NBA Championship Odds 2015-16: Every Team's Chances of Winning the Title
Meaningful NBA action is back, and piping-hot championship odds are included at no extra charge.
We'll start things off with a spoiler: Your team isn't favored to close out the 2015-16 season title*.
Still, some outfit is going to win the championship, and it could be the one you root for the most. Or maybe not. It all depends on where it stands relative to everyone else.
Rather than subjectively generate these standings, we'll use a cumulative score to determine any one team's title chances. To do this, we'll take the odds listed by nine different providers over at Odds Shark, mash them together and roll with the average.
From there, using last season, the offseason and the preseason as our benchmarks, we'll devote our pretty little heads to discussing the accuracy of those odds, in addition to why every team is or isn't a true championship contender.
Let's party.
*There's no need to fret, because this is true of every other team. No one squad is favored over the entire field.
Philadelphia 76ers: 306-1
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Miracles aren't issued in enough excess, or size, for the Philadelphia 76ers to have chance at nabbing a playoff berth, much less entry into the championship conversation.
Trusting general manager Sam Hinkie's process has become a trying endeavor for those both inside and outside Philadelphia. The Sixers have talent to evaluate in Nerlens Noel (legit defensive anchor) and Jahlil Okafor (Rookie of the Year candidate), but much of their future appeal is intangible.
Dario Saric is still playing overseas; Joel Embiid won't make his NBA debut until 2016-17 at the earliest. The point guard situation remains in flux after Hinkie shipped out Michael Carter-Williams ahead of February's trade deadline. And there's no guarantee the top-three protected pick that the Los Angeles Lakers owe Philly next summer turns into anyone special.
Two seasons of deliberately non-competitive basketball should buy something other than more of the same. And yet, here the Sixers sit, in position to be one of the worst teams, if the not the absolute worst, in the league for a third consecutive year.
Orlando Magic: 267-1
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If you're thinking the Orlando Magic are being undervalued, you're not alone.
Elfrid Payton is already a defensive pest and pre-eminent playmaker. Victor Oladipo is on the verge of forcing himself into the All-Star ranks. Nikola Vucevic should have already been an All-Star. Tobias Harris has successfully learned to play off the ball, rendering him a dual-offensive threat. Aaron Gordon can jump higher than Earth's atmosphere allows, and Mario Hezonja's shot creation, along with his transition bravado, leaves him as one of the greatest boom-or-bust rookie prospects in recent memory.
Few rebuilding teams boast the same quality and quantity of young cornerstones (Utah Jazz fans say "What up?"). The Magic, as presently constructed, do have enough to make an Eastern Conference playoff push soon.
But, in the end, they are still rebuilding, and the East's middle class has widened. From mainstays such as the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks to the much-improved Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks, the race for one of the conference's final playoff spots will be brutal.
Even if the Magic's preseason defensive integrity holds firm throughout the regular season—they allowed just 95.9 points per 100 possession in exhibition play, which would have been by far and away the best mark of any team in 2014-15—they remain a work in progress.
For now, with not one of their projected starters older than 25, the Magic will have to settle for steps in the right direction rather than contender-level recognition.
Charlotte Hornets: 255-1
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Any hope the Charlotte Hornets had of establishing themselves as that surprise championship dark horse disappeared with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who only recently began a six-month rehabilitation process after undergoing shoulder surgery, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski.
Though the Hornets are running a more contemporary offense these days—they exponentially increased their three-point volume and efficiency during the preseason—they don't have the secondary tools to replace one of the NBA's most prolific perimeter defenders. (Nicolas Batum, you have my sincerest apologies.)
When Kidd-Gilchrist was on the floor last season, Charlotte performed like a playoff team, outscoring opponents by 3.1 points per 100 possessions. When he stepped off, the Hornets were a minus-7.7—Los(t) Angeles Lakers-level bad.
Unless Jeremy Lin continues to shoot 45-plus percent from deep, Kemba Walker proves he can shoot from deep at all and Batum has the best defensive season of his career, Charlotte will be lucky to even sniff the East's playoff bubble.
Denver Nuggets: 218-1
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The Denver Nuggets' championship odds are surprisingly low. But it's difficult to put much faith in a squad that's reinventing itself while trying to keep pace with an unforgiving Western Conference.
Emmanuel Mudiay is only a rookie, even if the way he attacks the rim and works the corners on kick-outs suggests otherwise. Kenneth Faried is the West's Tristan Thompson—sans the random lockdown defense and benefit of playing beside LeBron James.
Nikola Jokic, Joffrey Lauvergne and Jusuf Nurkic are all promising frontcourt prospects, but they have less than 1,500 minutes of NBA experience between them. Denver has no clear shooting guard of the future, just two maybes in Will Barton and Gary Harris.
Not even the latest head coach, Mike Malone, is a known commodity, despite his work as an assistant and brie but promising stint with the Sacramento Kings. He is a defensive architect and half-court advocate guiding a team that's built to run and struggle defensively. Chemistry is not a given.
There are a ton of things to like about Denver, but there are also limits—strict ones—to how high a team that calls Danilo Gallinari its best player can climb.
Brooklyn Nets: 194-1
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Surprised? Of course you are. The Brooklyn Nets shouldn't even be this high. There's a real chance they end up being almost as bad as—all right, I won't say it; I shouldn't say it; actually, I'm going to say it—Hinkie's Sixers.
Jarrett Jack, Joe Johnson, Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young are now the heart and soul of Brooklyn's core. And while they each have their individual bright spots, they don't form anything special when placed together.
In the time those four spent on the floor with one another last season, the Nets were an offensive disaster. Lopez only seems to be healthy every other year, and Young remains a frontcourt tweener with the athleticism of a 3 and the range of an outdated 4. Johnson is 34 years old and a half-decade removed from headlining an above-average offense, while Jack will lead the team in inexplicable decisions on both ends of the floor.
Pleasant reinforcements won't be found outside Brooklyn's Not-so-Fab Four, either. Bojan Bogdanovic and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson deserve extensive looks, but they're not saviors. Thomas Robinson is Thaddeus Young without any ball control or footwork. Shane Larkin is neither a proven playmaker nor shooter.
Andrea Bargnani is actually on this roster.
Need we say more?
Sacramento Kings: 183-1
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This version of the Sacramento Kings might be equipped to end the franchise's nine-year playoff drought.
Might be.
Sacramento was a net plus with DeMarcus Cousins in the game last season, and there is nothing if not more talent around him now, even if all the pieces do not fit perfectly.
Rajon Rondo isn't an All-Star anymore, but he and Darren Collison make for an intriguing combination at point guard. Marco Belinelli is an immediate upgrade over Nik Stauskas. Kosta Koufos and Willie Cauley-Stein add defense and depth to a frontcourt that lacked both. Caron Butler, Omri Casspi and Seth Curry are better floor-spacing reserves than anyone the Kings previously employed.
Still, at least six of the West's eight playoff slots are spoken for—seven if you assume, and rightfully so, that Anthony Davis will carry the New Orleans Pelicans back to the playoffs. Sacramento must duke it out with the Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz for that eighth and final slot.
Simply sneaking to the postseason will be an uphill battle, one the Kings, in all likelihood, aren't fit to fight. And even then, if they defy the odds to earn a playoff berth, they would do so as first-round fodder, not genuine contenders.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 181-1
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Although the Minnesota Timberwolves aren't flush with proven performers, they still have a truckload of talent.
Andrew Wiggins is a future All-Star. Karl-Anthony Towns has the makings of a shot-blocking stretch 5. Nemanja Bjelica is already a stretch 4 and has the 45.8 percent three-point preseason clip to prove it. Shabazz Muhammad can be an on- and off-ball scoring machine. Zach LaVine's motto is still "Just say no...to gravity."
Gorgui Dieng is shooting threes (more often) now. Kevin Garnett is still mentoring through stern looks and cacophonous barks. Kevin Martin's scoring abilities aren't going anywhere. Andre Miller and Tayshaun Prince are coaches in uniform. Nikola Pekovic will every so often have an offensive outing that makes you forget he has no place on this roster. Ricky Rubio's know-all, see-all offensive instincts will help tie everything and everyone together.
That talent surplus, inexperienced or otherwise, will pad the Timberwolves' win column with more than the 16 victories they secured last season. They might even forge a defensive identity on the back of Towns and the sweat of Garnett along the way.
Nevertheless, they aren't built for contending. They remain in the early stages of their latest rebuild and, while clearly headed in the right direction, aren't yet close to dipping their feet in championship waters.
Detroit Pistons: 153-1
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Kudos to Detroit Pistons coach and president Stan Van Gundy for replicating his late-2000s Magic teams to the best of his ability.
Andre Drummond is a high-flying monstrosity who already draws double-teams in the post, despite his deficient and clumsy back-to the-basket game. Plug him beside Reggie Jackson, and there is no limit to Detroit's pick-and-roll potential.
Especially with Ersan Ilyasova, rookie Stanley Johnson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope orbiting around them behind the three-point line.
Aron Baynes, Steve Blake, Reggie Bullock, Brandon Jennings (still recovering from an Achilles injury), Jodie Meeks, Marcus Morris and Anthony Tolliver polish off a cast that is much deeper and far more versatile on the offensive end than in years past.
But while this should be enough to put the Pistons in play for their first postseason appearance since 2009, their ceiling stops there. The East is wide-open, but not so much that there's room for a fringe playoff candidate to be mistaken for something more.
New York Knicks: 148-1
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Professing faith in the Knicks is the Association's newest fad.
"This is a team that I don't think is a long shot to make the playoffs," ESPN NBA analyst Mark Jackson said, per the New York Daily News' Stefan Bondy. "I see them with the added talent and depth, when you look all throughout the roster, they have improved and they certainly are more than capable of getting into the playoffs and fighting for one of those spots toward the end of the season."
“The Knicks are one of my sleeper teams,” TNT analyst Charles Barkley told reporters on a conference call, according to Bondy. “I think Phil Jackson’s done a good job getting quality NBA players. ... I’m picking the Knicks to make the playoffs. I’m guaranteeing it!”
Such optimism on the heels of New York's 17-win implosion last season is surprising. But that doesn't make it unwarranted.
The Knicks added a bunch of talent over the offseason in Arron Afflalo, Jerian Grant, Robin Lopez, Kyle O'Quinn and Kristaps Porzingis, among others. They ranked fourth in preseason defensive efficiency. They have a healthy Carmelo Anthony.
Things are looking up in New York, and if the Knicks' rise continues, specifically on the defensive end, an unexpected playoff berth is not out of the question. Winning a championship, however, was ruled out a long time ago.
Portland Trail Blazers: 133-1
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At least one oddsmaker must have forgotten that the Portland Trail Blazers lost four of their five starters between last season and now. That, or head coach Terry Stotts has figured out how to clone Damian Lillard.
There is no way the Blazers should have better odds than nine other teams. They stripped down a contender in favor of a thorough rebuilding project—the kind that will lose, not win, 50 games.
Lillard is the only one of Portland's projected 10 best players to have ranked in the top 50 of minutes played last season. Al-Farouq Aminu, Ed Davis, Maurice Harkless, Meyers Leonard, C.J. McCollum, Mason Plumlee and Noah Vonleh make for a nice foundation of maybes, but none of them has ever been an every-day contributor for a good NBA team.
Retaining Lillard, an All-Star only just entering his prime, does brighten the Blazers' immediate outlook to a degree. Leonard is a 7-footer with 50/40/90 potential, and McCollum should parlay his extra playing time into Most Improved Player consideration. Portland is not Philadelphia.
It's just not a blip on the championship radar, either.
Phoenix Suns: 121-1
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Eric Bledsoe, understated star and unofficial face of the Suns, is a funny guy.
“We’re definitely trying to make a run at a playoff spot," he previously told Shane Dale of ABC 15 in Arizona. "We’re not trying to get the last spot, either. We’re trying to get a high spot."
Aiming for a "high spot" implies the Suns are gunning for a top-four playoff seed. But any postseason berth would be both a surprise and the result of a seventh- or eighth-place finish.
Phoenix did enough over the offseason to continue toeing that line between rebuilding and competing—signing Tyson Chandler and retaining Brandon Knight—but it is by no means an elite group. The West can house eight contenders on any given week, and a good portion of the Suns' livelihood depends upon production from relative unknowns (Alex Len, T.J. Warren) and patented wild cards (Mirza Teletovic, P.J. Tucker).
Toss in their failure to establish a trademarked identity last season, when they finished no better than 14th in offensive and defensive efficiency, and it becomes painfully clear that the Suns' ambitions exceed their means.
Utah Jazz: 114-1
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Maybe it's too early to start mentioning the Jazz in the same breath as other title contenders.
Just three of Utah's players are over the age of 25, and none of them is a starter. Alec Burks only recently returned from a left shoulder injury that limited him to 27 appearances last season, and Dante Exum will miss all of 2015-16 after suffering a torn ACL in his left knee.
Also, there is The Western Conference caveat. The Jazz will be battling for wins amid a surfeit of contenders, and their playoff promise was borne from a post-trade deadline leap that spanned only 29 games.
Then again, those were an impressive 29 games. Utah paced the league in defensive efficiency, allowing just 94.8 points per 100 possessions, and maintained a similar rating through seven preseason contests (96.9). That stingy defense isn't going anywhere, not with Rudy Gobert swallowing shots whole at the rim.
On top of that, the Jazz have a statistically elite foundation to which Burks should be added. They outperformed opponents by 6.1 points per 100 possessions when trotting out Derrick Favors, Gobert, Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood last season—a point differential that would have ranked fourth in league.
Of course, making the playoffs is different from winning titles. And though the Jazz should receive an invitation to the West's spring dance, they'll likely do so as a bottom-two seed, looking up at a world's worth of more championship-ready factions.
Los Angeles Lakers: 99-1
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Oh.
In no uncertain terms should the Lakers have better championship odds than the Jazz or the Suns or the Pistons or the—well, you get the point. But, on average, they do. And they remain a popular betting play among gamblers.
More money has been wagered on the Lakers to grab this season's Larry O'Brien Trophy than on the reigning Eastern Conference champion, LeBron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers, according to ESPN.com's David Purdham.
That makes no sense.
Long shots tend to draw more attention because the payouts are bigger. But there's a difference between hoping for a lucrative payday and setting your money on fire. Betting on the Lakers to win a title in 2016, regardless of motive or amount, falls under the latter.
Kobe Bryant is the ghost of the shell of his former self and will be asked to share a ball with Jordan Clarkson, D'Angelo Russell, Lou Williams and Nick Young. Brandon Bass will take minutes away from Julius Randle.
Aside from successfully acting as an occasional deterrent at the rim, Roy Hibbert is a mystery. Metta World Peace is, for some season, on the roster despite being almost two years removed from NBA action and unfit to play the small forward position.
Improving upon last season's 21-win eyesore is not out of the question. The Lakers do have noticeably more talent. They just don't have a puncher's chance in a frozen-over hell of winning a championship anytime soon.
Boston Celtics: 85-1
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Superior depth will keep the Boston Celtics at the forefront of the East's postseason discussion.
A success-by-committee model carried them to 40 victories and unanticipated playoff participation last season, and they have since doubled down on that roster structure.
Team president Danny Ainge added Amir Johnson and David Lee over the summer while also reinvesting in Jae Crowder and Jonas Jerebko. That's in addition to still employing Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger, Evan Turner and Tyler Zeller, mind you.
This logjam jubilee doesn't becomes any less congested in the backcourt. The pecking order is more discernible, with Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart the clear starters and Isaiah Thomas the unquestioned sixth man. But R.J. Hunter, Terry Rozier and James Young will scrap for minutes, too.
Relative to championship chances, this is the Celtics' problem in a vacuum: too many odds and ends, not enough star power.
Dallas Mavericks: 60-1
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If everything breaks right for the Mavericks, they could be surprisingly dangerous.
If the 29-year-old Wesley Matthews makes a full recovery from his ruptured Achilles, they'll have one of the league's pre-eminent two-way players. If the 37-year-old Dirk Nowitzki plays like a 27-year-old Dirk Nowitzki, their offense will be on easy street.
If Chandler Parsons busts through his glass ceiling and remains healthy, Dallas will remember why it handed him $46 million. If Deron Williams can stay totally and completely healthy for the first time since wearing a Jazz uniform, the team would solve its point guard problems.
If John Jenkins can forever party like it's the preseason, the bench has a shot at respectability. If JaVale McGee and Zaza Pachulia merge into one being, Dallas will have a whole center.
If, if, if. That word will define not just the Mavericks' playoff chances but their ability to remain relevant at all.
Unfortunately for them, actual championship contenders aren't assembled around a collection of ifs.
Milwaukee Bucks: 59-1
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Adding Greg Monroe and re-signing Khris Middleton solidified the Bucks' standing as Eastern Conference darlings. But let's be real.
Milwaukee figures to follow up last season's second-place defensive finish with another intrepid showing on that end. Its stable of shot-blockers is limited to John Henson, but there is enough perimeter length in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Michael Carter-Williams and Middleton to obstruct—borderline obliterate—any dribble penetration.
Offense remains the most pressing concern for this team. Monroe is the No. 1 option the Bucks didn't have last season, but he does nothing to remedy their spacing warts. They ranked in the bottom seven of three-point volume and efficiency for 2014-15 and were statistically worse during the preseason.
Jabari Parker's return from an ACL injury should help move things along. But, per the Journal Sentinel's Charles F. Gardner, he isn't expected back until later in November. And once he comes back, he still needs to prove he can be an average three-point shooter.
Even more troubling, the Bucks don't have a starting-caliber point guard. Carter-Williams just isn't there yet, and Greivis Vasquez is a career backup. According to Gardner, head coach Jason Kidd is already planning on using Antetokounmpo at all five positions, including point guard, to offset that dearth of playmaking.
Until the Bucks deploy a more refined floor general, they'll struggle to put points on the board. And so long as they struggle to score, they'll remain well outside the title-chasing bubble—as a defensive dynamo that just isn't ready to make the leap.
Indiana Pacers: 53-1
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Please take a moment to grab any umbrellas or ponchos that may be in the vicinity. It's about to rain all over the Indiana Pacers' parade.
Under no circumstances—outside of Vegas at least—do the Pacers have a better chance at winning a title than more than half their peers. They just don't.
Paul George, their best player, begins the regular season as a question mark. His move to power forward ignited an offensive revolution during the preseason, but that experiment is ongoing and he's still in the early stages of returning from a broken leg.
More than that, Indiana just doesn't have enough talent. Monta Ellis' shaky three-point touch (31.4 percent for career) doesn't allow him to spend ample time off the ball, and the Pacers' paint protection is now wholly reliant on Jordan Hill actually trying, Ian Mahinmi replacing Hibbert and Myles Turner expediting the rookie learning curve.
Indeed, the offense should be better. It's faster and better equipped to create mismatches. But these aren't the Pacers from 2013-14 or earlier. They're rebuilding. And though rebuilding teams can make postseason pushes in the East—a la the Celtics—those surges have, at best, a second-round cap.
Toronto Raptors: 53-1
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Roster imbalance flat-out destroyed last season's Toronto Raptors.
Kyle Lowry piloted a top-three offense and did so with All-Star DeMar DeRozan on the shelf for more than one-quarter of the schedule. But the team's offensive model was imperfect—dogged by an absence of ball movement and overuse of isolations. Toronto also fielded one of the league's eight worst defenses, which limited its potential against elite contenders.
Offensive creativity and defensive integrity aren't terminal issues now.
DeMarre Carroll alone shifts the Raptors' two-way identity. He strokes threes, moves the ball and effectively defends the most potent outside weapons. Bismack Biyombo will grab the rebounds and block the shots that Jonas Valanciunas won't. Patrick Patterson is a floor-spacing upgrade over Amir Johnson at the 4.
Dual-point guard lineups featuring Cory Joseph and Lowry should be a nightly staple. Terrence Ross clearly wasn't worth a top-eight pick, but he rocks rims and, most importantly, chucks threes at an above-average clip (37.3 percent for career). Not even DeRozan, who missed more shots during the preseason (42) than Ross attempted (35), can gum up Toronto's newly instituted spacing machine.
These Raptors are among the foremost challengers for the East's No. 2 seed. And if all goes according to plan on the defensive end, they could swiftly become the favorites to spend eternity nipping at Cleveland's heels.
Washington Wizards: 42-1
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Washington Wizards head coach Randy Wittman now understands the value, not to mention overwhelming importance, of running small. It took him entirely too long to reach that conclusion, but he's there.
And so are the Wizards.
Never before has their offense looked more dangerous. They were the Association's most efficient point-piling powerhouse through the preseason and are still armed to the teeth on defense.
Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat and John Wall are enough to vault the Wizards into any Eastern Conference competition that matters. But it's their ancillary weapons that really solidify their spot among the league's most balanced teams.
Otto Porter Jr. looks ready to assume combo-forward responsibilities after posting desirable per-36-minute splits during the playoffs. Alan Anderson, Jared Dudley, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Martell Webster ensure Washington will never run out of catch-and-shoot options for Wall's drive-and-kicks.
Kris Humphries is single-handedly proving 30-year-old veterans can reinvent their games. The Wizards asked him to shoot threes, and he responded by attempting more treys in the preseason than Beal and Porter. Combined.
Now seems like a good time for an impromptu exercise: Which teams have a collective offensive and defensive ceiling higher than that of the Wizards?
Acceptable answers include Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs, followed by complete and utter silence.
New Orleans Pelicans: 37-1
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Alexis Ajinca (hamstring) and Omer Asik (calf) continue to battle injuries. Quincy Pondexter is still recovering from left knee surgery. Norris Cole's ankle injury is serious enough that the Pelicans signed Nate Robinson.
Tyreke Evans will miss six to eight weeks as he works his way back from arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, according to the Times-Picayune's John Reid.
Jrue Holiday told SI.com's Rob Mahoney that he will be on a strict minutes cap to start the season.
In sum: The Pelicans are neither healthy nor even close to healthy. Their abundance of injuries could derail their 2015-16 crusade before the All-Star break.
Why, then, should there be more faith in their championship potential than roughly two-thirds of the league?
Well, that's easy.
Anthony Davis is still breathing.
Atlanta Hawks: 36-1
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How important was Carroll to the Atlanta Hawks' Eastern Conference Finals run?
We're about to find out.
After rattling off 60 victories and lording over the East for all of last season, the Hawks are due for some regression. Carroll led them in postseason win shares, but he's now in Toronto and will be succeeded by a four-prong swingman rotation consisting of Kent Bazemore, Tim Hardaway Jr., Justin Holiday and Thabo Sefolosha.
Second place, behind the front-running Cavaliers, is nonetheless the Hawks' to lose.
Al Horford, Paul Millsap and Tiago Splitter give them the East's best frontcourt carousel, and they still have the means to spread defenses beyond function with shooter-stocked lineups. Jeff Teague is now an All-Star floor general (make note, Dennis Schroder), and Kyle Korver refers to his hands as "flame-throwing thingamabobs."
There will inevitably be threats to Atlanta's spot in the conference food chain, but they're isolated. There is no team outside of Chicago, Toronto and Washington unequivocally built to prevent Atlanta from being Cleveland's second in command.
Speaking of which...
Miami Heat: 36-1
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Buy the Miami Heat as bona fide title contenders at your own risk.
Sure, they look good, potentially great, on paper. But championships aren't won in pencil.
As Grantland's Zach Lowe underscored:
"Miami defended at a league-worst level when Dragic and Wade shared the court last season, per NBA.com, though none of those minutes included Bosh. Wade is a 50- or 60-game player with bad knees, and no one knows if he can hold up through late May — if the Heat last that long. Bosh is 31 and coming off a traumatic health issue, and Josh McRoberts is rebuilding his knee. Luol Deng is 30, with Tom Thibodeau miles in the rearview. Amar’e Stoudemire hasn’t been able to move on defense in five years. The Heat have tried to trade Chris Andersen and Mario Chalmers to anyone who would have them, per sources around the league, but if they deal them now to trim their repeater tax bill, they’d also thin their bench to red-alert levels. Gerald Green and Tyler Johnson will help, but it’s too early to count on them.
Most of all, Hassan Whiteside has to prove he can grind through 82 games, year after year.
"
Nothing the Heat did during the preseason lends merit to their perceived status. They increased the speed at which they play, using nearly 100 possessions per 48 minutes, but the offense regressed statistically. They still cannot shoot threes (29.4 percent), and while the spacing and off-ball screens are there, the chemistry just isn't.
It may not be long before Miami abandons the Goran Dragic-inspired approach in favor of more Dwyane Wade, Hassan Whiteside- and even Chris Bosh-friendly half-court sets. It's easier to run and, in theory, should allow the team's defensive mojo to leak into the regular season.
Whatever the case, until the Heat's promise on paper starts translating into measurable appeal on the court, they're an unfounded championship pick.
Memphis Grizzlies: 31-1
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To answer your question: No, the Memphis Grizzlies will never learn.
All four of last season's Conference Finals participants also ranked in the top four of made three-pointers. They all ranked in the top six of three-point attempts.
Both teams to partake in the NBA Finals, Cleveland and Golden State, finished in the top three of three-point percentage. The eventual champion Warriors led the league in long-ball efficiency, finding nylon on 42.2 percent of their triples.
See where this is going?
Because Memphis does not.
Like always, the Grizzlies figure to be a stout defensive contingent. And yes, this side of Brandan Wright's arrival and JaMychal Green's preseason swag, they are more athletic.
But their offense is stuck in the stone age, bogged down by a traditional starting frontcourt in Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph that is spelled by an assortment of spacing-challenged second-stringers. And Tony Allen doesn't help matters. He's too valuable defensively to bench but too incompetent to have the green light outside three feet of the hoop.
Mike Conley and Courtney Lee can only carry the three-point burden for so long before the Grizzlies offense does what it's wont to do: regress to average or below average just in time for Memphis to earn a "pretender" label.
Houston Rockets: 17-1
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Iron-fisted defensive stances backed the Houston Rockets' rise to second place in the Western Conference last season.
Dwight Howard missed more games in 2014-15 than he did through his first 10 seasons combined, and yet the Rockets still ranked sixth in defensive efficiency. They were even more statistically frugal with him in the game, so if he stays healthy—or if Clint Capela's 12-game rim-protecting spree proves sustainable—a top-five finish is well within reach.
That's before considering any of Houston's offensive improvements.
Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas are playing to boost their restricted free-agency stocks and have already shown they can operate as stretch 4s or 5s. The Rockets also acquired this Ty Lawson guy, who was one of just three players to maintain averages of at least 21 points and 13.5 assists per 100 possessions through 2014-15.
The other two? Chris Paul and John Wall.
Figuring out how to play James Harden—we just went over 100 words without mentioning the runner-up for league MVP; oh my god—and Lawson together will be head coach Kevin McHale's greatest challenge. But, as Ian Levy pointed out for the Sporting News, that registers somewhere between "irrelevant" and "my championship ring is too heavy to wear" on the trouble scale:
"What's interesting is that, from a very simplistic perspective, a hypothetical on-court pairing of these two might not require as much accommodation or adaptation as one would think. Comparing the two players' styles in a vacuum suggests Harden complementing Lawson as the primary ball-handler would be somewhat natural.
"
Only a handful of teams can match Houston's cumulative offensive and defensive appeal. This is to say: The Rockets are going to win a ton of games and compete for a championship.
Chicago Bulls: 15-1
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The Chicago Bulls' championship pursuit is alive with promise and peril.
On the one hand, head coach Fred Hoiberg is an offensive mastermind. The Bulls are already more creative on that end of the floor, embracing the presence of additional pick-and-rolls and away-from-the-action movements that open driving lanes and confuse defenders.
On the other, more menacing hand, the Bulls' offensive ascension could come at the expense of their typically formidable defense. They fell outside the top 10 of efficiency last season for the first time since 2009-10, and that was without playing particularly fast. They ranked in the bottom 10 of possessions used per 48 minutes.
Regaining that first-rate points-prevention prowess will be difficult, if not impossible under the pace-promoting Hoiberg. The Bulls generated almost four possessions more per 48 minutes in the preseason, and Hoiberg has already demoted Joakim Noah to bench duty, per the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson.
Everything could work out in the end. Chicago has a ton of defensive talent on the roster, Jimmy Butler is a stud, and Hoiberg's Iowa State teams weren't defensive disasters considering the pace at which they played. But a starting frontcourt of Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic is combustible, and the team has no idea what to expect of Derrick Rose on defense.
For all the Bulls should do right, there's a lot that could go wrong in Hoiberg's first year at the helm. Where they were once considered the Cavaliers' greatest conference foe, they're now just another member of the East's upper-middle class.
San Antonio Spurs: 15-1
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Say hello to the Miami Heat 2.0.
Mustering enough faith in San Antonio is bound to be difficult after watching it labor through the preseason. The offense was one of the NBA's worst, hardly resembling the portrait of effortless greatness most expected—in large part because the Spurs launched the wrong shots.
More than 31 percent of their total looks came from mid-range, a rate of distribution they'll need to kick immediately. Of the six teams that took 30 percent or more of their shots from that area last season, five finished in the bottom 10 of offensive efficiency and not a single one ranked inside the top 15.
Even so, it's equally difficult to bet against Spurs, just because they're the Spurs.
Tim Duncan is an ageless wonder, and he's now complemented by a fellow perennial All-Star in LaMarcus Aldridge. Kawhi Leonard is already the Spurs' most important player—last season's on- and off-court splits tell no lies—and will soon be their most talented player on both ends of the floor.
Tony Parker and Patty Mills combine to make one star-level point guard. Manu Ginobili always has a cluster of games that remind you he is one of the primary authors of today's preferred play styles. Danny Green is a top three-and-D asset. David West brings starter talent to the bench. Boris Diaw can still play every position.
Unlike the actual Heat, you're allowed, and encouraged, to believe in the Spurs. Their on-paper championship clout may take time to reach fruition, but it's too great to ignore over the course of an entire season.
Los Angeles Clippers: 10-1
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Assuming the Los Angeles Clippers' anemic preseason offense is not a harbinger of impending doom, they have the pieces to warrant top-five odds.
Paul will still have something to say about Stephen Curry grabbing the best point guard crown, and he speaks through dimes, points, assists and over-the-top reactions to blown whistles. Blake Griffin adds to his game every season, and this may be the year we see pull-up threes as a de facto point forward become an official part of his repertoire.
DeAndre Jordan is a superficial Defensive Player of the Year candidate. But he remains an imposing rebounder, volume shot-blocker and cold-blooded lob-lover.
J.J. Redick is the closest thing to a miniature Kyle Korver the NBA has. Paul Pierce's teams are guaranteed at least one playoff series win. Jamal Crawford plays every game like his scoring average depends on it. Lance Stephenson need only defend like he did in Indiana to earn his paycheck. Wesley Johnson can play the 4 when Griffin moves to center, and Pablo Prigioni has a sweet-shooting touch head coach Doc Rivers can only hope rubs off on Austin Rivers.
These Clippers are going to be really, really good. So good, we can't yet fathom just how good.
They won 56 games in a brutal Western Conference last season while sporting a puddle-deep rotation. Even though they're still members of a ferocious West, they have the talent necessary to improve and break through the second-round barrier that has marred past title pursuits.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 7-1
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Gauging the Oklahoma City Thunder's championship legitimacy is about one thing.
Or rather, it's about three players who coalesce into one thing.
Injuries to Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Russell Westbrook have wrecked each of the Thunder's last three title pushes. But all three are healthy now, so irrespective of how the rest of the roster looks (sigh...Enes Kanter...$70 million...four years...sigh), the championship-chasing can resume.
Take last season, when Oklahoma City missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010.
In the 616 minutes Durant, Ibaka and Westbrook played together, the Thunder outscored their opponents by 11.4 points per 100 possessions—a differential identical to that of the 67-win, title-toting Warriors.
Now, the Big Three won't spend every second of every quarter of every game on the floor, but they don't need to. That's been the beauty of the Thunder these past five years.
When healthy, these three, regardless of their coach or supporting cast, are enough to keep Oklahoma City chugging along with the most hopeful championship contenders.
Golden State Warriors: 5-1
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It makes sense that the Warriors, who fielded one of the best teams in NBA history last season, don't end up with the most favorable odds. They play in the mighty Western Conference, and they seem due for a slide after steamrolling said conference.
That doesn't make this right.
Consider this: The 2014-15 Warriors, on average, outpaced opponents by 11.4 points per 100 possessions, which was 4.5 points better than any other team (Clippers, plus-6.9). But they were winning by so much, so often that head coach Steve Kerr elected to rest his starters in the fourth quarter:
| 9.5 | 17.4 | 14.9 | 3.8 |
Through the first three frames, the Warriors' average net rating checked in just below 14 points per 100 possessions. That's absurd, and it means that they were even better than advertised when going at full bore.
And with more than 90 percent of last season's minutes represented on this season's roster, it would be foolish to consider them anything less than the untouchable juggernaut they've proved to be.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 2-1
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Behold the power of giving James a license to play in the Eastern Conference.
Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert are on the shelf. Tristan Thompson only just returned to the team. James spent most of the preseason dealing with back injuries.
Somehow, none of that matters.
No team in the East comes close to rivaling the Cavaliers, even as they fight through absences and injuries. And because reaching the NBA Finals accounts for most of the championship-hunting battle, they are the odds-on favorites.
Not that they don't deserve this prime placement. Arguments in favor of the Warriors should be listened to, if not accepted as fact. But the Cavaliers will be equally scary once their Big Three is healthy and back together in again.
Kevin Love, Irving and James appeared in 33 games together last season following King LeBron's January return from a two-week sabbatical. The Cavaliers' record in those contests? 29-4.
It's moments such as these when you wonder if the Eastern Conference should even bother to play the games anymore.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited and are accurate leading into games on Oct. 27. Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and are accurate through Oct. 26.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @danfavale.
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