7 Bargain-Bin Players Golden State Warriors Should Target in 2018 Free Agency
The NBA economy is rigged in favor of the upper class, and the Golden State Warriors are primed to take advantage.
Capped out and already assured of a bloated tax bill (those are the breaks when you're paying four All-Stars), the Dubs have only the taxpayer's mid-level exception and league minimums to fill out the roster. That might seem like a problem, but when you've won three of the last four titles and have real rotation minutes to distribute among new acquisitions, the money goes a lot further.
The Warriors aren't just a destination for bench-riding ring-chasers. They're a team where quality vets in search of hardware or a big stage on which to showcase their skills can actually play.
So who's out there on the market to bolster Golden State's wing spots—you know, the ones so ineffectively filled last year by signees Nick Young and Omri Casspi? And who'll get in line to replenish center depth (preferably with more mobility and multiskilled play) with Zaza Pachulia, JaVale McGee, Kevon Looney and David West all free agents themselves?
The Dubs are going digging. Chances are they'll find value in the bargain bin.
Joe Harris, SG, Unrestricted
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We're stretching the definition of a bargain-bin free agent to its breaking point by including Joe Harris, a 6'6" shooting guard whose 61.3 effective field-goal percentage ranked in the 97th percentile last season. Among wings, only Kyle Korver was a more efficient scorer.
Harris is entering his age-27 season, and his elite outside shooting should make him a hot commodity. There's a great chance he'll have his pick from among several teams' full MLE of $8.6 million.
But if Harris is willing to take Golden State's entire TPMLE of $5.3 million, a substantial raise over the $1.5 million he collected from the Brooklyn Nets in 2017-18, he'd be assured rotation minutes and a massive stage to showcase his talents.
Imagine Harris spotting up on the wing (he shot an incomprehensible 45 percent on non-corner threes), while Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant sink to the corners. Meanwhile, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are orchestrating a pick-and-roll at the top of the arc. You can already see the opponent's scheme fracturing as the defenders realize they can't help off anybody.
Harris would be in line for the easiest looks of his life.
If asked to assume greater responsibilities with the reserves, Harris showed just enough acumen as a pick-and-roll ball-handler last season to add value in ways besides shooting. Defensively, he won't wow anyone, but to continue the Korver comparison, he's adequate in a team scheme and offers versatility with his size.
Plus, when you're filling a spot vacated by Young, if you don't literally fall asleep on the court, you've already raised the defensive bar.
Kyle O'Quinn, PF/C, Unrestricted
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If a David West replacement is necessary, well...here he is.
Kyle O'Quinn is in West's league from a bulk perspective, which is something you can only say about a select few. Wide in the shoulders and physically imposing (the beard helps), O'Quinn could carve out space on the glass and bang with the best of them underneath.
West shot 41 percent from 16-to-23 feet last season, but he rarely took that accuracy rate beyond the arc, hitting three of a paltry eight long-range attempts. That profile could benefit O'Quinn, who was similarly reluctant to step behind the arc but who was even better than West on long twos, hitting 44.1 percent of his attempts from that range.
West was a better finisher than O'Quinn last season, making a whopping 76.4 percent of his shots at the rim (to O'Quinn's solid 70.5) while also serving as a superior playmaker from the elbows. O'Quinn's no slouch there, though. His 16.8 assist percentage was a career high and would have tied Shaun Livingston for sixth-best on the Warriors.
O'Quinn opted out of the last year of his deal with the New York Knicks, surrendering a guaranteed salary of $4.3 million. It would be unwise for Golden State to spend its entire $5.3 million taxpayer MLE on O'Quinn with Jordan Bell and Draymond Green likely to play most of the meaningful minutes at center. But if the 28-year-old big man is willing to take a portion of that exception (or the league minimum), he'd fit in well.
Of course, if West puts off retirement for another year, it'd probably be best to hand him the minimum again and let O'Quinn look elsewhere.
Marco Belinelli, SG, Unrestricted
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Marco Belinelli could return to the team that drafted him in 2007, when winning a title in Golden State seemed impossible, and grab one as his career winds down.
Who doesn't love a little full-circle catharsis?
The Warriors were reportedly interested in Belinelli when he hit the buyout market this past spring. After watching him fly off screens and hit several key shots for the Philadelphia 76ers in the playoffs, it's difficult to imagine the Dubs' interest has diminished.
A career 37.7 percent three-point shooter, Belinelli is almost outrageously confident. He'll take and make difficult treys off the dribble when necessary, but he has always played his best when situated within a functional, intelligent, high-IQ basketball culture. The best years of his career came with the San Antonio Spurs, where he paired a daredevil's passing eye with elite standstill shooting.
Put Belinelli in a system with other shifty, intuitive players, and he comes alive. That's why he looked reborn upon joining Ben Simmons and the Sixers last year, and it's why he was so checked out with the Sacramento Kings during a forgettable 2015-16 season.
You could characterize Belinelli's dependence on surroundings as a flaw, but it's irrelevant in this scenario. He'd be joining the most intelligent, free-flowing, quick-striking offense around. Bring him off the bench and get ready for a blur of curl screens, smart cuts, buried threes and decisive playmaking.
At 32, Belinelli is winding down his career. If he'd accept most of Golden State's mid-level (he's never made more than $7 million in a season), he could thrive.
Jerami Grant, PF, Unrestricted
4 of 7It may be a stretch to ask Jerami Grant for significant minutes at center—he spent 81 percent of his minutes at the 4 last year, where he was still somewhat undersized at 6'8"—but you have to think the Warriors would slot him there.
Golden State plays small when the stakes are high, and Grant could fit in as a switchable defender who'd also provide major boosts in the hustle and athleticism departments.
Grant averaged 8.4 points and 3.9 rebounds per game for the Oklahoma City Thunder last year, and though he hasn't established consistency from long distance yet (career 30.1 percent on threes), he's at least getting up some attempts. He's averaged 2.9 attempts per 36 minutes over four seasons.
That matters. Defenders can't ignore him out there.
More than anything, it'd be nice to have a player with Grant's aggression. He tries to dunk just about everything around the basket, often from bizarre angles. This approach leads to some spectacular failures, but the Warriors would take it over, say, Pachulia's fearful, ground-bound forays around the basket.
In 2017-18, 18.4 percent of Grant's field goals were dunks. Pachulia checked in at 4.9 percent.
Slams aren't everything, but the statistical disparity highlights the athletic gains Golden State could make with Grant on the roster.
Nerlens Noel, C, Unrestricted
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If the Warriors coaxed solid behavior out of Nick Young for a season (and JaVale McGee for two!), they're primed for a heat check on the "our culture can assimilate anyone" front.
Enter Nerlens Noel, hot dog-seeking ne'er-do-well, 2013 lottery stud and still tantalizingly talented center.
Noel turned down a $70 million offer last July 1, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, playing instead on the Dallas Mavericks' $4.1 million qualifying offer with apparently plans to top the massive deal he rejected. In an all-time "life comes at you fast" turnabout, Noel is now a candidate for little more than a short-term, low-dollar deal.
The theoretical version of Noel—a long, bouncy defensive menace with a nose for the ball and the ups to finish lobs—would be worth much more than the MLE to Golden State. But since the Dubs can't be sure how much of that player is still inside Noel (or how readily he'll shape up character-wise in a title pursuit), it might not even cost them that much.
The Warriors can't quite treat their roster spots like experiments, but taking a gamble on Noel is worth it—even if this stop ends as disappointingly as the one in Dallas. If there's a chance Noel, 24, can replicate his production in Philly (11.1 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.8 blocks, 1.5 steals per game in 2015-16), he'd be a steal.
Josh Huestis, SF, Unrestricted
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Josh Huestis is 26 years old, which means it's probably a mistake to expect any kind of leap in production. But the defensive-minded small forward wouldn't need to get significantly better to be a fine fit with the Warriors.
Huestis' game is strictly perimeter-based, as 63.2 percent of his shots came from beyond the arc last year. He converted just 28.7 percent of them while contributing little else on offense. That's an ugly profile, but Huestis' shot looks pretty good.
With solid form like his, it's reasonable to attribute his struggles, at least partially, to bad luck or a lack of confidence. Huestis is a poor finisher who struggles to create his own looks, and his viability in a quality offense depends on improvement from outside.
If he could get that three-point hit rate up around 34 percent, the Warriors would have something. Huestis is 6'7", quick, long and sturdier than you think at 230 pounds. That size should allow him to play some small-ball 4. At that position, low-30s accuracy from deep would be fine—especially coming from a player who could guard four positions.
Huestis is a low-risk, moderate-reward target who should come cheap. The Thunder declined his fourth-year option and cannot pay him more than $2.2 million per season on a new deal. The Warriors could offer the minimum and have a great shot at landing him. And if they believe Huestis has another level to reach, they could dip into part of the MLE.
Nemanja Bjelica, PF, Restricted
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If you squint hard enough, you can see some Nikola Mirotic in Nemanja Bjelica, a 6'10" power forward with a reliable outside stroke and enough zip off the bounce to attack a closeout and make a play.
Bjelica fell out of favor with head coach Tom Thibodeau last year (something that's true of basically every bench player on the roster), despite shooting 41.5 percent from deep.
Unable to play center and overmatched when chasing more mobile power forwards, Bjelica isn't quite bad enough that the Warriors would have to scheme specifically to support him on D. But he'd be a postseason target for smart opponents.
That's a problem to worry about down the line, and when you're talking about minimum salaries, which might be all it takes to get Bjelica, it's still worth having a capable forward eating up rotation minutes during the regular season—especially when you have to rest starters who've logged four straight trips to the Finals.
A canny passer, Bjelica would benefit from the space and intuitive movement in Golden State's offense. Plus, anyone who pulls the old "inbound the ball off the opponent's backside" play is worth a look.
Though restricted, Bjelica, 30, may not be a retention priority for the Minnesota Timberwolves—regardless of price. Golden State could swoop in with a minimum deal and grab him.
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