MLB Playoff Picture 2021: Yankees Lead Tight AL Wild-Card Race over Red Sox, M's

The New York Yankees recorded their ninth consecutive game with four runs or more Thursday, knocking off Toronto and retaining the lead in a tight AL Wild Card race over Boston and Seattle. The Bronx Bombers lit up the scoreboard as Aaron Judge went 2-3, including a 455-foot homer (his 38th of the season), on the way to a 6-2 drubbing of the Blue Jays. 

The win kept them atop the hunt for the top wild-card spot in the AL. One more win this weekend eliminates the Blue Jays, two and they host the wild-card game.

Though it is a long shot and would require the team to fold under pressure over the weekend, the Yankees can still miss out on the postseason altogether if they are swept and both the Red Sox and Mariners sweep their weekend series.

The Yankees play a tough Tampa Bay Rays club that has already wrapped up the AL East division, while the Red Sox head to Washington to play the Nationals, the Mariners play the Angels, and the Blue Jays battle an Orioles squad with its eyes on spoiling postseason ambitions.

"We've Still Got a Lot of Work to Do"

Winning five-out-of-six games against division foes Toronto and Boston and strengthening its lead in the wild-card race is not enough for Judge, who spoke to the media following Thursday's win: "The job's not finished. We've got to keep going. Even if we can clinch tomorrow, you've still got two more at home [against the Rays], and we want that home-field advantage." 

Yankees manager Aaron Boone echoed that sentiment: "To go 5-1 against two really good clubs, it finishes off a really nice trip. We're just getting started. We've got more to do."

The first bit of work Judge referred to starts Friday with a three-game stretch against the division-leading Rays, who have already locked down AL home-field advantage and will be looking to stay healthy ahead of the postseason.

Still, they value the postseason feel a late series with the Yankees present, as Rays manager Kevin Cash said after Thursday's game against Houston:

"At the end of the day, we very well could be seeing the Yankees in four or five days after that. So you want to make the most of it, and anytime you go into an environment like that, they've got great fans, they're supportive, and it's coming down to the wire. So [I] expect that it should be a fun three days."

Red Sox, Mariners Scenarios

If both Boston and Seattle go 3-0 in their weekend series, a tiebreaker would be held Monday to determine the second wild-card team behind New York. That's the easy part. 

If Seattle wins all three, and Boston goes 2-1, the Mariners would secure the second spot. And vice versa. The team with the most wins will take the second spot, barring an aforementioned tie and a one-game playoff. 

The Blue Jays are a single game behind both Seattle and Boston with a series against Baltimore on the horizon. A slip-up from either of those teams could well mean Vlad Guerrero Jr. and his club jump them for a spot in the championship tourney.

Barring a collapse of epic proportions that would call into question New York's ability to do anything in the postseason once it got there anyway, it feels like this weekend's slate of games will determine who heads to the Bronx to battle the Yanks in the wild-card game.