Golden State Warriors: 5 Early-Season Takeaways
The 2017-18 Golden State Warriors are loaded, perhaps too packed with elite talent for their own good.
It's a great problem to have, and one that should keep them in the championship discussion right through to the end. But with the Warriors already battling the effects of a truncated preseason and a trip to China, this isn't the ideal environment to feel any sense of urgency—hence their head-scratching 4-3 record.
Golden State still boasts the sixth-best net efficiency rating, because that's a park of fielding a historically dominant roster. But this isn't the buzz saw everyone expected to see, and it could be a while before that machine revs up.
So, what should be made of the Warriors' sluggish start? Funny you should ask because we've assembled the five top takeaways from the early slate right here.
The Depth Is Real, and It's Spectacular
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That the Dubs possess a potent second team should surprise no one. They had the Association's second-best bench last season with a 7.4 net rating, then strengthened it with Nick Young's shooting, Omri Casspi's system-friendly skills and rookie Jordan Bell's explosiveness.
Still, who had Kevon Looney making non-garbage-time contributions in October? Maybe we should've seen that coming, too, since the third-year big man showed up to training camp looking like he'd finally grasped the concept that less can be more.
"An overhauled diet and intensive summer workout regimen helped him shed 30 pounds from his 6'9" frame," Connor Letourneau of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote. "Now the lightest he has been since his junior year of high school at 220 pounds, Looney can play extended minutes without grabbing his shorts to gasp for breath."
This roster has become an embarrassment of riches. Golden State can cycle from one good (or great) option to the next until it finds the right hot-hand combination for that night. The Warriors haven't always had minutes for Bell (possibly this draft's biggest steal) or JaVale McGee (last year's on-court net rating leader at 18.7). Rest time is readily available for anyone who needs it.
All of it works to widen the gap between Golden State and everyone else. As if the superior star power weren't enough, the Warriors are also built to dominate the numbers game against anyone.
They Look Bored
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Head coach Steve Kerr cautioned this could happen.
The Warriors know they are great. They couldn't block that information from themselves if they tried (they don't). They left 2016-17 with unprecedented regular-season success and their second world title in three years. They returned with improved chemistry and an upgraded supporting cast.
No one is in their orbit. If they brought their Finals focus on a nightly basis, they'd prove Kevin Garnett's "anything is possible!" declaration prescient. You're talking about a team that, if it wanted to, could have made a run at 74 victories or a 34-game winning streak. Maybe both.
But Golden State isn't chasing regular-season goals. It doesn't want to burn out too quickly, not when it can go a couple of notches below full throttle and still find its way to the front. The Warriors seem content to test their switch-flipping abilities and see how much sleepwalking they can get away with, even if puts some unexpected losses on the record.
"Our mental conditioning is not where it needs to be," Kerr said, per Bay Area News Group's Logan Murdock. "We call a few plays and all of a sudden one guy is out of position so we don't get the full execution. We don't box out. We aren't mentally conditioned more than physically. I think that's the problem now."
If the Warriors are bored, though, at least they aren't boring us. Would you rather watch a string of 20-point victories instead of on-court kerfuffles, $50,000 mouthpiece tosses, self alley-oops and late-game escape acts? Neither would they, apparently.
Curry, Durant Both Belong in MVP Discussion
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There are two popular arguments for holding Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant out of any MVP projections.
The first says their combined talent level is so great it works against them. Essentially, each is such an awe-inspiring force on his own, it's impossible to construe the other as being most valuable. That was the most common rationale to explain why neither finished among the top five in last season's voting even though Durant was second in player efficiency rating (27.6) and Curry was third in ESPN.com's real plus-minus (7.41).
There's also a lack of consensus regarding which megastar is more important.
Stat geeks have a hard time going away from Curry, given his unparalleled gravitational pull on defenders and the numerical impact that has on Golden State's bottom line (16.2 points better per 100 possessions with him than without last season). But Kerr is around them every day, and he said on The Lowe Post that Durant makes the bigger impact (via ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton).
"Steph is...incredibly dominant in terms of the way he impacts a game," Kerr said. "But you're talking about Kevin Durant at 6'11" protecting the rim, scoring 35 a game in the Finals and getting to the line, doing whatever he wants to do. There's a different level of impact that is actually possible for Steph and for KD."
The Dubs, of course, don't have to choose between Curry and Durant. MVP voters shouldn't either. Each is on course to have a deserving candidacy in his own right. The only time Curry averaged more points per 36 minutes he was named unanimous MVP. And if Durant finds his touch at the foul line, he could finish this season north of 25 points per game with a 50/40/90 slash and multiple rejections per game.
Turnover Problem May Never Be Solved
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The line between Golden State's highlights and bloopers is wafer-thin. The outcome of a play can determine if it's carefree or careless, and every Warriors possession has potential to go either direction.
It's rooted in the freedom with which Kerr allows his players to operate. A fully functional ad-libbed attack would be the proverbial unstoppable force, and when this offense is rolling, it showcases the same unpredictability and independence within solidarity as good jazz music.
The Dubs can freelance with a near-half-court triple, a point guard post-up or anything in between. But their commitment to showmanship leads to far too many unnecessary risks. Golden State continues giving away possessions with lazy passes, highlights gone awry and a level of focus that nearly belies its collective hoops IQ and skill level.
"In the rare moments over the past few years where the Warriors have looked vulnerable, it has been because they have been too sloppy," CBSSports.com's James Herbert wrote. "A perfect balance of execution and improvisation might not be possible, but they must keep working toward it."
The Warriors have long been their own worst enemy, but their self-inflicted wounds are becoming a more common occurrence. After coughing up 25 giveaways in Sunday's loss to the Detroit Pistons (three-plus by every starter), Golden State sits 28th in turnovers per game (18.4) and 29th in turnover percentage (18.0). Both marks would easily be the worst of Kerr's three-plus-year tenure.
They're Still the Favorites
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Overreaction October is gorging on Golden State's uncharacteristic opening.
The Dubs' first two losses were decided by a total of 11 points and against 2017 playoff participants. Still, people were asking, What's wrong? Tack on another defeat to Detroit—which already tallied some impressive victories and had to overcome a double-digit second-half deficit—and some feel the need to caution fans not to panic, advice only given when panic-friendly conditions are perceived.
The sky isn't falling, folks. It's just that any Warriors' misstep is magnified by their own standard of excellence. They're going through the motions and still boast a more efficient offense (115.6) than last season (113.2). Scoring is up for the Curry-Durant-Klay Thompson troika (75.8 points from 72.7), and Draymond Green has increased his assists (7.4 from 7.0).
"As long as everyone's healthy, it's still too hard to move the Dubs from the top [of the rankings]," Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes wrote. "Frame it this way: If the Warriors were playing any of the other 29 teams tomorrow on a neutral court, you'd still pick the Dubs to win. Everyone would."
Barring catastrophic injury, it's almost impossible to imagine that changing this season. Even a significant ailment isn't enough to stop them, as they showed last season during Durant's 20-game absence. The West's No. 1 seed is theirs to lose, and a title is again there for the taking.
Knowing all of the above hasn't helped Golden State's start. But it's the reason you can see a stumble here and there and not worry about it blossoming into something bigger.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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