
The New-Look NBA Title Contender You Won't Find in Los Angeles
On July 4, 2017, while plenty of NBA fans were enjoying barbecues and family time, Utah Jazz faithful took an offseason gut punch.
"Free-agent Gordon Hayward plans to sign with the Boston Celtics," Chris Haynes tweeted that day. Utah's homegrown All-Star had spurned the Jazz for a reunion with his college coach, Brad Stevens.
"Timing has been problematic," then-general manager Dennis Lindsey said on July 5, per the Deseret News' Randy Hollis. "... There's not as many (free agent) prospects left on the board because of the timing."
He went on to tout Rudy Gobert, the acquisition of Ricky Rubio, Rodney Hood being a primary scorer and Derrick Favors being healthy.
Two years later, three of those four are gone. Standing in their place is a legitimate title contender built around Gobert and a rising star who was drafted shortly before Hayward left.
Thanks to some shrewd maneuvering from Lindsey, now the executive vice president of basketball operations, and new general manager Justin Zanik, Utah enters 2019-20 with a dynamic potential starting five.
Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell (2017's ray of hope), Joe Ingles, Bojan Bogdanovic and Gobert.
That's a more balanced lineup than any coach Quin Snyder has had in the NBA.
Conley and Mitchell both averaged over 20 points last season. Bogdanovic was at 18.0, but he put up 20.6 per game following Victor Oladipo's injury. All three can pass, shoot and handle.
Ingles doesn't score as much, but he's another playmaker who can run the pick-and-roll.
Over the last three seasons, Gobert's usage percentage is 17.1. Among the 181 with a rate at least that high (and with 3,000-plus minutes), Gobert's 67.5 true shooting percentage ranks first. The average true shooting percentage of that bunch is 56.1, over 11 points below Gobert.
He's one of the best rim rollers (93.1 percentile in 2018-19) and second-chance creators (77.8 percentile) in the league, and now he's surrounded by four legitimate offensive weapons.
On the other end, the loss of Favors is cause for concern. Bogdanovic is nowhere near his level defensively. But the mere presence of Gobert should allow the Jazz to remain stout.
In the last three seasons, Utah's ranks in points allowed per 100 possessions read as follows: second, first and third. Gobert was first in the NBA in defensive real plus-minus in each of those campaigns.
Conley and Mitchell may be undersized, but they'll compete on the perimeter. Ingles can make things difficult on pretty much whatever position he's asked to guard. And Royce O'Neale will come off the bench as perhaps the team's best non-Gobert defender.
There's plenty of talent on that end.
Not having Favors may cost the Jazz another top-five defense, but the upgrades on offense should more than make up for that.
The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor broke down some of what Conley will bring:
"Conley ranks annually as one of the league’s most efficient scorers in the pick-and-roll, as the chart above shows. Now he’ll join a Jazz team that finished more possessions using the pick-and-roll than any other team in the NBA, according to Synergy. Conley is so good because he changes tempos and can score from all areas of the court. Over the past six seasons, he’s hit 36 percent of his dribble-jumper 3s, 41.9 percent of his dribble-jumper 2s, and 57.6 percent of his shots around the rim. The man knows how to score. And he can pass, too. Mitchell has shot 40.1 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s in his career, and Conley will feed him more of those chances. Rudy Gobert could be in for a career-best season finishing lobs."
The jump from Rubio to Conley probably can't be overstated. Last season, Conley's advantages in points, relative true shooting percentage and real plus-minus were substantial. And defenses won't be able to ignore him the way they did Rubio for much of the last two seasons.
On plenty of possessions, Rubio's primary defender would sag down into the lane, double-team someone or otherwise play more free safety than on-ball defender. That made things exponentially more difficult for Utah's other four players.
Improvement from Mitchell should help too. That's natural for most third-year players, but perhaps even likelier for Mitchell. His usage level was a lot to ask of someone with his experience over the last two seasons. Conley and Bogdanovic commanding defensive attention should get him more open looks.
The presence of two more creators will also be good for Ingles. He's a solid point forward, but more opportunities to simply be a catch-and-shoot outlet should serve him well. Over the last three seasons, Ingles' effective field-goal percentage on catch-and-shoot opportunities is a scorching 65.5.
In the same span, Bogdanovic's effective field-goal percentage is 61.0 on catch-and-shoot attempts. And he showed an ability to be much more than that in Oladipo's absence last season.
And so far, we've only hit on the potential starting five. Utah's depth has been a key part of its success in the Snyder era. And in 2019-20, the Jazz will have Dante Exum, O'Neale, Georges Niang, Jeff Green and Ed Davis filling out the rotation. Emmanuel Mudiay and second-round pick Jarrell Brantley may even lend a hand.
Utah is loaded, and for the first time in years, modern.
The Jazz are poised to have a real shot in the post-#LightYears West.
The Golden State Warriors are down Kevin Durant (signed with the Nets) and Klay Thompson (ACL injury). They won't fold, but their weaker hand has inspired others to up the ante.
The Los Angeles Lakers added Anthony Davis to LeBron James. The Los Angeles Clippers pulled off a heist to land Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
The Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets aren't going away either. Continuity may win the day for them.
The Jazz mixed both approaches. The most important players—Gobert, Mitchell and Ingles—are all back. Utah supplemented them with Conley, Bogdanovic, Davis and Green.
Utah's success in recent years was based mostly on defense. That's still there. But now, the Jazz should be able score a little too.
If the NBA is in a post-superteam era, Utah has positioned itself to take on, and potentially beat, any other contender.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference or Cleaning the Glass.
Andy Bailey covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@AndrewDBailey) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by B/R's Dan Favale.





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