Redskins vs. Panthers: What's the Game Plan for Carolina?

Before the Carolina Panthers came into existence, the Carolinas were Washington Redskins country. It seemed to remain so for throughout the 1990s and into the early 2000s, as Washington won the first six meetings between the clubs.

Since then, however, Carolina has dominated its rivals to the north, winning four of the last five games and holding Washington to 20 points or less in every matchup. It’s been a good 15 years or so since Carolina had much to fear from Washington.

Sitting at 4-5, this year’s Washington team is still very much in the thick of the playoff race in the wild NFC East, with a win giving them a share of the division lead. The Redskins will be extra motivated to pick up their first back-to-back wins since October 2014, but the Panthers provide them with a tougher test than they’ve experienced so far.

What does Carolina have to do to keep its perfect season rolling? Let’s take a look at the game plan for this week.

Offensive Game Plan

Washington’s recent performance against the run gives a bit of a clue as to what Carolina might do on offense.

Opponent	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	Result
Atlanta	32	176	5.50	1	L, 19-25
NY Jets	41	221	5.39	2	L, 20-34
Tampa Bay	30	190	6.33	0	W, 31-30
New England	37	161	4.35	1	L, 10-27
New Orleans	25	158	6.32	0	W, 47-14

That’s five straight games where Washington has allowed over 150 yards on the ground, the longest streak by any NFL team since the Oakland Raiders did it in 2008. No team has allowed six such consecutive games since the 2004 Cleveland Browns, so the Panthers will be looking to help Washington perform a feat that hasn’t been done for a decade.

Part of the reason for Washington’s struggles has been the interior of its defense. Washington’s inside linebackers—Perry Riley, Keenan Robinson and Will Compton—have been subpar against the run this year. Robinson ranks only behind Kwon Alexander for most missed tackles by an inside linebacker, per Pro Football Focus, and Riley is dead last in run stop percentage.

This explains why Washington is second, only behind the Philadelphia Eagles, defending runs up the middle. The Redskins have allowed 4.88 yards per carry on those rushes over the course of the season, and that number balloons up to 5.46 yards per carry over the last five weeks. That’s less than ideal.

Admittedly, 70 of the rushing yards they allowed last week were on just one play. Without that one run, Washington would have held the New Orleans Saints to under 100 yards rushing. That could be chalked up to New Orleans rushing less, however, considering its defense was allowing Washington to score at will, requiring catch-up mode.

Weston Kenney/Associated Press

Carolina is really adept at running the ball. Jonathan Stewart has the seventh-most rushing yards in the league this year, even if he has the lowest yards per carry of any top-ten back. He’s been surprisingly durable this season and reliable, even if he hasn’t quite risen to the levels he was at toward the end of 2014.

It’s been Cam Newton, however, that’s been Carolina’s real weapon. He’s 32^nd in the league in rushing yards and an extraordinary threat. At 6’5” and 245 pounds, he’s actually slightly larger than Stewart, but both are huge backs you can’t really arm-tackle to the ground. Washington’s struggles with the basic fundamentals of tackling need to improve, or Carolina is going to have a field day running the ball.

Newton has been on fire the last two weeks. He’s completing 64.3 percent of his passes and averaging 9.18 yards per attempt. He’s thrown four touchdowns to just one interception and has added another couple scores on the ground. Add it all together, and he has a quarterback rating of 110.3. He’s flashing accuracy and decision-making that are significantly better than his career averages.

The Redskins haven’t done well against opposing passers recently, either. They’ve allowed two or more touchdown passes in each of their last four games, and their last four opponents all completed more than 65 percent of their passes against them. Over the course of the season, they’ve allowed 7.7 yards per completion, ninth-worst in the league.

This isn’t to say that Washington has no solid defenders—Chris Baker is a hassle on the defensive line, while Trent Murphy has begun to step up his work setting the edge in run defense. However, there are enough flaws that Carolina should be able to find open room to work and run right down Washington’s throat.

Defensive Game Plan

Washington’s biggest offensive weakness comes right in the middle of its line. First-round rookie Brandon Scherff is still getting his feet underneath him at the NFL level, and Spencer Long and Josh LeRibeus have not played up to par. Washington did just sign veteran Brian de la Puente, but it’s unclear whether he’ll be able to start on a week’s notice.

Alex Goodlett/Getty Images

The Redskins' tackles, on the other hand, have been very solid—Washington’s situation is really the inverse of Carolina’s. Trent Williams has been a very solid left tackle for years, but he might be being outplayed by second-year tackle Morgan Moses on the right side.

What this generally means is that Washington is good in absorbing the pass rush, and less solid in providing push for its backs to run. The team has allowed only 12 sacks, second-best in the league, so don’t expect the defensive ends to have a field day or anything. They give Kirk Cousins plenty of time to work in the backfield, so it will be important for Josh Norman and the Panthers secondary to take away DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon and the rest of Washington’s decently talented receiving corps.

The Redskins are only average in the running game, though, averaging 4.0 yards per carry. A lot of that comes from getting their backs into the open field; Football Outsiders has them ranked only 29^th in power situations with a success rate of 56 percent.  Carolina's Kawann Short, Luke Kuechly and the interior defense should win those battles more often than not; it’s when Alfred Morris gets out into open space that troubles begin.

For the second straight week, Washington faces off against a team riding high after getting an explosive offensive performance against the Saints. Washington put up 514 offensive yards last week, its best total since 1991, and 47 points, the best since 2005.

That success has not followed the Skins on the road, however. They’ve lost 17 of their last 18 road games, and their offense has not traveled with them on the road so far this season:

Split	Total YPG	Pass YPG	Rush YPG	Turnovers/Game	Points/Game
Home	401.6	255	146.6	1	27
Road	287.5	232	52.5	2.5	17.5

Nearly all teams suffer some level of reduced performance on road trips, but Washington has taken it to a new art form.

The squad is getting better in the passing attack thanks to the return of DeSean Jackson, their over-the-top threat. Their other two top receivers, Pierre Garcon and Jamison Crowder, do most of their work short and underneath. If Norman can’t handle Jackson one-on-one, thus requiring the Panthers to play deeper to prevent a big over-the-top play, that could produce room underneath for Garcon and Crowder to excel.

Considering the offense’s struggles away from home, the Panthers should have the advantage on defense in this one.

Key Players

Carolina QB Cam Newton

Last year, Russell Wilson was able to burn Washington’s defense for 122 yards on the ground. Apart from that, however, Washington has done a good job of keeping running quarterbacks in check, succeeding against the likes of Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill.

However, considering Washington’s recent lack of success stopping the running game at all, you have to like Newton’s odds for having a big day on the ground. With his powerful running style and ability to break through tackles—not to mention his suddenly improved accuracy throwing the ball—Newton could cause headaches all day for Washington.

Carolina WR Devin Funchess

It looks like Funchess will get the start for Philly Brown, who suffered a shoulder stinger in practice, per The Herald. Funchess is finally beginning to produce with two good weeks in a row. Against Green Bay, Funchess caught three passes for 71 yards, and he had two more grabs for 41 yards against Tennessee.

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

Those represent the best two days of Funchess’ short NFL career, so he’s on a hot streak. With a potential start coming his way, he should have even more opportunity to produce. It’s a chance to prove that he was worth a second-round pick in this year’s draft.

Washington LT Trent Williams

Trent Williams is the best player Washington has at the moment, and he’s done a very good job of keeping Kirk Cousins upright this season. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s allowed no sacks and just 10 total pressures this season. That’s good, because Cousins’ passer rating drops from 108.9 to 54.9 when opposing teams successfully pressure him.

Williams will be matched up against another savvy veteran in Jared Allen, and it’s one of the few areas in which Washington has a notable advantage over Carolina. If Williams loses this battle, Washington’s odds of winning will be drastically lowered.

Carolina DT Kawann Short

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

As previously mentioned, the interior line of Washington is its weak point. Kawann Short versus the likes of Josh LeRibeus and Spencer Long is a massive advantage for Carolina, and he should be able to take apart Washington at the point of attack.

As October’s NFC Defensive Player of the Month, Short has really joined the NFL’s elite at his position in his third NFL season, performing well in both the pass rush and on run defense. Teams have not had an answer for him all season long, and it does not look like Washington will be the first one to solve him.

Washington LB Keenan Robinson/Will Compton

Chris Keane/Associated Press

Keenan Robinson is Pro Football Focus’ lowest-rated inside linebacker this season, primarily due to his poor performance on run defense. He’s also questionable to return this week from a hamstring injury.

He did practice on Wednesday, but there’s a chance he will continue to be replaced by Compton in this game. Whoever starts has to clamp down on run defense, especially with both Newton and Jonathan Stewart potentially barreling their way. If they allow a sixth-consecutive 150-yard day from an opponent—something very likely thanks to Carolina’s success on the ground—they’ll be in real trouble.

Prediction

The Redskins aren't a bad team, but they’re not a particularly good team, either. They’re an average team with the unfortunate problem that their biggest weakness is Carolina’s biggest strength. Carolina is built to punish teams with a powerful ground game, and then clamp down on the passing attack as the other team tries to catch up. Washington has not been able to stop anyone on the ground, and its best deep threat has been hurt most of the season. It’s not a good fit for them.

They’re also riding a horrible streak of road losses, as well as recent troubles dealing with the Panthers themselves. Beating the Panthers this week would require overcoming pretty much every trend Washington has going for them.

The Redskins are a model of inconsistency going up against the most consistent team in football.  Carolina’s 13-game winning streak is the NFC is the third-longest since the 1970 merger, behind Joe Montana’s ’89-’90 49ers and Aaron Rodgers' ’10-’11 Packers. They’ve scored 20 or more points in every game this season and in 10-straight games when you include last year. They’re firing on all cylinders.

This shouldn’t be a laugher, and Carolina shouldn’t just roll to victory, but all signs point to it being another comfortable win for the Panthers, extending their undefeated season for another week.

Carolina 34, Washington 15

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.