NBA Preseason 2016: Early Title Odds for All 30 Teams
Winning a championship is the whole point for every NBA team, even if it's more prudent for some to focus on player development, day-to-day improvement and shorter-term concerns. Eventually, after all those smaller steps and narrower pursuits, the ring is the goal.
Ahead of the 2016-17 season, some squads are closer to reaching it than others.
These aren't quite the same as power rankings, though the lower reaches will look similar. If you're bad enough to rank in the bottom 10 of the league, chances are your championship odds are so low as to be basically meaningless. The Los Angeles Lakers absolutely cannot win a title this season; it's unfathomable. So what's the difference, really, between 10,000-1 and 500-1?
An impossibility is an impossibility.
Here's how everyone—from the Lakers to the historically fearsome Golden State Warriors—stacks up in the title chase.
30. Los Angeles Lakers: 750-1
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"We're not going to coach in a manner where winning is the ultimate goal, like it is a lot of times you're in the regular season," Lakers head coach Luke Walton said before his team's first preseason game against the Sacramento Kings, per ESPN.com's Jovan Buha.
Way to leave an out, Coach, but nobody's fooled. The Lakers aren't really a "this year" team—not now in the preseason, and not when the regular season kicks off at the end of October. At no point will winning be the ultimate goal.
Short-term success is only meaningful insofar as it points to what the more distant future holds. Can D'Angelo Russell run an offense by himself? Will Brandon Ingram force his way into the first unit by season's end? Is Julius Randle enough of a perimeter threat to be part of a modern frontcourt?
The Lakers need those answers this year, and there's no way trying to win some random game in October or February or April will matter more than getting them. Winning a championship requires near-term thinking, and the Lakers, rightfully, are focusing on the bigger picture instead.
29. Phoenix Suns: 500-1
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The Phoenix Suns check in below a couple of teams that might be objectively worse than they are. But that's because of their conference situation—maybe the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets will win fewer games than the Suns, but Phoenix's theoretical path to a championship would have to run through the Golden State Warriors.
We have to account for that somehow—even this far down the chain.
Eric Bledsoe, if healthy, is one of the best guards in the league. Devin Booker's sweet stroke and burgeoning confidence should fit nicely next to him.
The Suns are in a developmental phase, and they'll spend this season figuring out what they've got in Booker, Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss. Seventy games from Bledsoe could produce a win total that creeps into the 30s, but that's about as optimistic as the Suns' outlook gets.
A title, then, is totally out of the question. Especially in the West.
28. Philadelphia 76ers: 400-1
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It was never going to happen this year, but the sting of Ben Simmons' broken foot is greater than it'd be for another bottom-feeding team because the Philadelphia 76ers got to this point by focusing exclusively on a championship.
The Process was supposed to maximize Philly's shot at a ring (eventually), and getting Simmons with the top pick in June's draft was part of it.
A source told ESPN's Jeff Goodman (via colleague Marc Stein) he's expected to miss three months, though the 76ers' history of conservative recovery plans suggests we should expect a longer layoff. And why not be cautious? Disappointing as the injury deja vu may be, Simmons was always going to be a whole lot more important to the 2019-20 Sixers than the 2016-17 version.
Plus, there's some glass-half-full upside with Dario Saric sure to see a bigger role, as PhillyMag.com's Derek Bodner explains: "Saric will be asked to use his creativity in transition, with his rare ability to grab a rebound and push the ball himself to create opportunities for his teammates. He will be asked to make shots from the perimeter to open things up for Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor in the post, and he’ll hustle."
Saric and Embiid mean the Sixers will be worth watching. So there's that.
27. Brooklyn Nets: 400-1
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Maybe this is uncomfortably close to hot-take territory, but the Nets might not be as terrible as many expect.
A championship is laughable, and a postseason berth is profoundly unlikely. But a team with Brook Lopez, Jeremy Lin, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Bojan Bogdanovic won't finish with the worst record in the league. According to Odds Shark, that's precisely what's expected, though.
Brooklyn's over/under is an NBA-low 20.5.
This team won 21 games a year ago, has no incentive to tank because of its pick debt to the Boston Celtics and swapped Lionel Hollins for Kenny Atkinson, which I'm comfortable calling an upgrade, sight unseen.
The Nets are going to be bad, but they won't be the worst. That's a difference worth appreciating.
26. Sacramento Kings: 300-1
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The Sacramento Kings should be better, but not so much better that they cross over into territory you'd feel comfortable calling good.
After 33 wins a year ago, 40 seems like a stretch in 2016-17. So the Kings will do their best to distract from what should be modest improvement by being conspicuously different: New coach, new arena, new uniforms and new additions: Ty Lawson, Matt Barnes, Arron Afflalo, Anthony Tolliver and Garrett Temple.
Also, a new style.
"It’s been tough, honestly," DeMarcus Cousins told reporters, per Jason Jones of the Sacramento Bee. "To shake off the way we used to play, to a...more traditional way, it’s been tough, but I think guys have been great about it. We’re working hard."
Dave Joerger is the best coach the Kings have had since Rick Adelman, and Cousins remains a major talent. A championship is still inconceivable for now—new identity or not.
25. Milwaukee Bucks: 300-1
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Khris Middleton was the last guy the Milwaukee Bucks could afford to lose.
A torn hamstring in training camp required surgery, and the Bucks estimate a six-month recovery for their 25-year-old wing. Barring a miracle, that's a lost season.
Milwaukee added Matthew Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic to a roster that shot and made fewer threes than any other last year. Those two should help address the team's greatest weakness (one that essentially disqualifies them from having a functional offense in the modern NBA), but they can't compensate for the loss of Middleton, a 40 percent shooter from deep on nearly 1,000 career attempts.
Giannis Antetokounmpo will continue to be a fascinating talent at the point, and Jabari Parker could take a leap in his third season. But getting back to the playoffs after falling out last year will be much more difficult without Middleton, Milwaukee's most indispensable player.
Extensive research indicates you cannot win a title if you don't make the postseason.
24. New Orleans Pelicans: 250-1
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The Solomon Hill signing was fine, the Langston Galloway one was even better than that and rookie Buddy Hield could pretty easily replace the shooting that left with Eric Gordon. All that and the expectation of a better season from Anthony Davis still don't get the New Orleans Pelicans into anything approximating surefire playoff range, though.
That's because last year's 28th-ranked defense doesn't look like it got much better.
Jrue Holiday's return is hazy, and if Hield is good enough offensively to play big minutes right away, he'll almost certainly be a negative on the other end. Can Galloway guard both backcourt spots at the same time?
The Pels still have a counterproductive personnel mix highlighted by Omer Asik and Alexis Ajinca preventing Davis from playing center full time. And while losing Ryan Anderson could improve the D by itself, it's not as though Hill (who should play a lot of power forward but won't for the same reason Davis won't see enough time at the 5) is an established stopper.
Better health and bounce-back campaign from Davis could help New Orleans win as many as 10 more games than it did a year ago, but this roster mix just isn't right.
23. Orlando Magic: 250-1
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The Orlando Magic have two excellent starting big-man tandems, but while there's a lot to be said for depth, there's just as much to be said for sensible asset allocation.
Adding Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo juices the interior defense, but it also marginalizes Nikola Vucevic to some degree and, more importantly, shoves Aaron Gordon into a suboptimal role as a small forward. An injury or two would make the rotation issues moot, but as it stands now, the Magic are kind of in their own way.
Head coach Frank Vogel could still arrive at the correct conclusion, a closing 4-5 tandem of Gordon and Ibaka, but that leaves two eight-figure bigs on the bench during most high-leverage situations.
"I think you can play big in today's NBA as long as you have defensive versatility," Vogel told Sporting News' Adi Joseph. "And we have two of the best switching bigs in the NBA in Bismack Biyombo and Serge Ibaka. So I don't think we compromise our athleticism by playing with the size we're going to play with this year."
You sure compromise it by moving Gordon to the 3, though.
The Magic looked like a playoff team early last year, but inexperience and coaching turmoil rendered them lottery-bound again. Perennially young and rebuilding, Orlando's offseason suggests a focus shift toward winning now. That might mean a postseason trip, but as a seventh or eighth seed (at best), ring talk is still out of the question.
22. Denver Nuggets: 250-1
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The Denver Nuggets are a playoff team, according to ESPN.com's RPM-based win projections. That's not something you can say about any of the preceding clubs—except the Bucks, who had an RPM win projection of 40.9 and were slated for a No. 7 finish in the East before Middleton's injury.
The point is: We've reached an important cutoff here. From this point forward, you can find defensible postseason expectations. That's an important hurdle for our purposes because, again, you kind of need to be a playoff team to have a shot at a championship.
As for the Nuggets, the optimism stems from two sources: The young roster is likely to improve, and the veteran contributors will probably be healthier than they were a year ago. So Emmanuel Mudiay, Nikola Jokic and Jamaal Murray should get to lean on Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler.
That's a nice mix of promise and proven production. You don't really have to squint that hard to see a playoff contender here.
21. Chicago Bulls: 225-1
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This is SB Nation's Paul Flannery being more positive than most about the Chicago Bulls: "So, I don't think it's going to be a total disaster; certainly they can win enough to keep the wolves at bay. But I don't think it's going to be successful, and I'm not sure what the endgame is here."
Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade eat into Jimmy Butler's ball-handling role and cramp the floor with nonexistent perimeter shooting. Head coach Fred Hoiberg didn't wow anyone last year either, and now he has some big-time personalities to deal with as he tries again to implement an uptempo, spacing-based system with a roster poorly outfitted to maximize it.
There are just challenges—in scheme, personnel, personality and fit—all over the place here.
Still, Butler is an All-Star in his prime, and there are useful young pieces scattered throughout the roster. A postseason trip is possible, but as Flannery correctly concludes, a first-round playoff out is essentially this team's best hope.
20. Miami Heat: 200-1
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Without Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, the Miami Heat are starting over.
Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson are the future, with Goran Dragic acting as a sort of steward for the present. Defining an identity will be tricky, and so will rebuilding the image of an organization devoted to concepts like loyalty and family.
That's not to say Miami's rather unceremonious tie-cutting with Bosh was wholly business-driven. It is to say the Heat have lost the benefit of the doubt in that regard, as Thomas Johnson of the Washington Post wrote: "The cold, dispassionate end to the Wade era in Miami unraveled a lot of the family-first drapery the organization wraps itself in."
This is a transitional season, even if there's real talent on the roster. Transitional seasons don't yield titles.
Also, don't forget that the Heat have quietly embraced the tank in the past. They did it in 2007-08 and at the end of the 2014-15 season. We could see that strategy resurface if things go sideways during the first couple of months this year.
19. New York Knicks: 150-1
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Derrick Rose doesn't know what superteam means, but his misguided enthusiasm is probably a good thing for the New York Knicks. They need to believe this oddly constructed mix will work now because this season may be as good as it gets for a while.
Optimism can only help.
Rose will be a free agent this summer, Joakim Noah and Carmelo Anthony will decline (as all aging players do), and only Kristaps Porzingis projects as a significant improvement going forward.
As he gets better, New York's other key players will get worse—probably at faster rates.
That means the Knicks need to maximize what they've got while they've got it because the next potential championship iteration of the team, led hypothetically by Porzingis in his prime and an entirely different supporting cast, is a long way off.
18. Washington Wizards: 100-1
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We're almost through the triple digits on these odds, which means we're getting to the teams which you could plausibly imagine deep playoff runs for. The Washington Wizards are one such example, though their recent track record of inconsistency and disappointment puts them on the fringes.
With a new head coach in Scott Brooks and a new style, Washington knows to keep its early expectations reasonable.
"Everything’s not going to be perfect," Bradley Beal said before the Wizards' first preseason contest, per Candace Buckner of the Washington Post. "So I hope everybody’s not coming in expecting we’re going to be this picture-perfect team. Because it’s not."
If Beal and John Wall stay healthy and the Wizards get some growth from wings Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre, there's potential for a top-10 offense. If Brooks' defense-first mentality makes the most of Ian Mahinmi in the middle, the defense could reach that territory, too.
Of course, it's also possible the Wizards can't shoot, defend only sporadically and wind up flirting with .500 all year.
17. Minnesota Timberwolves: 80-1
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Wild enthusiasm is priced in here, as the Minnesota Timberwolves won't shock anyone by missing the playoffs entirely, but could also notch a first-round upset.
Conservatively, head coach Tom Thibodeau should make the defense respectable on his own, and Karl-Anthony Towns will be an All-NBA player this year. There's so much room for improvement from the likes of Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, Gorgui Dieng, Kris Dunn, Ricky Rubio and so on.
The Timberwolves will almost certainly not stink.
But expecting Thibs, Towns and a very young roster to secure 50 wins and a certain postseason appearance is a mistake, even if it's different from saying it can't happen. We all want to believe in the best-case scenario because it's so exciting, which is probably why these odds will actually seem low to some Timberwolves acolytes.
It's no fun, but the prudent way to look at this ultra-youthful, ultra-talented team is to see the slim chance of a stunning leap alongside the safer certainty of solid progress.
16. Dallas Mavericks: 75-1
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Even if you're sure the Dallas Mavericks made major upgrades by replacing Zaza Pachulia and Chandler Parsons with Andrew Bogut and Harrison Barnes (which, why would you be?), you still have to concede they'll struggle to be one of the top eight teams in the West.
The Mavs are ranked relatively high here—higher than almost anywhere else I've seen—because they're just one of those organizations that has earned the benefit of the doubt.
Head coach Rick Carlisle's scheming gives them a puncher's chance in any postseason matchup, Bogut is a proven defensive anchor who looked dominant in spurts playing for Australia and Dirk Nowitzki is still Dirk Nowitzki.
There's an experience level and a professionalism with the Mavs that has to count for something.
Sure, Dallas could fall apart and win 28 games. But it could also sneak into the No. 8 spot with 42 victories and hassle a contender for a while.
15. Indiana Pacers: 70-1
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Subtracting George Hill, Ian Mahinmi and Frank Vogel means there's no way the Indiana Pacers rank third in defensive rating again. They seem to have embraced that idea, opting for more offensive punch in their personnel additions and promising more pace.
It's just hard to see how Al Jefferson, Thaddeus Young and Jeff Teague will spark enough offensive improvement to offset the missing defense.
Identity changes are fine, and it's fair to argue the Pacers were in need of a fresh approach. But this defense-for-offense swap doesn't feel like a one-for-one exchange; it seems like Indiana gave up more than it got in the bargain.
That said, this is still probably a playoff team—albeit one that will look much different than the group that pushed the Toronto Raptors in the first round last spring. Paul George is one of the dozen best players in the league as well, and that's meaningful in the title-odds conversation.
14. Detroit Pistons: 66-1
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Reggie Jackson can't miss major time if the Detroit Pistons want to make any serious noise, but that's exactly what ESPN's Marc Stein reported might happen.
Left knee tendinitis is dampening the most optimism Detroit has felt in years, but at least the team won't completely fall apart without its point guard.
Ish Smith is backing up Jackson now, which is a leaps-and-bounds upgrade from Steve Blake a year ago. As a result, Detroit's floor is higher than it was in 2015-16. Its ceiling may be higher, too, as depth at every other position and another year of development from the likes of Andre Drummond and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should lead to a win total higher than last season's 44.
Head coach Stan Van Gundy is feeling good, according to comments he made to Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press: "There’s something different; it’s certainly different from what we’ve had here. Last year was better than the first year. This is considerably better than last year in terms of guys’ focus and being really on top of stuff."
If Van Gundy's being positive during training camp, you know something's going on.
13. Oklahoma City Thunder: 50-1
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Sorry, but if you lose Serge Ibaka and Kevin Durant in the same offseason, it doesn't really matter what else you do. Your title odds are going to take a serious hit.
Russell Westbrook will produce like crazy, Steven Adams will solidify himself as one of the league's best centers and Billy Donovan will have fun endlessly tweaking his versatile lineups. But the Thunder simply aren't the frightening force they once were.
Fifty victories seems like a stretch after a healthy KD led the Oklahoma City Thunder to just 55 in 2015-16, and there are shooting and spacing concerns galore with the current group. No surprise after losing two of the absolute best frontcourt floor-stretchers at their positions.
Maintaining an offensive rating in the league's top half will be a challenge, as Cameron Payne's broken foot means only Westbrook and Victor Oladipo will threaten defenses off the dribble for a while. Shot creation is going to be an issue—after giving up 142 points in an exhibition against Real Madrid, maybe defense will, too.
12. Memphis Grizzlies: 45-1
19 of 30This isn't complicated: If Marc Gasol is healthy, the Memphis Grizzlies are going to win 60 percent of their games and make life miserable for a playoff opponent or two before falling short of a ring. That's standard operating procedure for an organization that refuses to embrace modern pace-and-space basketball but also refuses to be undone by its outmoded style.
Gasol expects to be better than ever this season, which is saying something, and everyone seems to like what new head coach David Fizdale is preaching in camp.
"He's been A1 since day one," Tony Allen told Geoff Calkins of the Memphis Commercial Appeal.
It's never been sexy to back the Grizzlies; Even under Fizdale and with Chandler Parsons on the wing, little will change stylistically. This is still a team designed to bludgeon opponents, but this recipe just keeps working as long as the principals are fit enough to play.
If I could get assurance of more D.J. Stephens dunks like the preseason one above, I'd happily bump Memphis' odds up to 25-1. Holy smokes.
11. Atlanta Hawks: 45-1
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"It’s kind of strange to look at it in a statistical context when you are the second-best defense," Atlanta Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer told Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal Constitution. "There is only one spot to move up. I would love to be the best defensive team in the league. But if you put the stats aside, I do feel like we can be better defensively."
It's a lofty goal.
Meeting it will depend on Dwight Howard not being basketball poison and Paul Millsap sustaining his utter brilliance as he pushes further past 30. The latter seems likelier than the former, though perhaps the Hawks' cultural stability will convince Howard to cut the ball-demanding, sulking, locker room-dissent-sowing schtick for good.
If Howard defends the rim and cleans the glass (Atlanta was the third-worst rebounding team in the league last year), the Hawks could challenge clubs like the Boston Celtics and Utah Jazz for that top defensive spot. And a great defense will be enough to keep Atlanta right in the mix for a top-four seed in the East.
10. Portland Trail Blazers: 45-1
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Damian Lillard isn't interested in the superteam trend, which is convenient because his Portland Trail Blazers just finished an offseason that sets the organization's ceiling at "very good"—a little short of "super."
Locking in years of assured competitiveness is fine. If you're a Blazers fan, you've got Lillard, C.J. McCollum and solid role players committed for a good long while. They'll compete for a mid-tier playoff spot indefinitely.
That's worth a top-10 spot in the odds department because being in the mix (and already having second-round playoff experience) matters. Portland remains, however, outside the realm of serious contenders.
Its cap situation going forward will make it very hard to find a third star-caliber talent capable of moving it closer to that territory.
9. Charlotte Hornets: 40-1
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Losing Jeremy Lin, Al Jefferson and especially Courtney Lee is a big deal for the Charlotte Hornets.
Getting Michael Kidd-Gilchrist back is bigger.
In 2014-15, MKG played 55 games and posted a plus-3.1 net rating for a team that finished 16 games below .500. That's really hard to do, and during his dramatically shortened 2015-16 campaign, Kidd-Gilchrist was even more positively effective, posting a plus-15.2 in 205 minutes.
Basically, he's the best player in the NBA that you forget exists every year.
Three straight seasons marred by injury are cause for worry, but as long as Kidd-Gilchrist can stay on the floor, the Hornets will be excellent. Best-case scenario: They'll get sustained production from Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum—both of whom posted career years in 2015-16—and MKG forces his way into the Defensive Player of the Year conversation with his best season ever.
That could be enough for 50 wins and the third seed in the East.
8. Houston Rockets: 35-1
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Setting the Rockets' odds this high is basically an acknowledgment that a team assured of playing exceptionally well on one end of the floor has a shot to be special—no matter how poorly it might play on the other.
It doesn't feel controversial to suggest Houston's offense—directed by Mike D'Antoni, produced by James Harden and filled out by a cast of capable scorers—will be fantastic. Nobody projects as the Warriors' equal in point production, but the Rockets could very well wind up as the second-best offense in the league.
At worst, it's tough to envision them finishing outside the top five in offensive rating.
By dint of such a one-way approach to roster construction (hi, Ryan Anderson!), the Rockets might also finish in the bottom 10 defensively. But what if Clint Capela turns out to be a big-minute anchor in the middle, and Harden tries again on D? What if, somehow, this team finishes around 15th in defense?
A lot of wins will happen, that's what. That's enough to make Houston dangerous on any night against anyone, with the possible long-shot upside of decent D and a deep playoff run.
7. Utah Jazz: 35-1
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The Jazz don't want for much: They have a proven defense led by Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors inside, they have talented wing scorers, they have George Hill stabilizing the point guard spot until Dante Exum is ready, and they have newly added vets in Boris Diaw and Joe Johnson.
Injuries and offensive droughts plagued Utah a year ago, but with added depth and another year in Quin Snyder's system, it's less likely we'll see those issues derail this year's promise.
That's still the currency the Jazz trade in, by the way: promise.
This group hasn't established itself as a playoff threat because it hasn't been there, which means we might only get one of those happy-to-be-here first-round outs so many teams endure before really starting a run. Then again, this is an on-paper monster without a demonstrable weakness. And much like the Rockets, a definite one-way strength, defense, means there's a very high floor here.
"I think we can be better defensively," Snyder told Jody Genessy of the Deseret News. "There’s no question about that. It’s just got to be more of a focus."
Utah, dominant and developing at the same time, is every in-the-know NBA pundit's clear breakout choice for good reason.
6. Toronto Raptors: 30-1
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This is only partly about losing Biyombo, a game-changing defensive center who made a real difference for the Toronto Raptors in last year's dogged, halting stumble to the conference finals.
The bigger issue preventing Toronto, a 56-win team last season, from better odds is inevitable regression. Both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan enjoyed career years in 2015-16. More importantly, they missed nine games combined. Expecting the same production and health is probably a mistake, and it's also worth noting that Toronto's pythagorean win estimate (essentially how many games they "should" have won based on points scored and allowed) was only 53 last year, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
By that measure, they were fortunate to reach 56 victories.
So if you take 53 wins as a baseline, factor in better health from DeMarre Carroll and growth from Norman Powell, maybe that total rises. But if you consider the improbability of repeat career years from Lowry and DeRozan, plus Biyombo's exit, duplicating 2015-16's efforts seems unlikely.
That said, Toronto will still be very good. Only two East teams have a better shot at a ring.
5. Boston Celtics: 20-1
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You can dig into the Boston Celtics' depth, as evidenced by the reserves routinely beating the starters in practice. Or you can point to the likely improvement ahead for young players such as Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley and Terry Rozier.
But maybe the best way to explain why Boston tops Toronto and all but four other teams in the title odds discussion is the simplest: The 48-win Celtics effectively swapped Evan Turner and Jared Sullinger for Al Horford and lottery pick Jaylen Brown.
That's an upgrade.
Boston will defend like crazy (it ranked fourth last year), and Horford's perfect fit as a pick-and-pop big who can also facilitate from the elbow will dial up the offense. Barring something unforeseen, the Celtics will rank in the top 10 on both ends, win at least 50 games and should be considered the Cavaliers' top in-conference threat.
4. Los Angeles Clippers: 18-1
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A 45-point preseason thumping at the hands of the Warriors didn't do much to validate the Los Angeles Clippers' status as championship threats, but even the most shocking exhibition results are still just exhibition results.
Especially when weighed against L.A.'s consistent stretch of mid-50 win totals under Doc Rivers and Warriors coach Steve Kerr's postgame comments: "To me," Kerr told reporters, "they’re one of the teams that are real contenders for the championship."
The Clips are still here, still driven by a three-man core as good as almost any other in the league and still equal parts ornery and effective. As always, the wing positions are weak, and an injury to either Chris Paul or Blake Griffin means the end of any title hopes. But there's no real reason to expect this Clippers team to be anything less than a top-four seed in the West with a shot to reach the conference finals.
Maybe a spotty postseason mark means Paul and his team can't be trusted to go all the way, but none of the preceding 26 teams has Los Angeles' combination of talent, continuity and experience.
3. San Antonio Spurs: 10-1
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We've jumped up a tier and arrived at the most serious level of championship contender.
Tim Duncan is gone, but Pau Gasol could help the San Antonio Spurs recharge a 2015-16 offense that came to rely more on isolation and post-ups than expected. The defense will take a hit, but all that means is San Antonio won't rate as one of the greatest point-preventing teams of all time.
Even with Gasol's serious limitations against pick-and-roll sets, he'll defend the rim and won't keep San Antonio from ranking in or near the top five on D. You can only be so bad with Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green engulfing perimeter scorers.
Another 67 wins is probably a stretch, but the Spurs can regress significantly and still be the second-best team in the West. The Thunder aren't what they were last year, the Rockets have their flaws and the Jazz may not be totally ready. Other than the Clippers, it's hard to see a viable threat to another runner-up finish in the Western Conference.
It'll take an injury or three for the Spurs to beat the Warriors and reach the Finals, but that's true for everyone in the West.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers: 5-1
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J.R. Smith still needs to sign, and the backup point guard spot is an issue, but that won't keep the defending champion Cavaliers from easily owning the best odds in the Eastern Conference.
LeBron James proved in last year's Finals that his top gear is still unmatchable, and the Cavs will do everything they can to make sure it's still available to him in April 2017. That will probably mean liberal rest, a week or two off at a time, and a few regular-season wins sacrificed to the gods of injury prevention.
With as many glowing things as I said about the Celtics, they can't possibly scare Cleveland.
And Toronto's six-game defeat in the conference finals wasn't a cause for concern either. The Cavs were basically toying with an opponent they knew wasn't a threat after two blowout wins in Games 1 and 2. Cleveland outscored the Raptors by 93 points in that series...despite losing two games.
Under normal circumstances, a defending champ with no clear in-conference competition would easily have the best title odds.
There is nothing normal about the only team with a better chance than the Cavs.
1. Golden State Warriors: 2-1
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There won't be a better offense in the league, nobody else has four All-NBA talents in their primes and you can't find another team with greater highlight potential.
We've known it since Kevin Durant agreed to sign: This version of the Warriors is an unprecedented experiment, a test of what happens when you add the best scorer in the league to a roster that already has the two best shooters.
It's fair to expect defensive indifference at points—that's bound to happen with talent that knows it can outscore anyone. Even if Golden State cruises, though, a defensive rating outside the top 10 is hard to imagine. And when the closing lineup with KD in place of Harrison Barnes takes the floor, nothing else will matter.
The only team in the West that could have beaten the Warriors last year disbanded, and the Dubs got their best player. For that reason, you could argue Golden State's path to the Finals is even easier than Cleveland's.
Golden State solved the Spurs, Houston won't be able to stop it, the Clips have no shot and Portland fell in six with Stephen Curry missing half of the conference semis. Maybe the Jazz's size will give the Warriors problems at some point, but it's hard to see a real challenger.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com.
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