2012 NFL Draft: Why Alshon Jeffery Is Destined to Be a Bust

Alshon Jeffery is an amazing athlete but he is destined to be a major bust at the NFL level.

Before dwelling on why he will fail, let's look at why some NFL player evaluators drool over Jeffery.

He is the most physically imposing receiver in the draft. In fact, he may be the most physically imposing receiver I have ever seen. At 6'4" and 230 pounds of pure muscle, he is big and strong enough to barrel over defensive backs.  

Jeffery also has enormous hands that he uses to catch most balls thrown in his immediate vicinity. Combine that with his excellent vertical, and the wideout can simply win jump-balls.

Because of his incredible size, strength and catching ability, some NFL scouts see him as a prototypical No. 1 receiver.

But Jeffery lacks the speed, shiftiness, route-running and football IQ to succeed in the NFL.

Most of the NFL's best receivers lack one tool in the positional arsenal, whether it be speed, size, athleticism or football smarts. But to be a star receiver, a player cannot lack most of them. 

For example, Wes Welker is the NFL's most shifty, clever slot receiver; he has an exceptional football IQ and may be the best route runner in the league. So he gets by without incredible athleticism or advantageous height.  

Anquan Boldin lacks elite speed but he makes up for that with crisp route running, pure strength and the ability to gain significant yards after the catch.  

Randy Moss, who some NFL scouts have compared to the physically imposing, mercurial Jeffery, made his living with supernatural speed.

Even though Jeffery has an enormous build and impressive athletic ability, he is actually very slow for a top-end receiver. His 4.60 40 time is far too slow to make him a speed receiver and is even lower than the average route-running receiver's time.  

He also lacks burst at the line and isn't very shifty. So he will have serious trouble beating NFL defenders out of the gate and will find it almost impossible to get behind NFL corners on a regular basis. If he loses some weight, his 40 time could improve but it would likely be an incremental fix because you cannot teach speed.  

In college, Jeffery succeeded (at times, because his 2011 was terrible) by simply barreling over smaller defenders. But that strategy will not work in the NFL. As a result, Jeffery will have a difficult time becoming the elite, big-play, deep-threat receiver that his size would suggest he could become.

Jeffery does not possess the route-running ability to be a precision receiver like Marvin Harrison. A huge part of the reason he was terrible this season is that he routinely ran the wrong routes and was rarely in sync with the offense. This suggests either a lazy inability to learn the playbook or a lack of football IQ, which are both big problems in the NFL.

Jeffery may become an average route-runner over time, but if that is combined with subpar speed and limited ability to compile yards after the catch, can he succeed in professional football?

The bottom line is that Jeffery is an intriguing prospect because he is so tall, big and strong. But he doesn't have natural speed or football smarts, which will make it difficult for him to develop into the elite receiver he will need to become to justify his potential first-round draft status. So, if Jeffery is selected in Round 1, he seems destined to become a 2012 NFL draft bust.