Fantasy Baseball: Breakdown of AccuScore's Rest-of-Season Home Run Projections

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Fantasy Baseball: Breakdown of AccuScore's Rest-of-Season Home Run Projections
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Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista (25 homers, 58 RBI) has a realistic chance of cracking 50 homers for the second time in three seasons.

AccuScore, a company that specializes in thorough game simulations, has made a few on-the-fly revisions to its seasonal projections.

These 40 power hitters, based on AccuScore projections (not mine), will belt at least 14 home runs from this point forward (June 28-Sept. 30):

1. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays—25
2. Curtis Granderson, Yankees—20
3. Adam Dunn, White Sox—19
4. Josh Hamilton, Rangers—19
5. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays—18
6. Albert Pujols, Angels—18
7. Ryan Braun, Brewers—18
8. David Ortiz, Red Sox—18
9. Mark Teixreira, Yankees—18
10. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers—18
11. Paul Konerko, White Sox—17
12. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies—17
13. Mark Trumbo, Angels—17
14. Robinson Cano, Yankees—17
15. Jay Bruce, Reds—17

 

Breakdown

It would be awesome if Jose Bautista cracked 50 homers for the second time in three seasons. As stated in the "Top 30 Outfielders From This Point Forward," he's a comfortable lock for 45 to 48 homers—but 50 might be a tad ambitious. That aside, he's still my odds-on choice to capture the MLB Home Run title.

I'll buy Adam Dunn for 19 more homers, although I'm getting more exasperated by his declining marks in batting average (.216) and on-base percentage (.357) by the day. For a guy who's on pace to draw 123 walks this season (career high: 128), you'd think Dunn's above-average plate discipline would lead to a higher batting average. But that's not the case. Obviously, the .357 OBP is admirable—if it stays that way through September.

In his first nine MLB seasons, Mark Teixeira has per-month averages of 5.88 homers (July), 7.11 homers (August) and 6.44 homers (September). Put it all together, and that's roughly 19.4 homers. So, AccuScore seems to be on track with Tex's projection.

It's not a shock that Carlos Gonzalez leads the Troy Tulowitzki-less Rockies in runs, hits, homers, RBI, batting average, OBP, OPS and steals (tied with Eric Young Jr.). But the separation between CarGo and the runner-up in each category (excluding steals) is quite profound.

Gonzo's latest craze: His 30-day run of seven homers, 17 RBI, 16 runs and .379 batting is actually the midpoint of a prodigious hitting bubble that captivated fantasy owners a few weeks ago.

 

16. Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics—16
17. Joey Votto, Reds—16
18. Prince Fielder, Tigers—16
19. Trevor Plouffe, Twins—16
20. Corey Hart, Brewers—16
21. Will Middlebrooks, Red Sox—16
22. Brandon Moss, Athletics—16
23. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins—15
24. Mark Reynolds, Orioles—15
25. Josh Willingham, Twins—15
26. Dan Uggla, Braves—15
27. Adam Jones, Orioles—15
28. Adrian Beltre, Rangers—15
29. Nick Swisher, Yankees—15
30. Matt Kemp, Dodgers—15
31. Nelson Cruz, Rangers—15
32. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees—15
33. Carlos Beltran, Cardinals—15
34. Carlos Quentin, Padres—15
35. Adam LaRoche, Nationals—15
36. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs—14
37. Mike Napoli, Rangers—14
38. Matt Holliday, Cardinals—14
39. Evan Longoria, Rays—14
40. Carlos Pena, Rays—14

 

Breakdown

Not to be a Debbie Downer here, but 28-year-old Brandon Moss had 15 career homers before his seven-dinger explosion occurred with the A's (June 7-20). Couple that with a .222 batting average, and I'm willing to bet everything I own that Moss doesn't belt 16 homers from the June 28-Sept. 30 window. It goes without saying: Minor league homers don't count.

I'll be in Vegas two weeks from today (SI.com golf guru Jeff Ritter's bachelor party); but if I were there right now, I'd bet the 'under' on Trevor Plouffe stroking 16 more homers (31 for the MLB season). He's a good-looking hitter and an interesting long-term asset for the Twins, but 16 homers from June 28-Sept. 30 simply won't happen.

I'll buy the 'over' for both Joey Votto (16 homers) and Giancarlo Stanton (15 homers) from this point forward. At the very least, I feel secure about both players earning 'push' status on this bet.

Regarding Stanton, there is no sweeter sight than this Miami marvel raking homers at every fair-territory nook of the Marlins' new stadium. Just hearken back to his off-the-charts production in May (12 homers, 30 RBI, 23 runs, .343 batting. 1.198 OPS), a run of statistical awesomeness that few outfielders could duplicate under the most optimum of conditions.

Noticeably absent from this list: Mike Trout, Adrian Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Andrew McCutchen, Colby Rasmus, Aramis Ramirez.

Remember that great scene from Jurassic Park, where the kids learn of the dinosaurs' arrival, based on the ripple movement of a water glass? Well, AccuScore is trumpeting the re-emergence of Evan Longoria in a similar fashion. 

That said, 14 homers for a guy who may or may not have incurred an injury setback (torn hamstring rehab) on June 19 is a bold move. But then again, Longo (117 homers in four-plus seasons) still has plenty of time to fulfill AccuScore's prophecy.

 

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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