First, I looked at the Hall of Fame and determined that it may not be inducting enough players, compared to years past. Anywhere from 40 to even as high as 90 active players at any one time may be Hall of Fame-worthy, going by past standards. So, I looked at the active players in 2006 to come up with a list of (40 to) 80 players who fit the bill as most likely future Hall of Famers.
As stated in the last article, starting with 2006 was three-fold; it let me examine the up-coming Hall ballots while lowering the amount of guesswork needed in projecting players, and it gave me a start on looking at this year’s players. If you have any questions on why I put a player somewhere and there’s nothing present here, go check to 2006 articles.
Going by the numbers for 2011 (since 2012 hasn’t finished yet), if 37 players active today (the average number from 1901 to 1982) eventually make the Hall of Fame, it would represent 2.882% of all active players, easily the lowest mark in the history, even dating back to the founding of the National League in 1876. The following number of electees would represent these percentages:
6.643% (average from 1901 to 1982): 85