Cowboys vs. Dolphins: Full Miami Game Preview
With the Miami Dolphins at 4-5, we've entered the part of the season where they practically play a playoff game every week.
This week's game against the 2-7 Dallas Cowboys is no different. A win puts Miami back at .500, and with a few teams losing, back into the possibility of a playoff spot.
On the other end, a loss drops Miami to 4-6, with its playoff hopes on life support.
Miami's opponent Dallas is also playing for its playoff life. With Tony Romo coming back for the first time since Week 2, the Cowboys have to effectively win out for any chance for a second consecutive NFC East crown. In fact, the Dolphins are partially responsible for breathing new life into the Cowboys' playoff hopes—thanks to last week's victory over the Philadelphia Eagles.
The two teams haven't faced off since Thanksgiving 2011, and Miami hasn't beaten Dallas since Thanksgiving 2003. The Dolphins hope to have a happy Thanksgiving of 2015 with a win the Sunday before.
Location: Sun Life Stadium; Miami Gardens, Florida
Time: 1 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Week 10 Results and Recap
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The Miami Dolphins had no business beating the Philadelphia Eagles.
This was the sentiment before the game, as the Eagles had one of the top running attacks in the league, while the Dolphins had the 31st-ranked run defense in the league.
This was the sentiment when the Eagles went up 16-3 in the first half, as poor run defense, an inability to cover the tight end and more offensive miscues buried the Dolphins in a three-score deficit early.
This was even the sentiment once the Dolphins outscored the Eagles 17-3 in the second half, when fans were waiting for the eventual defensive miscue, that eventual Ryan Tannehill mistake, that eventual series of bad play-calling.
The defensive miscues came, but they were cleaned up by a Reshad Jones interception. Even as he saved the game, he nearly doomed it by running it out of the end zone before being pushed out of bounds at the Dolphins' own 4-yard line.
The Tannehill mistake didn't occur, as he got a couple of first downs after that play, but the poor play-calling doomed the Dolphins to giving the Eagles the ball back. Luckily, they did it on a punt, making the Eagles travel farther.
Travel they tried, but they couldn't. You can blame Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez for that, as he botched a potential game-winning drive with some bad passes.
Miami escaped with the game, but unlike its escape act in Week 1 against Washington, this one felt more like a victory. It kept a season alive, and it kept hope alive. The offense actually performed well, and the defense, which was short-handed, came through when it mattered most.
AFC East Standings
New England Patriots (9-0)
Buffalo Bills (5-4)
New York Jets (5-4)
Miami Dolphins (4-5)
News and Notes
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Mike Pouncey Questions Repeated Release and Re-Signing of Sam Brenner
The Miami Dolphins have released and re-signed center Sam Brenner multiple times this season, but they likely won't get the chance to re-sign him again, as the Denver Broncos signed him after his latest release this week, per Andrew Abramson of the Palm Beach Post.
One person not happy with this yo-yo treatment of Brenner was center Mike Pouncey.
According to Abramson, Pouncey had hoped the Dolphins would re-sign Brenner, but then he questioned the way he has bounced between the 53-man roster and the practice squad throughout the year:
"It’s tough. It’s just how the league works sometimes. I don’t feel like it’s fair all the time because he’s definitely a guy deserving of a spot on this football team.
We really enjoy having him inside of our offensive line room. He’s been a valuable piece to our offensive line unit for the past few years. It sucks, man, especially when you’re friends with a guy.
To see guys get done that way, it’s tough. I know he understands it and so do we.
"
Brenner was released in order to make room for linebacker James-Michael Johnson, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. That itself is a necessary signing, as the Dolphins are struggling with linebacker depth.
Unfortunately, it only contributes to the lack of offensive line depth, as Brenner was the only true center backing up Pouncey.
Lamar Miller Still Miami's Starting Running Back
In two games, rookie Jay Ajayi has been a tremendous addition to the Dolphins offense.
This comes thanks to Ajayi's 8.1 yards-per-carry average, as he has run for 89 yards on only 11 attempts in two games.
Despite this high average, Lamar Miller isn't going anywhere, per Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald, as head coach Dan Campbell has stated that Miller "is still the starter for us."
This makes sense, as Miller has more experience in the offense and has so far been a better pass-blocker. However, this shouldn't preclude the Dolphins from giving Ajayi more carries.
If Miami can run the ball at least 30 times a game, it should be successful. Splitting those carries between Miller and Ajayi makes sense, either by going with a 50-50 split or a 60-40 split toward Miller.
Either way, the Dolphins have a new offensive weapon to work with, and they should use him well in the final seven games of the season.
WR-Turned-CB Tony Lippett Ahead of Schedule
One of the most intriguing players from Miami's 2015 NFL draft was Michigan State's Tony Lippett, who played both receiver and corner in college but was transitioning to corner in the NFL.
At the same time, I didn't expect Lippett to get any significant snaps in 2015, yet he played 23 percent of Miami's defensive snaps against the Eagles thanks to an injury-riddled secondary that was missing Brent Grimes and Brice McCain.
The fact that the Dolphins trusted Lippett ahead of veteran Zack Bowman late in the game shows how much progress Lippett has made, per Andrew Abramson of the Palm Beach Post, and as Lippett himself would explain, it shows how far he has come:
"I feel like I’m coming along better than some people anticipated.
When I first got here I was real raw and not experienced at the position. But now I’m starting to learn the ins and outs of playing corner and just learning different techniques and how to leverage the ball, leverage the defender and things like that.
"
Lippett only had one tackle on Sunday, but that tackle came on the only catch he allowed. In his limited snaps, the quarterback rating against Lippett is 77.1, per Pro Football Focus.
Grimes and McCain will be back against Dallas, meaning Lippett won't see the field barring more catastrophic injuries. But don't sleep on him, especially going into next year after he has a full offseason with the Dolphins. He could surprise you in 2016 training camp, but based off of what has happened so far, it shouldn't be too big of a surprise.
Injury Report
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Jelani Jenkins
The Dolphins were put into a pickle last Sunday when Jelani Jenkins departed with a left ankle injury in the second quarter.
That injury still hasn't healed. Per Chris Perkins of the Sun Sentinel, Jenkins came in on Wednesday in a walking boot and didn't practice.
It gets worse for Miami's linebackers.
Koa Misi
Koa Misi did finish the game on Sunday, but on Wednesday, he also didn't practice, per Perkins. According to the Miami Dolphins' injury report, he's listed with an abdominal injury.
Misi and Jenkins have been Miami's top two linebackers in 2015, and the unit struggled without Jenkins last week despite good performances from Neville Hewitt and Zach Vigil. If neither Misi nor Jenkins can suit up on Sunday, Hewitt and Vigil are the likely replacements, as well as Chris McCain, whom Perkins reported practiced with the linebackers.
Against Dallas, these are big losses, especially when going against Jason Witten. Miami has struggled with tight ends all season long, and these injuries only make it worse.
The rest of Miami's injuries can be seen on the Dolphins' injury report. One name not on the report worth noting is wide receiver DeVante Parker.
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Key Matchups
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Cowboys WR Dez Bryant vs. Dolphins CB Brent Grimes
Grimes will be back on Sunday and has a big assignment with Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant.
I should add that this is Bryant with Tony Romo throwing him the football—an even scarier proposition than cornerbacks have had to deal with the last few weeks.
With Romo as his quarterback this season, Bryant has five catches for 48 yards. The stats would be a lot gaudier had Bryant been able to finish that game in Week 1 against the New York Giants, but a foot injury knocked him out.
Bryant would come back in Week 8 against Seattle, but his true comeback game came against the Philadelphia Eagles, where he caught five passes for 104 yards and a touchdown.
Bryant has the size advantage over Grimes, meaning Grimes will have to use his speed and athleticism in order to win the matchup. He did a decent job of this last season against a similarly built wideout in Calvin Johnson, but Grimes has shown some signs of slippage this season and will be tested even more this week.
Cowboys TE Jason Witten vs. Dolphins S Reshad Jones
A true battle of potential Pro Bowlers awaits, assuming Miami can get this correct.
Reshad Jones should be the man covering Jason Witten. Miami's linebackers can't be trusted against tight ends, as evidenced by the whole season, and they could be without the one linebacker who stands a chance in Jenkins.
Witten has turned in a fine 2015 despite not having Romo as his quarterback for most of the year, leading the team with 49 catches for 445 yards and two touchdowns. With this being Romo's first game back, expect Witten to get a lot of targets as Romo gets into the flow of the offense again and shakes off some of the rust.
Cowboys DE Greg Hardy vs. Dolphins LT Branden Albert
Branden Albert has struggled this season and has not been himself. His assignment for this week is perhaps his toughest, taking on the controversial Greg Hardy.
While the Cowboys have struggled since Hardy joined the team following a four-game suspension, he has made a big impact with four sacks, a forced fumble, a pass deflection and an interception.
Be extra careful with Hardy if the Dolphins find themselves backed up near their own end zone. Hardy has two safeties in his career, and the Dolphins have allowed a safety in three consecutive games. If they're backed up, it could be a matter of when, not if, Hardy records a safety, helping the Dolphins set a rather dubious NFL record.
X-Factors
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Dolphins X-factor: DE/LB Chris McCain
Chris McCain had arguably the biggest play in the Eagles game, as his sack and forced fumble on Sam Bradford wound up hurting Bradford's shoulder while giving him a concussion, forcing him out of the game and allowing Mark Sanchez to "Sanchize" the Eagles' chances of victory.
While no one would advocate causing injury, McCain's ability to get pressure on Romo will be a major component to Miami's game. Romo could be jittery seeing his first live NFL action since Week 2, and with McCain playing either defensive end or linebacker (depending on the situation), it could be enough to force Romo to make mistakes.
Cowboys X-factor: RB Darren McFadden
Dallas will have to rely on the run early in order to get the offense going, and the Cowboys will rely upon Darren McFadden to get that going.
Miami's run defense still ranks 31st against the run, and the Cowboys offensive line remains stout. McFadden had a hard time finding running lanes last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their 12th-ranked run defense, but the Dolphins' run defense should be less of a challenge.
Prediction: Cowboys 22, Dolphins 20
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Expect this game to be a lot closer than you'd think.
Dallas' offense should easily roll against Miami's defense, but factor in the rust factor with Romo, and it might not seem as easy.
Dallas' defense is better than its record indicates, and it can't really be blamed for most of the team's losses. Despite that, the Cowboys defense does allow plenty of points (23.8 per game) and is prone to lapses and mistakes.
You can run against the Cowboys defense, too, as it's allowed 977 yards on the ground and 10 rushing touchdowns, which is 30th in the league.
The Cowboys should pull off a close do-or-die game between two teams fighting for their lives, but it will be a close one decided by who gets the ball last.
Prediction: Cowboys 22, Dolphins 20
Statistics provided by NFL.com, and advanced statistics provided by Pro Football Focus.
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