10 Controversial Truths About the 2012 NFL Draft

1. Ryan Tannehill Is Worth a Top-10 Pick

I said my piece about it here. As Lance Zierlein put it, "One of biggest disconnects between public and teams is that teams project based on traits while public only sees stats/wins." QB scouting is based on projecting more than any other position, like looking at an embryo and extrapolating what the child will look like. Tannehill shows enough to be considered a potential franchise QB, which makes him easily worth a top-10 pick to a QB needy team, even if he doesn't go that high.

2. Justin Blackmon Could Fall Out of the Top 10 and Behind Michael Floyd

I also said a piece on this here. Dane Brugler of CBSSports, one of the best draftniks in the biz, agrees in his latest mock. Blackmon isn't the kind of receiver that teams usually invest a top-10 pick in—Floyd's size/speed package is. Blackmon has been in the top six of mocks for months, but it's not a lock that he's there in the real thing.

3. Fletcher Cox Is More Freakishly Talented Than Dontari Poe and Michael Brockers

Michael Brockers got the pre-combine hype. Dontari Poe got the post-combine hype. Fletcher Cox is the real freak in the DT group. A 4.79 40 and 7.07 three-cone doesn't sound that impressive until you factor in that Cox is 6'4", 298 lbs. Chris Polk, a top-rated RB, had a slower three-cone time. Cox's 30 bench press reps don't sound that impressive until you factor in that he has 34.5" arms, which is ideal DE/LT length. Cox deserves to go number six to the Rams in my estimation, and anything outside of the top 10 is a steal.

4. Stephon Gilmore Could Go in the Top 15

Gilmore is one of the elite athletes in the corner class, and while his game has holes, it has improved markedly enough to project him as a possible elite NFL corner. He wasn't on some first-round lists in January, but folks need to get used him there now—possibly in the top half of the round.

5. Coby Fleener Is a First-Round Quality Talent

A 6'6", 250 pound TE with 4.5 speed and Fleener's natural receiving ability is a massive weapon in a league trending towards more weaponized tight ends. Don't be surprised if a team that doesn't have an obvious need at TE takes him (like San Francisco) in an attempt to mimic the Patriots successful two-TE approach.

6. Either Peter Konz or Mark Barron Appeals to Almost Every Team

Good luck projecting where these guys go. Strong safety is a weak position league-wide and Konz can play any of the three interior offensive line positions. To say with any certainty that there's a favorite for either one of these prospects is ignoring the reality that they are the best prospects at a low value, but high-need position.

7. There Is No Elite Pass Rush Prospect in This Draft

Quinton Coples has effort issues. Melvin Ingram has short arms. Courtney Upshaw isn't that sudden or explosive physically. Nick Perry is straight-linish. Whitney Mercilus lucked into some sacks and might be a one-year wonder. The ranking of these big boards could be very different across team-specific big boards. Anyone who claims that there is clarity in ranking these players across all schemes and philosophies is just wrong.

8. Luke Kuechly and David DeCastro Are Blue Chip Talents That Could Tumble

Kuechly and DeCastro are probably top-eight overall talents in this draft, but either could fall into the late teens because teams just don't put a big stress on inside linebacker and guard in their draft plans. It will be clear very quickly that they are among the 10 best players that will come out of this draft, and we will wonder why a team got them in the teens. It happens every year even though it is so predictably incorrect in hindsight.

9. The Value of Coverage Linebackers Could Get One into the First Round

Utah State's Bobby Wagner and Nebraska's Lavonte David aren't in many first-round mocks, but no one should be surprised if one or both of their names is called on the draft's first night. As new breed TEs (like Fleener) proliferate across the league, linebackers who can neutralize them in coverage will also gain importance. 

10. Amini Silatolu Will Be the First Player to Make Casual Fans Go "Who?"

I'll forgive you if you don't know where Midwestern State is on the map (Wichita Falls, Texas). As unlikely as it seems, this Division II program could produce a first-round pick this year. Amini Silatolu is maybe the nastiest offensive lineman in this draft, comparing favorably to Idaho's Mike Iupati, who went 17th overall to the San Francisco 49ers. If you don't believe it, just check out Silatolu's tape.