Golden State Warriors' Dominant Season Required More Luck Than You Think
By shifting paradigms throughout their historic season, the Golden State Warriors have redefined NBA norms on everything from shot selection to switch-heavy defensive schemes.
In the process, they've also messed around with our beloved cliches.
Better to be lucky than good? Nope, not anymore. In their pursuit of the regular-season wins record, the Dubs have shown it's best to be lucky and good.
Golden State isn't where it is today—on the cusp of 73 wins and NBA immortality—without some seriously good fortune.
The Wins That Shouldn't Have Been
Though there have been nearly a dozen Warriors victories that could have gone the other way, two stand out as especially unlikely.
In the first, a 107-99 overtime win against the Brooklyn Nets on Nov. 14, Andre Iguodala hit a contested three to tie the game with 5.9 seconds left in regulation. Then, Brook Lopez missed what might have been the easiest point-blank shot of his career.
The Warriors, down 17 at one point, escaped.
The other victory that ranks highest on the improbability scale? One of the best games in the NBA in years—a 121-118 overtime win against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Feb. 27. You know, the one in which Stephen Curry hit a three-pointer, his 12th of the game, from 38 feet to win it.
Consider the absurdity of Golden State winning that game.
If Curry hits, say, 10 triples instead of tying the single-game record with a dozen, the Warriors lose.
If Iguodala doesn't make two free throws (he's shooting 61.7 percent from the foul line this year) after drawing a foul with 0.7 seconds left in regulation, the Warriors lose.
If Curry doesn't return from a gruesome ankle sprain in the third quarter, the Warriors lose. If OKC doesn't choke away a 12-point lead in the fourth period, the Warriors lose.
And if it feels like two measly victories don't mean much, remember that if the Warriors hadn't secured them, it would be mathematically impossible for them to break the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls' record of 72 wins. If they'd lost to Brooklyn or Oklahoma City, the best they could do by winning their five remaining games would be to tie the Bulls.
Oh, and there were plenty of other games the Dubs could have easily lost.
The Other Asterisks
- Nov. 4 against the Los Angeles Clippers: Down by nine with 7:26 left in the fourth quarter, Golden State wins by four after closing the game with a 23-10 run.
- Nov. 19 at the Clippers: Down 23 in the first half, the Warriors hit 11 of their 15 shots and score 39 points in the fourth quarter to win 124-117. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the win moved Golden State's record in games it trailed by at least 20 points to 3-3 since the start of last season. The rest of the league's mark in that span was 13-486.
- Dec. 11 at the Boston Celtics: Isaiah Thomas and Kelly Olynyk each miss a potential game-winner at the end of regulation, and the Warriors survive in double overtime to reach 24-0.
- Jan. 2 against the Denver Nuggets: Curry misses the second half, Golden State squanders a 26-point lead and Klay Thompson's layup with 15.6 seconds left decides a 111-108 overtime squeaker.
- Jan. 30 at Philadelphia 76ers: Harrison Barnes hits a three with 0.2 seconds left for a 108-105 win, after which head coach Steve Kerr, bemused, explains to reporters: "If the gods delivered what should have happened, we probably should have lost, because that's what happens when you mess around with the game and with the ball."
- Feb. 24 at Miami Heat: Curry drills two threes in the final 1:06—the second over Hassan Whiteside. Both retake the lead, and both are 27-footers. Just because, Curry also hits a 40-footer at the end of the first quarter.
- March 1 against the Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks outscore the Warriors by 11 in the second half to force overtime in a game Curry misses to rest a bruised leg. Draymond Green hits an off-balance three to help secure the win. "It's just a desperation heave," Green tells reporters after the game. "It's just one of those things; sometimes the ball just bounces your way."
- March 30 at the Utah Jazz: Thompson hits a game-tying three with 15 seconds left in regulation to complete a fourth-quarter comeback and force overtime. Derrick Favors, who was wildly effective against Golden State on both ends, only plays 19 minutes because of a knee injury. The Warriors win 103-96.
Looking over that list, it's tempting to explain away some of the results as the product of Curry's greatness. And to some extent, that's fair.
But every one of his late-game heaves from long distance is, by definition, less than a 50-50 proposition.
He's great, but he still misses more threes than he makes. If only a handful of those crunch-time prayers go unanswered, we're talking about a Warriors team aiming for a win total in the high 60s—not one on pace for 73.
Existential Questions
Golden State boasts the best clutch offense and defense in the league, which has produced a net rating of plus-44.3 points per 100 possessions in close-and-late situations, per NBA.com. There's a chicken-or-egg element to this issue. Is the Warriors' net rating so high because they've been lucky, or do they only seem lucky because they've been consistently dominant in crunch time?
Asked another way: Is this luck or skill?
The fact that Curry routinely practices the ridiculous near-half-court heaves he's made in games suggests it's more the latter than the former. And it's also key to note the Warriors generally save their best lineups for the ends of games. In many ways, they make their own luck by being prepared and leveraging their talent advantages when the game is in the balance.
We also shouldn't underestimate the value of off-the-charts confidence.
"When I look at our seven losses [the total is eight now], I look at 'em and say, 'Ah, three teams really beat us," Green said on KNBR in San Francisco (via CSN Bay Area). "There's a little asterisk by Dallas, by Denver (laughing), with Milwaukee when we were coming off a triple overtime and getting in at 4 o'clock in the morning. There's a little asterisk by those."
It's true there are excuses baked into a few of the Warriors' defeats. Curry sat for one of them and Green for another, and the schedule dictated some others. But there are more asterisk-tagged wins than losses on Golden State's schedule—except the Warriors don't see it that way. Instead, they seem to view those miraculous finishes as predestined, the result of preparation and tons of talent.
Maybe they're right.
Or maybe at some point, the line between luck and skill stops mattering.
Maybe what's happening in this incredible season is more like fate.
Follow @gt_hughes on Twitter.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com unless otherwise indicated and accurate through games played Monday.
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