New York Yankees: 5 Bold Predictions for the 2011 Season
When a team is as historically successful as the New York Yankees, it's difficult to shock people when predicting what they might accomplish.
In a season where the Yanks have perhaps their lowest expectations over the past decade, however, it might be easier to achieve that shock value than it has in quite some time.
Make no mistake, the Yankees are still among the favorites to win it all this season, but with the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays operating in lockstep with the Yanks, their quest for a 28th championship will be a long and arduous one.
Without further ado, here are five bold predictions for the remainder of the New York Yankees' 2011 season.
5. Curtis Granderson Will Hit 40 Home Runs
1 of 5
At first glance, this prediction might not be considered bold at all. When you delve deeper into the numbers, though, it's easy to see why the odds are stacked against Curtis Granderson hitting 40 long balls.
With 16 home runs in 52 games, Granderson is currently on pace to hit well over 40 dingers. When looking at Granderson's career numbers, however, it's apparent that he's never really come close to reaching the 40-homer milestone.
Granderson did hit 30 round trippers as a Detroit Tiger in 2009, which is an impressive feat in the expansive confines of Comerica Park, but 40 is a completely different animal.
The biggest reason why Granderson will reach 40 home runs this year is his vast improvement when it comes to hitting off lefties. Prior to this season, Granderson had never hit better than .258 and had never hit more than five home runs off left-handed pitchers in a season.
This season is a completely different story as Granderson is actually hitting lefties better than he is righties. With a .298 average and eight homers against southpaws, Granderson now brings a completely different dimension to his hitting than he ever has.
It used to be that teams could neutralize Granderson in the latter stages of games by bringing in left-handed specialists. With this advantage now rendered moot, Granderson has far more chances to go yard than he ever has before.
Add in the fact that Yankee Stadium's short porch is perfectly tailored to Granderson compact swing and it's clear that Granderson's home run pace is much more likely to stay on track than it has in the past.
4. The Yankees WIll Acquire a Big Arm at the Deadline
2 of 5
Before the start of the 2011 season, no aspect of the Yankees was more scrutinized than their starting rotation. With the retirement of Andy Pettitte and failure of the front office to land a big name to replace him, it's understandable why expectations were low.
With calendars about to turn to June, it's quite possible that what was once considered the Yanks' Achilles heel is now their biggest strength. From top to bottom, New York's rotation has performed at a high level. CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova have all had solid seasons—to varying degrees.
Although this ragtag rotation may be good enough to keep the Yankees in the race for now, I firmly believe that they need to add another quality arm if they want to be serious contenders.
With Phil Hughes scheduled to return from injury in a couple weeks, he could eliminate that need. It's more likely, however, that something will come up, whether it be injury or ineffectiveness, that will demand that the Yanks make a move.
Seeing as the Yankees conserved plenty of cash by making predominantly bargain signings this offseason, money should be no object when it comes to acquiring another pitcher (as if it would anyway).
Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners is obviously the biggest name speculated to be available at this point. If the Mariners do decide to trade him, the Yankees certainly have the ammunition with their strongest farm system in years.
If Hernandez stays put, though, there still should be some intriguing options on the market such as Mark Buehrle of the Chicago White Sox, Francisco Liriano of the Minnesota Twins and even Chris Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals should the Cards attempt to cost cut in an effort to re-sign Albert Pujols.
Whichever starter the Yanks do acquire, he should be able to team with Sabathia, Burnett and the resurgent Colon to make a formidable staff that can compete and win come playoff time.
3. Phil Hughes Will Make an Impact Down the Stretch
3 of 5
Even with the surprisingly good performance of the Yankee rotation to this point, there is no doubt that Phil Hughes has been missed. Hughes was a drain on the Yanks early in the season when he tried to pitch through a dead arm that kept is velocity in the 80s. His 18 wins in 2010 is evidence, however, that he has the ability to be a top-of-the-rotation pitcher.
A healthy Hughes would give the Yankees a reliable staff provided Burnett and Colon keep up their good starts. Unfortunately for the Yanks, it's no guarantee that cortisone shots will be enough to ease the discomfort in Hughes' throwing shoulder.
It's certainly possible that moving back into a starting role will put too much strain on Hughes' injured shoulder. If it's deemed that Hughes can't handle a full workload, there still might be another option for utilizing him. A move to a setup role in the bullpen will ensure that Hughes doesn't get overworked, but it will still allow him to have a profound impact on the team's success.
With the injury to Rafael Soriano, there's a bit of a void in the Yankee bullpen at the moment. Joba Chamberlain and David Robertson have done a nice job thus far, but they may be best off splitting seventh inning duties.
Sticking Hughes in such a role wouldn't be a completely random decision either as Hughes did a fantastic job setting the table for Mariano Rivera in 2009. He spent most of that season in the bullpen and posted a sub-2.00 ERA.
In the bullpen, Hughes will be able exhaust his velocity in one inning rather than having to conserve it over the course of a game as a starter. The move would only be temporary as Hughes could move back into the rotation next season.
A move to the pen in 2011, though, would be a good way to utilize a talented pitcher who has been written off by many this season.
.png?w=256)
2. The Yankees Will Win the AL East
4 of 5
The Yankees winning the American League Eastern Division might seem like old hat to most, but the fact of the matter is that the Yanks have won their division just once over the past four seasons. With the Red Sox and Rays both playing great ball at the moment, this could be the most competitive divisional race in recent memory.
New York is technically in the driver's seat presently as it leads Boston by percentage points and is a game and a half up on Tampa Bay. Interestingly enough, the Toronto Blue Jays are just two games back as well.
What sets the Yankees apart from their divisional foes is the explosiveness of their offense. Although Boston might have the ability to score runs on a more consistent basis, no team in the majors can score in bunches quite like the Bronx Bombers.
As the American League leaders in runs scored and home runs with 269 and 80, respectively, it's clear that the Yanks possess firepower that is rarely seen in today's Major League Baseball. In fact, the Yankees hold a 16-home run lead on their next closest competitor, another measure of their offensive dominance.
As if that wasn't enough, the Yankees have been among the league's best when it comes to pitching as well. As a team, the Yanks are fourth in the AL in ERA and fifth in total runs allowed.
Their run differential of plus-60 is by far the best in the majors. Add in the fact Yankee defense is laden with Gold Glovers and it can be argued that the Yanks are nearly as good at preventing runs as they are at scoring them.
The AL East won't be a runaway for the Yanks, not by a long shot. When you look at the stats and watch the games, however, it seems as though the Yankees edge out the Jays, Rays and even the Red Sox when it comes to being a complete baseball team.
1. The Yankees Will Win the World Series
5 of 5
When it comes to predicting the success of a sports team, there can be no bolder prediction than that of a championship. While it can be said that predicting a World Series win for the Yankees isn't exactly going out on a limb, it might comes as a bit of a surprise if it were to happen.
My rationale for this prediction was already highlighted in the previous slide, but another big reason why I think the Yanks can go all the way this season is a lack of serious competition.
In the American League, Boston is probably closest to being New York's equal, but as I already explained, I think the Yankees are slightly better. Cleveland, while having the best record in the AL, doesn't seem to be a serious threat as its rotation is suspect.
Although Texas eliminated the Yankees last season, the team is completely different without the benefit of Cliff Lee. They might be closest to New York in terms of the potency of their offense, but the Rangers' pitching is questionable as well.
The Yankees' biggest competition, in my opinion, would occur in the World Series itself in the form of the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies' rotation of Lee, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt is the best the league has seen in years, and pitching may be the most important aspect of a championship team.
As good as the Phillies' rotation is, however, the Yankees hold a big advantage offensively. This was the case in the 2009 World Series and it holds true today.
The Phillies' lineup is certainly capable, but with the departure of Jayson Werth, it is far too heavy on left-handed hitters. This is something the Yanks were able to exploit two years ago—and I think they can do it again in 2011.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
