Los Angeles Dodgers: Final 2017 Trade Deadline Predictions, Fact or Fiction
With the best record in baseball and a massive lead in the National League Central, it's fair to say the Los Angeles Dodgers are headed to the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season. The club they've assembled for 2017 has been tremendous, with no major weaknesses, as evidenced during a recent stretch where they won 31 of 35 games.
But just making the playoffs isn't good enough, not when the previous four trips (with similarly strong teams) failed to produce a World Series appearance. Anything short of the Fall Classic will be considered a disappointment this season, which means the Dodgers have to find a way to ensure they get over the hump.
That's where the upcoming July 31 trade deadline comes in. Though the Dodgers don't have any major needs, that doesn't mean they can't bolster their roster with talent from other teams. The key is making sure not to give up too much for additions that aren't imperative.
How will the Dodgers handle the next few days? Check out our rundown of their situation as the trade deadline looms.
Team Needs
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Starting pitching
Even before ace Clayton Kershaw was put on the disabled list with a lower back strain the Dodgers were in the market for someone to add to a superb (but injury-prone) rotation. Now getting another capable starter seems imperative, if only because the likelihood that further ailments will befall the staff is high.
Kershaw, expected to miss four to six weeks, per Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal,ย is the seventh different starting pitcher (and 24th player overall) put on the DL this season. Brandon McCarthy went on the 10-day DL with a blister problem on July 23, replaced by Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has missed time with foot and hip issues. Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda and Alex Wood have also been on the DL at one time or another, while Scott Kazmir has yet to throw this season while recovering from hip tightness.
The Dodgers have been lucky in that these injuries have been mostly spread out, thus leaving themselves with four or five capable starters. There's no guarantee that would continue, though, so adding another strong armโpreferably one without a history of getting hurtโwould be a major plus.
Relief pitching
The Dodgers have arguably the best bullpen in baseball, at least from a numbers standpoint. Their non-starters allow 3.36 runs per game, tops in the majors, and their pen has only been responsible for eight losses and 11 blown saves.
Closer Kenley Jansen has been lights-out, with 25 saves (in 26 chances) with a 1.42 ERA and just three walks against 65 strikeouts over 42.1 innings. Pedro Baez, Josh Fields and Brandon Morrow have also all been incredibly reliable, with only Sergio Romoโwho was traded to the Tampa Bay for cash on July 22โhaving an off year.
But you can never have too many lockdown relievers come playoff time, and getting one who throws from the left side would be particularly helpful.
Bench hitting
The Dodgers are fifth in MLB in runs per game (5.14) and tied for second in on-base percentage (.342) thanks to a starting lineup that has a strong mix of sluggers, contact hitters and good eyes. The same can't be said of their bench, though, which only features three players making for an 11-hitter rotation.
Subs are hitting just .231 with eight home runs and a .695 OPS this season; the pinch hitters are not much better at .256 with four homers in 186 plate appearances.
Help could be on the way eventually in the form of injured hitters like Andre Ethier and Adrian Gonzalez, but there's no telling how effective either would be when they come back. Adding veteran hitters who can come off the bench, start on occasion or, most importantly, pinch hit in a clutch situation could mean the difference between another disappointing postseason and one that includes the World Series.
Top Trade Chips
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Rated as having the sixth-best farm system in baseball prior to the season, per MLB Pipeline, the Los Angeles Dodgers have pulled from that well-stocked minor league system to help their big-league club in 2017. First baseman Cody Bellinger is the front-runner for the National League Rookie of the Year, while catcher Austin Barnes has fared well as Yasmani Grandal's backup.
Now we see how valuable the Dodgers' many prospects are to other teams. Last year, they were able to parlay some of their minor-league surplus to acquire Rich Hill and Josh Reddick at the trade deadline, and similar acquisitions will be the result of flipping future talent for instant help.
RHP Yadier Alvarez
Alvarez signed for $16 million out of Cuba in 2015 and just turned 21 a few months ago. He was recently promoted to Double-A after posting a 5.31 ERA with 61 strikeouts and 25 walks in 59.1 innings. A power arm who is still working on controlling it, he is a high-ceiling talent who will attract interest from teams building for beyond 2018.
2B/OF Willie Calhoun
Calhoun has averaged a home run roughly every five games during his short minor-league career, with 27 last season at Double-A and 23 so far this year at Triple-A. He's spent most of his time in the infield but projects more as an outfielder either with the Dodgers or someone else.
OF Trayce Thompson
The brother of Golden State Warriors star Klay Thompson spent most of 2016 with the Dodgers, but he's gone back and forth between them and Triple-A this season, returning to the minors earlier this week. He was hitting just .119 with one home run in 19 games this season but at only 26, he's still got upside and, thus, trade value for a team looking for a right-handed corner outfielder who can play immediately.
OF Alex Verdugo
A second-round pick in 2014, Verdugo was a standout left-handed pitcher in high school, but the Dodgers have seen his best value as a hitter. At Triple-A, he's hitting better than .330 and has great defensive skills that should someday make him an everyday starter in center field.
The Dream Scenario
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Considering the injury issues the Dodgers' starting rotation has experienced it stands to reason that durability during the playoffs could be a problem. Few teams go beyond a fourth starter during the postseason, though, and many stick to just three if they can swing it...and that's a big if with the Dodgers.
The Dodgers have been tied to many starting pitchers, most notably Texas Rangers ace Yu Darvish, whom manager Dave Roberts cited on his own when Los Angeles Times columnist Bill Plaschke asked if Clayton Kershaw's injury would prompt the team to add a starter at the trade deadline.
The trouble with going after someone like Darvish, though, is thatย it might take a big prospect package to add him because the Rangers are still in theย American Leagueย Wild Card race. They might be able to add another available ace for fewer prospects if they were willing to take on that player's hefty contract.
We're referring to Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers, who is due $28 million apiece for 2018 and 2019 (with a $22 million vesting option in 2020) as well as the remainder of this year's $28 million salary. The 34-year-old righty is 5-7 with a 4.50 ERA this season, but he was second in the AL Cy Young voting in 2016 and has plenty of playoff experience.
Just imagine a 1-2 punch of Kershaw and Verlander, with Rich Hill and Alex Wood following them in the rotation.
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Fact or Fiction on Latest Trade Rumors
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Dodgers acquire another team's No. 1 starter (Fiction):ย Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthalย revealed Texas aceย Yuย Darvish's no-trade listย on Wednesday, and the Los Angeles Dodgers were not on it. But neither was Houston or the New York Yankees, two other teams heavily mentioned in connection with Darvish.
Other front-line starters who have been linked to the Dodgers include Detroit's Justin Verlander, though Rosenthal noted they're โoutโ of the running for him because of the salary they'd have to take on.
As big a move as it would be to land one of those big names, there are plenty of other available starters out there who aren't as expensive in terms of the prospects the Dodgers would have to give up. Assuming Clayton Kershaw's back injury isn't too serious, as all signs indicate, and the duo of Rich Hill and Alex Wood can stay strong, a fourth starter for the playoffs doesn't have to be of the top-tier variety to be effective.
An NL East reliever joins the bullpen (Fact): Whether it be Philadelphia setup man Pat Neshek or New York Mets closer Addison Reed, it's looking good that the Dodgers will be adding some bullpen help from a team on the East Coast. Baltimore closer Zach Britton was also on that list for a while, but ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reported Wednesday the likelihood of the Orioles dealing him are โgrowing slimmer by the dayโ because of a lack of viable offers.
That means Neshek or Reed are the focus, and it could be either one. Crasnick reported earlier this week that the Dodgers (along with four other teams) have had scouts on hand to scout Neshek, a 36-year-old righty who has a 1.12 ERA and an 0.818 WHIP in 43 appearances for the last-place Phillies.
Reed, who is 18-of-20 in save chances for the Mets, has walked just six batters in 48 innings of work. ESPN's Buster Olney reported over the weekend on the interest the Dodgers had in him.
Final Deadline Predictions
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With one of the deepest farm systems in baseball and the motivation to do whatever it takes to win this season, the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to make some moves before the deadline. Failing to add both a starter and a reliever would be considered a major disaster and would serve as an early excuse for if they fail to advance to the World Series for the first time since 1988.
Yu Darvish would be a great addition but so, too, would someone like St. Louis' Lance Lynn, who would be capable of making just as much an impact during the postseason. And with the Dodgers adding at least one good arm to the bullpen the starters won't need to go more than six innings in any playoff game, further lessening the need for a guy who can go the distance.
One thing that hasn't been the subject of many trade rumors is the Dodgers' need to bolster their bench in order to have some options later in games. The current crop won't cut it, so look for them to add a veteran who can be called on for a pinch-hit or two.
Statistics are provided by Baseball Reference and MiLB.com, unless otherwise noted. Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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