Toronto Raptors: Best and Worst Case Scenarios for the Raptors in 2011-2012

Hey! Just recently I wrote a piece which evaluated Toronto's position, and what would be the best plan going forward. It lead to fruitful discussions, but I noticed almost every scenario thinkable was capable of having it's ups and downs.

That got me thinking, and like a bored man on a quest to squeeze this orange one last time, I've gone ahead and thought of Toronto's Best-Case and Worst-Case scenario's for next season.

The Raptors are in a very foggy situation right now as the future of the team for years to come could all be decided in what happens this next season. Toronto isn't yet committed to most of the Roster, and has a ton of flexibility going forward. Even with the current team, fans are left guessing how the team will play with Dwane Casey at the helm, and Bargnani as a Power Forward. Then there's factors like the Collective Bargaining Agreement, Free Agency, the '12 Draft, and progress of young players.

There are so many factors which will decide how where Toronto will find itself at this time next year that it's unlikely we will fit them all in this slideshow, but here are some events which could have both Positive or Negative effects on Toronto's future.

Best Case #1: Season Is Cancelled

Lock-Out Cancels Entire NBA Season

This scenario would be perfect for all the draft fanatics. If there is no NBA season the league might do what the NHL did in the 2005 draft: giving teams which haven't been in the playoffs the past three season and haven't won the lottery in that time frame each three ping pong balls in a draft with 50 total balls.

The Raptors fit the criteria and would have the highest odds of getting the first-overall pick along with a few other teams (Nets, T-Wolves, Warriors, and Kings).

The other rumored alternative is that the NBA chooses to conduct the Draft Lottery using teams' records for the 2010-2011 season. This alternative would be just as good because the Raptors had the third best odds towards receiving the first-overall pick.

Though a lock-out is not something which any of us enjoy, the majority of Toronto fans are OK with the idea of tanking. This situation would put us in great draft position without enduring another humiliating season which would be better for fans, but more importantly will prevent our players from becoming frustrated and disgruntled with another losing season.

Worst Case #1: Other Teams Breakout

Raptors Fall Behind in the Arms Race

The Raptors are not the only young team in the east. The Wizards, Bucks, Bobcats, and the Pacers are all rising teams, while most playoff teams look like they're not going anywhere. The Raptors have a solid young core, but before diving into the race for the eighth seed, many believe the Raptors will wait and hope for a super-star in next years draft.

Toronto will be bad next season, and the season after might put them in the playoffs with a solid young core, but by then teams like Washington and Cleveland will also have stock-piled talent with just as much flexibility as Toronto.

Toronto could end up being nothing more than a 7th-8th seed play-off squad when DeRozan is a free agent, and if other young teams are doing better off we could run the risk of losing our top players to free agency. There's a small time frame for our next draft selection to shine, and if he doesn't Toronto will be in a very uncomfortable position.

Best Case #2: New CBA Works to Our Favor

New CBA Cripples Memphis and Dallas

The next CBA could be a blessing for Toronto because Toronto has lots of cap-space, and at the same time, many good teams are stacked with over-paid players.

Memphis and Dallas in particular are two teams which will have a hard time retaining key players like Marc Gasol and Tyson Chandler if they're given even less flexibility, even with an amnesty clause.

If the Raptors swoop in and capitalize on any opportunity to grab one of these dominant Centers, Toronto will instantly become a play-off team in a climate where most playoff teams will want to get rid of their solid-but-overpaid role players.

There's no negative side to winning, and my personal opinion is that Raptors fans shouldn't get greedy. It's been three seasons of losing, and a lot of people are getting way ahead of themselves suggesting another tanked season without knowing how drastically the league could change two years from now. Things never really go 'as expected' in the NBA so gambling an entire season into a plan which has no guarantees is silly if you ask me.

Worst Case #2: Tank Again but No Luck

Draft Disappointment

Now this is just playing devils advocate, and things could go the exact opposite to this terrible scenario.

The Raptors could very well decide to tank another season, but having a terrible record doesn't guarantee a superstar. Many of the projected players in next season "stacked" draft class could decided to stay in school another year, especially if they don't dominate at the college level.

The "stacked" draft class could make many young prospects rethink if they should enter the draft or not because they will likely be picked much higher if they wait a year. It's not surprising to see hyped prospects turn out to be mediocre (Harrison Barnes last year), and that could be the case with a number of players next year.

Anthony Davis is expected to be a top 3 pick next year, and though he's very good, he's painfully skinny at 214 pounds. He's a likely one and done candidate but if he gets tossed around and fails to live up the the hype, I could see this young fella staying in Kentucky for another year. Another top prospect Andre Drummond is a physical beast who many believe will go first-overall. Drummond has the size and strength very few will match at the college level, but he's very raw. If he fails to develop any offensive game, it could be worth staying in college for another year.

Toronto will still have a long list of great players to choose from if they tank it, but something which we can't ignore is that nothing guarantees the Raptors will have a top 5 pick. Toronto slipped to fifth-overall despite being the third worst team in the league, and teh same could happen next season. If Harrison Barnes, James McAdoo, or any top SF is picked before the Raptors get to pick, that will likely leave Toronto the no choice but to go for the best available talent in the draft. While Sullinger, Perry Jones, and Lamb are great young players, they don't fit Toronto's needs and will make fans frustrated.

To really make this a worst case scenario, I'll add whoever is picked could end up being a work in progress rather than an immediate impact player.

Overall things could go the exact opposite to the picture being painted here, but you never know.

Best Case #3: IL MAGO, an All-Star

Bargnani gets the message

Andrea Bargnani's biggest obstacle preventing him from carving out a name for himself last season was his lack of motivation.

Bargnani has improved every season with Toronto, and did so last season as well. As Bargnani continued to fill it up nightly, the young Italian was enjoying a break-out season as Toronto's face of the franchise.

Then everything crashed and burned. It turns out Barg's had a hard time playing defense in Jay Triano's terrible system, and the hard work and effort required on defense didn't seem worth the trouble to Bargnani who thought he was doing just fine.

Then as the season came to an end it seemed the entire league became informed there was a 7 footer who averaged only five rebounds last year. Toronto finished with a terrible record and dead last on defense, and the culprit could be no other than Andrea Bargnani the teams' best player.

So with all the criticism Bargnani took especially towards the second half of the season, It's very possible Bargnani will want to silence the haters next year. Playing in a new position and in a new system will be the foundation which will allow Bargnani to do better as a big man in the NBA. Andrea will need to work hard at crashing the boards something which he was uninterested with last season. 

Bargnani has only rebounding and defense left to improve on before he's a complete player in this league, and he should want to achieve that status.

Bargnani will be playing for Italy this off-season to help them qualify for the 2012 London Olympics. The European game is very physical and will be a great way for Bargs to develop more grit and drive on defense.

Bargnani will never be a great defensive player, but all he needs is to average 7.5 rebounds and maintain his averages for blocks/points and he'll be an all-star. That goal is very possible, and it's all up to Bargnani to accomplish it.

Worst Case #3: DeRozan = Overrated

DeRozan fails to improve

Demar Derozan is a treasure to Raptors fans, and is expected to be a star in this league. DeRozan has a lot to improve on even though he scored a solid 17 PPG last season. He drained only 9% of his three pointers last year, and it's vital he improves.

Even though nothing indicates that he won't, what happens if DeRozan does not improve? The Raptors were a terrible team on purpose last year, and somebody has got to score on a bad team, right? DeRozan put up decent numbers on one of the worst teams in the league, and one could question if he'll be able to maintain such production if the Raptors add to their team through free agency and trades.

If DeRozan fails to get better at his shooting and defense, it could turn out his athleticism alone won't be enough to become an all-star. On an improved Raptor team, DeRozan could even see his stats drop which would hurt his value as a player.

This is a unlikely scenario as DeRozan is only entering his third season, but it would be a nightmare if it were to happen.

Best Case #4: Everybody Plays to Their Potential

Young Core plays up to its potential

This is a very broad and unlikely scenario just because having every young player improve at once doesn't really happen.

Jerryd Bayless is capable of being a legitimate 15 point scorer, Ed Davis and Amir Johnson are both able to rack up double-doubles, while players like James Johnson and and Linas Kleiza can become very good role players who will do that little things that don't show up on the stat sheet. Bargnani and DeRozan both have it in them to be all-stars.

Imagine all of those possibilities coming true! Well, actually, even half of them would happen the Raptors would be a contending team with the addition of another all-star caliber player.

Worst Case #4: Freak Injury Occurs

Freak Injury on Key Player

God forbid this ever happens. One of the worst possible scenario's that could ever play out for Toronto would be if a freak injury were to happen to any one of our Key players.

Whether it be Bargnani, DeRozan, Davis, or Valanciunas, any major injury would be devastating to the Raptors. Whether it be a season-ending knee injury or a broken foot, the Raptors cannot afford to have any of their top players seriously hurt.

A serious injury will not only prevent them from playing for months, it could come back and nag them constantly forcing them to play worse when healthy.

Not every player on the team is expected to be here forever, but if they do leave Toronto will always be better off if they could send them away in a trade which will give us more assets. A freak accident could really hurt a players' value even when they're ready to play again.

In 2007 we lost Jorge Garbajosa to injury, and even though he was a role player, the team fell apart shortly after, and losing him was a reason why. Just two years ago we saw Chris Bosh going down after an elbow to the face, the result of that injury was the Raptors missing the playoffs by half a game.

I personally hope Valanciunas stays healthy over in Europe where the game is much more physical, the Raptors can't afford anything serious next season.

Best Case #5: Raptors Make a Steal

Raptors Make a Steal

Every year we see steals. Steals on draft night, steals at the trade deadline, and sometimes we see ordinary role players step it up without anyone expecting to.

Last year we saw Marcin Gortat a backup to Dwight Howard get traded to Phoenix and transform into a top 10 center in the league (even though Phoenix was more interested in dumping Hedo Turkoglu). We also saw Dorrel Wright, a role player who was signed for under $4m, score more points in his seventh season than all six of his previous seasons in the NBA. Players like Al Thorton and Jordan Crawford were also pleasant surprises to their teams, who had given up little to obtain them.

Next year, the Raptors would love to pull of a steal via trade. A trade which could get us a player who has a small contract and turn out to be a good player is something that will speed up the rebuilding process for the Raptors.

It's all easier said than done though. last year we saw Bryan Colangelo make numerous trades for young and unproven talents (Ajinca, Johnson, Bayless, Wright) and aside from Bayless and James Johnson, many of the players turned out to be nothing special.

Personally I could see a few young players capable of being really good. Omer Asik is invaluable to Chicago, but if we could land him somehow (Reggie Evans + second-rounders?) it'll be a total steal. Ramon Sessions and Jeremy Tyler are two other players who could a lot for a little.

Worst Case #5: Colangelo Screws Up

Bryan Colangelo Spends on Mediocre Free Agents

One of the worst things that could happen to Toronto would be for Bryan Colangelo to spend our precious cap-space on 2-3 decent players instead of 1-2 GOOD players.

What I mean is settling for J.R Smith, Samuel Dalembert, and Josh Howard instead of chasing after Tyson Chandler, and Aaron Afflalo.

A lot of the time mid-level guys aren't worth the money they're making (Travis Outlaw, Josh Childress), and even if they were, the Raptors already have a roster full of talented role players, but they need star power to get over the hump.

By spending money foolishly like this it will only create log-jams involving mediocre players (Jose Calderon and Jarret Jack, remember?).

I highly doubt Colangelo would dare doing such a move, but you never know..

Conclusion

Overall there's a few best case—worst case scenarios which we could wind up in (more or less).

Personally, I expect both good and bad things to happen throughout the season, but let's hope the good outweighs the bad.

The Raptors are truly in a grey area and there's many things that will be decided which will effect the teams future.

Thanks for reading and please, tell me what you think!