Predicting 2017-18 Roster Changes for Warriors After NBA Finals

The Golden State Warriors are kings of the basketball world once again, but changes to their roster could abound this summer. 

Only five members of the 2016-17 title-winning team are guaranteed to be under contract July 1, and the front office figures to have some dicey decisions to make when it comes to re-signing key veterans.

And in some cases, they will have nothing to do with performance. 

Rather, the Warriors have to assess whether they can afford to keep their roster intact. As ESPN.com's Zach Lowe noted, bringing back Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and Zaza Pachulia after re-signing Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant could put the Warriors $20 million over the luxury tax next season and $30 million over the tax threshold at the start of the 2018-19 campaign. 

With those parameters in mind, we're going to break down the future of each of the Warriors' impending free agents and predict whether they'll return to the Bay Area with a chance to capture back-to-back titles. 

Kevin Durant (Player Option) and Stephen Curry (Unrestricted Free Agent)

Let's not waste time here. 

Durant is the reigning Finals MVP, and Curry is the face of the franchise. They have every incentive to stick around and morph into a dynasty of epic proportions, and everything they've said to this point indicates they'll embrace that mode of operation: 

In fact, Durant sounds so committed that he could reportedly re-sign at something of a discount to give the Warriors more financial flexibility.

According to ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne and Chris Haynes, Durant "is willing to take less than the maximum contract extension he is eligible for this summer as a 10-year veteran if it helps the Warriors keep the core of their team intact."

That's key because, as Haynes and Shelburne noted, the Warriors won't have to renounce their rights to Iguodala and Livingston if Durant signs for less than the 10-year max. 

Should Durant take the selfless route, expect the rest of the NBA to let out a disappointed sigh. 

Prediction: Curry returns on a max, and Durant takes non-Bird max to keep the core together

Andre Iguodala (Unrestricted) 

Iguodala is going to garner interest on the open market. That much is clear. 

Haynes and Shelburne have already reported the Atlanta Hawks, Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns are expected to go after the 2015 Finals MVP, and his stock is likely surging after he erupted for 20 points in Game 5 on Monday. 

However, both the Warriors and Iguodala would be wise to pursue a reunion. 

Although Iguodala may not be a particularly robust scorer at this stage in his career, Golden State doesn't need him to be. It has Durant, Curry and Klay Thompson to do the heavy lifting there.  

Instead, the Warriors need Iguodala to be a secondary ball-handler, supplementary transition distributor and lockdown defender. 

And if his performance during the Finals was any indication, he is still capable of thriving in that niche. 

To that point, Iguodala finished a team-high plus-60 in the plus/minus column over the course of five games against the Cleveland Cavaliers. By comparison, Draymond Green ranked second at plus-40, while Durant was third at plus-33. 

"He's one of the best professionals I've ever been around," Thompson said of Iguodala after Game 5, per CSN Bay Area's Monte Poole. "And two years ago he went to the bench, and it rewarded him; he was Finals MVP. Same thing this year. The guy's an Olympian, a champion, an All-Star and one of the most complete players I ever played with. He just makes everyone around him better."

With the Warriors, the 33-year-old can maximize his remaining years in the NBA. The same can't be said of other suitors, who would undoubtedly ask him to shoulder a heavier workload and play more minutes on what have proved to be creaky knees. 

Prediction: Iguodala takes hometown discount and re-signs with Warriors

Shaun Livingston (Unrestricted)

Livingston feels like the biggest flight risk of the bunch.

Not only did he earn a below-market $5.8 million last season, but his playing time dipped to 17.7 minutes a night from 19.5 the year prior.

Now headed for the open market, it's not hard to see Livingston, who turns 32 in September, commanding a deal that approaches eight figures annually.

That would be a steep price for the Warriors to pay, but they could flirt with the idea if Durant does sign for less than the max. 

"Obviously, we'd all like to stay," Livingston said after Game 5, per CSN Bay Area's Drew Shiller. "It is a business. But we're gonna enjoy this right here. We're gonna enjoy this championship."

It would be in the best interest of both sides to find monetary middle ground based on the way Livingston has performed over the past three seasons, and the hunch here is that they'll do just that with a chance to keep the second unit together. 

Prediction: Livingston re-signs on a two-year deal 

Zaza Pachulia (Unrestricted)

For one year, Pachulia was fine.

But the Warriors should be able to upgrade their starting center this summer as they search for a more nimble 5 to eat up minutes in the middle. 

Predicting who the Warriors will target at this juncture isn't an easy task, but it's fair to wonder if they'll be able to coax Nene into taking the veteran's minimum to chase a ring. 

In 67 games with the Houston Rockets last season, the Brazilian big averaged 9.1 points and 4.2 rebounds while shooting a career-high 61.7 percent from the field. 

Still a bouncy roll man who would capitalize on easy buckets galore alongside Curry, Durant, Green and Thompson, Nene should be high atop the Warriors' wish list. 

Prediction: Warriors let Pachulia walk 

James Michael McAdoo (Qualifying Offer)

James Michael McAdoo has been a fine contributor for the Warriors over the past three years. However, he's never felt like a real piece of the team's long-term puzzle.  

As things stand, McAdoo is scheduled to become a restricted free agent if Golden State extends a qualifying offer worth just north of $1.7 million. But if the team declines to do so, McAdoo will become an unrestricted free agent. 

At this point, the latter seems like the more logical option. 

The Warriors will need all the wiggle room they can get July 1, and giving McAdoo a qualifying offer will keep a $1.7 million cap hold on the books.

The Warriors could always submit the qualifying offer and rescind it if Durant doesn't take the non-Bird max, but with so many moving parts and McAdoo likely pining for a bigger role, it makes sense for the two sides to split.  

Prediction: Warriors decline to extend qualifying offer, and McAdoo becomes an unrestricted free agent

Ian Clark (Unrestricted)

Were it not for Patrick McCaw, Ian Clark would seem like a safer bet to return to the Warriors on a one-year deal like he did last July. 

But with McCaw—whose aggressiveness on a pair of buckets in Game 5 stood out—looking like a future rotational regular at shooting guard behind Thompson, Clark should be expendable. 

That's not necessarily bad news for Clark, though. 

The 26-year-old just pieced together the finest season of his young career by averaging 6.8 points per game on 48.7 percent shooting from the field and 37.4 percent shooting from three-point range, and he could command a solid multiyear contract on the open market from a team in need of reinforcements on the wing. 

If a deal of that nature surfaces, the Warriors assuredly won't be game to match it—especially with McCaw due a paltry $1.3 million next season. 

Prediction: Ian Clark flies the coop to pursue a more lucrative contract 

JaVale McGee (Unrestricted) 

Ezra Shaw/Associated Press

JaVale McGee experienced something of a career renaissance with the Warriors last season. Now the big question is whether he'll parlay that success into a long-term deal elsewhere or sacrifice money to stay in the Bay Area. 

Conventional wisdom suggests McGee will chase the payday and capitalize on his newfound earning power, but it's fair to wonder if he'll regress in new surroundings. 

As The Undefeated's Marc J. Spears told KNBR radio's Larry Krueger and Kevin Frandsen in April: "This is one of those marriages where I think it's better for McGee and his career to figure out how to stay with the Warriors and make it work for the Warriors. I can't say if he goes somewhere else it's going to be the same kind of good union."

Leaving millions on the table won't be easy, but doing so figures to be best for McGee's career in the long run. 

Prediction: McGee returns to the Warriors on a steep discount

David West (Unrestricted) 

David West will turn 37 years old in August, which means retirement is in play. However, the newly minted champion doesn't sound like he's ready to hang up his sneakers just yet. 

"I don't know," West said of retiring, per Spears. "I feel good. That's why everyone keeps asking me. I don't know. I just feel great."

And at this point, money isn't the most important thing to West. He made that clear when he declined a player option worth $12.6 million with the Indiana Pacers to sign with the San Antonio Spurs two years ago. 

Assuming West still feels good once the Warriors have addressed more pressing free-agent situations, a return at the minimum sounds like a good deal for both sides. 

Prediction: West re-signs with the Warriors for the veteran minimum 

Matt Barnes (Unrestricted) 

Simply put, Matt Barnes was a luxury for the Warriors last season.

They nabbed him at the start of March for pennies, and he provided some relief while Durant was recovering from a sprained MCL. 

But once Durant was back, Barnes was largely an afterthought. 

Thus, the Warriors would be better off clearing a roster spot and seeing if they can fill it with a younger, more versatile player. 

One possibility involves buying a draft pick, which Lowe reported they're trying to do. 

But even if the Warriors can't wiggle their way into the draft June 22, they should be patient and look to add some fresher legs to replace the 37-year-old through other avenues. 

Prediction: Barnes signs elsewhere for the veteran minimum 

Contract information courtesy of Basketball Insiders. Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com.