The Patriots Would Have Regretted Trading Rob Gronkowski

Now that the New England Patriots traded wide receiver Brandin Cooks to the Los Angeles Rams, ESPN's Adam Schefter has reported that the Pats will not be dealing superstar tight end Rob Gronkowski. 

If that's the case, New England fans have dodged a bullet.  

Had Patriots head coach Bill Belichick opted to trade Gronkowski, he would have run the risk of entering the 2018 NFL season with a roster lacking the talent to compete with emerging NFC heavyweights, as well as New England's top-flight AFC counterparts. 

A Gronkowski trade would have given fellow Super Bowl contenders such as the Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints a leg up on a Patriots roster that is quickly resembling a shell of its former self. And a deal involving Gronk could have even tipped the AFC scales in favor of the Pittsburgh Steelers (who have more top-end talent as is) or the Jacksonville Jaguars (who are already much deeper).

The Patriots have made three of the last four Super Bowls, but as team that hasn't drafted a player in the top 25 since 2012, New England has become too thin to sacrifice Gronk. 

They might have won the AFC Championship in both 2016 and 2017, but the Pats cruised through one of the weakest divisions in the weaker of the two conferences. And according to Football Outsiders' adjusted games lost formula, only 10 teams were healthier during that span. 

Although the Patriots went 13-3 in 2017, tbey ranked lower than the Eagles, Vikings, Rams, Saints and Steelers in terms of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at Football Outsiders. 

And while at least Philly, Minnesota, Los Angeles and New Orleans appeared to get better in free agency, New England lost stalwart left tackle Nate Solder, playmaking cornerback Malcolm Butler, flashy running back Dion Lewis and productive veteran wide receiver Danny Amendola in March before trading Cooks to the Rams this week. 

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Just two Patriots regular position players (excluding special-teamers, kickers, punters, long snappers and fullbacks) made the Pro Bowl in 2017, marking the first time this decade in which fewer than three have earned that honor. One was soon-to-be 41-year-old quarterback Tom Brady, and the other was Gronkowski. 

Patriots Pro Bowlers by year this decade
2010: 8
2011: 7
2012: 6
2013: 3
2014: 3
2015: 5
2016: 3
2017: 2

As you can see, the Patriots have been producing fewer Pro Bowlers of late than in the early part of the decade. But until the Cooks deal, there was chatter that they could trade away arguably the most dominant player on their roster, partly or entirely because Belichick and Gronk might not see eye-to-eye.

That's bizarre. 

The Pats were missing Edelman and Pro Bowl linebacker Dont'a Hightower for all or most of the 2017 season, but even if both return to form, they wouldn't be capable of filling voids left by Gronkowski, Solder, Butler, Lewis and Amendola. Cooks was simply more expendable. 

Brady can't keep Father Time pinned down forever. Eventually, he'll become a less effective, more vulnerable quarterback. And when that happens to quarterbacks, it usually happens suddenly. 

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

The Patriots have already lost the steady 29-year-old offensive tackle who has protected Brady on the blind side for the last seven seasons, but that was business. The Pats didn't have the ability to use the franchise tag on Solder, and the New York Giants made him the highest-paid offensive lineman in professional football. 

While it's one thing to let Brady's most important offensive lineman get away, it's another thing to willfully part ways with his top offensive weapon.

Backup tight end Dwayne Allen is decent, but he isn't a game-changer like Gronkowski and he can't play the same role as a security blanket. Allen caught just 10 of the 22 passes thrown his way in 2017 and is the same age as Gronkowski (28), who is slated to cost New England only about $6 million more than Allen over the course of the next two seasons. 

The Patriots won the Super Bowl without Gronkowski in 2016, but that was a different team—one that still had Solder, Butler and a healthy Hightower. They flopped down the stretch without Solder in 2015. And last time Brady played a game without both Solder and Gronkowski, he threw two interceptions, took four sacks and posted a 71.4 passer rating in a 2015 home loss to an Eagles team that was 4-7 and hadn't won in regulation in six weeks. 

Without both, a less-protected old Brady would have found himself with smaller targets all over the field, because Gronk's presence alone often frees up fellow pass-catchers in that offense. 

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press/Associated Press/Associated Press

So if the Patriots believe they can win without Gronkowski just because they did two years ago, they're mistaken. They've changed, and so has the competition. They failed to win the Super Bowl with Gronk in 2017, and if new catch rules were adopted a year earlier, they probably wouldn't have earned the top seed in the AFC. 

A Gronkowski trade would have confirmed that Belichick had reached the height of hubris. The man might be a football genius, but sometimes it appears he believes his brain is more integral his team's success than the players themselves. 

That mentality might have been the reason Butler stood on the sideline for four quarters as the Patriots defense was continually gashed in Super Bowl LII. 

A couple months after their head coach's arrogance quite possibly cost the team a championship, Patriots fans are fortunate that Belichick's my-way-or-the-highway ego didn't cause him to commit another act of self-sabotage by trading away arguably his best player. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon