The Wall Tim Tebow Is about to Run Into

Poor Tim Tebow.

Did he ask to be worshiped? Did he ask for the kind of hyperbolic expectations that his louder and more devout fans have? Did he ask to be thrown into the game a full two years before most scouts thought he'd be ready?

Okay, so some of you are already saying to yourself, "Poor Tim Tebow?? He's 3-1! He's winning! He's beating the odds like he always does! What are you talking about, man?"

You'll see.

UPDATE: 11/17/11, 10:39 CST

Fuggeddabaoudit. After three and a half quarters of struggling, Tebow pulls another Miami miracle at home versus the New York Jets, smashing down the hypothetical "wall" on a 20-yard scramble around New York's flank for the winning touchdown.

The story is all too familiar: Tebow passes like KFed raps, the Broncos are down, and then he pulls a magical drive out of his keister, most of it with his feet. Credit to the defense for keeping the game close, but that last, 95-yard, game-winning drive was 99.5% Tebow (the .05 being his blockers and Dante Rosario's ludicrous diving catch). When the Broncos needed a miracle, they got it from their miracle man.

Tebow met the wall, and he kicked it down. How do you like them apples? On to San Diego, where the Chargers had better have two guys on the field and one in the booth with a telescope to spy #15.

Meet Cam Newton

Tim Tebow, I would like to introduce you to Cam Newton.

Like you, Newton was not highly thought of by NFL "experts." Like you, he was doubted. Like you, he has met with more success than many expected.

And like you soon will, he's hitting a wall.

Cam Newton came roaring into the NFL at a record-setting pace, seemingly blindsiding opponents with dazzling moves, surprisingly accurate throws and on-the-field decisions that belied his status as a rookie. Unfortunately for Newton, he plays for the Carolina Panthers.

Perhaps not equally unfortunately, he started from Week 1, which means that teams have now had 10 weeks of relevant, revealing game film to study and are now able to game plan for him.

Newton was 23-40 for 212 yards, no touchdowns and one interception against the ho-hum pass defense of the Tennessee Titans this week. By contrast, he went 18-23 for 256 yards, one touchdown and no picks against against a much stiffer Washington unit a couple weeks ago.

Granted, he did shred Minnesota last week, but so has everybody. Only Green Bay and New England have worse pass defenses, and Newton threw for his still-young-career-best 432 yards against Green Bay.

The point being, Newton isn't a surprise anymore, and his performance this week showed what even a mediocre defense can do when they game plan for a rookie who is still learning.

Cam Newton has shown that he has everything it takes to be a top-tier NFL quarterback, but he's still a rookie. He hasn't reached the stage in his development where the element of surprise is not an important factor in his impact.

Like you, Mr. Tebow.

Meet Michael Vick

Now, everybody say hello to Michael Vick.

Another running quarterback, Vick isn't quite the surprise that Can Newton and Tim Tebow have been. Vick has been around for a while.

But he did take a side trip for long enough that it took a new team and a concussion to get him back behind center as a starter.

In the second quarter of their Week 1 matchup with the Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles starting quarterback Kevin Kolb was knocked out of the game by Clay Matthews, and Michael Vick stepped in to finish the game. He went 16-24 for 175 yards and a touchdown.

The next week, he went 21-34 for 284 yards and two touchdowns, still no interceptions.

The next week, 291 yards and three touchdowns, no picks.

After being sidelined with an injury, his next two games combined were worth 551 yards and five touchdowns — no interceptions.

After that, things took a turn. This year, he has 11 scores through the air and 11 picks, and his team sits at the bottom of the NFC East at 3-6.

Welcome to the element of surprise. Over and over, capable backups have come in to storm around the NFL for 7-10 weeks, kicking aside stunned opponents and rocking the league. And then they hit a wall. Ask Derek Anderson.

It's a common enough phenomenon that it doesn't take much explaining. As soon as teams gather relevant tape on a player, they can better game plan for him, and that player then has trouble extending their success. This happens with hot-hand rookies and from-nowhere backups.

Unless your name is Tom Brady, it happens to everybody. Tim Tebow will be no exception.

Meet the New York Jets

If I am wrong, we'll find out pretty quickly.

Denver's next opponents, the New York Jets, might not be as good as their braggadocios head coach believes, but they are better than the Broncos. In every aspect of the game. Especially defense.

In other words, Denver will not be putting 244 rushing yards over on the Jets. Oh, they'll try. I mean, who wants the very green Tebow throwing into that secondary? But they will fail, or at least they'll fall behind far enough to force the pass.

And then it's over.

I know, stranger things have happened. The Broncos have shown great improvement on defense and in the running game. They're winning.

But this isn't the Dolphins or the Chiefs. This is the Jets, who cut their teeth twice a year on the New England Patriots and the lately-effective Buffalo Bills. They have three straight winning seasons, the last two of which sent them deep into the playoffs. They know how to win, and they do it more often than not.

If the Broncos somehow manage to beat the Jets, it will be a huge upset. If they do it on Tim Tebow's back, it will be a miracle. Somehow, I don't see it.

This will not be the game that reveals in sharp contrast the wall that looms ahead. The Jets aren't explosive enough on offense to eliminate the Broncos' ground game right away. It will take two or three quarters. But it will happen, and Tebow will struggle mightily.

What comes next will not be pretty.

...And the Rest

It doesn't get any easier for the Broncos after the Jets.

They next play the Chargers in San Diego, and Philip Rivers' woes this year is not enough to allow Denver a chance to win this one. The Chargers are fourth in offense through the air, and Denver cannot keep up. Tebow throws a lot and the Broncos lose.

Then it's on to Minnesota to play the Vikings, a second straight away game. This one might appear easier if you're only looking at the win/loss column, but appearances can be deceiving. Minnesota isn't sixth against the run for nothing; they were built to stop the run. Plus, they play in a division with Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers; they know how to handle a mobile quarterback. More throwing; more losing.

Then Denver hosts Chicago and New England back-to-back. The Bears do everything the Broncos are trying to do (run, play solid defense, control the clock), only better. And the Patriots... I mean, does anybody think the Broncos have a snowball's chance in hell against Tom Brady and crew? I thought not.

Next, the Broncos shuffle off to Buffalo to get handled by the Bills, who have been crushing lesser opponents all year. They've stumbled against tough outs like the Bengals, Giants and Cowboys, but they haven't lost to any team as weak as Denver, and they've beaten a couple of very good units.

Denver's best chance to add another win comes in their final game, as they host the awful (perhaps the worst in the division) Kansas City Chiefs. This one could go either way, but by now, the point has been made. Tebow's early success has stopped, and it's tough times in Denver.

Let's Review

Again, it's clear that new quarterbacks are harder to deal with for the simple reason that they're an unknown quantity. Oh, you can look at college tape to get a vague idea, but the NFL isn't the NCAA. It has proven true over and over, with backups and rookies coming in to take the NFL by storm, only to hit a wall when enough relevant film has been compiled on them.

Tebow has done everything for his team that he can: He's run effectively, thrown not-so-effectively (but more importantly, not to the other team), and has done everything in his power to move the chains. Fortunately, a recently revived ground game and a surprisingly decent defense means he has not been asked to do too much.

Unfortunately, that will come to an end for the next six games, at least. Stiff defenses and high-octane offenses will require Denver to abandon the run in order to keep up, and this is where the wall looms largest.

The it-ain't-pretty-but-it-gets-the-job-done Broncos will need Tebow to take to the air, and it goes without saying that this is his weakest point. When they take to the air, they lose the clock control game, and they lose the yards on the ground.

What they get in return is 44.8 percent in completions, and that just is not enough.

Add Tebow's rawness, Denver's opponents' game planning with relevant tape and a much, much tougher schedule, and you come up with the wall the Broncos' starting QB is about to run into.

Let Me Save You Some Trouble

Allow me the indulgence of addressing the arguments I'll hear over this. Most of these arguments I've already heard, so it's no stretch to think I'll hear them from others.

1. Everyone said the same thing about Tebow hitting a wall against (insert team), and he's proved them wrong.

Not true. No one with half a brain said Tebow would hit a wall against the Chiefs, and he certainly didn't prove critics "wrong" (how can an opinion be "wrong"?) against the Lions. While it is true that few thought he'd dig the Broncos out of a hole in Miami, it doesn't apply to the Oakland game, as the Broncos had to come back on the legs of Willis McGahee (two big runs of 24 and 60 yards for scores) and Eddie Royal (85-yard punt return for a score).

2. You don't know any of this. Tebow could throw for 400 yards against any of these teams. They could still run against anyone. Anything can happen!

True, I suppose; anything can happen. But ask yourself what's most likely to happen, and 400 yards isn't the answer. Nor is running effectively against the run-stuffing Vikings. Nor is keeping up with Tom Brady. "Anything can happen" isn't exactly an informed opinion. "What's most likely to happen" requires some information to answer.

3. Hater. Hatey-hate hating on Tebow because (insert any of the following: he's a winner, he makes more money than you, he's playing in the NFL and you're on a couch, his faith, etc). Hate hate hate. Hate.

I wonder when that refuge will get tiresome? Oh, it's already tiresome to everyone who doesn't use it; I mean for the people who do. This is the terrorists-hate-our-freedom  arguments about Tim Tebow. Any critical analysis equals hate, to some people. I'm not saying Tebow will amount to nothing; I'm saying he's about to hit a wall. Let's not get carried away.

4. They obviously won't run the same offense against every opponent. They'll make adjustments. The way they played the Chiefs won't be the way they play the Chargers, etc.

True, but how much adjusting can you do? It still comes down to the run and the pass, and the pass is not Tebow's strong suit. Schemes can only do so much; the team still has to execute. Shut down the run, and you force the pass.

5. They tried to stop the run in (insert game), and it didn't work. Therefore, it won't work for (insert upcoming game).

Running on the Kansas City Chiefs isn't the same as running on the Jets or the Vikings or the Bears. And the Chiefs are the first (and so far, only) true instance of a team focused on stopping Denver on the ground. After Denver gashed Oakland, the Chiefs keyed on the run and failed. What else is new? The Chiefs have failed a lot at just about everything. Let's wait until a competent defense tries to stop the run and fails before we make this argument.

6. You're not a Broncos fan; what do you know?

Silly. I don't need to be a Broncos fan to watch their games, know their strengths and weaknesses and know their opponents. New parents make this non-sequitur argument a lot: "You don't have children; you don't know anything about them."

7. You're completely overlooking Tebow's intangibles! He's a leader! He inspires people! He has the will to win!

He may have the will to win, but he has the accuracy to hit his coach in the crotch as often as he hits his receivers. And frankly, if NFL-caliber players need Tim Tebow to "inspire" them into playing their best, the Broncos are a lot worse off than even I'm describing.

I'm ignoring the intangibles because they don't trump the tangibles. Inspiration, leadership and will don't cross the goal line. The players do. If the run game is stuffed... will, inspiration and leadership gets you no yards on the ground. Neither do they increase completion percentage.

Epilogue

Finally, let's look beyond the wall.

The important thing for fans to know about the wall is that it isn't permanent. Rookies develop. Good quarterbacks settle into solid play. They're not blindsiding opponents anymore, but talent and skill will still show. Sometimes, the wall will ruin a quarterback, which is always a possibility.

So what do we know about Tebow so far, and what does the future hold?

The Good: Tebow is a professional; he doesn't get distracted, and he doesn't believe the hype. This also means he's very coachable. He's a creative player; he doesn't freeze when the play falls apart. He's confident without being suicidally overconfident. He can run pretty well. His arm strength is good enough to make all the relevant throws. He has all the physical skills.

The Bad: He's wildly inaccurate, and he doesn't read defenses worth a damn. His windup takes too long.  He tucks and runs too readily, but this is more about inexperience than natural tendency.

That may look like more good than bad, but the bad is really, really bad if you're an NFL quarterback. Tebow's skills as a passer are very, very raw.

The scouts were right on one point: Tebow is a project, and he needs time to develop.

Developing Tebow means addressing the two main problems: accuracy and reading defenses. Both can be coached, so that's good news. His windup will plague him his entire career if he doesn't correct it, but it's not as crucial as the first two.

Point being, his flaws can be fixed. It's just a matter of whether or not a team is willing to invest the time and energy (and money) to do so. With the Broncos in rebuilding mode (still), he may get just that. Until then, his fans will just have to hope that crashing into the wall doesn't do permanent damage.