Updated 2017 Win-Loss Projections for Every NBA Team
Now that the NBA has put some distance between itself and the trade deadline, the league-wide pecking order is overdue for an update.
Some teams changed the trajectory of their entire season, for better or worse, amid February's annual chaos. Others tweaked their outlook ever so slightly. A bunch of squads did nothing at all. Mix it all together, and you have a hierarchy that, while mostly steady, plays host to quite a few shake-ups.
Current positioning will play a big role in deciding how this flurry of action impacts the final standings. When dealing with overhauled rosters, attention must be paid to how new players fit, strength of schedule and initial results coming out of the All-Star break.
Potential conference ties will be broken by head-to-head matchups. If both squads are even on that front, we'll turn to division records, should they play in the same one, and conference records in all other situations.
East No. 15: Brooklyn Nets
1 of 30
Current Pace: 13-69
B/R Projection: 12-70
Organic improvement from the kiddies, coupled with consistently gritty efforts, could carry the Brooklyn Nets past these rather pessimistic projections. They might even rack up a few extra victories courtesy of some newly minted Eastern Conference tank jobs.
It's nevertheless tough to feel much better than this about the Nets' stretch run. They are 1-27 over their last 28 games (not a typo), during which time they're dead last in points scored per 100 possessions.
Dealing Bojan Bogdanovic to the Washington Wizards doesn't do the scoring department any favors. Jeremy Lin's recent return from a hamstring injury helps, but he's no savior; Brooklyn, to this point, is more efficient when he's off the floor.
Acquiring K.J. McDaniels and Andrew Nicholson at the trade deadline is nothing if not airtight proof the Nets remain committed to the experimental phase of their rebuild. Taking midseason flyers is an admirable—and necessary—part of any reinvention in its infancy, but these newcomers aren't impactful enough to signal turning tides.
East No. 14: Philadelphia 76ers
2 of 30
Current Pace: 31-51
B/R's Projection: 25-57
It's tanking season once more for the Philadelphia 76ers!
As author of the reviled-turned-revered "Process", Sam Hinkie must be so freaking proud.
Philly announced ahead of its Feb. 27 date with the Golden State Warriors that Joel Embiid would be out indefinitely due to swelling in his left knee. The Rookie of the Year favorite hasn't played since Jan. 28 while recovering from a meniscus tear in that same knee, and an unspecified timetable doesn't bode well for an eventual return with less than 25 games to play.
This news is in addition to general manager Bryan Colangelo announcing, per SI.com's Jake Fischer, that No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons won't be making his debut until next season.
Embiid's injury is by far the bigger obstacle, because he's actually seen the court this year. The Sixers are 5-8 through his latest absence, but the schedule doesn't get easier, and there are only so many wins a team can collect with Robert Covington as its best player.
East No. 13: New York Knicks
3 of 30
Current Pace: 33-49
B/R Projection: 31-51
If you think the New York Knicks are going to amass more than seven victories through the final quarter of the season, bless your little heart. You've successfully dreamed up silver linings that don't exist.
Only the Nets have a lower winning percentage since Christmas Day, and the Knicks' peak was always exaggerated. They were 14-10 at one time. Cool.
Teams that are four games over .500 aren't good.
After failing to move Derrick Rose or making an addition of consequence at the trade deadline, New York couldn't reverse this accidental tank if it tried. And now, it seems, team president Phil Jackson is steering into the skid.
Joakim Noah will miss the rest of the season following arthroscopic knee surgery, according to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski. That opens minutes for Willy Hernangomez and Kyle O'Quinn—which, let's face it, makes the Knicks better. But Kristaps Porzingis is nursing a sprained ankle, Brandon Jennings was released and head coach Kurt Rambis Jeff Hornacek is, per the New York Post's Marc Berman, being forced permitted to renew the team's hopelessly stupid totally logical commitment to the triangle.
Read between the lines, and the Knicks' covert tank is in full swing, even if they don't shut down Carmelo Anthony. There's no need to worry about them winning too much unless they bench or waive Rose.
East No. 12: Orlando Magic
4 of 30
Current Pace: 30-52
B/R Projection: 32-50
Is it possible for the Orlando Magic to be a better team without Serge Ibaka?
“In the short term, we are going to make the movement toward playing small,” head coach Frank Vogel said, per Orlando Magic Daily's Philip Rossman-Reich. “We tried to play a lot of big lineups and it, in my mind, hurt us on both ends. Both the mobility on the defensive end and the three-point shooting element and the speed you need on the offensive need and to counter these offenses that you are seeing."
In other words: Yes.
Giving more minutes to Aaron Gordon—and even Mario Hezonja—at power forward ultimately may not be what's best for the defense. But it'll unlock offensive dynamism Orlando hasn't yet known under Vogel. Gordon is more likely to be a matchup nightmare against rival 4s, and Terrence Ross' 37-plus percent three-point clip replaces one non-shooting big.
Victories like the Magic's 19-point drubbing of the Atlanta Hawks on Feb. 25 won't soon become the standard—tanking fanatics can rest easy. At the same time, the Magic's win column will get a default boon from those more religiously pursuing rock bottom.
East No. 11: Milwaukee Bucks
5 of 30
Current Pace: 37-45
B/R Projection: 36-46
All of us should want to like the Milwaukee Bucks for Giannis Antetokounmpo's sake. And they, admittedly, have the detonative potential to render this forecast silly. They're still a net positive when Antetokounmpo is in the game, and top-10 superstars are the preferred ingredient in midseason surges.
Except, the human alphabet hasn't been enough in recent weeks. The Bucks are 8-16 over their last 24 games, with a net rating that dips when Antetokounmpo is in the lineup.
Crunch time remains a recurring killer. Milwaukee has the league's lowest net rating during games in which no side is ahead or behind by more than five points entering the final five minutes. It's a bad-not-terrible 13-17 in those situations, but it's a more troubling 7-13 when facing two-point differentials during the closing three minutes.
Late-game struggles are the enemy of stretch-run jolts. Learning how to win tightly contested matchups takes time, and with Milwaukee emphasizing development over wins (Thon Maker is playing!), it's irresponsible to expect more from an outfit down its second-best player in Jabari Parker.
East No. 10: Charlotte Hornets
6 of 30
Current Pace: 35-47
B/R Projection: 37-45
From top-five Eastern Conference contender to lottery-bound letdown, the rise and fall of the Charlotte Hornets has been swift and sudden.
Kemba Walker needs help from one of his incumbent running mates. Trading for Miles Plumlee (since injured) and signing Briante Weber adds depth to a shallow pool of athleticism, but Nicolas Batum and Marvin Williams need to do more if a playoff run is in the cards. It'd be nice if Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could shoot better than 36.1 percent on mid-range jumpers, too.
Frank Kaminsky is about the only supporting-cast member answering the call to arms at the moment. As At The Hive's Jack Bedrosian wrote:
"It’s nice to see the Hornets coming out of the gate with some pep in the proverbial step, especially in the form of Frank Kaminsky. Tank has been relatively underwhelming for the franchise this season, but has managed to put together a good string of games as of late, scoring in double figures in six straight, while dropping at least 20 in three of them.
Frank even managed to have a monster game rebounding the ball as well the other night, finishing with thirteen boards, an aspect of his game he’s received criticism for in the past — being 7-foot and all.
"
Charlotte is lucky to have a top-seven defense on which it can fall back. But even that's been on the fritz during this New Year's nosedive. It's hard to get behind more than 37 wins given a relative lack of court balance and reliable depth.
East No. 9: Indiana Pacers
7 of 30
Current Pace: 42-40
B/R Projection: 40-42
Epitomizing mediocrity for an entire season is usually good enough for 42 wins and a playoff bid in the Eastern Conference. The Indiana Pacers are an exception to the rule, because their end-of-the-year slate isn't conducive to staying in the middle.
No Eastern Conference squad other than the Cleveland Cavaliers has a tougher schedule going forward, per PlayoffStatus.com. And while the Pacers are borderline juggernauts at home, they're fringe pushovers away from Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
On a somewhat related note* that definitely has nothing** to do with this projection and isn't anything the Pacers should worry*** about: Twelve of their final 22 tilts come outside Indiana, where they are 10-19 with a bottom-10 net rating. Seven of those are against above-.500 factions, and the Pacers are 3-7 when playing winning teams in hostile territory.
Meanwhile, in the aftermath of a dormant trade deadline, Indiana is left with "Paul George wants to play for the Los Angeles Lakers" scenarios hanging over its head.
For all kinds of reasons—an underwhelming bench included—this isn't a team positioned to finish the season on a high note.
(*totally related; **everything; ***worry your butts off)
East No. 8: Miami Heat
8 of 30
Current Pace: 37-45
B/R Projection: 41-41
Even as the Miami Heat ride a blisteringly hot streak, it's taboo to predict a postseason berth. The notion is too sexy. Can we really view one torrid wave as a harbinger of sustainability?
When that gamut spans 16 victories in 19 games, you bet we can.
Just look at how the Heat stack up with the rest of the NBA during their run of terror:
| 100.6 | 29 | 104.9 | 11 | -4.3 | 24 | |
| 109.8 | 7 | 102.2 | 4 | 7.6 | 4 |
Nineteen games is almost 25 percent of the entire season. And seven of their victories have come versus above-.500 contingents, so it's not like they're facing scrubs.
Maybe the offense cools off, but the Heat's defense has flashed extensive depth for most of the year. And we can't expect every single one of Goran Dragic, James Johnson, Tyler Johnson, Rodney McGruder and Dion Waiters to fall off a cliff at the same time.
Book Erik Spoelstra for Coach of the Year consideration, because his Heatles are heading to the playoffs.
No. 7 East: Chicago Bulls
9 of 30
Current Pace: 42-40
B/R Projection: 41-41
Things are not going swimmingly for the Chicago Bulls. They're barely hovering above .500, and their playoff hopes took a hit when they subbed out Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott for Cameron Payne and Joffrey Lauvergne. (Honest question: Why does Chicago hate three-point shooting?)
Payne could always infuse some electricity into an unsightly, albeit overachieving, offense. But this assumes head coach Fred Hoiberg gives him enough spin. The Bulls are bogged down by an excess of guards, most of whom cannot shoot, and Payne saw just 12 minutes in his debut.
"I didn’t put Cam back there in the second half because he still has a lot to learn,” Hoiberg said of Payne's playing time in Chicago's Feb. 25 win over Cleveland, per the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson. “His minutes will increase as we move along. I thought he played well.”
Jimmy Butler is the Bulls' saving grace. He ranks as the league's 10th-most valuable player this season, according to NBA Math, and Chicago posts what would be the East's third-best net rating (plus-3.7) when he's in the lineup.
Bet on him dragging an uneven and unpolished roster to a low-seeded postseason cameo.
No. 6 East: Detroit Pistons
10 of 30
Current Pace: 39-43
B/R Projection: 42-40
YOU GUYS: The Detroit Pistons may have turned the corner. It's a tiny half-shift that won't ferry them to 45-win territory, but it's nonetheless a meaningful swing.
Detroit is 7-4 since Feb. 1, with a defense that trails only the San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz in points allowed per 100 possessions. The offense is still a clunk-fest, and the new-and-unimproved starting five continues to get pummeled, but coach-president Stan Van Gundy is finding other lineup combinations that work.
Units that feature four bench contributors and one starting wing—Markieff Morris or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope—have stood out more than other options. Stanley Johnson looks comfortable shouldering more responsibility, and Van Gundy has almost evenly divvied up the point guard minutes between Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith.
That both Andre Drummond and Jackson are journeying dangerously close to "overrated" territory is a concern. But the Pistons appear content to deal with it over the offseason.
In the meantime, the Boston Celtics are the lone other team with an easier schedule to play through, per PlayoffStatus.com. Detroit should be able to eke out a winning record so long as Van Gundy prioritizes playing those who are effective over those who hold loftier status.
No. 5 East: Atlanta Hawks
11 of 30
Current Pace: 46-36
B/R Projection: 44-38
Consistency is not in the Hawks' vocabulary. Their 2016-17 momentum index is rife with abrupt transitions, buildups and drop-offs. Rinse, lather, repeat with uncomfortably high frequency.
The Hawks' latest role reversal began just before the All-Star break. They fell to the Sacramento Kings on Feb. 10, played through a near-miss against the Portland Trail Blazers on Feb. 13 and then lost to the Chris Paul-less Los Angeles Clippers on Feb. 15. They followed that stretch up by losing their first two games out of the sabbatical by at least 18 points.
Atlanta's defense is unrelenting on its worst nights, but the offense ranks 26th in efficiency and is scoring even fewer points per 100 possessions since the start of February. Though Ersan Ilyasova should help the frontcourt's lackluster spacing, he can't offset the offensive anemia that plagues many of the team's most-used lineups.
Fortunately for the Hawks, their hold on the No. 5 seed exceeds two games, and there isn't a legitimate threat behind them.
Plus, knowing the trajectory their season has taken, they're overdue for a winning streak that suggests they're better than they actually are.
No. 4 East: Toronto Raptors
12 of 30
Current Pace: 49-33
B/R Projection: 46-36
The Toronto Raptors announced Monday that Kyle Lowry needed surgery on his right wrist and would miss extensive time with the intention of being ready for the playoffs. He is ultimately expected to sit between four and five weeks, leaving open the possibility of a regular-season return, according to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski.
And just like that, the Raptors' chances of a second straight 50-win season are kaput. As ESPN.com's Kevin Pelton wrote:
"Lowry's sizable impact on the team's bottom line explains why ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) rates his impact (plus-6.4 points per 100 possessions) fourth in the NBA this season. (He finished seventh in RPM in 2015-16.)
So it's no surprise that Toronto's projected record using the multiyear, predictive version of RPM takes a tumble without Lowry. RPM suggests the Raptors can expect to be about league average at both ends of the court during his absence, producing a team right around .500.
"
Toronto can find solace in the acquisitions of Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker. They add general depth and defensive versatility, and head coach Dwane Casey should be able to deploy an above-average offense with DeMar DeRozan as the fulcrum.
Still, Lowry profiles as one of the seven most valuable players in the Association, according to NBA Math, and the Raptors were getting manhandled by opponents prior to the trade deadline whenever he took a seat. His absence will bilk them of a top-three playoff seed and set up a meeting with the Cavaliers before the Eastern Conference Finals.
No. 3 East: Washington Wizards
13 of 30
Current Pace: 49-33
B/R Projection: 49-33
Maybe the Washington Wizards needed to do more at the trade deadline than use a first-round pick to offload Andrew Nicholson's contract and land Bojan Bogdanovic.
Washington needn't panic about three straight losses to Philadelphia, Golden State and Utah coming out of the break. The schedule gets easier, and Kyle Lowry's injury effectively removes Toronto from the third-place discussion.
Catching Boston isn't in the realm of possibility, but the Wizards can delay a potential playoff sparring with the Cavaliers until the Eastern Conference Finals by just running in place.
Procrastination is huge when all roads to the NBA Finals lead through LeBron James. But the Wizards have more pressing matters to tackle before the postseason: Their Eastern Conference-best net rating since Christmas means a little less when paired with a rotation that stretches four per-possession positives deep.
No team has turned to its reserves less during Washington's renaissance, a harrowing development knowing Tom Thibodeau is NBA-employed. Bogdanovic fleshes out the depth chart a bit, but he doesn't make the Wizards any more of a threat to the Cavaliers. Their success remains firmly fixed to the starters thriving amid copious usage—a strategy that could give way to late-season fatigue.
No. 2 East: Boston Celtics
14 of 30
Current Pace: 52-30
B/R Projection: 53-29
Anyone still mad about the Celtics standing pat at the trade deadline needs to chillax. They didn't go all in on a star who, after costing both present and future assets, wouldn't make them favorites in a seven-game set against the Cavaliers.
They made the right call.
It would be different if the Celtics as currently constituted were trash. But they have the Eastern Conference's second-best record, along with the easiest remaining schedule, per PlayoffStatus.com. Even their defense has started coming together; they join Golden State and Washington as the only teams with top-eight ratings on both ends of the floor over their last 15 games.
And this is with Boston spending most of the season at less than full strength. None of its lineups have appeared in more than 22 games, while the Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers and Jazz are the only squads that have more value wrapped up in injuries, according to Man Games Lost NBA.
Avery Bradley's return from Achilles soreness is the Celtics' midseason splash. So if we're going to talk about squandered opportunity on the trade market, we should also discuss how the untouched nucleus has yet to reach its ceiling.
No. 1 East: Cleveland Cavaliers
15 of 30
Current Pace: 58-24
B/R Projection: 57-25
A case of strep throat prevented LeBron James from partaking in Cleveland's Feb. 25 loss to Chicago, reminding the Cavaliers yet again where they would be without him: the bottom of the NBA's barrel.
Granted, another a crash course in "The Importance of Employing LeBron James" wasn't necessary. The Cavaliers know who they have, and the product without him looks exponentially worse when Kevin Love (knee) and J.R. Smith (thumb) are coping with injuries of their own.
But losses like the one to Chicago do reinforce the delicateness of Cleveland's situation. James ranks second in minutes per game, and there isn't much of a bench behind him. The Cavaliers should not try getting away with both—especially when one is a direct result of the other.
Thankfully, the post-trade-deadline buyout market exists.
Cleveland is already the favorite to sign Deron Williams, per ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst, and Andrew Bogut is expected to join him, according to ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon and Marc Stein. Williams should help alleviate the playmaking burden placed upon James, while Bogut is necessary frontcourt depth following Chris Andersen's injury and subsequent exit. (Any psychological advantage he helps the team gain in a theoretical NBA Finals battle with Golden State is a bonus.)
These additions don't qualify as a top-to-bottom renovation, and they're not supposed to. The Cavaliers might sleepwalk through a game or seven down the stretch, but they're better equipped to help James earn his seventh consecutive NBA Finals appearance.
No. 15 West: Los Angeles Lakers
16 of 30
Current Pace: 26-56
B/R Projection: 23-59
Operation "Keep this year's first-round pick while screwing over the Magic" is officially underway in Los Angeles.
Truthfully, the Lakers didn't need to ship out Lou Williams for Corey Brewer and a first-rounder to keep the tank train on its track. They were comfortably in play for a bottom-two record before the trade deadline. And Williams, while an offensive demigod, wouldn't have padded the win column with many more victories.
When the stakes are this high, though, it's better to channel your inner Sam Hinkie than be pickless: Should the Lakers' first-round selection fall outside the top three, it'll head to the Sixers. And if that happens, they'll then have to send their 2019 first-rounder to the Magic.
If the Lakers grab a top-three choice this year, their 2018 pick will be Philly's free and clear. Their commitment to Orlando, however, divests into a pair of second-rounders.
In the event Los Angeles' kiddies start binging on wins, head coach Luke Walton must give Timofey Mozgov all the minutes. Because, frankly, there has never been a more important tank in NBA history—not even the Spurs' "Flunking for Tim Duncan" campaign back in 1996-97.
No. 14 West: Phoenix Suns
17 of 30
Current Pace: 25-57
B/R Projection: 24-58
The Phoenix Suns aren't tanking per se; they're just giving more minutes to younger players whom they should have been using all along. There's a difference. Apparently.
Earl Watson, Phoenix's head honcho, is the wild card in this scenario. He deserves credit for playing Dragan Bender a little more before his ankle injury, but he also goes through protracted periods in which he's very obviously coaching to win. The Suns dumped some of his best ammunition by sending P.J. Tucker to the Raptors, but Watson can still implement heavy doses of Tyson Chandler, Leandro Barbosa and Jared Dudley.
To hear general manager Ryan McDonough tell it, however, this isn't in the cards.
“We really like this draft—it’s one of the better ones I’ve seen over the course of the last decade-plus, so we really value our pick this year,” he said, per Arizona Sports 98.7 FM's Adam Green. "I realize that requires patience and a lot of people don’t want that or don’t want to have that or wait for the season to play out.”
Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker and T.J. Warren will invariably add some wins to the bottom line. But the Suns are willingly hamstringing a bottom-five defense by benching Chandler after trading Tucker. They don't exist to win games right now.
Nor should they.
No. 13 West: Sacramento Kings
18 of 30
Current Pace: 34-48
B/R Projection: 29-53
Sacramento had us worried after taking down Denver in its first game without DeMarcus Cousins. But order was shortly restored during a Feb. 25 loss to Charlotte.
Make no bones about it, the Kings are tanking. This doesn't justify accepting Buddy "Not The Next Stephen Curry" Hield and filler in exchange for Cousins; it's just a fact.
Darren Collison and Garrett Temple cannot be a team's best (active) players if said team isn't tanking. That's the rule. The zillion-dollar question is whether the Kings left themselves enough time to plummet down the Western Conference's ladder.
Keeping the top-10 protected pick owed to Chicago is no longer an issue. The Kings are tied for the 11th-worst record in the league and will only slip further. But simply not losing a first-rounder can't be peddled as a success story—not when the New Orleans Pelicans have top-three protection on the pick they're sending back for Cousins.
Matching the Lakers' and Suns' tanks is probably impossible. Ditto for the Nets' organic belly flop. The Sixers remain ubiquitous on the free-fall front, too.
Tumbling into the bottom five is a challenging, but realistic, possibility. Three games separate the Kings from the 27th-place Magic in the loss column—a manageable deficit. They need to out-tank the six or seven teams sitting between them and that spot, then give themselves an outside shot at landing the top-three selection they didn't get in the Cousins trade.
No. 12 West: Minnesota Timberwolves
19 of 30
Current Pace: 33-49
B/R Projection: 34-48
The Minnesota Timberwolves' postseason hopes are technically alive. They're just not well.
Three games separate them from the Nuggets in the loss column. That's a steep gap to shoot with 22 contests left on the docket. It's even steeper when the Timberwolves forfeit every imaginable tiebreaker and when they have the hardest upcoming schedule of any projected lottery team, per PlayoffStatus.com. If they continue their downward defensive spiral, forget it.
After a noticeable uptick in their stopping power through January, the Timberwolves are allowing 111 points per 100 possessions in February—fourth-worst mark in the league. Head coach Tom Thibodeau, naturally, wasted little time dismantling their defensive diligence ahead of the All-Star break, per the Pioneer Press' Jace Frederick:
"You’ve got to do it every night, you’ve got to do it every day. It’s got to become a habit. It’s got to be consistent. Right now we’re down a guy, so you can never underestimate how hard you have to play on every possession. If there’s a loose ball, you’ve got to be the first to the floor. If there’s an opportunity to take a charge, you’ve got to take a charge.
You’ve got to fill in – sink and fill – get to a body, hit, you’ve got to fight. It’s not easy to win in this league. And if we’re not going to do the little things, it’s going to be impossible to win. You’re short-handed, you’ve got to play with great intensity. You won’t win. If you do, you can beat anybody. It’s that simple. But you can’t take a possession off, you can’t take a play off, you can’t take a day off. You’ve got to go.
"
We would be remiss to count out any team in the West's crowded-yet-crummy race for eighth place. But the Timberwolves' dependence on developing youth consigns them to roller-coaster duty—doubly so with Zach LaVine done for the season.
No. 11 West: New Orleans Pelicans
20 of 30
Current Pace: 31-51
B/R Projection: 35-47
So much for the Pelicans' fairytale ending to 2016-17: New Orleans is winless through the first three games of the DeMarcus Cousins era. Neither the offense nor defense is rounding into form, and the Anthony Davis-Cousins dyad is getting destroyed when it's on the floor.
You'll have to forgive the Pelicans for not letting buyer's remorse consume them just yet. The price they paid for Cousins was that good, and no one close to the situation ever thought this was going to be an easy transition, per The Vertical's Michael Lee:
"Cousins wasn’t under any delusion that he was going to come to a team that struggled to win with Anthony Davis and immediately solve all of its problems. The Pelicans used what little assets they had to get Cousins, meaning there is little remaining to surround the most intriguing big-man pairing in nearly two decades.
“We can’t go in thinking we’re just an amazing team. We have to go in and play hard,” Cousins said after he and Davis combined for 56 points, 23 rebounds and six blocked shots in their debut, “because right now, we’re still a bad team.”
"
Three of the Pelicans' final 10 games come against the eighth-place Nuggets, but it's beyond unlikely they sweep that mini-series. And even if they did, it wouldn't, as of now, be enough for them to take ownership of the No. 8 slot.
No. 10 West: Portland Trail Blazers
21 of 30
Current Pace: 34-48
B/R Projection: 36-46
Life after Evan Turner's broken right hand isn't being kind to the Blazers. They are 1-4 in the five games since and once again struggling to find the right combination within their starting lineup.
Subbing in Jusuf Nurkic for Turner doesn't have the look and feel of a long-term solution. That version of the starting five is a minus-12 through 24 minutes and failing to gain any sort of defensive traction.
Portland has a bunch of other options it can throw out but doesn't have the personnel to accentuate defense without sacrificing space. And its best offensive assemblies are sieves. That problem won't go away, even when Turner returns, with Mason Plumlee now jumping center in Denver.
Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum will win a lot of games on their own, but they're also part of the issue. It's difficult to frame a contender around two stars who are such demonstrative minuses on the defensive end (even when they work their tails off).
The Blazers' postseason chances are buoyed by having the Western Conference's easiest schedule from here on, per PlayoffStatus.com, but that's not enough of a redeeming quality when they've spent much of this year miles from .500.
No. 9 West: Dallas Mavericks
22 of 30
Current Pace: 33-49
B/R Projection: 37-45
If anyone is going to make the Nuggets sweat, it's the Dallas Mavericks.
Landing Nerlens Noel isn't even the sole reason why. The Mavericks showed signs of life leading into the All-Star break, winning 11 of 18 games and posting top-10 offensive and defensive ratings.
Dwight Powell and Dorian Finney-Smith have been defensive revelations, while Seth Curry, Wesley Matthews, Dirk Nowitzki and Yogi Ferrell are shooting the lights out from beyond the arc. Harrison Barnes sometimes forgets how to make threes, but he continues to pace the Mavericks in scoring without getting torched on the defensive end as he shimmies between assignments. And head coach Rick Carlisle has been meticulous in finding the right combinations to survive Nowitzki's prolonged stints at center.
Add Noel to this lively bunch, and wow. He fortifies a seesawing defense, gives Carlisle a burgeoning pick-and-roll diver to incorporate and lets Nowitzki assume the easier of the two frontcourt assignments even if it means he's the one chasing around mobile 4s.
Barring a full-scale implosion from the Nuggets, though, the Mavericks' trek toward respectability will fall short of a playoff appearance.
No. 8 West: Denver Nuggets
23 of 30
Current Pace: 36-46
B/R Projection: 38-44
Somebody sound the "Nikola Jokic is human " alarm, because he has indeed looked human this side of All-Star Weekend.
Nick Kosmider unpacked some of his offensive struggles for the Denver Post:
"Jokic has averaged only 5.3 points per game in the Nuggets’ three games since the all-star break, a dramatic dip from the 22.3 points-per-game average he produced from the start of the new year through the break. His shot attempts have dropped by nearly half and his turnover rate has climbed.
Though the slump is a short one, it’s one that poses concern for a team that has relied so heavily on Jokic’s production as it chases the No. 8 and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.
"
It says everything about Jokic that the Nuggets are still a plus-7.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the court during his slump. His keen eye turns every one of his teammates into an off-ball weapon, and the mere threat of his scoring forces the defense to plan around him even when he's not getting buckets.
Jokic's offensive funk is just that. His shooting percentages will spike in time, and Denver has the surrounding scorers on the wings to counteract a permanent dip in his shot attempts.
Overcoming a league-worst defense remains the foremost concern. And since that has yet to knock the Nuggets off the No. 8 seed, it's unwise to drop them below those chasing their wake.
No. 7 West: Memphis Grizzlies
24 of 30
Current Pace: 48-34
B/R Projection: 47-35
Staying true to their current pace is so Memphis Grizzlies.
Almost everything about their season has been wholly predictable: Top-five defense. Bottom-10(ish) offense. One vintage Chandler Parsons away from being a real threat in the West. And so on.
Career-best exploits from Mike Conley and Marc Gasol were less predictable, as was the emergence of James Ennis III. But despite a more modernized offensive approach, the Grizzlies don't have the requisite firepower to hang with the West's elite.
Too many of their games also come down to the wire. They've been in situations where no team is ahead or behind by more than three points entering the final two minutes 25 times. Their 17-8 record in these instances feels unsustainable, and they don't have as favorable a schedule as the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Treading water is a reasonable expectation. Avoiding a first-round dance with the Spurs is less so.
No. 6 West: Oklahoma City Thunder
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Current Pace: 47-35
B/R Projection: 48-34
Turning Joffrey Lauvergne and Cameron Payne into Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott doesn't transform the Thunder into the Warriors' leading rival, but it will make some of their actual archenemies uncomfortable.
Oklahoma City ranks dead-last in wide-open three-point percentage, so it got McDermott, who's shooting 42.6 percent on uncontested triples. The second-string forwards aren't playing up to snuff on either offense or defense, so general manager Sam Presti got a hold of Gibson, one of the hardest-working frontcourt performers in the league.
Oh, and by the way, Oklahoma City still has Russell Westbrook, who churns out triple-doubles in his sleep.
"The Thunder are now in a position where winning a first-round matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, Utah Jazz or Houston Rockets is possible," Bleacher Report's Michael Pina wrote in a roundtable for NBA Math. "They possess arguably the best player in any of those matchups, and adding Gibson to a frontline that already has Enes Kanter and Steven Adams will turn the paint into a slaughterhouse for opposing bigs."
Houston in particular shouldn't take this lightly. The Thunder close the season on one of the West's easiest schedules, per PlayoffStatus.com, which sets them up nicely to snare the No. 6 seed and a first-round tango with the Rockets.
No. 5 West: Los Angeles Clippers
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Current Pace: 50-32
B/R Projection: 50-32
At long last, the Clippers are finally whole. And not a moment too soon.
Chris Paul is back after missing 14 games with a torn ligament in his left thumb. He's still trying to find his shot (31.3 percent since returning), but he's proved to be a defensive menace and wasted little time in resuming his dime-dropping tendencies.
Most importantly, his return means the reunion of Los Angeles' most dangerous lineup: Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, Luc Mbah a Moute, J.J. Redick and Paul are obliterating opponents by 16.2 points per 100 possessions when they share the court. And they're only going to get better.
Injuries to Griffin and Paul have limited the Fab Five to 25 appearances, through which the Clippers are 17-8. Paul will increase their threat level as he works off the rust, and Griffin has already found an entirely different gear, averaging 24.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 1.2 steals on 50.7 percent shooting in 13 appearances since his own return from injury.
That's enough juice for the (still-shallow) Clippers to put the fourth-place Jazz on notice. But teams at the top aren't in the business of relinquishing ground this late in the season. The Clippers will have to settle for knowing Paul's return and Griffin's detonation are enough for them to stave off the lurking Grizzlies and Thunder.
No. 4 West: Utah Jazz
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Current Pace: 51-31
B/R Projection: 52-30
Here's a fun exercise: Google "NBA Injury report." Click on ESPN.com's list of hobbled players. Hit control/command "F," search for "Jazz," and you won't find anything. Then, just to be sure you haven't stumbled upon some mean joke, go back to your original search and check out CBS Sports' injury index. Scroll down to the Jazz, and you'll find three glorious, mesmerizing, long-overdue words: "No injuries reported."
This is the first time all year Utah is enjoying a full roster for more than a fleeting moment. And just so we're clear, this is terrifying.
Not a single one of the Jazz's lineups has made more than 19 appearances this season. Last summer's projected starting five of Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert, Gordon Hayward, George Hill and Rodney Hood has 11 games to its resume. No team, according to Man Games Lost NBA, has been more impacted by absences.
Utah is on track to clear 50 victories anyway. The defense is third in points allowed per 100 possessions, while the league's slowest offense hovers around the top 10 in efficiency. Think of what this group will be able to accomplish with all hands on deck and a rotation that doesn't vary by night.
It's enough to make the third-place Rockets wonder whether their four-game lead is big enough (it is).
No. 3 West: Houston Rockets
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Current Pace: 56-26
B/R Projection: 58-24
Credit the Rockets for owning their identity. They reinvested in their primary strengths—scoring, with more scoring—by trading for Lou Williams and aren't afraid to admit their hope is to win every game one jillion-and-one to one jillion.
"We want to win the title, and obviously that’s probably going through the Warriors at some point," general manager Daryl Morey explained to Frank Isola and Brian Scalabrine on SiriusXM NBA Radio (h/t CBS Sports' James Herbert). "And we absolutely figured the only way we’re gonna beat 'em is with a barrage of three-pointers, and it’s probably going to be a 124-120 affair if we’re going to get past them."
Trying to beat the Warriors at their own game isn't a foolproof plan. Then again, the alternative of controlling the pace and burning seconds off the shot clock in the half court isn't a great approach, either.
Golden State is built to play and beat any style. Teams can let this scare them off, electing to rebuild around the Warriors' window, or they can push back, in which case they must pick a mode of attack.
Houston staked its flag in chucking threes by upgrading the Association's second-best offense. That's not enough to upset Golden State in a seven-game series, but when co-opted with a league-average defense, it's good for sniffing 60 regular-season wins and a top-three playoff bid.
No. 2 West: San Antonio Spurs
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Current Pace: 64-18
B/R Projection: 63-19
We can express some concern that the Spurs offense is 16th in points scored per 100 possessions since the start of February. And we can certainly use their three-way tie for the toughest remaining schedule, per PlayoffStatus.com, to drive down their projection.
Why bother, though?
The Spurs are 8-2 with their guttering offense. Sixteen of their final 24 games come at home. They have the second-best road record to lean on when they're not in San Antonio. And they record a positive net rating no matter which one of their players is off the floor.
Going against a pace that's been set by the Spurs themselves is never a good idea. All that's preventing them from a second-straight 65-win crusade are the games head coach Gregg Popovich will inevitably throw when he benches everyone.
No. 1 West: Golden State Warriors
30 of 30
Current Pace: 69-13
B/R Projection: 70-12
What's next for the Warriors after becoming the fastest team in NBA history to clinch a playoff berth?
Winning their 70th game. Duh.
Beating last year's 72-win mark is officially out of the question, so head coach Steve Kerr might start doling out rest days faster than you can say "Gregg Popovich would be proud." But he's resisted the urge for platoon absences thus far, and there's only so much damage he can do with rotating downtime.
Stephen Curry isn't playing? If only the Warriors had Kevin Durant. He's out, too? Darn, wouldn't it be cool if Golden State had another two All-NBA players in Draymond Green and Klay Thompson? Oh, wait, they do.
Forecasting another four losses for the Warriors is almost disrespectful. Not only do they pair the league's top offense with the second-best defense, but a 19-4 stretch to close the season entails them winning at a lower clip than they have all year.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com or NBA.com and are accurate leading into games on Feb. 28.
