San Francisco Giants: 6 Obstacles to a World Series Two-Peat
Nothing gets the pessimistic juices flowing like watching two straight late inning meltdowns in Denver, then seeing your closer tweak his oblique (albeit during a comeback win over the hated Dodgers).
Can't help it; my mind is humming with all sorts of doomsday San Fracisco Giants scenarios (Admit it, some of you are, too.) Neurotic tendencies aside, the Giants are making it plausible to imagine how things could fall apart for the defending champs.
So, with apologies to you eternal optimists, here are six reasons the defending World Series champs are unlikely to go back-to-back.
Precedent
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Only two clubs, the 1998-2000 New York Yankees and 1992-1993 Toronto Blue Jays, have successfully defended a World Series title since 1978. This follows a period in which only three clubs won successive titles in a single decade: Oakland A's (1972-19'74), Cincinnati Reds (1975-1976) and New York Yankees (1977-1978).
It seems more than coincidental that the current drought began with the 1994 reorganization of each league from two divisions to three, and the addition of a wild-card playoff slot.
Those changes doubled the number of teams in postseason play from four to eight, and created an extra playoff round (the Division Series). The law of averages alone makes the road to a World Series title more difficult than in the past. Add the fact that defending champions face so many distractions, plus intense media and fan scrutiny, and you can see why going back-to-back is uncommonly difficult.
The Injury Bug Is Biting Hard
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Fewer than 50 games into the season, injuries have become a genuine concern. Key regulars Pablo Sandoval, Andres Torres and Cody Ross have all been sidelined. Buster Posey has caught several foul tips in the mask; he keeps playing but the club is (and should be) sensitive to the potential for neurological harm from repeated shots to the head. Freddy Sanchez is battling a swollen knee. Brian Wilson opened the season on the DL with an oblique (BTW, where exactly is that?), and it flared up last night.
All that, plus the apparent loss of Mark DeRosa for the long haul after his left wrist flared up during an at-bat on Wednesday in Los Angeles.
There were injury issues last year: Aaron Rowand's facial fracture, Freddy Sanchez's shoulder, Edgar Renteria's...age, and Andres Torres' appendicitis during the September stretch drive, to name a few. But nowhere near as bad as this.
The Giants are immensely fortunate that their starting rotation and bullpen have stayed remarkably healthy all year. Barry Zito is out indefinitely, but Ryan Volgelsong is a clear upgrade.
It could be just the law of averages, or an inevitable consequence of an aging core of veterans. Either way, this club appears highly vulnerable to the injury bug.
Debatable Managerial Decisions
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Might seem presumptuous to be second-guessing the manager after guiding the club to the World Series title a year ago. But, some of his game decisions are prompting questions from beat reporters.
Bochy got testy after being asked why he left Tim Lincecum in to face lefty Carlos Gonzalez with two runners aboard in the bottom of the seventh in a tie game Monday night; Gonzalez took Lincecum deep for the deciding runs in a 7-4 Rockie win.
Lincecum is his ace; it's perfectly understandable that Bochy would stay with him in a tough spot. But, the next night, he left starter Jonathan Sanchez in to face a pinch-hitter with two runners on base in an obvious late-inning sacrifice situation. Sanchez had made a similar play earlier; with the game on the line, he threw the ball away, setting up another Rockies game-winning rally.
There also are legitimate questions about Bochy's reliance on veterans.
Why, for example, did Nate Schierholtz sit while Aaron Rowand took an 0-4 in Tuesday's loss to the Rockies? Schierholtz had homered the previous night, his second jack at Coors this season (Bochy later rationalized this move as part of a predetermined plan to mix in all his outfielders.)
On Wednesday in L.A., Rowand played and went 1-4 with an RBI. He's batting .250. Torres, hitting .308 in fewer plate appearances, sat out.
As the club continues to struggle offensively (last in runs scored in the NL through last night), why is Brandon Belt wasting away in AAA? Hate to think Bochy has discouraged Brian Sabean from promoting him. As I've observed previously, the Giants would be wise to follow Bill Walsh's edict that a younger player with upside is more valuable than an aging vet who might deliver a bit more in the short term.
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Few Bargaining Chips to Play, for Now
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General manager Brian Sabean must be numb (if he's even paying attention) to pleas from fans for a deal that would bring Jose Reyes to San Francisco. Forgetting for the moment the debatable merits of dealing for Reyes, which I addressed in an earlier story, the Giants have limited resources with which to play a high stakes trade game.
Having nurtured a homegrown starting rotation that carried the Giants to last year's title, Sabean and his player development staff continue developing position players in a farm system that became severely depleted during the Bonds era. It's taken years to restock, but the strategy is beginning to pay off; Buster Posey joined the big club in 2010 and Brandon Belt should join him for good some time soon.
Renting a soon to be high value free agent like Reyes, at the possible cost of a prized prospect like pitcher Zach Wheeler plus one or more big leaguer, defies the long-term plan.
Restocking a fallow farm system is one challenge. Contractual baggage from the Rowand, DeRosa and Zito contracts is another. Until those dollars start coming off the books beginning in 2012, Brian Sabean has precious few resources with which to meaningfully improve the 2011 club. Perhaps another Cody Ross will fall into their laps through a waiver deal, but don't count on it. And, don't count on a meaningful midseason deal for, say, a quality shortstop, unless Sabean rolls the dice and trades a front-line pitcher.
The Competition
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Face it, if not for a meltdown by Atlanta Braves infielder Brooks Conrad (who deserved at least a partial World Series share, if not more) and a few incredibly clutch late-inning moments, the Giants would have been out of the playoffs in the first round.
The 2011 Giants may, in the end, be better than the 2010 champs, yet fail to advance as far in the playoffs—if they make the postseason at all. That's because, beyond their own roster, other competitive factors will make it very difficult to repeat.
The Philadelphia Phillies added Cliff Lee to an already impressive rotation, and are highly motivated.
The Florida Marlins have matured into a serious threat in the NL East. They are legit.
The Braves remain dangerous—and revitalized under new manager Fredi Gonzalez.
The Reds are still an offensive nightmare. And virtually ever other NL Central club seems improved.
The Rockies one-two punch of Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki is the most formidable in the NL West, perhaps in the league. They'll contend all season if Ubaldo Jiminez recovers his form and the rest of their offense wakes up. You should assume it will.
The Giants pitching will keep them in the race, but anemic offense and suspect defense make them far from a sure bet to repeat.
Karma
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The 2010 Giants had awesome karma. Brooks Conrad booted three balls in the Division Series, and each fueled Giant rallies that helped eliminate the Braves in four games. The Texas Rangers' Ian Kinsler's drive in Game 2 of the World Series struck the top of AT&T's center field wall at just the right angle—with an unimaginably small margin of error—and bounced back in play. Kinsler reached second but never scored; the Giants eventually won that game going away 9-0.
Had Kinsler's ball cleared the wall, giving the Rangers an early lead, who's to say they might not have won that game and returned to Texas 1-1 instead of down 0-2? And who knows how the series would have then unfolded?
The Giants seem to be touched by karma in 2011, too—much of it bad. How else would you explain a foul tip, in a recent game, nailing Buster's facemask AND shoulder AND the home plate umpire, for good measure? Or Mark DeRosa hurting his left wrist without appearing to move his bat? Or Andres Torres tweaking his Achilles while making an utterly unremarkable move toward a fly ball?
I'm expecting any day to hear that someone can't play because he slept funny on his eye (inside joke for older readers with long memories).
Whatever it is, something feels different about 2011. And it doesn't feel as good.
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