2012 NFL Draft 1st-Round Odds: Cleveland Browns

Once you get out of the top three, it becomes much more difficult to pin down a true favorite for picks. The Cleveland Browns are a challenging team to project because there are good argument for multiple prospects.

50% - Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama - The Browns sent their GM and head coach to his pro day. The Heckert/Holmgren regime seems to like safer picks in the first round, and Richardson is the safest pick left on the board. Running back is a massive hole on the team, although it's one they can address in the second round. That depth is why I can't put this number higher than 50%. No one should be surprised if Richardson is the pick, but no one should be surprised if he isn't.

30% - Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU - This pick might make more sense from a tactical standpoint, as it would give the Browns the best corner duo in the division, if not, the conference or league, assuming Claiborne plays up to his potential. The Heckert/Holmgren combo hit a home run when they used their inaugural first-rounder on an SEC shutdown corner—Joe Haden at No. 7 in 2010. No one would blame them for going back to the well.

17% - Trade Down - GM Tom Heckert has already said that the Browns could get a "really good player" as low as the eighth pick, and they showed their inclination to trade down out of a high draft pick last year. The question is whether anyone will pay the price to move up, and who would be worth it. Perhaps the Browns could spook the Dolphins into thinking that they will take Ryan Tannehill unless Miami trades up for the pick. The chances of trading down are low, but not for lack of trying by the Browns.

2% - Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M - I believe the Browns have zeroed in on Oklahoma State QB Brandon Weeden, but there's always a chance that they warm to Tannehill. A very small chance.

1% - Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State - The Browns need wide receivers in the worst way, but Blackmon just doesn't measure up like a top-five wide receiver, and he's too similar to Greg Little, a 2011 second-round pick. It's not impossible that the Browns take Blackmon out of need, but it's highly unlikely.