2011 NBA Mock Draft: Predicting Each Lottery Pick's NBA Destiny‏
This isn't your normal NBA Mock Draft. Mock drafts typically predict how the picks will unfold during the draft. However, I will use my prognostication skills to instead predict the NBA destiny of each of the lottery picks in this year's draft based on the current and/or former player(s) they are most similar to. As such I will have the mock draft unfold as to what each team should do, not necessarily what I think they will do. Draft order is obviously based on pre-lottery ping pong ball happenings.
Since I am writing this as to what each team should do, I have factored in one major trade. Also, keep in mind the weakness of this year's draft class when looking at player selections. This is easily the weakest draft class in recent history.
1. Houston
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The Rockets trade SG Kevin Martin, the 14th overall pick in the 2011 draft and a future first round draft pick to the Minnesota Timberwolves for the 1st overall pick in the 2011 draft and the draft rights to Ricky Rubio.
With the 1st overall pick, the Houston Rockets select SF Derrick Williams from Arizona.
I think the best player comparison is Shawn Marion, an athletic SF who can guard bigger men at times with adequate three-point range. Marion has been a four-time All-Star and was selected 9th overall back when he was drafted. Derrick Williams' ceiling is the third best player on a championship team in my opinion. Ideally he would team up with an elite true point guard and a dominant big man. The Rockets hope that Rubio can be that elite true point guard and also are banking on his popularity in the Hispanic community in Texas.
2. Cleveland
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The Cleveland Cavaliers select SG Alec Burks from Colorado.
I think the best player comparison is Eddie Jones, an all around solid SG who brings a little bit of everything to the table. Jones was a three-time All-Star and was selected 10th overall back when he was drafted. Burks' ceiling is the third best player on a championship team in my opinion. Ideally he would team up with an elite true point guard and a dominant big man.
The Cavaliers make a smart reach here knowing that Burks will probably not make it to their next pick where they should still be able to pick up a decent SF. Burks has a great all-around game and almost carried Colorado (a non-basketball school) to the NCAA tournament this past year. Easily the biggest sleeper in the draft.
3. Toronto
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The Toronto Raptors select PF/C Enes Kanter from Kentucky/Turkey.
I think the best player comparison is Al Horford, a PF that plays out of position at C. Horford is tough as nails down low and is more of an offensive player than a defensive one. Horford has already made two All-Star teams and was also selected 3rd overall when he was drafted. Kanter's ceiling is the third best player on a championship team in my opinion. Ideally he would team up with an elite true point guard and a dynamic wing man. Kanter to the Raptors is probably the biggest slam dunk of the lottery.
The Raptors need a banger down low to complement Andrea Bargnani's soft game. The Raptors have seen Tracy McGrady, Vince Carter and Chris Bosh all leave town. They realize they need to focus on acquiring international players who might actually want to stay in Toronto. The biggest concern with Kanter is less than perfect health for his knees.
4. Washington
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The Washington Wizards select SF Terrence Jones from Kentucky.
I think the best player comparison is a poor man's Lamar Odom, a lanky lefty SF that can handle the ball, has three-ball range and can rebound well for his position. Odom won the 6th Man of the Year Award this year and was selected 4th overall back when he was drafted. Jones' ceiling is the third best player on a championship team in my opinion. Ideally he would team up with an elite true point guard and a dominant big man. Former Kentucky Wildcat John Wall could be that elite true point guard.
5. Sacramento
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The Sacramento Kings select PG Kyrie Irving from Duke.
I think the best player comparison is Terrell Brandon, a good but not elite point guard. Brandon made two All-Star teams and was selected 11th overall when he was drafted. Brandon's career was cut short due to injury, just like Irving's may be due to his serious foot/toe injury he suffered this past year. Irving's ceiling is the third best player on a championship team in my opinion. Ideally he would team up with a dynamic wing man and a dominant big man.
I feel like Irving is easily the most overrated prospect in the draft. I think he will be a solid PG and possibly make several All-Star teams, but he will not be a franchise sort of player that people are touting him to be. Only a PG starved team should consider him at No. 1 overall if they get lucky with the ping pong balls.
6. Utah
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The Utah Jazz select PG Jimmer Fredette from BYU.
I think the best player comparison is a combination of Stephen Curry, Ben Gordon and Vinnie Johnson. A mixture of guys that bring a high basketball IQ, instant offense from the bench and more strength than speed from the guard spot. Jimmer's ceiling is as a 6th man off the bench as a backup combo guard. He can run the point adequately as a backup and has the deep range on his jumper to be effective.
The Jazz need a guy like this and it seems like Jimmer's destiny to end up playing in Utah. They need to take him now since he probably wouldn't last to the 12th pick.
7. Detroit
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The Detroit Pistons select C Keith Benson from Oakland.
I think the best player comparison is a homeless man's David Robinson. Benson can run the floor, defend, block shots and can step out to hit the mid-range jumper. Benson just needs time to develop his game further and to pack on some muscle in the weight room.
Most will say this is too high to take Benson, as he is being projected as a late first-rounder at best. However, Kanter and Benson are the only two legit C prospects in the draft. Also, this draft is very weak on talent. The best remaining players all play a position of non-need for the Pistons. Benson is a local product and worth the gamble. I think he is the biggest sleeper in the draft.
8. Cleveland
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The Cleveland Cavaliers select SF Kawhi Leonard from San Diego State.
I don't think there is a good player comparison for Kawhi Leonard. At least none that come to mind. I have heard Gerald Wallace the most, but I think that is a stretch. Leonard is a decent all around SF who excels at rebounding and having a high motor (probably why he draws the Wallace comparisons).
However, I don't think he is anywhere near the athlete that Wallace is. I think Wallace could be a solid third option on a championship team, while Leonard's ceiling is a fourth option at best. I think Leonard would bring a nice compliment to Burks with his style of play. If Cleveland could add a good C, they could be formidable in a few years with Baron Davis, Burks, Leonard, Hickson and hypothetical C in a future starting lineup.
9. Charlotte
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The Charlotte Bobcats select SF Chris Singleton from Florida State.
I think the best player comparison is a non-crazy, poor man's Ron Artest. Artest was selected 16th overall when he was drafted. He has made one All-Star team and also won a Defensive Player of the Year award as well. Singleton could be almost as good as Artest defensively, but will fall short of Artest on the offensive end. I see his ceiling as the fourth best player on a championship team in my opinion.
10. Milwaukee
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The Milwaukee Bucks select PG Nolan Smith from Duke.
I think the best player comparison is former Duke alum Chris Duhon. Duhon didn't get selected until the second round when he was drafted. He has stuck in the league, albeit, as a decent backup PG. Milwaukee really needs a backup PG for Brandon Jennings, and Nolan Smith should be able to step into that role right away. His ceiling is a backup PG for a championship team.
11. Golden State
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The Golden State Warriors select SF Tyler Honeycutt from UCLA.
I think the best player comparison is Josh Childress. Childress was selected 6th overall when he was drafted. He has stuck in the league as a decent backup SF, including some time spent over in Europe.
Golden State needs a backup SF who can defend and has a decent offensive game. Honeycutt is a bit raw, but should be able to be a rotation player right away. His ceiling is a backup SF for a championship team.
12. Utah
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The Utah Jazz select SF Kyle Singler from Duke.
I think the best player comparison is Jared Dudley. Dudley was selected 22nd overall when he was drafted. He has stuck in the league as a decent backup SF due to his ability to shoot from beyond the arc and rebound at a decent rate.
Utah could use a backup SF with Singler's talents. He should be able to step in right away as a rotational player off the bench. His ceiling is a backup SF for a championship team.
13. Phoenix
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The Phoenix Suns select PG Kemba Walker from Connecticut.
I think the best player comparison is a cross between Allen Iverson and Ben Gordon. Both were lottery picks and excelled at scoring in bunches. However, like both players, Walker doesn't have the requisite skills to be a starting PG on a championship team. He would be best served to be a top 6th man as the backup PG on a championship team.
He could spell Steve Nash early in his career and score in bunches off the bench. Asking him to carry a team would be a mistake. Just look at how that fared for Iverson and Marbury, two similar players.
14. Minnesota
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The Minnesota Timberwolves select SF Jan Vesely from Serbia.
I think the best player comparison is Zarko Cabarkapa. Cabarkapa, also from Serbia, was selected 17th overall when he was drafted. He was an athletic SF who sounded better on paper than in reality. He really is a roll of the dice, as most international prospects are. His ceiling is a backup SF for a championship team.
