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Fantasy Baseball: Breakdown of AccuScore's Rest-of-Year Home Run Projections

White Sox slugger Adam Dunn (31 HR, 74 RBI, .205 BA) has one homer for every 15.2 at-bats since July 8, compared to a seasonal rate of 1/12.26.
White Sox slugger Adam Dunn (31 HR, 74 RBI, .205 BA) has one homer for every 15.2 at-bats since July 8, compared to a seasonal rate of 1/12.26.Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Jay ClemonsFantasy Sports Lead WriterJune 29, 2015

With the fantasy trade deadlines coming up this week and next (I have four red-letter dates this Friday), it's time for owners to make one last pitch for baseball's elite categorical contributors.

AccuScore, a company that specializes in thorough game simulations, has made a few on-the-fly revisions to its seasonal projections.

These 46 hitters, based on AccuScore projections (not mine), will register at least nine home runs from this point forward (Aug. 7-Sept. 30):

Part I
1. Adam Dunn, White Sox—14
2. Ryan Braun, Brewers—13
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers—13
4. Curtis Granderson, Yankees—12
5. Anthony Rizzo, Cubs—12
6. Josh Hamilton, Rangers—12
7. Albert Pujols, Angels—12
8. Mark Trumbo, Angels—12
9. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays—12
10. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays—12
11. Matt Kemp, Dodgers—11
12. Mark Teixeira, Yankees—11
13. Paul Konerko, White Sox—11
14. Josh Willingham, Twins—11
15. Corey Hart, Brewers—11
16. Prince Fielder, Tigers—11
17. Mike Trout, Angels—10
18. David Ortiz, Red Sox—10
19. Robinson Cano, Yankees—10
20. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins—10
21. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies—10
22. Jay Bruce, Reds—10
23. Adam LaRoche, Nationals—10

Part II
24. Trevor Plouffe, Twins—10
25. Nelson Cruz, Rangers—10
26. Adrian Beltre, Rangers—10
27. Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics—10
28. Adam Jones, Orioles—9
29. Kevin Youkilis, White Sox—9
30. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates—9
31. Mike Napoli, Rangers—9
32. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates—9
33. Dan Uggla, Braves—9
34. Mark Reynolds, Orioles—9
35. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs—9
36. Ryan Howard, Phillies—9
37. Josh Reddick, Athletics—9
38. Will Middlebrooks, Red Sox—9
39. Michael Morse, Nationals—9
40. Aramis Ramirez, Brewers—9
41. Matt Holliday, Cardinals—9
42. Carlos Quentin, Padres—9
43. Nick Swisher, Yankees—9
44. Joey Votto, Reds—9
45. Carlos Beltran, Cardinals—9
46. Brandon Moss, Athletics—9
 

 

Breakdown

  • The prediction that immediately stands out is Anthony Rizzo (9 HR, 23 RBI, .301 BA) clubbing 12 homers from this point forward. To date, he's averaging one homer for every 14.78 at-bats. Extrapolating that figure over another 49 games (sitting out six) with four daily at-bats (conservative estimate), that's another 196 at-bats for the season...or 13.26 home runs. AccuScore's right in that ballpark.

  • I'll reluctantly buy the "under" on Adam Dunn's prediction of 14 homers from this point forward. For the season, Dunn (31 HR, 74 RBI, .205 BA) has a sterling trend of one homer for every 12.26 at-bats. But in the last 30 days, Dunn's rate has regressed to one homer for every 15.2 at-bats.

  • Noticeably absent from this list: David Wright, Evan Longoria, Chris Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Lind, Alex Rios, Ryan Zimmerman, Startling Marte, Ian Kinsler, Jason Kubel, Ike Davis, Brian McCann, Carlos Pena, Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, Shin-Soo Choo, Justin Morneau, Hunter Pence, Dayan Viciedo, Jason Heyward and Alex Gordon.

  • I've seen approximately 12 of Paul Goldschmidt's 16 homers on live TV this season, via MLB Extra Innings. And that somehow led me to believe Goldy was belting bombs at a more prodigious rate than one homer per 21 at-bats (seasonal)...or one homer for every 16.1 at-bats (minus a shaky April). If he maintains that May-August pace, he'll clear double digits.

 

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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