The last two days I've opened all my AFC South draft strategy pieces with a quote I love.
"All this has happened before, all this will happen again."
There's one big problem when using it to describe the Indianapolis Colts' draft strategy: none of this has happened before.
With a new coach and a new general manager in place, there is simply no road map to tell us where the Colts are headed. General Manager Ryan Grigson has never run a draft before. Chuck Pagano has never been a head coach before. Beyond Andrew Luck, we have no idea what the Colts are going to do.
The second pick of the second round will tell us a lot about the future direction of the Colts. Pagano has spoken at length about his desire to "run the ball and stop the run." Grigson has waxed poetic about taking the "best available player."
Other than cliches, we have very little to go on when it comes to the Colts.
The second round could serve as a bellwether for the future of the team. Whether or not Coby Fleener is available, there should be some talented receivers left for the Colts. However, if the new regime decides to go with defense, it will signal a marked change of direction for a franchise known for high-flying offense.
It's hard to argue with any kind of defensive upgrade for the Colts. They need a nose-tackle. They need a safety. They need corners. The only move that should chill the hearts of Colts fans would be if the team drafts an offensive lineman in the first three rounds. Should the Colts seek to build up the team with non-skill players, they risk going down the same shaky path that the Jaguars have already worn out.
In the end it might not matter. The last time Indianapolis selected first overall, they didn't get much out of the rest of the draft. If Luck is who we think he is, he'll make all the difference.
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