2016-17 NBA Season Predictions for Each San Antonio Spurs Player
The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers are the favorites for 2016-17's NBA title, but the San Antonio Spurs are the top challengers to either's championship throne.
Despite the loss of franchise cornerstone Tim Duncan, San Antonio has a roster built to contend with the Association's best. Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge lead a new-look team that is coming off its best regular season in franchise history.
However, Golden State's 73-win campaign overshadowed that 67-win Spurs squad, while most headlines from the offseason focused on Cleveland's championship and Kevin Durant's free agency.
San Antonio won't claim "disrespect," but once again, Gregg Popovich's team may be flying a little too far under the national radar.
Predictions for reserves are ordered by size of projected role, with starters following a similar pattern. Remember that not everyone will play 82 games, so the statistics are not meant to reflect a collective average.
End of Bench
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Dejounte Murray, Point Guard
Perhaps the newest late-round steal for the organization, Dejounte Murray is a promising point guard out of Washington. However, barring injuries higher up, the 20-year-old will likely spend a considerable portion of the season with the NBA D-League's Austin Spurs. Murray's biggest contributions may come when Tony Parker gets a night off.
Predicted per-game stats: 6.8 minutes, 2.8 points, 1.2 assists, 0.9 rebounds
Bryn Forbes, Shooting Guard
Although Bryn Forbes won't be an every-night player, the Michigan State product earned a spot on the roster because of his shooting range. Forbes' best chance to play is early in the season while Danny Green is sidelined, but he's behind both Manu Ginobili and Jonathan Simmons on the depth chart. It's worth finding out if the marksman can develop into a quality reserve.
Predicted per-game stats: 6.3 minutes, 2.9 points, 0.8 rebounds, 0.6 assists
Nicolas Laprovittola, Point Guard
San Antonio had 14 guaranteed contracts, but Forbes and Nicolas Laprovittola outplayed 2013 first-round pick Livio Jean-Charles. Now, the question is how much the Argentinian star will actually play. As the No. 3 point guard, Laprovittola should fill Ray McCallum's 2015-16 role. In games Parker sat, McCallum averaged 22.3 minutes. Otherwise, he managed fewer than six.
Predicted per-game stats: 7.6 minutes, 2.5 points, 1.8 assists, 1.1 rebounds
Davis Bertans, Power Forward
A pair of serious knee injuries slowed Davis Bertans' trek toward the NBA, but he's an exciting talent. The likely hope is that Bertans provides a similar impact to that of Matt Bonner, a tall shooter who spaced the floor and offered spirited defense. While Bertans has a higher career ceiling, expect the 23-year-old to be eased into the elevated level of competition before earning a larger role late in the season.
Predicted per-game stats: 9.7 minutes, 4.2 points, 2.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists
Rotational Reserves
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Jonathon Simmons, Shooting Guard
If Jonathon Simmons stays anywhere close to the effectiveness of his 2016-17 debut, we'll need to reassess expectations. But Simmons' 20-point explosion against the Warriors offered a perfect glimpse into his offensive ability.
Last year, the Spurs' second unit lacked a ball-handling creator other than Ginobili. As a rookie, Simmons wasn't an every-night player, but that's going to change this season. He can run the offense or be a spot-up shooter, so he's capable of playing both guard spots. That versatility means Simmons will be in the lineup, and energetic defense should keep him there.
Predicted per-game stats: 15.8 minutes, 5.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists
Dewayne Dedmon, Center
Duncan's retirement and Pau Gasol's signing owned Spurs-related headlines, but Dewayne Dedmon was a quietly important addition: Without the 27-year-old, the frontcourt would lack a defensive-minded presence. In each of his three seasons, per 36 minutes, Dedmon has never posted fewer than 11 rebounds and two blocks.
San Antonio doesn't need much scoring from him, but it'll rely on Dedmon as a rim-protector to complement David Lee.
Predicted per-game stats: 15.3 minutes, 4.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.2 blocks
David Lee, Power Forward
The veteran has an important void to fill. Boris Diaw was never spectacular, but he did a little bit of everything for the offense.
Lee is a willing rebounder and smart passer. Though he's not quite a stretch 4, his range extends to about 15 feet. Spacing will never be an issue with him and Dedmon in the second unit.
Predicted per-game stats: 15.4 minutes, 6.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists
Kyle Anderson, Small Forward
Lee has taken over Diaw's position, but Kyle Anderson is better suited to provide the all-around skill set. While Anderson will top last season's 16 minutes per game, his position distribution should remain similar. Basketball-Reference estimated Anderson spent 20 percent of his minutes at guard, and he started the opener in place of the injured Green.
Anderson—who is nicknamed Slo-Mo— isn't going to "wow" anyone, yet he's a heady and versatile player on both ends.
Predicted per-game stats: 17.3 minutes, 5.2 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.9 steals
Manu Ginobili, Shooting Guard
The roster's eldest statesman, 39-year-old Manu Ginobili remains a key component of San Antonio's bench.
Patty Mills is the point guard, but Ginobili actually runs the second unit. Though he's not going to carry the offense, Ginobili is also the better ball-handling option. The Argentine's 23.6 usage percentage was the third-highest mark on the 2015-16 team.
However, Ginobili recorded the lowest marks of his career (since his rookie season), and those numbers will likely continue to drop. But the Spurs' primary objective should be keeping him healthy and rested for the playoff run.
Predicted per-game stats: 18.2 minutes, 8.4 points, 2.8 assists, 2.3 rebounds, 0.9 steals
Patty Mills, Point Guard
Every team needs a dangerous three-point shooter off the bench—when Mills gets on a roll, he doesn't stop. However, the Australian's slumps are often just as difficult to bust.
Nevertheless, Mills is the spark plug to San Antonio's reserve unit. And while Green is unavailable, this career 39 percent shooter from long distance is the top three-point option behind Leonard.
Predicted per-game stats: 20.8 minutes, 8.9 points, 2.8 assists, 1.6 rebounds, 0.6 steals
Starting SG: Danny Green
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San Antonio will be without Green (hamstring) for the opening three weeks of the season, which is pretty similar to last year if you look at his shooting numbers through 13 games.
Jokes aside, the three-and-D specialist had a rough start to a disappointing 2015 campaign, connecting on just 29.5 percent of his three-point attempts. He ultimately lifted the mark to 33.2 percent, but it was still a career-low clip while with the Spurs.
Unlike Parker, Green can atone for shooting struggles with excellent defense. In 2015-16, opponents shot below the league average at an even 44 percent when defended by him, per NBA.com.
"He guarded big-time for us last year," Aldridge said, according to Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News.
Green's offensive contributions are essential if San Antonio is to compete for a championship, but defense will keep him afloat in the meantime.
Predicted per-game stats: 24.2 minutes, 8.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 0.7 blocks
Starting PG: Tony Parker
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Gone are the days that San Antonio needs Tony Parker to score 20 points per night and propel the offensive attack. That burden has moved to Leonard and Aldridge, but the Spurs still require offensive impact from the veteran.
If Parker isn't contributing on the scoring end, his value drops because of his pedestrian defense.
But this isn't a eulogy on the 34-year-old's career.
Parker is a crafty scorer near the rim and has willingly settled into a role as the third (or even fourth) offensive option. That selflessness is valuable to an organization breaking in a superstar.
Occasionally, Parker will explode for 25 or maybe even 30 points. But his biggest responsibility is being a reliable distributor and calming presence in the starting backcourt.
Predicted per-game stats: 25.8 minutes, 10.8 points, 5.4 assists, 2.1 rebounds, 1.0 steals
Starting C: Pau Gasol
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Ever since he was a rookie, Gasol has played at least 31 minutes per game. The accumulated minutes will catch up to the 36-year-old, but Popovich isn't going to use Gasol like Tom Thibodeau did.
Consequently, there's an excellent chance several career-low marks are on the horizon, but Gasol seems prepared for the drop.
"It's not about me, it's not about my game or my points or my stats," according to Nick Moyle of the Express-News. "It's about winning and what the team needs me to do."
Along with respectable defense and rebounding, Gasol's superb vision and willingness to pass makes him an excellent facilitator in the frontcourt. "Because he's so intelligent and a great passing big, I think he will fit right in perfectly," Green said, per Mike Monroe of Bleacher Report.
Gasol often won't have flashy stats, but he'll be effective in his role. And that's what the Spurs need most.
Predicted per-game stats: 27.5 minutes, 11.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.3 blocks
Starting PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
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Jackie MacMullan of ESPN recently revealed on CSN New England that the Spurs may consider trading Aldridge. ESPN's Zach Lowe also suggested Aldridge could be a name that comes up in trade rumors as the season wears on.
While the team denied discussions, per McDonald, both sides can be true.
If Aldridge is unhappy about his role as the No. 2 player, that feeling could reach a point where he requests a change. If the front office concludes Aldridge isn't fitting as the second option to Leonard, San Antonio won't have a shortage of trade partners.
But the reports aren't suggesting a move is imminent or even likely. As long as Aldridge is with the team, he'll be a top scorer.
Yes, his defensive merit will be tested without Duncan protecting the rim. However, Aldridge can now assert himself as a dominant post option. Instead of spacing the floor while Duncan is down low, Aldridge can plant on the blocks while Gasol draws a defender to 18 feet and showcases his passing ability in the high post.
Call it a suspicion, but the Aldridge experiment might actually become more dangerous in 2016-17.
Predicted per-game stats: 31.4 minutes, 19.7 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 blocks
Starting SF: Kawhi Leonard
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Last year, Stephen Curry deservedly became the first unanimous MVP in NBA history. But it's sometimes overlooked that Leonard finished second, beating out LeBron James, Russell Westbrook and other elite talents.
The San Diego State product is no longer a budding superstar; he's here.
Leonard recorded several personal bests in 2015-16, including points (21.2), assists (2.6), blocks (1.0) and offensive rating (121), while adding 6.8 rebounds and 1.8 steals with a 96 defensive rating. His on-ball defense is the best in the league, and that's been recognized in two straight Defensive Player of the Year honors.
What's equally as impressive? The evolution of his offensive game: Leonard buried 44.3 percent of his three-point attempts, which ranked in the top five among qualifying shooters.
The next step is a higher free-throw rate—perhaps the product of a few more superstar calls.
Leonard is sometimes labeled a product of the vaunted "Spurs System." But after watching him drop a seemingly casual career-high 35 points during the 2016-17 opener, Leonard again gave NBA fans something to remember: He is the system.
Predicted per-game stats: 33.8 minutes, 23.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.8 steals
Stats from NBA.com or Basketball-Reference. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report NBA Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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