Every NBA Team's Biggest Flight Risk in 2016 Free Agency
Flight risks are what make NBA free agency. The summer months wouldn't be nearly as interesting if it weren't for the possibility of players, many of them household names, swapping out one jersey for another.
These are all players whom incumbent teams should want to keep or who represent a significant part of an organization's core but who also, for one reason or another, aren't guaranteed to remain in their current digs.
Stars and high-impact players will receive special consideration. But the issue will not be forced. If a big name is a lock to stay put—LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, for example—they will be passed over. Likewise, if there isn't a flight risk on a team's roster worth mentioning, we must admit as much.
Atlanta Hawks: Kent Bazemore
1 of 30
Age: 26
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 11.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.2 steals, 43.8 percent shooting, 13.0 player efficiency rating
League executives told ESPN.com's Zach Lowe Kent Bazemore could command up to $12 million annually in his next contract, which projects as a huge problem for the Atlanta Hawks.
Bazemore is wrapping up a two-year deal he signed with Atlanta in 2014. The Hawks, as a result, only own his early Bird rights. They can offer him 175 percent of his current salary or 104.5 percent of the NBA's average income, whichever amounts to more.
Paying him 104.5 percent of the league's average salary ($4.1 million) is more in this case. But that puts the Hawks' best offer at $4.3 million to start. They'll have to dip into their cap space to go higher.
And they'll need to go higher.
It's Bazemore who often draws the toughest defensive assignment in the post-DeMarre Carroll era, and his 35-plus percent clip from downtown makes him a system-friendly addition for any team in need of three-and-D wings. He won't have any problem fetching a deal that averages $8 million per year, and that $12 million figure, while seemingly unbelievable, is far from out of the question.
Boston Celtics: Evan Turner
2 of 30
Age: 27
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 10.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 45.3 percent shooting, 13.7 PER
Evan Turner, the second overall pick in 2010, has yet to sign his first long-term contract. He has flourished with the Boston Celtics, under head coach Brad Stevens, for two seasons on a bargain-bin salary. That, ironically, could result in Turner pricing himself out of Beantown.
Sources told CSN New England's Chris Mannix the New York Knicks are expected show interest in Boston's perimeter pest, and they won't be alone. Turner is the only reserve averaging at least 10 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists and one steal, and his defensive versatility cannot be overstated.
Opponents shoot under 30 percent from long range with him on their case, and he defends a healthy mix of shooting guards, small forwards and power forwards over the course of any game. The Celtics will even use him as a de facto point guard when Isaiah Thomas isn't on the floor.
Draining triples just over 21 percent of the time will keep Turner well outside max-deal discussions. But there's a strong chance his market consists of contracts paying him well into eight figures per year—a price tag that does anything but assure his return to Boston.
Brooklyn Nets: Thomas Robinson
3 of 30
Age: 25
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted (player option)
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 3.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.5 steals, 41.8 percent shooting, 12.6 PER
The temptation to roll with "no one" is strong here.
In the absence of draft picks, though, the Brooklyn Nets must turn to taking and grooming flyers. Thomas Robinson is one such dice roll who could have staying power.
Brooklyn doesn't play him much; he barely averages 10 minutes per game. His complete lack of touch outside five feet is disturbing, and he's a shockingly poor pick-and-roll finisher for someone with raw explosion.
Robinson nevertheless posts absurd numbers in short bursts. He joins Andre Drummond as the only qualified players clearing 10 points, 10 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes. His defensive box plus-minus (DBPM)—which measures how much better the average defensive team is per 100 possessions with a given player on the floor—also ranks second among Brooklyn's players, trailing only Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.
If he declines next season's $1.1 million player option, it'll be so he can command more on the open market. And the Nets, as a team in transition, cannot justify making any pricey long-term investments in relative unknowns.
Charlotte Hornets: Marvin Williams
4 of 30
Age: 29
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 11.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.0 blocks, 44.6 percent shooting, 16.5 PER
Frontcourt talent who polices the paint on defense and spaces the floor on offense is in vogue. Marvin Williams has become one of the many faces for this revolution, even if he's not as widely recognized.
Rival shooters are converting less than 45 percent of their looks at the rim against him, a top-five mark among the 150-plus players who have made 50 or more appearances and face at least two such looks per contest.
Williams' sweet shooting is a pivotal part of the Charlotte Hornets' offensive reinvention. He is putting down more than 40 percent of his long balls overall and shoots at an even higher clip off the catch.
Finally, consider this: Four players have ever topped 800 points, 540 rebounds, 75 blocks and 150 made three-pointers in a single season: Kevin Durant (2015-16), Dirk Nowitzki (2000-01), Paul Pierce (2001-02) and Rasheed Wallace (2005-06). Williams is on track to become the fifth.
That thing you hear is the sound of various teams around the league scribbling Williams' name across big, fat, zero-laden checks.
Chicago Bulls: Joakim Noah
5 of 30
Age: 31
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 4.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.0 blocks, 38.3 percent shooting, 14.1 PER
Joakim Noah was the heart and soul of the Chicago Bulls not too long ago. He played through injuries, authored epic celebrations and emerged as a fringe MVP candidate in 2013-14 during one of Derrick Rose's extended sabbaticals.
Now, with 2016 free agency fast approaching, he's most likely a goner.
Chicago tried dealing Noah ahead of the trade deadline, and head coach Fred Hoiberg's offense doesn't cater to a big with limited post-up chops and an iffy jump shot—even if that big is an expert passer and one of just four centers in league history to record an assist percentage north of 20 more than twice.
Carving out a consistent role in Chicago is simply impossible for Noah. Pau Gasol is a bigger part of the offense and will be a free agent himself; Taj Gibson is under contract for another year; Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic need to see time at the 4; and rookie Bobby Portis just needs to see time at all.
Expect the Bulls and Noah to flirt with staying together over the summer. But with Noah likely to command a long-term deal worth more annually than the $13.4 million he's making this season, also expect that dalliance to end in divorce.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Matthew Dellavedova
6 of 30
Age: 25
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 7.8 points, 2.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 0.6 steals, 41.5 percent shooting, 11.7 PER
Matthew Dellavedova's per-game numbers are modest, but he's a valuable pest. Opponents hit around 32 percent of their treys when he's on the case, and he holds pick-and-roll ball-handlers to under 38 percent shooting. His progression as an orbiting sniper is similarly valuable; he buries more than 46 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes, rendering him an ideal complement to any ball-dominant guards or wings.
More playing time and a larger role should appeal to Dellavedova. He is, after all, one of just three players averaging 11 points and six assists per 36 minutes while shooting 40 percent from long range. The other two are Stephen Curry and Tony Parker.
Shelling out big money to keep a backup point guard won't top the Cavaliers' agenda this summer. Kyrie Irving soaks up most of the playing time at the 1 and LeBron James is basically a point man, while Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith (non-guaranteed) are already on lock.
Reinvesting in the current core any further when it hasn't shown an ability to seriously challenge the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs would also put Cleveland in irresponsible territory. Change will be on the horizon if the Cavaliers end this season without a title, and Dellavedova could become collateral damage of any paradigm shift.
Dallas Mavericks: Chandler Parsons
7 of 30
Age: 27
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted (player option)
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 13.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 49.2 percent shooting, 16.2 PER
Suffering a torn meniscus in his right knee apparently won't, according to ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon, prevent Chandler Parsons from eschewing the $16 million he's owed next season and entering free agency. And that puts the Dallas Mavericks in treacherous waters.
"In a market in which most of the league will be swimming in cap space, Parsons is still expected to receive multiple maximum-contract offers," MacMahon added. "The Mavs remain the front-runners for Parsons and are prepared to pay him and aggressively bid on other free agents to add to a core for Nowitzki’s golden years and beyond."
Offering Parsons a max deal is not, despite the Mavericks' purported stance, a no-brainer. His latest injury is in the same knee he had surgically repaired last summer, and Dallas has three more years and more than $53 million tied up in Wesley Matthews, another wing working off a less-than-ideal leg injury (Achilles).
Dirk Nowitzki's bottom-of-the-barrel salary doesn't give the Mavericks carte blanche to haphazardly dole out other deals, even to someone, like Parsons, they view as a cornerstone. They need to spend their money wisely and are, statistically, barely a fringe playoff team with Parsons in the game.
That doesn't mean he won't be back or the Mavericks should definitely move on. But if he's really in line for multiple max-contract offers, there's no way his return is guaranteed when Dallas must also fill holes and spend money elsewhere.
Denver Nuggets: No One
8 of 30
Losing any one of Darrell Arthur, D.J. Augustin and Mike Miller won't set the Denver Nuggets' rebuild back by any stretch. They took the drama out of 2016 free agency last summer when they brokered extensions for Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari.
Denver has a logjam up front with Kenneth Faried, Nikola Jokic, Joffrey Lauvergne and Jusuf Nurkic, so Arthur is just overkill; Augustin is a nice insurance policy at point guard, but the Nuggets have Emmanuel Mudiay and Jameer Nelson to direct the offense; and Miller, while a good off-court mentor for one of the NBA's seven youngest teams, is no more than a garbage-time staple.
Rather than free agency, the Nuggets' focus will be on the draft and trade market. They're going to enter this summer's prospect pageant with a top-10 selection (thank the Knicks), and that frontcourt logjam suggests Denver will be working the phones looking to consolidate some of its assets.
(Insert your favorite favorite Blake Griffin-to-Denver scenario here.)
Detroit Pistons: No One
9 of 30
What will happen if the Detroit Pistons lose Steve Blake, a backup point guard, and Anthony Tolliver, a reserve forward, to outside free-agent aggressors?
Absolutely nothing.
Andre Drummond's foray into restricted free agency is Detroit's lone worry—make that would-be worry. The Pistons not only have the right to match any offer Drummond receives, but he committed to staying put by delaying his extension and ensuring the team would enjoy maximum flexibility in free agency.
All he has to do now is sign on the dotted line of the max deal Detroit will most definitely be handing him—after coach and president Stan Van Gundy gives chase to Ryan Anderson, of course.
Golden State Warriors: Festus Ezeli
10 of 30
Age: 26
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 7.5 points, 5.9 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 1.2 blocks, 55.7 percent shooting, 18.0 PER
Harrison Barnes did turn down a $64 million extension from the Warriors prior to the start of 2015-16, designating him a flight risk by default. If and when he fields a max offer sheet, Golden State, which has the ability to match, will have an expensive decision to make.
It will also be an easy decision. The Warriors are contending for best-ever status, and Barnes is part of their small-ball "Death Squad"—the most unique, and perhaps best, lineup in league history. Unless they're preparing to sign Kevin Durant, they have no business tinkering with their primary foundation, whatever the cost.
Festus Ezeli is a different story. He has appeared in less than 90 games since 2013-14 and is the proud owner of two surgically repaired knees. And yet in this new, wacky, wild salary-cap climate, he could end up making more next season than the $12.1 million reigning MVP Stephen Curry is owed.
Sure, there are questions surrounding Ezeli's health. But he and Hassan Whiteside are the only qualified players hitting 15 points, 10 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per 36 minutes.
Some team will subsequently push the bill on Ezeli's small-sample success. And with this much money at stake, there's no guarantee that team will be the Warriors.
Houston Rockets: Dwight Howard
11 of 30
Age: 30
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted (player option)
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 14.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, 1.0 steals, 1.5 blocks, 61.4 percent shooting, 19.3 PER
There are all kinds of flight risks on the Houston Rockets. Not one of them, however, is more impactful than Dwight Howard.
Houston tried pawning him off on just about any team that would listen before the trade deadline, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, and league sources previously told CBS Sports' Ken Berger that James Harden was partially behind that push.
General manager Daryl Morey doesn't seem keen on keeping Howard, either. Pressed about the big man's future during a panel at the Sloan Analytics Conference, Morey got cute, if pessimistic, per SI.com's Matt Dollinger:
"During the front office panel, ESPN’s Jackie MacMullan, who was moderating, asked Morey about re-signing Dwight Howard. Morey immediately replied: “Uh oh.” MacMullan pressed the Rockets GM on negotiations. He responded that the NBA’s max salary threshold keeps things simple. MacMullan asked, So you’re re-signing him? To which Morey responded: “I just said they had the concept.”
"
Even though he's on the wrong end of 30, decidedly past his athletic prime, Howard will seek a max deal that pays him around $31 million in 2016-17, according to Sam Amick of USA Today. He should have a hard time finding that contract, if he finds it all. He doesn't shoot threes, and Houston's defense has deteriorated under his watch.
At the very least, any max offer Howard lands won't be coming from the Rockets, who have a rookie-scale contingency plan in Clint Capela and two younger and cheaper restricted free agents in Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas.
Indiana Pacers: Ian Mahinmi
12 of 30
Age: 29
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 8.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.1 blocks, 57.4 percent shooting, 15.9 PER
Somewhat lost in the Indiana Pacers' race for a playoff spot, as well as the emergence of rookie big man Myles Turner, is the awesomeness of Ian Mahinmi.
Just four other players this season have reached 12 points, 10 rebounds, one steal and 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes while matching Mahinmi's total playing time: Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard and Mason Plumlee.
According to the Total Points Added (TPA) metric developed by Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal, Mahinmi ranks eighth among centers in points saved on the defensive end. Al Horford, Hassan Whiteside, Andrew Bogut, Tim Duncan, Pau Gasol, Rudy Gobert and DeAndre Jordan are the only towers ahead of him.
Mahinmi's DBPM is just about twice as good as any other Pacer to appear in 10 or more tilts. He is an invaluable post defender, and Indiana hasn't shied from switching him onto opposing ball-handlers.
This, from someone earning just $4 million. The thing is, he won't be earning $4 million much longer; his next contract should double his salary—triple it, even. And with Turner on the rise, in addition to Lavoy Allen being under team control through 2017-18, the transitioning Pacers may not be driven to foot the bill for Mahinmi's lucrative payday.
Los Angeles Clippers: Jeff Green
13 of 30
Age: 29
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 11.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.7 steals, 42.9 percent shooting, 13.0 PER
Jeff Green will draw a lot of attention because, well, Jeff Green always draws a lot of attention. Teams get seduced by him—by his physical tools and the idea he can hold his own defensively and, somehow, space the floor despite shooting better than 35 percent from distance for an entire year just twice.
Some potential suitors will be aware of the challenges he presents on both ends of the floor as a tweener forward who doesn't distinctly excel in any one role. Others will see what he's doing with the Los Angeles Clippers, on an individual level, prompting sizable bids.
Although the Clippers are essentially a statistical wash with him in the lineup, Green is shooting 36 percent from beyond the arc and finding nylon on nearly 42 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes since arriving in Hollywood. Opponents can't buy a bucket against him on the perimeter, and Clippers coach Doc Rivers has him capitalizing on offensive mismatches as a power forward and, at times, a center.
Is this tiny, end-of-season sample enough to earn Green a raise from the $9.7 million he's raking in now? Maybe. Either way, it'll take a hefty contract to keep him in Los Angeles. And the Clippers, as one of the few teams with limited cap flexibility, cannot reasonably pay him big bucks to stick around if Blake Griffin is still in town.
Los Angeles Lakers: Jordan Clarkson
14 of 30
Age: 23
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 15.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.1 steals, 43.7 percent shooting, 14.6 PER
On the one hand, Jordan Clarkson is stuck in that gray area between being a point guard and shooting guard, putting up numbers for a sad-sack Los Angeles Lakers squad.
On the other hand, those numbers put him in good company.
Of the 19 players averaging at least 15 points and 2.5 assists on 35 percent shooting from behind the rainbow, Clarkson is the absolute youngest. His three-point stroke has improved a great deal since last season, and he's growing more accustomed to playing off the ball, allowing him to build a rapport with backcourt mate D'Angelo Russell.
Said on-court relationship has a long way to go, but Clarkson is shooting 39 percent from three off Russell's passes, and the Lakers will surely be hesitant to break up such a promising young combination.
Luckily for them, they have the right to match any offer Clarkson receives and will have cap space to spare. Yet while his return remains likely, the prospect of paying him an average annual salary in the neighborhood of $10 to $15 million (or more), when he has less than two seasons to his resume, is not one the Lakers can take lightly.
Memphis Grizzlies: Mike Conley
15 of 30
Age: 28
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 15.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 42.2 percent shooting, 19.4 PER
Ed Stefanski, vice president of player personnel for the Memphis Grizzlies, would have us believe Mike Conley isn't a flight risk.
"We love Mike Conley. He's one of the best point guards out there," he said just before March during an appearance on SiriusXM NBA radio. "We intend to do everything we can to keep him."
Viewed in a vacuum, Conley's free agency shouldn't be an issue for Memphis. The Grizzlies can offer him the most money, and outside suitors shouldn't be chomping at the bit to max out a point guard who has never piloted a top-10 offense.
But this summer's free-agent frenzy won't exist in a vacuum. There will be more money floating around than superstar talent. Conley is one of the five best free agents available, and there are two teams in New York, the Knicks and Nets, desperate for a competent point guard.
This becomes a nonissue, of course, if the Grizzlies are willing to dangle a max deal that includes the fifth year they alone can sling. Their current core churns out 50-win crusades like LeBron James does cryptic tweets, and they've already re-signed Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph.
In the event they decide a floor general approaching the back side of his career isn't worth a max deal, this supposed nonissue instantly becomes one of the offseason's biggest mysteries.
Miami Heat: Hassan Whiteside
16 of 30
Age: 26
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 13.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 0.6 steals, 3.7 blocks, 61.1 percent shooting, 25.1 PER
Hassan Whiteside's free-agency stock has exploded.
He's the first NBA player since Hakeem Olajuwon in 1993-94 to sustain averages of at least 13.5 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game. Just five other players have ever reached those statistical yardsticks, period—and they're all in or bound to be in the Hall of Fame: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Dikembe Mutombo, Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal and David Robinson.
Those numbers, once considered to lack meaning, have never been more important to the Miami Heat. Whiteside has one of the team's highest net ratings since Jan. 1, and the defense has been unable to function without him during that time:
| 103.7 (13) | 99.9 (4) | 3.8 (8) | |
| 104.6 (10) | 105.2 (20) | -0.6 (12) |
We can say it now: Whiteside, even in an NBA emphasizing spacey bigs, is a max-contract candidate. That's good for him; it's bad news for the Heat. They don't own his Bird rights and must break into cap space if they're to retain him.
Keeping Whiteside while re-upping Luol Deng and Dwyane Wade is impossible without extreme pay cuts being involved. And this is before considering Miami's star-obsessed president, Pat Riley, will want to enter the running for the rest of this summer's top prizes.
So while Whiteside wants to stay in Miami, per Basketball Insiders' Alex Kennedy, his return is anything but an ironclad certainty.
Milwaukee Bucks: Jerryd Bayless
17 of 30
Age: 27
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 10.7 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.2 points, 0.9 steals, 42.9 percent shooting, 12.7 PER
Jerryd Bayless, a career backup, is the opposite of a sexy flight risk. But the Milwaukee Bucks need him.
Spacing is hard to come by in Brew City. The Bucks rank second to last in three-point volume and are middle-of-the-road on the accuracy scale. They don't create nearly enough catch-and-shoot opportunities, and when they do, they're among the Association's three most inefficient finishers.
Bayless' 44 percent success rate from deep paces all Bucks players who have jacked up more than one outside attempt. And his accuracy on spot-up looks is absurd; he's dropping in more than 47 percent.
Throw in the ability to run point, and Bayless' offensive dividends noticeably outweigh his defensive deficiencies.
Unfortunately for the Bucks, that should result in a raise from his current $3 million salary—an increase another team will surely fund if they won't.
Minnesota Timberwolves: No One
18 of 30
Tayshaun Prince and Greg Smith are the Minnesota Timberwolves' only free agents. What a time to be alive.
Both could stay. Both could leave. Prince could retire. It doesn't really matter.
Smith has been used sparingly since signing on for the rest of the season and doesn't pose much upside as a power forward who neither shoots threes nor blocks shots. Plus if he's playing, that means two of Nemanja Bjelica, Gorgui Dieng and Karl-Anthony Towns are not. Where's the fun in that?
Minnesota's kiddies are probably better off without Prince. He may have a winning veteran personality, but interim head coach Sam Mitchell has already played him roughly 1,000 minutes too many. Most of his court time should be divvied up among Zach LaVine, Shabazz Muhammad and Andrew Wiggins.
As such, it would be patently irresponsible of the Timberwolves to view Prince, Smith or any other low-end free agents as must-haves. Turning all the Timberpups loose is far more important.
New Orleans Pelicans: Ryan Anderson
19 of 30
Age: 27
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 17.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.6 steals, 42.7 percent shooting, 17.3 PER
Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis make for a fun frontcourt pairing. They both have three-point range, and Davis' shot-blocking lets him function at the 5.
Prior to Davis being lost for the season, even as the New Orleans Pelicans' playoff hopes were ebbing into nothingness, this duo proved to be a verifiable offensive juggernaut when slotted beside Jrue Holiday, pumping in a remarkable 110.5 points per 100 possessions.
Too bad the partnership is about to dissolve.
New Orleans has almost $37 million committed to Alexis Ajinca, Omer Asik and Davis next season. As one of six players averaging at least 15 points and six rebounds while shooting 36 percent or better from another area code, Anderson could tack on another $15 million to the primary frontcourt payroll.
Miles away from title contention, with multiple holes to fill on the wing, the Pelicans should not be considered favorites to sign Anderson unless they manage to dump the four years left on Asik's contract.
New York Knicks: Lance Thomas
20 of 30
Age: 27
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 8.2 points, 2.2 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.4 steals, 44.2 percent shooting, 10.5 PER
Untimely ankle, groin and knee injuries won't keep Lance Thomas from reaping the benefits of what has otherwise been a strong contract year.
Talk of Kent Bazemore getting eight figures annually is great news for Thomas. He is in the same class of talent. His per-game production isn't as flashy, due in part to a smaller role, but their extrapolated numbers are comparable:
| 15.0 | 43.8 | 35.6 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | |
| 13.3 | 44.2 | 40.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
Thomas, like Bazemore, carries encouraging three-and-D credentials. He is torching twine on 41 percent of his spot-up threes, and opponents shoot well below their season average when forced to go up against him.
The New York Knicks defense even borders on competent with Thomas in tow. They forfeit 103.2 points per possessions when he's on the court, which would be a top-13 mark on the season—a far cry from the bottom-eight figure they post without him (106.1).
Similar to the Hawks' situation with Bazemore, the Knicks only own Thomas' early Bird rights. To keep him, they'll most likely need to eat into cap space. And because that will entail forking over around $8 million to $12 million per year, there's a real chance they elect not to keep him.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Kevin Durant
21 of 30
Age: 27
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 27.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.2 blocks, 50.8 percent shooting, 28.0 PER
Unlike most other cases, Kevin Durant's flight-risk factor has nothing to do with money.
OK, fine. It has a little bit to do with money. The Oklahoma City Thunder have the inside track on re-signing him. They can offer him more money (and years) than any other team, and dollar signs talk.
Except Durant, now nine seasons into his career, will care equally, if not more, about winning a title. That incentivizes him to weigh all of his potential destinations, including Oklahoma City, against the possibility of said locale having the firepower necessary to successfully combat Golden State and San Antonio.
Such thinking ostensibly eliminates a ton of prospective suitors, from initial long shots like the Knicks and Lakers, to perceived threats like the Rockets and Washington Wizards. The Thunder actually become more appealing here. They have complementary stars already in place, unlike the Boston Celtics, and are the closest thing to a rival the Spurs and Warriors have outside each other.
Two other possibilities loom large, though: The Spurs and Warriors themselves.
Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical labeled Golden State as a "significant" front-runner to land Durant should he leave Oklahoma City. His colleague, Chris Mannix, heard from rival execs San Antonio plans on joining the sweepstakes, too.
Durant will have to listen if either or both of the Spurs and Warriors come calling. They own two of the five largest point differentials in recorded history and have manufactured open-ended title windows that aren't in danger of closing by 2017, when both of Durant's foremost running mates, Serge Ibaka and Russell Westbrook, will reach free agency.
Orlando Magic: Evan Fournier
22 of 30
Age: 23
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 14.7 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.3 steals, 45.4 percent shooting, 14.3 PER
Sending Tobias Harris to Detroit opened up additional cap space for the Orlando Magic—wiggle room that could, in theory, imply they're prepping to aggressively pitch Evan Fournier or match whatever other offers he susses out.
Here's the thing: The Magic aren't good enough to assume that stance. They dwell in the bottom five of offensive efficiency and fail to enter the top 15 of defensive efficiency. Doubling down on this nucleus is not a viable option—especially when it's so costly.
Fournier is one of four players averaging 14 points and 2.5 assists per game on 40 percent shooting from long range. His company? Stephen Curry, C.J. McCollum and Khris Middleton.
Netting more than our $12-million-per-year barometer, Kent Bazemore, is not out of the question for Fournier. He can thrive as a primary or secondary scorer and playmaker, and his defense won't seem so vulnerable on a team that doesn't have to compensate for shoddy rim protection. (Don't worry, Aaron Gordon. You're good.)
Before the Magic can really spend on Fournier, they need to consolidate their assets. Victor Oladipo will be extension-eligible this summer, and he, along with Mario Hezonja and Elfrid Payton, makes for too many offensive mouths to feed.
Failure to thin out this perimeter pecking order will only succeed in inviting Fournier's departure.
Philadelphia 76ers: Ish Smith
23 of 30
Age: 27
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 12.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 6.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 40.3 percent shooting, 14.9 PER
Trading for Ish Smith did not give the Philadelphia 76ers their point guard of the future. It gave them an offseason headache.
Smith joins John freaking Wall and Russell flipping Westbrook as the only three players capturing 15.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, eight assists and 1.5 steals per 36 minutes. That's nuts, no matter what world you live in, and it means Smith is speeding toward a drastic raise from his sub-$1 million salary.
Barren of any serious options at point guard—apologies to Isaiah Canaan, Kendall Marshall and T.J. McConnell—the Sixers should have no problem giving him one. But the dollars and cents matter. They matter a whole lot.
Philadelphia's offense is more than five points better per 100 possessions when Smith rides the pine. That can't happen for a starting point guard, irrespective of the team for which he plays. He is also shooting a combined 45.8 percent inside the paint and restricted area. Stephen Curry, by comparison, is shooting 45.4 percent...24-plus feet from the basket.
Another team that's better stocked with offensive weapons might be compelled to toss Smith a decent-sized deal given this summer's tepid point-guard market. (Sup, Brooklyn?) And that alone could be enough to pry Smith out of Philly.
Phoenix Suns: Mirza Teletovic
24 of 30
Age: 30
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 11.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.3 steals, 42.3 percent shooting, 15.9 PER
A 6'9" power forward who shoots over 40 percent from three-point land? And has the build to spend time at the 5 against post-up brutes? Without being totally destroyed?
Yes please.
Mirza Teletovic should be in high demand after refining his three-point touch and surviving spurts at center with the Phoenix Suns. To be clear, his general defense is just awful. He doesn't have the quickness to guard 3s and 4s who attack off the dribble, and his three-point prevention, with the exception of close-outs on standstill shooters, incites vomiting.
Still, sweet-shooting frontcourt specialists have a place in today's NBA. Teletovic's per-36-minute numbers bear a striking resemblance to Ryan Anderson's splits. He won't get new-salary-climate Anderson money, but he could nab old-salary-climate Anderson green.
And Phoenix, for its part, has no motivation to throw somewhere in the ballpark of $8 million per year to a 30-year-old marksman who doesn't move the defensive needle.
Portland Trail Blazers: Allen Crabbe
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Age: 23
Free-Agency Status: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 10.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 45.7 percent shooting, 12.1 PER
Anyone with Allen Crabbe's skill set—a la Kent Bazemore and Lance Thomas—is hitting the open market at the right time.
Crabbe has a ways to go before he personifies the "D" in three-and-D. But many of his defensive struggles can be traced back to the Portland Trail Blazers' scheme.
Head coach Terry Stotts has his perimeter troops hang back off the ball, leaving them particularly susceptible to opponents who can swish jumpers off the dribble and coming around screens. Crabbe can't lock down crafty ball-handlers just yet, and his reads on pick-and-rolls aren't great. But he has the chops to recover onto trailing shooters, and his defense against spot-up gunners is among the best in the league.
Portland doesn't have Crabbe doing much on offense aside from scoring off the catch. More than 80 percent of his made buckets come on assists, and close to 40 percent of all his field-goal attempts are catch-and-shoot looks. He converts more than 40 percent of those standalone opportunities and, thus, is a strong fit beside any ball-dominant partners.
This blend of strengths will cost Portland or another team a pretty penny. The Blazers have overachieved this season and could take that as a sign to ante up for Crabbe. They could also look to C.J. McCollum's restricted free agency next summer, remind themselves they're still in the early stages of a rebuild and set a spending limit that makes Crabbe obtainable for any team ready to exhaust deep pockets.
Sacramento Kings: Rajon Rondo
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Age: 30
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 11.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 11.7 assists, 1.9 steals, 45 percent shooting, 16.6 PER
Back in December, one Eastern Conference general manager explained to the Sporting News' Sean Deveney that Rajon Rondo could end up snagging a max or near-max deal in free agency—provided he kept notching gaudy stat lines.
Mission accomplished.
Four players over the last 30 years have eclipsed 11 points, 11 assists and 1.5 steals per game more than once: Magic Johnson, Chris Paul, John Stockton and, now, Rondo. Over-dribbling remains his Achilles' heel, but the Sacramento Kings' frenetically paced offense forces him to make quicker decisions.
Should Rondo indeed burst onto the max-contract scene, he instantly checks in as one of the biggest free-agent flight risks. Not even the Kings can favor handing a superstar deal to a starting point guard who makes a below-board offense even worse.
Right?
San Antonio Spurs: Boban Marjanovic
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Age: 27
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 5.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, 0.2 steals, 0.3 blocks, 60.9 percent shooting, 30.3 PER
Viral Vine sensation Boban Marjanovic is slated for one of the most enigmatic restricted free-agency explorations in the history of, well, restricted free agency.
You could easily see him staying in San Antonio without much fanfare. He is, after all, a human victory cigar at this stage of his career. This is his first NBA season, and he won't even log 500 total minutes.
But you could just as easily envision a quasi-bidding war in which multiple teams try pricing him out of San Antonio with offer sheets he cannot refuse and the Spurs cannot, in good conscience, match. Marjanovic has been that good in limited action, showing an impressive understanding of defensive rotations and stances, along with a jumper that allows him to sit just inside the three-point line.
And on top of that, there is so much more he has yet to properly showcase, as Mike Monroe detailed for Bleacher Report:
"What is most surprising about Marjanovic is his athleticism. He is no sprinter, but he runs the floor as well as many 7-footers. And he is fond of showing off his athleticism after team practices, as he did after a recent session when fellow Spurs rookie Jonathon Simmons lobbed a pass from the top of the key and Marjanovic ran from the opposite corner, caught the lob with both hands and flushed a dunk that shook the basket stanchion.
"
Facts are facts. And the fact is, however raw, however fleeting, this 7'3" rookie is the first player to ever average 20 points, 15 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes through at least 360 ticks of total burn. That's enough to turn his restricted free agency into an affair worth monitoring.
Toronto Raptors: Bismack Biyombo
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Age: 23
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted (player option)
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 5.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 0.2 steals, 1.7 blocks, 54 percent shooting, 14.6 PER
Expecting someone else, perhaps by the name of DeMar DeRozan? That's totally fine. But DeRozan is a max-contract lock, according to ESPN.com's Zach Lowe, and Toronto isn't a situation from which he'll want to bolt. If the Raptors offer him a max deal or slightly discounted pact that guarantees him a fifth year of financial security, there's no reason to think he won't pounce on it.
Bismack Biyombo is a different story. He has a player option for next season worth just over $2.9 million he'll assuredly decline so that he can negotiate a more lavish long-term deal.
His efforts this season have afforded him that luxury. He leads all of Toronto's everyday players in DBPM (sorry, Bruno Caboclo) and is providing just enough offense as a pick-and-roll diver to stay on the floor for long stretches—something he never truly mastered in Charlotte.
Modest per-game lines don't do Biyombo's season justice. His per-36-minute baselines of eight points, 13 rebounds and 2.5 blocks are being matched by one other player: Hassan Whiteside. Biyombo won't garner the max-contract consideration his statistical sib is in line for, but Mark Cuban some team will back up a miniature armored truck to acquire his services.
Toronto doesn't own Biyombo's Bird rights, so re-signing him will cost cap space. With DeRozan due for a raise and Jonas Valanciunas' extension set to kick in, Biyombo's next deal could be one the Raptors can't—or won't—bankroll.
Utah Jazz: No One
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Trevor Booker is not a free agent the Utah Jazz will fret about losing.
If there was ever a time when he was indispensable, it was before Trey Lyles. The Jazz are statistically better without Booker as it is and have more pressing needs elsewhere.
Like at point guard.
Dante Exum's return next season could convince the Jazz to once again stand pat as they gear up for an expensive 2017. Gordon Hayward has a player option for 2017-18, and Rudy Gobert will be due for a super-duper max deal.
Future expenses at other positions still cannot affect the Jazz's approach to bolstering their point guard rotation. Trey Burke and Raul Neto are not the answers, and Shelvin Mack won't be piloting a championship offense anytime soon.
Utah would do well to test the free-agent waters as the cap rises. Baiting Mike Conley with max money isn't necessary, but exploring the secondary market for someone to bridge that gap between now and Exum's prime has to be a priority.
Washington Wizards: Nene
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Age: 33
Free-Agency Status: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 8.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks, 52.9 percent shooting, 16.2 PER
Nene's first full season as a reserve in Washington has been weird.
Seldom recognized for his defense, he's taking advantage of facing second-unit talent. Opponents are shooting 5.4 percentage points worse than their season average when meeting him inside six feet of the basket, and he is pacing the Wizards in DBPM.
Playing with Washington's bench mob has meant extra touches on offense as well. His usage rate is hovering right around his career average, and he's shooting nearly 69 percent inside three feet of the hoop, which is where more than 47 percent of his field-goal attempts are coming from.
Nene can clearly still be of use as a reserve, even with a jumper that doesn't consistently extend outside 10 feet. But with the Wizards set to be major free-agency players, as their decision to wait on a new contract for Bradley Beal suggests, Nene finds himself on the outside looking in.
Washington already took on unanticipated salary in the Markieff Morris trade, and while Nene is due for a substantive pay cut from the $13 million he's bringing home now, his production and skill set no longer align with the Wizards' expeditious timeline.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and accurate leading into games on March 25. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
