Pittsburgh Steelers: Over/Under Predictions for 2017 Season

There are many ways to make predictions about an NFL team's upcoming season, but few are more fun than setting a few over/under lines and determining whether the team or a specific will reach those goals.

For the Pittsburgh Steelers, there are numerous categories that can be dived into using this approach.

Here are a few key stat lines the Steelers will be aiming to reach this year and attendant analysis to determine whether they can. 

Win Total

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Over/Under: 10.5

Prediction: Over

OddsShark.com has Pittsburgh's over/under on their 2017 win total at 10.5, which seems like a smart place to start when discussing the team's potential win-loss record.

Last season, the Steelers went 11-5, even with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger missing a game due to injury, the starters being rested in Week 17 and wideout Martavis Bryant serving a year-long suspension.

With everyone healthy and Bryant reinstated by the league—and the Steelers' current strength of schedule tied for the fifth-easiest—it's not hard to imagine another 11 or even 12 wins in 2017. 

This could all be thwarted by ill-timed injuries, regression from players ranging from Roethlisberger to the offensive line, the defense not being as all-around improved as expected and the vagaries of their upcoming schedule.

While this season's opponents combined for a win percentage of .453 a year ago, an offseason can change a lot for a number of teams on the Steelers' docket. 

Further, a chain of night games that span from Weeks 11 through 14 (and the potential for a fifth in Week 15 against the New England Patriots) could be the make-or-break part of the Steelers' season.

But based on the makeup of the Steelers' roster as it stands, their recent success (which led them to the AFC Championship Game in January) and a schedule that is—on paper—manageable, it's hard not to take the over.

Points Per Game

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Over/Under: 30.0

Prediction: Under

Since 2015, Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Todd Haley's goal has been to get his side of the ball to average 30 points per game. Though the Steelers have come close, averaging 24.4 points in 2016 and 25.4 in 2015, the hope is this year is the one in which the team makes that big breakthrough.

But averaging 30 points per game is a difficult task. Only the Atlanta Falcons managed it in 2016 (at 34.1), though the New Orleans Saints came close, at 29.3. In 2015, the Carolina Panthers topped out at 31.1 points per game (followed by the Arizona Cardinals at 29.4). Using that logic, only one team will reach that threshold in 2017, though others will come close.

That's not to say the Steelers will not, or cannot, be the one team that reaches or surpasses 30 points per game this year. The offense is certainly capable of scoring points—including the playoffs, Pittsburgh had 30 or more points per game six times a season ago. And it now has the returning Bryant as well as second-round draft pick JuJu Smith-Schuster to add scoring opportunities and greater odds of red-zone success. 

However, the Steelers averaging 27 to 29 points per game is not the same as 30. It is a more than respectable points-per-game average, though, and one that should be good enough to win them more games than they lose.

While the Steelers are set up well to score a lot of points this year, 30 per game is a difficult number for even the most prolific offenses to reach.

Antonio Brown Receiving Yards

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Over/Under: 1,500

Prediction: Over

In five of his seven seasons, Steelers receiver Antonio Brown has posted over 1,000 receiving yards, including the last four seasons.

Twice he has earned more than 1,500, and in another—2013—he came just one yard shy of that number in the regular season. And it looks like 2017 may be Brown's latest year to reach and surpass 1,500 yards.

In 2014, Brown had 129 catches for 1,698 yards; and in 2015, he had another 136 receptions for 1,834. And the common denominator for both seasons—or at least for most of both—was the presence of fellow wideout Bryant on the field with him.

It's not that Brown is unproductive without him (he had 106 catches for 1,284 yards in 2016 while Bryant was suspended for the full year), but when quarterback Roethlisberger has a full complement of his starting wideouts on the field with him, that not only gives him options, it also puts Brown in one-on-one coverage situations. And when he is in a man-to-man situation, he wins far more often than not.

With Bryant, running back Le'Veon Bell (a receiving threat in his own right who had 75 catches for 616 yards a year ago), rookie Smith-Schuster, slot receiver Eli Rogers and tight end Jesse James all needing attention from defenses in coverage, that sets up Brown to make the most of the targets thrown his way.

More potential receivers on the field does not dilute Brown's opportunities to contribute but rather fortifies the impact he will make with the ball in his hands. Thus, surpassing 1,500 receiving yards does not seem far fetched for him this year.

T.J. Watt Starts

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Over/Under: Eight

Prediction: Over

The Steelers' 2017 Round 1 draft pick, outside linebacker T.J. Watt, has spent all of minicamp and OTAs working with the first-team defense, mostly as a way to keep 39-year-old James Harrison fresh and ready for the regular season.

However, it also means the majority of Watt's upcoming training camp will be spent with the defensive starters, effectively fast-tracking his path to getting on the field.

If outside linebackers coach Joey Porter was to be believed when he said in June, "As many practices as we've had I can count how many mistakes [Watt has] made on one hand. And that's rare," then Watt may be taking over for Harrison as a starter—here, meaning playing the first defensive snap of a game—sooner than later.

Watt is clearly the heir apparent for Harrison, who may be in his final season with the Steelers. Developing him over the summer and then letting him loose in the regular season would not only be good for Watt as a young player but also positive for Harrison (allowing him to avoid further or unnecessary wear and tear) and thus good for Pittsburgh's defense as a whole.

Rookie linebackers starting for the Steelers' defense is not as rare as it used to be. Their 2015 Round 1 pick, Bud Dupree, had five starts in his first season. So did Ryan Shazier in 2014, though he was limited to only nine games due to injuries. In 2013, Round 1 pick Jarvis Jones started eight games. And if Watt is a fast learner, keeping him off the field will not be an option.

Watt won't get all of the starts. There will be times in which Harrison, or even Arthur Moats, gets the nod to open games over the rookie. But it would come as no surprise if the 22-year-old's starts total more than half of the Steelers' regular-season games this year.

Bud Dupree Sacks

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Over/Under: 10.0

Prediction: Under

As a rookie in 2015, Steelers linebacker Dupree totaled four sacks—a good performance for a first-year player and something on which to build.

But a groin injury suffered in last year's OTAs lingered through the preseason and into the regular season, costing him nine games. But in seven regular-season games, he earned 4.5 sacks—the second-highest total on the team behind Harrison's five—and another half-sack in the playoffs.

Expectations for the now-healthy Dupree are high, so much so that former NFL player and pass-rushing guru Chuck Smith—with whom the 24-year-old trains in the offseason—believes he will be the league's Defensive Player of the Year for 2017.

The Steelers' shift in defensive philosophy may help that effort. With the employment of more man coverage in the secondary comes a new emphasis on three- and four-man rushes on opposing quarterbacks (rather than the Steelers' typical reliance on blitzing).

Defensive coordinator Keith Butler said in June that the plan is "to play conventional coverages with conventional people playing those coverages with conventional people rushing the passer. ... We got to be able to put pressure on the quarterbacks with just four men."

Will this lead to double-digit sacks for Dupree in 2017? Last year, no Steelers defender came close (again, Harrison led the team with five) even though the defense as a whole ranked ninth in the league with 38 total sacks.

While the switch in strategy works in Dupree's favor, and the end of his 2016 season shows he's capable of being a highly productive pass-rusher, 10 sacks or more may be a tall order, especially with Harrison, T.J. Watt, Arthur Moats and even Anthony Chickillo given opportunities to pressure quarterbacks this year.

Eight sacks seems the more likely, if conservative, number for Dupree this season.

Martavis Bryant Touchdowns

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Over/Under: Eight

Prediction: Over

In the two seasons prior to his year-long suspension in 2016, Bryant developed a reputation as a touchdown-scoring threat nearly every time he touched the football.

Though he caught only 26 passes during his rookie season, eight went for touchdowns—or a touchdown percentage of 30.8. In 2015, six of his 50 catches were for scores, or 12 percent. Now he's back with the team, Bryant should again be a major source of offensive points for the Steelers in 2017.

An over/under of eight touchdowns for Bryant seems like a reasonable baseline. Assuming that 12 percent of his catches go for touchdowns this year and his receptions rise to around 65, then eight becomes a jumping-off point for him.

But it should also be noted that Bryant's receptions per game rose from 2.6 to 4.5 from 2014 to 2015. At 4.5 catches per game, that would give him 72 receptions on the year and, at 12 percent, it would yield a minimum of nine touchdowns.

However, Bryant seems capable of accomplishing even more than that this year. He's newly focused after his year away from the game and his team. He's gained weight, he has been training intensively in the weeks leading up to training camp and his ability to outrun and tower over opposing cornerbacks hasn't waned.

Bryant may not score a touchdown on 30 percent of his receptions, but he could produce points for the Steelers on more than 12 percent of them. The math, at least, seems to point to more than eight touchdowns for the 25-year-old this year.

Le'Veon Bell Receptions

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Over/Under: 80

Prediction: Push

In 2016, only one running back—the Arizona Cardinals' David Johnson—had more receptions than Le'Veon Bell, and had the Steelers man played in all 16 regular-season games, he could have surpassed him.

Bell caught 75 passes for 616 yards a year ago, a stat line only topped by his 2014 performance, when he caught 83 passes for 854 yards.

Bell has become as important to Pittsburgh's passing game as he has to their rushing offense, and though that has yet to be rewarded in the form of a long-term contract (Monday's deadline for the franchise-tagged Bell and the Steelers to come to an agreement passed with nothing signed), another big year for Bell in both aspects of the offense will likely lead him to a solid payday from Pittsburgh or another team.

Simply put, few backs can handle the kind of rushing and receiving workload Steelers offensive coordinator Haley has put on Bell's shoulders. And with Bell planning on being an even better player in 2017 (with an eye to his financial security, to be sure), one must expect him to be among the Steelers' receiving leaders as well as their top runner.

Bell averaged 6.3 receptions per game a year ago, up from the 4.8 in 2014. Some of that increased workload was due to roster necessity, though, with Bryant suspended for all of 2016, Markus Wheaton (now departed in free agency) injured for much of it and not a lot of high-end depth in the receiving corps behind Antonio Brown.

With Brown still with the team, Bryant reinstated, Smith-Schuster added via the draft and tight end James likely to have an expanded role as a receiver, Bell's targets and thus receptions could dip. 

However, he doesn't seem destined for those receptions to dip back down to the 4.8 per game they were in 2014; even if it did, that would still total around 77 catches on the season. Thus, 80 catches is not only an appropriate baseline for Bell's receptions this year, it's an achievable one as well.

Two-Point Conversion Attempts

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Over/Under: 10

Prediction: Under

When the NFL moved the extra-point try from the two-yard line to the 15-yard line in 2015, it seemed inevitable that two things would happen: Extra points would become more difficult to kick and two-point conversions attempts—still executed from the two-yard line—would increase. Both have proved true, and no team has embraced the latter change more than the Steelers.

Over the last two years, they have attempted 20 two-point conversions, more than any team in the NFL. But the results have been mixed: In 2015, they succeeded on eight-of-11 (72.7 percent) and in 2016, they made only three-of-nine (33.3 percent). Pittsburgh even went zero-for-four in two-point attempts in just one game last year, a Week 10 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys also missed two in that game.

The two-year average brings the Steelers' conversion percentage on two-point tries to 55 percent, or around where the league as a whole averaged a year ago. Now that the playing field seems to be leveling around Pittsburgh's signature special teams play, it's quite possible the team opts to attempt it less often this year.

With 11 tries two years ago and nine last season, an over/under average of 10 is the only fair way to go. But, if the Steelers have grown wary of trying such a play—given how often it did not succeed a year ago—they may feel more comfortable letting Chris Boswell go for a one-point kick after touchdowns rather than being quick to chase two.

For this reason, the Steelers' two-point tries should be under 10 attempts this year.