Pumping the Brakes on 5 NBA Contenders
There can only be one.
All 30 NBA teams reloaded this offseason. Some continued their rebuilds, looking to sharpen their tools for seasons to come. But for most, the 2019-20 campaign brings with it great opportunity. Gone are the mighty Golden State Warriors following the departure of Kevin Durant to the Brooklyn Nets and a potentially season-ending ACL injury suffered by Klay Thompson.
The Houston Rockets received a facelift. Malcolm Brogdon is with the Indiana Pacers, the Finals MVP is suiting up for the Los Angeles Clippers, and no one knows what to make of the revamped Philadelphia 76ers.
The Larry O'Brien Trophy is arguably more available than it's been in 10 years.
Caesars Palace's over/under win totals have the Clippers, Utah Jazz, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers as the top five seeds in the Western Conference. In the East, the Milwaukee Bucks, 76ers, Boston Celtics, Pacers and Nets have the most favorable lines.
As for title odds, the Lakers (+350; bet $100 to make $350) lead the pack, followed by the Clippers (+400), Bucks (+450) and Rockets (+750).
But which teams are getting a little too much hype? Let's separate the pretenders from the contenders and identify who won't be winning the NBA Finals this season.
For more NBA conversations, takes and interviews, download the Full 48 with Howard Beck. Today's episode with Stan Van Gundy covers the biggest recent developments of the modern NBA and biggest storylines of the 2019-20 season.
Omissions
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Houston Rockets
James Harden has led the Rockets to 53 or more wins in five of the past six seasons, and he's reached the playoffs in all seven of his years with the organization. General manager Daryl Morey also essentially turned Chris Paul (34) into Russell Westbrook (30) this offseason.
While the polarizing Westbrook may prove a challenging fit with his high-volume shooting, the Rockets have proved beyond a shadow of a doubt they will be a player in the West. If Russ can take them to the next level, there may be no stopping them.
Milwaukee Bucks
This squad has arguably the fewest question marks in the NBA. It returns its entire roster save Malcolm Brogdon, who missed 18 games in 2018-19. And most importantly, it still has the game's greatest player in Giannis Antetokounmpo.
General manager Jon Horst may not have been willing to spend on Brogdon, but he proved his savvy by prying a first-round pick from the Indiana Pacers in a sign-and-trade. He's been active at the trade deadline in the past, so will he reinforce this roster yet again and help it become a title favorite? Could this be an Andre Iguodala landing spot if the veteran swingman completes a buyout with the Memphis Grizzlies?
Philadelphia 76ers
Headed by MVP and Defensive Player of the Year candidate Joel Embiid, the 76ers carry the most versatile and talented starting lineup in the NBA.
In 2018-19, the 76ers were undone with Embiid off the floor. Now, they have a safety net in Al Horford. With a 6.4 real plus-minus, per ESPN, Embiid finished second among centers last year. Horford was fifth (4.43) and can now reinforce the squad when Embiid exits. Meanwhile, Josh Richardson makes up for JJ Redick's departure to the New Orleans Pelicans, and Matisse Thybulle is a breakout candidate on the defensive end.
Utah Jazz
Last year's second-best defense had a busy offseason, adding Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic and Ed Davis. This group is deep and disciplined, and it still boasts a young scoring guard with All-Star potential (Donovan Mitchell) and a two-time Defensive Player of the Year (Rudy Gobert).
The teams in Los Angeles may get all the offseason attention, but the squad from the Beehive State is quietly coming for the Western Conference.
Boston Celtics
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The race to the top of the Eastern Conference may just consist of the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers, though Boston sits next in line at 49.5 projected wins, per Caesars.
President of basketball operations Danny Ainge regrouped nicely from the impending departure of Kyrie Irving by agreeing to terms with All-NBA point guard Kemba Walker.
Losing Al Horford, however, is an even more impactful blow to the Celtics' title hopes. Not only did he serve as a leader both on and off the court, but they also had no financial flexibility to replace him. Seventh among big men and 18th overall in RPM, Horford's impact was felt on both sides of the court and will be greatly missed.
Enes Kanter is capable of collecting points and rebounds in bunches, but his RPM placed him 50th among 59 centers as he negatively impacted both ends of the court. Daniel Theis and Robert Williams III will get their shots at the starting role, but neither will come close to Horford's production.
There's also a void at the 4 thanks to the departures of Marcus Morris and Aron Baynes. In particular, the Celtics will miss Baynes' communication on the defensive end, as well as his massive size in the post. Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward have both spent time at the 4 with positive results, but neither has spent more than 42 percent of their minutes there throughout a season, per Cleaning the Glass.
Ainge can still pull a rabbit out of his hat by delivering a difference-maker before the deadline and putting the Celtics in prime position to challenge the rest of the East. But as currently constructed, this team is flawed and far from functioning as a title contender.
Brooklyn Nets
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By setting their over/under at 47 wins, Caesars has big plans for the 2019-20 Brooklyn Nets, even as they operate without Kevin Durant.
They're betting on the additional five victories coming from the acquisitions of Kyrie Irving, Taurean Prince and DeAndre Jordan. That, coupled with the development of young standouts such as Caris LeVert, Rodions Kurucs, Jarrett Allen and Sixth Man of the Year candidate Spencer Dinwiddie, hints at a surge up the standings.
But what the Nets gain in Irving's talent, they sacrifice in continuity and chemistry following the departures of D'Angelo Russell, DeMarre Carroll and Ed Davis. Russell was an All-Star in 2018-19 with averages of 25.2 points, 8.3 assists and 4.6 rebounds per 36 minutes, while Davis was second in the NBA with a 4.13 DRPM.
Controversy seems to follow Irving wherever he goes in recent seasons. Between his trade request to leave the Cleveland Cavaliers and his partnership with LeBron James, his "Earth is flat" remarks and his willingness to publicly call out his Boston Celtics teammates, he has never been one to shy away from controversy.
While the point guard's union with Durant creates a superstar tandem on paper, it also shows the size and scale of their power over the franchise.
The Nets may have been compelled to sign Jordan to four years and $40 million in a market that seemingly wouldn't support such a guarantee for the 31-year-old center. Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes had predicted he was one of the likeliest candidates to be overpaid this past offseason. Now, he might earn starts over a 21-year-old Allen months after the latter helped lead the Nets to the playoffs.
Is Jordan better at this juncture? Debatable. Is Allen the clear answer going forward? Definitely.
But regardless of the work head coach Kenny Atkinson has in front of him making this squad gel, the Nets just don't have the talent without Durant. He would immediately vault this squad into title contention, but due to the recency (June 10) and severity (ruptured Achilles) of his injury, it would shocking to see him in a Nets uniform in 2020. Even if he did return, there's no telling the level at which he would play.
Denver Nuggets
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The Denver Nuggets fell just short of advancing to the 2019 Western Conference Finals at the hands of Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers. The overachieving Blazers (without injured starting center Jusuf Nurkic) likely had no business advancing that far, and the Nuggets had every opportunity to eliminate them.
But due to the ascendance of Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, this young and improving group could have all the tools to move further in 2020.
They're just not there yet.
The Nuggets are missing an elite perimeter defender. They'll struggle to contain players such as LeBron James, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. James Harden averaged 30.5 points, 10.0 assists and 5.5 rebounds in four contests against them, and they have already been handled by CJ McCollum and Lillard.
Denver gave up 28 or more points to either McCollum or Lillard in eight instances during seven postseason contests, including McCollum's series-clinching 37-point performance.
The addition of Jerami Grant should improve the reserves on defense, and Michael Porter Jr. remains the ace up the sleeve of the organization. We could see Gary Harris return to form after he suffered significant injuries to his hip and hamstring last year. Monte Morris and Malik Beasley will continue to improve, and the Nuggets will pose a problem in the Western Conference throughout the regular season.
But the leap from squeaking by the San Antonio Spurs and falling short to the Nurkic-less Blazers to winning the NBA championship won't happen in 2019-20. The Nuggets are still one trade away.
Los Angeles Clippers
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By bringing Paul George with him to Los Angeles, reigning NBA champion and Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard dominated the offseason just after he won a title with the Toronto Raptors.
Caesars likes the super-duo's odds to win the Western Conference, setting the over/under at a tidy 55.5 wins. The hype is real in L.A., too, as TickPick reports the Clippers experienced the most significant surge in ticket sales this year.
But are we sure this is the best team in the NBA?
First, we have to check on the health and viability of its two high-priced stars.
During his first full season returning from a quad injury suffered with the San Antonio Spurs, Leonard played in just 60 contests. He missed over a quarter of the 2018-19 season due to "load management," though Toronto's star-studded roster (and the depleted Eastern Conference) still allowed him to help earn 58 wins.
Can the Clips get away with this approach? Doubtful. They are likely to push him harder this season, per Dan Woike of the Los Angeles Times, but we saw how that could impact the two-time champion just last postseason.
Paul George has his own set of challenges after beginning rehab following surgery to both shoulders (left labrum, right rotator cuff). ESPN's Ramona Shelburne reported he is targeting a November return after sitting out the preseason and all of October.
When he returns, will we see the MVP-caliber player who shot 45.3 percent from the field and 40.6 percent from three-point range before the All-Star break? Or will we see the worn-down contributor who shot 40.0 and 33.6 percent, respectively, after it?
After his unceremonious departure from San Antonio, Leonard had the perfect opportunity to fill the role of unassuming assassin with measured expectations in Toronto.
While the Raptors likely hoped Leonard could rediscover his form and make them an immediate contender, his lingering quad injury and expiring deal made his future with the franchise murky. If nothing else, they were able to move DeMar DeRozan's five-year, $139 million deal in the transaction while taking a home-run swing that ended up paying dividends.
Given the quality of Leonard's performance in 2018-19, the expectations will be far greater in Los Angeles. Not only does he now bring title aspirations with him, but he also arrived as the Clippers sent out almost the entirety of their future resources, including promising sophomore Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and veteran forward Danilo Gallinari.
Leonard signed a three-year deal (player option for 2021-22), and both pressure and blame could come with it. If the Clippers don't perform this season, the rumor mill could pick up once more.
Can Leonard handle this pressure? More importantly, can the rest of his teammates?
Los Angeles Lakers
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LeBron James, Anthony Davis and a mish-mashed group of veterans and injury concerns are projected to win just 51.5 games by Caesars. That places them fifth in the Western Conference, though they still have the highest title odds.
Combining the powers of a three-time champion and a big man one year removed from finishing in the top three for both MVP and DPOY should garner the respect and attention of the league. And yet, both failed to earn a playoff spot in 2018-19, leading the Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans to just 37 and 33 wins, respectively.
You can chalk that up to controversy if you like.
Davis may have had one foot out of the door after signing with Rich Paul of Klutch Sports, and James had his own share of misgivings with a tumultuous front office and the constant clamorings for a roster overhaul involving a potential trade for Davis. Likewise, you can blame an injury bug that plummeted the Lakers from 20-14 on Christmas Day all the way to 26-25 by the time James returned from a groin injury on Jan. 31.
The bottom line is that everyone expects these two superpowers to unite seamlessly and lead a team of reclamation projects to the NBA Finals.
I don't see it.
The Lakers carry the NBA's third-oldest roster and are hoping for yet another plus-minus miracle season from Danny Green. They have no means of adding new talent outside of a $1.75 million disabled player exception granted following DeMarcus Cousins' torn ACL, and would-be Most Improved Player candidate Kyle Kuzma is out indefinitely with a stress reaction in his left foot.
Their potential starting point guards (Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo) have also dealt with plenty of injury trouble in recent seasons.
Perhaps most alarming of all is Davis' inability to win without a second star. Should a 34-year old James miss any time at all, the Lakers will barely tread water. Davis' 4-19 record without Jrue Holiday over the past four seasons serves as an indicator of just how dependent he is on elite-level help.
The Lakers will be under the hot lamp all season long. Davis' impending free-agency will be a constant source of speculation, as will be the sustainability of Frank Vogel's role as head coach.
Can they overcome everything to challenge for the Larry O'Brien Trophy? Maybe, but it would likely take a few injuries to their primary competitors, and the Lakers are the contenders with the thinnest rotation.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, courtesy of Basketball Reference, NBA.com, ESPN and Cleaning the Glass.
