Washington Nationals: Upcoming Stretch Will Dictate Trade Deadline Activity

The Washington Nationals are riding a six-game winning streak and currently sit 5.5 games back in the wild-card standings. They are somewhere between playoff contender and also-ran, and the team's future will be decided in the next 30 days or so depending on which way the team goes.

The stretch includes games against the Orioles, Mariners, White Sox, Angels, Pirates, Cubs and Rockies; of that group only the Pirates have a winning record and only six of those games are on the road.

If the Nationals go, say, 15-8 during this stretch, which would put them at 48-44 going into the All-Star break, how would they approach the trade deadline?

1. Would they be buyers and go for a playoff push?
2. Would they stand pat and accept their earlier-than-expected success for what it is?
3. Or would they keep their eyes on the future and flip their plethora of veterans for younger players?

I think we can eliminate option No. 1; Mike Rizzo is too smart to mortgage the Nats' bright future for a shot at success now. That leaves us with option No. 2 or No. 3, neither of which is easy to dismiss.

If Jason Marquis can keep up his current pace—and that is a Todd Coffey-sized if—he will be a hot commodity when the trade deadline comes around. The Yankees, who have never been opposed to selling off a prospect for a shot at winning now, started Brian Gordon on Thursday. The same Brian Gordon who was a minor league position player as of last week. They'll be in the market for a starter of Marquis' ability, and if they continue to trail the Red Sox in the division race, they'll be willing to overpay for him.

But if the Nationals are serious about competing in 2012 and 2013, won't they need a veteran guy like Marquis in the rotation? And isn't Marquis more likely to sustain his performance than Livan Hernandez?

Most would say yes, but for some reason, no one mentions Livo's name when talking about the Nats trade options.

And then there's the case of Laynce Nix, who has played far beyond his expectations. His stock will never be this high again, and considering the dearth of available power bats, the Nationals could get a lot in return for the veteran left-hander.

But again, what if the Nats are a game or two back when the deadline comes around? Will they pass up a chance at success now in return for future dividends? Can a team yet to grab hold of the city's attention afford to?

Rizzo will likely play it by ear, much like he did with Adam Dunn last year. If he gets the right offer for Nix or Marquis, he'll likely pull the trigger; if not, he'll likely take his chances in the offseason.