Panthers vs. Saints: Full Carolina Game Preview
And then there was one.
The Carolina Panthers (11-0) are the last undefeated team in the NFL.
It took a little longer than usual—only twice in NFL history had two teams been 10-0 (2009 and 1990). Now, the Panthers can embrace the pejorative title that they had been given ever since Week 4 or so—they are, indeed, the worst undefeated team remaining, and proud of it.
All the other undefeated teams that the pundits had as better than Carolina have fallen, and the Panthers are the last ones standing—the worst, best and only undefeated squad.
It’s been more than a year since Carolina last lost in a regular-season game—to the Minnesota Vikings back on November 30, 2014. The first team they beat on their current 15-game winning streak? The New Orleans Saints (4-7), who host the Panthers this week.
The Panthers and Saints played previously in Week 3, with the Panthers coming out on top in a tight 27-22 decision. The Saints were without star quarterback Drew Brees, but backup Luke McCown had a 300-yard passing day—the most passing yards the Panthers have given up all season long. At home and now with Brees back behind center, the Saints have to think they can improve on that result.
However, the Saints come into this matchup in disarray. They have lost their last three games, have allowed more than 300 yards passing in four of their last five games and have allowed 100 or more yards rushing in each of their last three games.
They’ve fired defense coordinator Rob Ryan but still rank dead last in points allowed and yards per play and have yet to keep any team under 20 points this season. They have the worst defense in football, which has more or less knocked them out of playoff contention with five weeks remaining in the season.
The Panthers and Saints are going in very different directions. The Panthers are prepping for the playoffs, while the Saints are debating the feasibility of keeping Brees’ $30 million cap number, according to Over the Cap, on the roster next season.
That is reflected in the early Vegas odds. OddsShark lists the Panthers as touchdown favorites over the Saints, and the general consensus is that the Panthers should win in a walkover.
Never take a division game for granted, however.
The Saints had some solid performances against the Panthers earlier in the year, even beyond McCown’s 31-for-38 performance. Brandin Cooks caught seven passes for 79 yards, catching several passes against Josh Norman. The Saints protected their quarterback, with the Panthers recording no sacks. Cam Jordan hurried Cam Newton four times, according to Pro Football Focus, and Devlin Breaux knocked down a couple Newton passes.
The game wasn’t decided until the very end, with the Saints having the ball while down less than a touchdown at the end of the game. If a few bounces went a different way, maybe we’d be talking about the 10-1 Panthers at this point.
Divisional games are always tough, as familiarity breeds contempt. The Panthers are favored, and justifiably so, but this shouldn’t be considered a lock. The nine teams in football history to start a season 12-0 needed both skill and luck to achieve those results.
Can the Panthers join that extremely exclusive group, or will their undefeated season end in New Orleans? We’ll find out Sunday afternoon.
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: FOX, with Joe Buck and Troy Aikman on the call for the second time this year
Week 12 Results and Recap
1 of 6
The Panthers, surprise underdogs despite their undefeated record, romped all over the Dallas Cowboys on their Thanksgiving Day showcase. The Panthers defense recorded three interceptions, returning two of them for touchdowns and turning the other into a field goal, as they won comfortably, 33-14.
The offense cooled down after several weeks of record-breaking numbers, but Cam Newton ran in the only Carolina offensive score, the 40th rushing touchdown of his career. The Panthers controlled the clock and field position with a consistent rushing attack, topping 100 yards on the ground yet again, while Jerricho Cotchery made the clutch catches needed to extend drives when necessary.
On defense, Luke Kuechly had interceptions on back-to-back plays from scrimmage, Kurt Coleman returned another for a touchdown and the defense shut down the Cowboys offense nearly entirely. Tony Romo was held under 100 yards passing before re-breaking his collarbone at the end of the third quarter, completing only one pass longer than 10 yards down the field. They were held to just 31 yards rushing on the ground. Carolina stifled them to the point where they could barely move the ball.
The Saints got slightly better play from their defense against the Houston Texans, but it was their offense that surprisingly let them down. For the first time in a decade, the Saints failed to score an offensive touchdown in a 24-6 loss.
Drew Brees’ streak of consecutive games with a touchdown pass ended at 45, the fifth-longest streak in NFL history. Some of that had to do with J.J. Watt, who sacked him twice and had another in his grasp before Brees threw the ball away for intentional grounding. Defensively, they let Brian Hoyer throw for 205 yards and two touchdowns, while Alfred Blue and Company earned 167 yards on the ground to run their way to victory.
NFC South Standings
1. Carolina Panthers (11-0)
2. Atlanta Falcons (6-5)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)
4. New Orleans Saints (4-7)
The Panthers weren’t just helped out by the Saints' loss last week—all three of their divisional rivals dropped games. The Falcons fell to the Minnesota Vikings, 20-10, after Adrian Peterson ran for a couple touchdowns, while the Buccaneers lost to the Indianapolis Colts, 25-12, behind backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck.
The Panthers can clinch the division this week. The Buccaneers and Saints are already out of the picture, leaving just the Panthers and Falcons racing for the top slot. A Carolina win against New Orleans or an Atlanta loss to Tampa Bay would be enough to clinch the NFC South for the Panthers.
This has been a foregone conclusion for several weeks, and the Panthers still have two games against the Falcons to force them out of the picture themselves, but it’s a chance to put even the slimmest chance of missing the playoffs to bed.
NFC Playoff Picture
1. Carolina Panthers (11-0)
2. Arizona Cardinals (9-2)
3. Minnesota Vikings (8-3)
4. Washington Redskins (5-6) (ahead of NYG via divisional record)
5. Green Bay Packers (7-4)
6. Seattle Seahawks (6-5) (ahead of ATL via conference record)
If the Panthers fail to clinch the division this week, they can still earn a playoff spot via the wild-card route. A Minnesota win over Seattle would be enough to do it, as would wins by St. Louis over Arizona and Detroit over Green Bay. That’s four separate paths that would give the Panthers a playoff berth with four weeks to play.
We are, of course, mostly beyond the Panthers' trying to snatch a playoff spot; the circumstances required for them to miss are extraordinarily improbable. It's mostly a matter of whether the Panthers will get home-field advantage or just a bye week, though it’s still possible for them to finish anywhere in or out of the playoffs, with the exception of the fourth seed.
The Cardinals are the only team which has a particularly realistic chance of bumping the Panthers from the top spot in the conference, as they are down two games with just five to play. The Vikings, Packers, Seahawks and Falcons are the only other teams with mathematical shots at taking the top spot.
A Carolina win would knock Seattle out of the picture, while that plus a Green Bay loss would knock the Packers out of the question. Atlanta would also fall with a Carolina win, as it would obviously have to win the division before clinching home-field advantage.
As for a first-round bye, only five teams can no longer earn one in the NFC: the Buccaneers, Saints, Eagles, Cowboys and 49ers. Seattle, St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Washington, New York and Philadelphia could join them outside of the bye-week picture in Week 13, with none of that depending on Carolina’s results.
News and Notes
2 of 6
Carolina Panthers have Multiple Playoff-Clinching Scenarios
The Panthers failed to clinch a playoff berth last week when Seattle knocked off Pittsburgh in the late Sunday afternoon game. That’s not a major issue, though—the Panthers can clinch a playoff berth in one of four ways this week:
- Carolina d. New Orleans (would also clinch the NFC South and a top-three seed)
- Tampa Bay d. Atlanta (would also clinch the NFC South and a top-three seed)
- Minnesota d. Seattle
- St. Louis d. Arizona and Detroit d. Green Bay
According to OddsShark, it’s difficult to imagine the Panthers failing to clinch this week.
Carolina is a touchdown favorite over New Orleans.
Atlanta and Tampa Bay opened up even, but Tampa Bay has been made the favorite in quite a few sportsbooks. Matt Ryan has been struggling in recent weeks, while Tampa Bay is still at least fighting for a potential wild-card slot. It doesn’t help Atlanta that the game will take place in Tampa Bay, either.
Minnesota-Seattle also opened up at even and has mostly stayed there, with the game being held in Minnesota and not Seattle. The Seahawks are beginning to pick up a bit of their swagger from years past, but Minnesota’s a very strong 8-3 behind Adrian Peterson, who actually has more rushes than Teddy Bridgewater has completions.
Perhaps a bit surprisingly, St. Louis is only 5.5-point underdogs at home against Arizona, but the Cardinals did just struggle to put away the 49ers last week and have a depleted backfield, forced to go with third-round pick David Johnson as their starter. It’s better than cycling through quarterbacks like they did last season, but the Cardinals seem to always have injuries at one key position.
Detroit’s big win over Philadelphia on Thanksgiving has breathed unexpected life into a potential late wild-card playoff push, while the Packers couldn’t manage to top the Bears. The Packers opened as 5.5-point favorites, but most sportsbooks have pushed them down to just a field goal, considering the struggles they’ve had on offense.
The Panthers are unlikely to have all four scenarios go their way, but they only actually need one. The chances of the Panthers, Buccaneers and Vikings all losing is very low—about 5.4 percent, according to 538’s win probabilities. It might be more interesting to see which team clinches a playoff berth first.
The Panthers can clinch during the early Sunday games before they even take the field, as Detroit, St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Minnesota all could be winners before kickoff. Neither the Patriots nor Bengals can clinch that early—the Patriots need to win to clinch a berth this week, while all Bengals clinching scenarios include the Steelers beating the Colts on Sunday Night Football.
Ron Rivera: “Keep Your Personalities”
The Panthers have drawn some flak outside the organization for their on-field exuberance this year, be it Cam Newton’s dancing or Josh Norman’s acting like Batman or Maximus during games. That’s just the way Ron Rivera wants it, however.
According to ESPN's David Newton, Rivera has told his players to “keep your personality,” despite the brighter spotlight that comes from leading the NFL in wins.
"It's something I kind of picked up from being around Coach [Mike] Ditka," said Rivera. "He let us have our personality shine."
Rivera played for Ditka’s Chicago Bears from 1984-1992 and was a backup on the ’85 Super Bowl team. That’s the era of the "Super Bowl Shuffle," punky quarterback Jim McMahon’s public battles with NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle, and memorable characters like William “Refrigerator” Perry. None of those outsized characters proved to be much of a distraction in 1985 at least, as the Bears won 18 games, the Super Bowl and a place as arguably the greatest team of all time.
Rivera isn’t comparing the current Panthers squad to those Bears teams but said he’s taken the lessons learned from what Ditka allowed his players to do to heart:
"I'll use Josh Norman as an example. When Josh first got here, he was just as flamboyant as he [is now], and I think to a degree we tried to get him to fall in line too much. He lost that personality and the bravado as to who he is. There's a great saying: Respect your opponent, but believe in yourself. If you start worrying too much about that side of things and doing things completely the right way, you lose that little edge.
"
In a league that often gets a bit stodgy, with penalties on excessive celebration and the like, the Panthers have been a refreshing burst of fun on the field. The fact that they’re managing to win while still dancing around is just the icing on the cake.
Greg Olsen Nominated for NFL Man of the Year
Every team in the NFL nominates one player for NFL Man of the Year, which is given to a player who has a significantly positive impact off the field as well as on it. The Panthers have two former winners on the roster—2013 winner Charles Tillman and 2014 winner Thomas Davis—but have opted to nominate tight end Greg Olsen instead this year.
Olsen and his wife founded the HEARTest Yard Fund, which provides assistance for children with congenital heart disease. Olsen’s own son T.J. was born with heart troubles, inspiring Olsen to start providing assistance to families in similar situations.
Two years ago, Olsen successfully lobbied the North Carolina House of Representatives to pass a law requiring mandatory heart disease screening for newborns.
“It’s always easier to get behind things that have a close meaning to you in some capacity. Obviously, that was as close as it gets,” Olsen said, via the Charlotte Observer. “So it was a no-brainer for us to start doing something like that and support that hospital.”
Having three consecutive Man of the Year winners on the roster would be unprecedented; the last team to have back-to-back winners were the Kansas City Chiefs in 1972 and 1973. The three finalists for the award will be announced in January, with the winner being determined on February 6 during the NFL Honors awards show.
Injuries
3 of 6
With a 10-day layoff between their last game and Sunday’s matchup, the Panthers are well-rested and healthy coming into this week’s matchup. On the other hand, the Saints are banged up, with seven players not participating in practice on Wednesday.
Carolina Injuries
- WR Philly Brown (shoulder) was back at full practice after missing the last two weeks, so he looks good to go. He may not get his starting job back, however, as Ron Rivera has been mum as to who will start on Sunday, even with Brown’s return. Devin Funchess has taken steps forward in Brown’s absence and may retain the starting job.
- DT Star Lotulelei (ankle) and DT Dwan Edwards (ankle) were also both full participants in practice, and both should be ready to play this week. Lotulelei rolled his ankle against Dallas but seems fine, according to Newton.
- DE Kony Ealy (neck) was limited at practice with a stiff neck, according to the Charlotte Observer's Joe Person. This is a new injury, and the Panthers may just be playing cautiously. He’s been on a hot streak recently, and the Panthers would miss him if he missed time, but the return of Charles Johnson does somewhat alleviate the pressure to force him back if he’s not quite ready.
- DE Mario Addison (ankle) has a cast on his sprained right ankle, according to Person, which pretty much means he won’t be playing on Sunday. The hope is that he’ll be ready for the week after.
- CB Charles Tillman (knee) is still not practicing. On Tuesday, he said there is a “great possibility” that he would play against New Orleans, via Associated Press writer Steve Reed, but Ron Rivera reaffirms that there is “still concern” as to his availability. The Panthers signed Cortland Finnegan to the roster as a short-term replacement; Finnegan was a Pro Bowler back in 2008, but it’s been several years since the 31-year-old was a solid starter.
New Orleans Injuries
- RB Mark Ingram (shoulder) and LB Hau’oli Kikaha (ankle) were listed as full participants in practice and should be good to go for Sunday.
- LB David Hawthorne (thigh) was inactive last week and limited in practice on Wednesday but is working his way back into the lineup. He’d have to be considered questionable for this week’s game, but it wouldn’t be stunning to see him return. Michael Mauti and Ramon Humber have been playing in his absence.
- CB Damian Swann (concussion) is still in the concussion protocol. He suffered his initial concussion in Week 5, was cleared and then suffered another concussion in Week 8. It’s good to hear that he’s improving, as he returned to limited practice, but the rookie may need another week or two before being put back into the lineup, leaving Kyle Wilson as the slot corner.
- WR Marques Colston (not injury-related) received a veteran’s day off and will play on Sunday.
- WR Willie Snead (calf) is listed again on the injury report, but not with the knee injury he was treating to this point. As he played the entire Houston game, it’s unclear as to the severity of the injury, but he did not practice on Wednesday. If Snead misses the game, it might mean more snaps for Brandon Coleman.
- T Terron Armstead (knee) did not practice but has been missing most Wednesday practices as he recovers from a lingering injury. Rookie Andrus Peat is his replacement if necessary, but he should start on Sunday.
- G Jahri Evans (ankle) did not practice, though again, he finished Sunday’s game against Houston. If necessary, his replacement would be Mike McGlynn.
- DT John Jenkins (concussion) must have suffered a concussion late in the game on Sunday, as he was playing deep into the fourth quarter. Rookie Kaleb Eulls would be the most likely starter if Jenkins can’t get clearance to play by Sunday.
- LB Dannell Ellerbe (hip) remains sidelined after missing the past four games. He’s told the Times-Picayune's Katherine Turrell that he hopes to play his week and “rain on [the Panthers’] parade,” but his absence from practice isn’t helpful to his cause.
- S Jamarca Sanford (hip) missed practice as well and is another newcomer to the injury report.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Key Matchups
4 of 6
Panthers RT Mike Remmers vs. Saints DE Cameron Jordan
Cameron Jordan didn’t quite get his sack of Cam Newton the last time these two teams played, but he did put up four hurries and a couple defensive stops, according to Pro Football Focus, as well as receiving the highest grade on either team’s front seven at plus-3.8, mostly for his work in run defense.
He’s also the highest-graded 4-3 defensive end in football according to PFF, and his seven sacks leads the Saints.
The Saints didn’t sack Newton a single time in the Week 3 matchup but came closest in Jordan’s battle with Remmers. It wasn’t that Remmers played poorly, per se, but more that Jordan is an elite talent. For the Saints to flip the result from earlier this year, they’re going to have to bring Newton down once or twice, and Jordan’s the most likely man to do that.
Panthers C Ryan Kalil vs. Saints DT Kevin Williams
If John Jenkins does miss time with a concussion, Kevin Williams is going to have to be the anchor for the New Orleans run defense, which has allowed more than 100 yards in each of the last three weeks. It’s a poor matchup against the Panthers’ good running attack, as the Saints rushing defense has been bad all year long and hasn’t improved since Rob Ryan was fired.
The Panthers haven’t been held to less than 100 yards on the ground since Week 5 of 2014, and it doesn’t look like the Saints will break that streak. Ryan Kalil and the Panthers’ interior line should be able to win the battle at the line of scrimmage and carve out yardage for Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton.
Panthers CB Josh Norman vs. Saints QB Drew Brees
Adding a future Hall of Fame quarterback to a team that lost by less than a touchdown in the first matchup would seem to be a good recipe for success for the Saints. Remember, the Panthers couldn’t stop Luke McCown at all, allowing him to complete 31 of 38 passes for 310 yards in the Week 3 matchup. Imagine what Brees could do.
Of course, that looks like a one-game blip for the Panthers, but Brees is still a very tough opponent to draw. It was just four weeks ago that he tied the NFL record with seven touchdown passes in a game, and he’s averaging 332 yards through the air over the last four weeks with a QB rating of 103.2.
Against the Panthers, Brees has averaged 287 yards passing and 7.26 yards per attempt. Throw out a 2006 game in which Brees only attempted five passes, and his average jumps up to 302 yards per game, though he hasn’t passed the 300-yard mark in his last three games against Carolina.
Norman had a game-saving interception against New Orleans back in Week 3, but the 43 yards PFF charted him as allowing was his second-highest total all season long. He’ll look to improve those numbers this week against an aging legend.
X-Factors
5 of 6
Panthers X-Factor: DE Charles Johnson
Johnson played less than half of Carolina’s defensive snaps in his return to the field on Thanksgiving and was relatively quiet. He had one tackle on the first play from scrimmage but was otherwise mostly held in check.
However, left ends like Johnson have been having their way with Saints right tackle Zach Strief recently. J.J. Watt had two sacks and 11 total pressures last week, and Chris Baker had a sack and three pressures the week before, according to PFF. DaQuan Jones and Robert Ayers have also had productive days against the Saints in their last four games.
It’s certainly not all Strief’s fault—especially because three of those teams play a 3-4 defense, so their ends are also likely to be attacking New Orleans’ guards—but Strief has allowed 10 pressures in the past month. Now with some game action under his feet, Johnson might play a major role in crashing Drew Brees from the outside and wreaking havoc.
Saints X-Factor: RG Jahri Evans
Evans is a six-time Pro Bowler but is beginning to wind down at age 32. He’s still been fairly solid in pass protection but is beginning to lose momentum opening lanes for running backs. He’s no longer the All-Pro he was for so long.
He’ll mostly be facing off against Star Lotulelei this week, and it’ll be his job to try to pick up some of the slack from Max Unger and Andrus Peat as they try to establish a solid running game against the Panthers. The Panthers have held their last two opponents to a combined 46 rushing yards, but they did allow over 100 yards in four consecutive games in the middle of the season.
You’re looking for tiny cracks when you’re trying to upset an undefeated team.
Prediction: Panthers 34, Saints 17
6 of 6
For the fourth straight week, the Panthers get to play a team that has pretty much already been eliminated from contention in 2015. For the fourth straight week, they should have a fairly easy victory.
Yes, the Saints played the Panthers close back in Week 3, but that was a different Panthers team. It was the worst defensive performance of the season for Carolina, and since then, they’ve been lights-out. It was also the best offensive performance of the season for the Panthers, and New Orleans’ defense has only collapsed more since then.
New Orleans’ poor defensive play boosted the hopes of Tennessee and Washington just before each team played the Panthers, and the Panthers handled both with ease. They’ve been producing Offensive Player of the Week performances from their opponents all season long, and it's doubtful that firing their defensive coordinator will do very much over the long term. They had a one-week bounce against Houston, but Carolina has a better offense than Houston.
The Panthers are still more likely to lose a game somewhere than go 16-0, and you can see the argument for looking to a road divisional game as a likely target, but the Panthers are rested thanks to the Thursday game and on a roll. New Orleans’ offense has declined to just being above-average, which is no longer enough to make up for their terrible defense.
The win would normally clinch the division for the Panthers, but that should already have been taken care of when Tampa Bay beats Atlanta, 30-20, in the early Sunday games. If somehow the Buccaneers and Panthers both lose, Carolina will have to wait another week to punch their playoff ticket, as Seattle beats Minnesota, 24-21, and Arizona tops St. Louis, 26-21.
However, with so many paths and an easy matchup this week, the Panthers should be playoff-bound.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
