(!!!). His WAR over the last 30 days is 2.6(!!!!!!!!!!!).

The word "hot" doesn't even come close. Beltre is hot enough right now to have a system of planets revolving around him.

But as I've pointed out in each of the last few weeks, it's not like Beltre was having a poor season before he caught fire. He was hitting .303/.341/.482 when he started this hot stretch of his, and he was providing the Rangers with characteristically excellent defense at third base.

So don't be surprised to learn that Beltre's WAR is at 5.9, according to FanGraphs. That's good for fourth in the American League.

He may not be the front-runner for the MVP award, but Beltre is clearly the best player on the American League's best team.

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2. Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Detroit Tigers

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Last Week: No. 2

Well, here's your answer. I'd say there's quite a bit of distance between Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Beltre in the AL MVP race, but Cabrera hasn't quite caught up to Trout just yet.

Before I explain why, let's all stop and appreciate what Cabrera has been able to do this season. Even for him, he's having a truly excellent year.

To start things off, Cabrera finally managed to take the lead over Mike Trout in the race for the AL batting title on Sunday. Cabrera is hitting an even .330, while Trout is hitting .329.

Cabrera has nearly caught him in on-base percentage as well. Cabrera's .394 OBP is just two points behind Trout's .396 OBP.

Cabrera has already long since passed Trout in slugging percentage, as he now leads Trout .598 to .562. Cabrera leads the AL in that category, and he also leads in OPS at .992.

All of this was inevitable, mind you. Cabrera is always good at the plate, but he's been an absolute machine ever since the calendar turned to July. He posted a 1.086 OPS in July, a 1.092 OPS in August and he has a 1.080 OPS thus far in September.

To boot, Cabrera is fresh off an exceptionally strong week in which he hit .407 with three home runs in six games. He's made it clear that he's not about to go away when the Tigers need him most.

The fact that the Tigers began Monday with a two-game deficit in the AL Central goes to show that there's only so much Cabrera can do. And since his chances of winning the MVP are largely contingent on the Tigers making the playoffs, it will be very hard to justify handing him the MVP if things stay the way they are until the end of the season.

Mike Trout, on the other hand, is not quite in the same boat as Cabrera. I'll explain on the next slide.

1. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

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Last Week: No. 1

Yes, it's true. Mike Trout has hit a bit of a wall in the last few weeks. He's only hitting .286 with an .842 OPS since the first of August, and he's hitting .288 with a .797 OPS in September.

That these numbers are worthy of criticism goes to show just how good of a season Trout is having. This "cold" streak he's on is a hot streak for many other hitters around the league.

And even despite his "cold" streak, Trout still ranks second in the AL in batting average at .329, third in OBP at .396 and fourth in slugging at .562. He still leads the AL in runs scored and stolen bases.

Per FanGraphs, Trout also still leads the AL in wOBA at .421 and in wRC+ at 174. His WAR of 9.3 is the best in baseball, and it dwarfs Cabrera's 6.2 WAR.

So technically, Trout has been worth three more wins than Cabrera this season despite the fact he didn't even break into the majors until late April. It's worth noting, of course, that Trout's Angels have three more wins than Cabrera's Tigers.

It's therefore next to impossible to justify ranking Cabrera ahead of Trout for the time being. Trout is a much more valuable player, and his Angels are a better team than Cabrera's Tigers.

In case you're still a little confused, Trout is so much more valuable than Cabrera for two key reasons.

One, he's a more dynamic offensive player. Cabrera has Trout beat in average and slugging, but Trout's speed and power combo allow him to create more runs all on his own.

Second, Trout is an elite defensive player. The highlight reels tell us as much, and so do the numbers. Per FanGraphs, Trout ranks second to Ichiro among AL outfielders with a 13.0 UZR, and he has an absurd plus-25 DRS.

But the biggest shocker of all? Trout ranks second in the AL to Adrian Beltre in WAR over the last 30 days even despite the fact it seems like he hasn't been having the same kind of impact that he was in May, June and July.

Nothing should be taken away from Cabrera. He's an excellent hitter, and he's playing very well now, when the pressure for him to perform is at its highest.

But he's not the most valuable player in the American League. Trout is, and that's probably not going to change in the last few weeks of the season.