2015-16 NBA Power Rankings: Season Tipoff Edition
Blessedly, mercifully, joyously, the 2015-16 NBA season has arrived.
No more free-agent-frenzied July, dead quiet August and everyone's-in-the-best-shape-of-his-life September.
No more wondering about breakout candidates, adjustment periods for new coaches or dubious roster moves.
No more questions. It's answer time.
And it's also Power Ranking time.
We'll christen the campaign by organizing all 30 teams from worst to best, using last year's finish, the summer's changes and a little forward-looking analysis to set out the first hierarchy.
Rest assured: These rankings will change as stars rise or fall and as teams surprise or disappoint. That unpredictability is part of the fun.
Rejoice! The season is here!
30. Philadelphia 76ers
1 of 30
2014-15 Record: 18-64
Offseason Story: It was more of the same this past summer for the Philadelphia 76ers...in most of the worst ways. They got younger and cheaper (hauling in Nik Stauskas in a salary-dump deal with the Sacramento Kings), and they learned Joel Embiid would likely miss yet another season after a CT scan in June revealed "less healing than anticipated," per Sixers general manager Sam Hinkie.
The waiting game continues.
What to Watch For: Two of the three potential big-man cornerstones are still standing in Philly, and their ability to work in tandem this season will tell us more about the Sixers' future than anything else. Nerlens Noel profiles as a defensive superstar: great hands, quick feet, length and an evolving grasp of positioning.
Derek Bodner of Phillymag.com broke down just how profound Noel's defensive presence was last year:
"Noel's impact on the team's defensive success was just as profound. Without Noel on the court the Sixers gave up 107.7 points per 100 possessions, which would rank 25th in the league, and falls in line with the Sixers 26th ranking in defensive rating during the 2013-14 campaign. With Noel on the court that defensive rating fell to 103.1, which would be the 6th best mark in the league. It's the kind of defensive impact that 20-year-old rookies aren't supposed to have.
"
Jahlil Okafor is a throwback offensive technician inside, which would seem to make him an ideal frontcourt option alongside Noel. If one or the other can space the floor at all, the Sixers won't have to draft a fourth big in next year's lottery.
They will, however, be at or near the very top of the draft...again. But hey, that's the plan, right?
29. Brooklyn Nets
2 of 30
2014-15 Record: 38-44
Offseason Story: Deron Williams is gone after a buyout ended his tumultuous Brooklyn Nets tenure, and no proven veteran talent came aboard to replace him. The Nets have a couple of lottery tickets in rookie Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Thomas Robinson, the No. 5 pick in 2012. Both should see rotation minutes, with Hollis-Jefferson profiling as a fan favorite because of his energy and defensive leanings.
What to Watch For: If a healthy Brook Lopez stabilizes a shaky Nets offense, it's possible Brooklyn finishes with more than 30 wins on the season. And winning should probably be the goal this year because the Nets don't have the rights to their first-round pick in the 2016 draft. The Boston Celtics scooped it up in the deal that sent Kevin Garnett to Brooklyn in 2013.
Joe Johnson's massive contract comes off the books after this season, which will give the Nets the spending room they've lacked for what seems like forever. The season ahead will be rough, but head coach Lionel Hollins is the sort of uncompromising leader who'll try to forge a gritty, focused identity through some difficult times.
28. Minnesota Timberwolves
3 of 30
2014-15 Record: 16-66
Offseason Story: Flip Saunders' death makes every basketball concern a secondary thing for the Minnesota Timberwolves. The former head coach and team president was a beloved leader who guided the Wolves through their most successful seasons. The promising roster that exists today is a direct result of his efforts to make the Timberwolves matter again.
He succeeded.
What to Watch For: No. 1 overall picks Karl-Anthony Towns (2015) and Andrew Wiggins (2014) give the Wolves the most intriguing one-two punch in the league...in 2018 or so. For now, both will take their lumps on a team that should be better than it was a year ago but will almost certainly revisit the lottery.
Ricky Rubio played just 22 games last year and has battled injuries in all but one of his four NBA seasons. If he's healthy enough to feed Wiggins and Towns, the Timberwolves offense should finish much higher than 26th in the league. The real focal point is on the other end, though, where the Wolves finished last in defensive efficiency in 2014-15.
Towns will have to be a difference-maker in the middle right away for the Wolves to wind up outside the bottom 10 in that category.
27. Los Angeles Lakers
4 of 30
2014-15 Record: 21-61
Offseason Story: Strikeouts on their big free-agent swings meant the Los Angeles Lakers had to target second-tier additions. Brandon Bass should see minutes at power forward, Roy Hibbert (acquired for a second-rounder) will start at center, Lou Williams will score off the bench and Metta World Peace (!!!) will be on the roster, officially, after earning the 15th and final spot.
Though the veteran crew is mostly uninspiring, there's a promising youth contingent that got even better with the addition of No. 2 overall pick D'Angelo Russell. The Lakers will bring the Ohio State product along slowly, but expect second-year talents Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle to play major roles all year.
What to Watch For: In his 20th season with the Lakers, Kobe Bryant will look to post his first healthy campaign since 2012-13. Staying on the floor will be difficult enough for the 37-year-old, but playing passable defense and shooting efficiently will be nearly impossible if his last two years offer any indication of what's ahead.
Expect Bryant to be the central figure on the roster this season, as always, for better or worse.
Actually, it's worse. Definitely worse.
26. Denver Nuggets
5 of 30
2014-15 Record: 30-52
Offseason Story: The Denver Nuggets found their head coach in Mike Malone and their point guard of the future in No. 7 overall pick Emmanuel Mudiay. We don't yet know how those two will combine to form the team's identity going forward, but that dynamic will be critical to the Nuggets' development.
What to Watch For: It's hard to know if the Nuggets will be better than they were a year ago, but there's no doubt they'll be a more stable franchise.
Malone's history as a defensive coach suggests Denver will mix its patented uptempo attack with a more disciplined effort on the other end. And replacing the volatile Ty Lawson with Mudiay might actually have a calming effect on the roster, which isn't something you'd normally expect from a rookie point guard.
With Danilo Gallinari looking like his old self at the end of last year (and during the preseason), Wilson Chandler providing solid play on the wing and Jusuf Nurkic potentially looming as a franchise center, there's a lot to like about the Nuggets' future.
Even if Nurkic isn't ready to return by November (patellar tendon surgery in May), Malone thinks Denver might be fine in the middle, per Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post: "Nikola Jokic, he's a young kid and I'm not saying he's ready, but he does things every practice that make you say 'Wow, this kid has a chance to be a (heck of a) player.'"
This year will constitute one step in a much longer process, but now that you can see the outlines of a style and a culture, the down-the-road results look good.
25. Portland Trail Blazers
6 of 30
2014-15 Record: 51-31
Offseason Story: Damian Lillard must still wake up two or three times a week and think—if only for a second—the Portland Trail Blazers' 2015 offseason was only a dream. But the total teardown, complete with four of the five starters leaving town, was real. So Lillard will go to battle this season without LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum or Robin Lopez. A cast of young players will fill in the gaps as Portland starts over.
What to Watch For: Lillard could make a run at the scoring title this year, and C.J. McCollum might earn Most Improved honors. The reason is the same: Portland doesn't have anyone else to handle the ball or put it in the bucket.
If Meyers Leonard's postseason emergence (brief as it was) translates to regular-season play, the Blazers may have a third scorer on the roster. But unless that trio can put up 120 points per game in Terry Stotts' typically excellent drive-and-kick scheme, Portland isn't going to defend well enough to win more than 25 games.
24. New York Knicks
7 of 30
2014-15 Record: 17-65
Offseason Story: The New York Knicks joined the Lakers as big-market whiffers, missing out on the marquee names and settling for what was left over. Robin Lopez, Arron Afflalo, Kyle O'Quinn and rookie Kristaps Porzingis headline the reinforcements Carmelo Anthony will lean on in his return from a knee injury that ended his 2014-15 season.
What to Watch For: Anthony's health and Porzingis' development are the two keys to success in New York this season. Well, actually, success is a little strong. Those two players are the keys to keeping the Knicks out of the East basement.
All signs are positive for Melo, and Porzingis has apparently secured a starting job already—both important developments because, as Marc Berman of the New York Post notes, the stakes are high:
"Anthony got through the preseason swimmingly, though he did not attack the basket as much as in the past. Recovering fully from a torn patellar tendon at age 31 is not the easiest. If the losing mounts, Porzingis is a disappointment and Anthony is still a one-man band, he may ultimately give up on Phil Jackson’s reloading program.
"
The triangle may no longer be a viable system, and head coach Derek Fisher has plenty to prove in his second year. Because the East continues to look weak, it's not impossible that the Knicks could challenge for the final playoff spot.
But it's profoundly unlikely.
23. Orlando Magic
8 of 30
2014-15 Record: 25-57
Offseason Story: Adding head coach Scott Skiles basically assures defensive improvement; according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, teams have improved an average of 12 spots in the defensive efficiency rankings in Skiles' first season on the job. That'll be a welcome bounce in Orlando, where the Magic finished 25th in efficiency last season, per NBA.com.
What to Watch For: There's talent on this roster, but it feels like the Magic are still a year or two away (Tobias Harris, Victor Oladipo, Elfrid Payton and Nikola Vucevic are still 25 or younger), and the lack of backcourt shooting is a major concern.
Skiles can instill a culture, but it's unlikely he'll fix Payton's broken shot.
Croatian rookie Mario Hezonja has the size, handle and confidence to be a factor right away. But he's even less experienced than the rest of the team's core. Toss in Aaron Gordon, blindingly talented but continually beset by injuries that have kept him off the floor, and you've got yet another reason to like the future but be cautious about the present in Orlando.
22. Charlotte Hornets
9 of 30
2014-15 Record: 33-49
Offseason Story: In the 27 games Michael Kidd-Gilchrist missed last season, the Charlotte Hornets went just 6-21, which is why nothing in their offseason mattered more than the shoulder injury that will likely keep MKG off the floor for the entire 2015-16 campaign.
Charlotte made some win-now moves before that critical injury, adding Batum and Jeremy Lin, along with veteran bigs Spencer Hawes and Tyler Hansbrough. Rookie Frank Kaminsky should be ready to contribute immediately as a shooter from deep and is a smart scorer inside.
Everything was lined up for a return to the postseason until Kidd-Gilchrist went down. Even with their new pieces, the Hornets could struggle to improve on last year's disappointing 33 wins.
What to Watch For: If Charlotte is going to defy our diminished expectations, it'll do it by shrinking Kemba Walker's role in the offense. Or at least changing it, as the inefficient point guard used up too many offensive possessions last year.
According to John Schuhmann of NBA.com: "Among 151 players with at least 2,000 shots over the last four years, Kemba Walker (44.0 percent) ranks last in effective field goal percentage."
Lin can help ease the playmaking burden, hopefully setting Walker up for easier shots. And Batum can handle the ball well enough to move Walker into more of a pure scoring role. Both additions should help.
If Walker can improve his efficiency, the Hornets should score the ball much more effectively. Though it would be hard for them to be any worse, as they ranked 28th in points per play last season.
21. Detroit Pistons
10 of 30
2014-15 Record: 32-50
Offseason Story: We'll leave the summary to David Mayo of MLive.com: "Stan Van Gundy, the president of basketball operations, head coach, and totalitarian leader of the Pistons, brought in seven new faces for the purpose of fitting his predetermined offensive design."
Greg Monroe left via free agency, joining the Bucks and ceding interior dominance to Andre Drummond. Rookie Stanley Johnson should quickly become a fixture on the wing, and Ersan Ilyasova and Marcus Morris came aboard to stretch the floor. Re-signed Reggie Jackson will run an endless series of pick-and-rolls with Drummond.
If any of this sounds at all familiar—the pick-and-roll sets, the single big man, the three other shooters spacing the court—it's because Van Gundy's Orlando Magic looked exactly like this.
The Detroit Pistons are Magic 2.0, beta version.
What to Watch For: If the Drummond leap is going to happen, we should probably expect it this season. Van Gundy has the kind of roster he wants, and we know Dwight Howard (Drummond's predecessor in Van Gundy's mind) was never better than he was under SVG's tutelage in Orlando.
Surrounded by shooters, rolling to the hole and carrying a full year of experience with his coach's system, Drummond could break out—which is saying something for a player who averaged 13.8 points, 13.5 rebounds and 1.9 blocks as a 21-year-old last season.
Detroit should be in contention for one of the last two playoff spots in the East.
20. Indiana Pacers
11 of 30
2014-15 Record: 38-44
Offseason Story: The Indiana Pacers swapped identities this past summer, trading size and bulk for speed and skill. Replacing Hibbert and David West with Monta Ellis and newly minted power forward (yes, power forward) Paul George should charge up the offense at the expense of defense and rebounding.
These are not the Pacers you grew to know over the past few years.
But maybe that's not such a bad thing.
What to Watch For: It feels like we've hit a cutoff point at No. 20. Where the previous entries were either definitely bad or most likely bad, Indy looks like its absolute basement is "respectable" in 2015-16.
George, now healthy after missing almost all of last year, should have a field day whenever he's lined up as a 4. He's too quick and too good of a shooter for any conventional bigs to handle him. And it's important to remember he was viewed as a better stopper than scorer before his injury. He should be fine on defense against almost every oversized matchup he faces—especially considering we've moved past the age of the punishing post-up power forward.
Ellis is the speedy shot-creator Frank Vogel's offense has always lacked, and George Hill can cover the tougher backcourt matchups Ellis can't.
If rookie big man Myles Turner brings the three-point range and shot-blocking many believe he can, Indiana could be one of the more exciting offenses in the league.
That's weird to say.
19. Sacramento Kings
12 of 30
2014-15 Record: 29-53
Offseason Story: It's important to distinguish between short-term success and long-term vision, particularly because the Sacramento Kings put together one of the most controversial offseasons in the league pursuing the former at the expense of the latter.
Head personnel man Vlade Divac surrendered last year's lottery pick (Stauskas) and a bevy of draft assets to the Sixers, all in the interest of clearing cap space for immediate help. Said help arrived in the form of Rajon Rondo, Marco Belinelli and Kosta Koufos.
Along with DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay, Darren Collison and Ben McLemore, there's now legitimate NBA talent populating the Kings' roster. Unfortunately, it's not enough to do more than make Sacramento a peripheral contender for the eighth playoff spot in the West this season.
But hey, it's been a long time since anyone could say that. So in a strange way, the Kings got what they wanted.
What to Watch For: Anyone who claims to know how this season will unfold is lying to you. George Karl and Cousins might toilet paper each other's houses in the first week of the season. Rondo might destroy the offense. Divac could trade the whole roster and fire Karl at the deadline.
This could be the worst team in the league if Karl can't get a buy-in and the chemistry never comes.
Or, the considerably improved talent and coaching acumen could result in a playoff spot.
Everything's in play here.
18. Dallas Mavericks
13 of 30
2014-15 Record: 50-32
Offseason Story: DeAndre Jordan was a Dallas Maverick, and then he wasn't. The moves that followed were fallback plays, mostly reactionary in nature. Wesley Matthews got a bump in pay, Deron Williams showed up after his buyout with the Nets, and Zaza Pachulia arrived to replace Tyson Chandler, who signed with the Phoenix Suns.
Ellis walked. Chandler Parsons had a mysterious knee operation. Dirk Nowitzki aged a year.
The Mavericks remade themselves after missing out on their primary free-agent target, but the new version is clearly inferior to the old one.
What to Watch For: Dallas turns over its roster like this all the time, and head coach Rick Carlisle has found a way to make new personnel work together for as long as he's been in charge of the Mavs.
But this is a tougher task than he's ever faced. There is no defensive anchor in the middle and no proven, reliable shot-creator at the point. The team's two best wings, Parsons and Matthews, are massive question marks because of injury. And Nowitzki's already limited mobility all but disappeared last season.
Maybe Carlisle is good enough to meet this challenge. And maybe we shouldn't question the strategies of an organization that has won more games than everyone but the San Antonio Spurs during Nowitzki's tenure on the team.
"But maybe keeping a roster together for more than a season, responsibly adding a single piece to the puzzle at a time instead [of] throwing them all together at once, would finally give Rick Carlisle a chance to maximize what makes him great instead [of] asking him to try and do the impossible," wrote Tim Cato of MavsMoneyball.com.
17. Phoenix Suns
14 of 30
2014-15 Record: 39-43
Offseason Story: The Suns were busy this past summer, signing Chandler and Mirza Teletovic, re-signing Brandon Knight, drafting Devin Booker and splitting up the Morris twins by sending Marcus to Detroit. The question now: Do those moves create an instability that will drag the Suns backward, or will they finally result in a playoff berth?
At this juncture, it's hard to say.
But at least we're done with that whole three-point-guards nonsense.
What to Watch For: An ankle injury prevented the Suns from seeing what Knight could really do after he came over in a deal with the Bucks last year. Though Phoenix was satisfied enough to re-sign him, Knight will now get a full season alongside Eric Bledsoe to prove he's worth the money.
The backcourt will have to score because there's not much punch on the wings, and Markieff Morris (despite insisting he's happy in Phoenix) might not be reliable up front. Fortunately, Phoenix's defense should be substantially improved. Chandler will lead from the interior, and both Bledsoe and P.J. Tucker can lock down opponents on the perimeter.
If everything clicks, this is a team worthy of contending for a playoff spot. But if Chandler ages and Morris starts to grouse, Phoenix could reveal itself to be a lottery team pretty quickly.
16. Milwaukee Bucks
15 of 30
2014-15 Record: 41-41
Offseason Story: After finishing 25th in offensive efficiency last season, the Milwaukee Bucks bring in Greg Monroe on a max deal and bring back second-year forward Jabari Parker, who lost most of his rookie season to a torn ACL.
Even if the roster's general lack of shooting prowess (outside stud wing Khris Middleton) means Monroe gets less room to operate inside, those two additions alone could propel the Bucks offense to league-average levels.
That is good news because the defense figures to remain elite.
What to Watch For: John Henson is a solid third big man who can block shots in relief of Monroe, and his services inside will only be needed if offensive players can navigate the thicket of long arms and aggressive switches on the perimeter. If Michael Carter-Williams takes a small step forward and Giannis Antetokounmpo takes a leap (equally possible in my estimation), this roster will be one to watch as a possible contender in a year or two.
For now, it's difficult to see a team with such a stout defense finishing outside the East playoffs. And if the kids grow up quickly, we could see the Bucks challenging for a top-four seed as soon as this season.
15. Boston Celtics
16 of 30
2014-15 Record: 40-42
Offseason Story: A few seasons' worth of hoarded assets wasn't enough for the Boston Celtics to swing a big trade or move up in the draft to nab prized prospect Justise Winslow. So the Celtics pivoted, looking to improve by adding lots of potentially good pieces instead of one definitely great one.
Amir Johnson signed a two-year deal and immediately became the team's best rim-protector. Jonas Jerebko re-signed, and he'll allow Boston to employ plenty of defensive switches against the right matchups. Toss in a new deal for Jae Crowder and a whole bunch of rookies (led by intriguing shooter R.J. Hunter), and Boston's stable of talent is deep.
Confession: I don't understand the reasoning behind the David Lee trade. Expiring contracts are great and all, but his presence could stunt the growth of more important long-term pieces like Kelly Olynyk and Tyler Zeller.
What to Watch For: The Celtics don't really have a weakness, but they also lack star strength. Isaiah Thomas will do his best to lead as a game-closing scorer off the bench (he was terrific in 21 healthy games with the C's last year), but this is going to be a team effort.
Marcus Smart could improve on offense, and he's already among the league's most potent weapons on D. Assuming head coach Brad Stevens makes the right decisions with a suddenly bottomless rotation, Boston should get over the .500 mark and do better than the No. 8 seed it secured a year ago.
14. Utah Jazz
17 of 30
2014-15 Record: 38-44
Offseason Story: The Utah Jazz didn't do much to their roster over the summer. Why would they? After posting the league's top defensive rating after the All-Star break (and fourth-best net rating), there was no reason to tinker.
Besides, getting Alec Burks back from a shoulder injury was the team's "biggest offseason acquisition," according to GM Dennis Lindsey, as relayed by Ben Dowsett of BasketballInsiders.com.
What to Watch For: The key to Utah's success will be sustaining the level of defensive dominance it achieved late last season. With Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors manning the paint, it's not hard to see the Jazz ranking comfortably among the league's top five in defensive efficiency.
If the offense (led by the wildly underrated Gordon Hayward) can withstand the poor spacing that comes with playing those two interior forces together, Utah will be a handful in the West.
The Jazz are everyone's sleeper—to the point that it may not even qualify as a surprise when they snag one of the final two playoff spots in the West.
13. Washington Wizards
18 of 30
2014-15 Record: 46-38
Offseason Story: In terms of possible rotation options, Jared Dudley, Alan Anderson and Gary Neal were the Washington Wizards' only meaningful additions in the offseason. With Dudley and Anderson both battling injuries ahead of the opener (Dudley's herniated disc will keep him out for another couple of months), the Wizards will have to lean on their incumbent talent.
What to Watch For: The Wizards found something special when they slotted Paul Pierce at power forward during last year's playoffs. Though Pierce is gone now, whether the Wiz can commit to the strategy that unlocked their offense with the remaining personnel will go a long way toward determining their fate this season.
"We've got to make great strives offensively," head coach Randy Wittman told reporters at media day. "We were below average in terms of all the numbers, points per game, points per 100 possessions, pace of play. All those things got to be better. And I think if we stay where we are defensively and we improve ourselves in those offensive numbers, that's how you advance on farther."
Expect to see Kris Humphries and Drew Gooden shooting more threes this year, as they've been in the preseason. And don't be surprised if everyone from Dudley to new starting small forward Otto Porter sees time at the 4.
Wittman knows John Wall and Bradley Beal are the team's most important players, and he learned last spring that both are better in an uptempo, spaced-out offensive environment.
We'll see if he can re-create it without Pierce.
12. Toronto Raptors
19 of 30
2014-15 Record: 49-33
Offseason Story: Even if you're a big believer in the departed Amir Johnson (seriously, that dude is good as long as his ankles hold up), the Toronto Raptors offseason was a positive one. DeMarre Carroll signed on as a free agent, giving the Raps the two-way wing they've desperately needed for years.
Now, there'll be no question about who tackles the opponent's top perimeter threat. And when Toronto wants to shrink the lineup, Carroll can slot in as an undersized 4.
Nothing in Toronto's offseason mattered more than the disappearance of Kyle Lowry. Before anyone worries too much, the All-Star point guard isn't missing. It's just that most of him is gone.
Lowry slimmed down substantially and has dominated preseason play.
What to Watch For: It's easy to write the Raps off after last year's second-half swoon and pitiable playoff performance. But this is a team with a borderline superstar (when fully healthy) in Lowry, one of the league's top post-up threats in Jonas Valanciunas and an excellent wing combination in DeMar DeRozan and Carroll.
And even with that rough late-season collapse, the Raps won 49 games a year ago. With Valanciunas still oozing upside and Lowry looking better than ever, shouldn't we expect Toronto to at least reach that win total again?
11. New Orleans Pelicans
20 of 30
2014-15 Record: 45-37
Offseason Story: Injuries, injuries and injuries.
Omer Asik, Alexis Ajinca, Quincy Pondexter, Norris Cole and Tyreke Evans are all ailing, which is a real bummer because a healthy New Orleans Pelicans team could be good enough to threaten the 50-win mark.
You know what's not a bummer? Signing Anthony Davis to a max deal that assures he'll be around for what should be a glorious ascent to unquestioned perennial MVP candidate status.
So, overall, good summer.
What to Watch For: You may not want to look directly at Davis this season (blindness risk), but at least keep peripheral-vision tabs on him.
You'll want to tell your grandkids you witnessed the birth of one of the greats.
That sounds weird, because anyone watching (again, not directly) realized Davis was already an elite player last season. A ridiculously thin bench will test his brilliance, but with Alvin Gentry freeing AD up on offense, it's difficult to overstate what might be possible.
Grantland's Zach Lowe has a few ideas:
"This could be our chance to vanquish the silly notion that the MVP has to go to someone from one of the league’s top two or three teams. The Pelicans can barely field an NBA rotation right now, and Davis, Mr. Limitless, is going to put up monster numbers while keeping them afloat until the cavalry arrives. If Davis emerges as the league’s best two-way player and carries a battered New Orleans team to the no. 6 seed, he should have a chance at history.
"
The health issues are brutal, but Davis is too good for his Pelicans to rank any lower.
10. Chicago Bulls
21 of 30
2014-15 Record: 50-32
Offseason Story: Bobby Portis looks like one of the better value picks in the draft, but everyone knows the most meaningful thing the Chicago Bulls did this past summer was replace head coach Tom Thibodeau with Fred Hoiberg.
Few coaches had more specific styles and more demanding expectations than Thibs, and Hoiberg's installation means the Bulls will be very different than they were a year ago.
What to Watch For: Do we have to mention Derrick Rose? At this point, wondering about his possible return to form has become so tedious that it's almost better to just leave the issue alone until Rose proves he has even a sliver of MVP-ness left in him.
Instead, let's focus on how Chicago might change under its new coach: Prepare for an exchange of defense for offense.
The Bulls haven't guarded anyone in the preseason. Their defensive rating was second-worst in the league—likely a product of an offensive emphasis in camp, Joakim Noah's general lack of bounce and the absence of a scowling, screaming head coach on the sidelines.
But the offense looks pretty good, and Jimmy Butler looks ready to take another step toward true superstardom.
9. Miami Heat
22 of 30
2014-15 Record: 37-45
Offseason Story: A major reload added depth to a roster that needed it, as the Miami Heat paid pennies for Gerald Green and Amar'e Stoudemire to back up key spots on the wing and front line. Now, when Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh need their rest, the Heat have viable options in reserve.
Not only that, but Miami also drafted unanimous steal Winslow and will get to see how Josh McRoberts' passing fits into its scheme as the big man returns from injury.
What to Watch For: In two words? Sneaky contention.
That's what the Heat are this year as long as they enjoy good luck on the health front. And the truth is, we don't even know how good this roster can be because so little of it has shared the court at the same time.
Goran Dragic and Bosh never played together. Bosh and Hassan Whiteside barely logged any minutes with Wade. Injuries deprived us of a likely playoff team last season. Assuming they don't crop up this year, Miami could very easily enter the title conversation.
Stay tuned.
8. Atlanta Hawks
23 of 30
2014-15 Record: 60-22
Offseason Story: It's fair to expect regression from the Atlanta Hawks this year. Pretty much everybody is doing it.
2014-15 was a charmed campaign, and Atlanta's gaudy 60 wins didn't square with its average margin of victory or general advanced-stats profile. But let's not get crazy about predicting an off-the-cliff tumble. Because despite the loss of Carroll, the Hawks had a solid offseason and will return plenty of talent.
"We're returning 10 guys who played significant roles, four of them starters, and the addition of Tiago [Splitter], who has a significant understanding of how we want to play and was a starter for several years on a very good team," head coach Mike Budenholzer said, per Tom Haberstroh of ESPN.com.
With Paul Millsap re-signed, Dennis Schroeder coming off a breakout year and Thabo Sefolosha ready to rejoin the rotation eventually, the Hawks will be just fine.
What to Watch For: Chemistry and continuity are big deals in Atlanta, and the Hawks enter this season with plenty of both. When you consider that much of the Hawks' success last year stemmed from increasing familiarity with Budenholzer's system, maybe it's not crazy to expect them to sustain or even improve on the level they hit last year.
Kyle Korver's offseason ankle surgery is a concern, but the team is otherwise mostly healthy and intact after a deep playoff run.
At the risk of being too contrarian, I think the Hawks could come pretty close to duplicating their play from a year ago. And in the East, that's good enough to challenge for a top seed.
7. Memphis Grizzlies
24 of 30
2014-15 Record: 55-27
Offseason Story: No team is more committed to its identity than the Memphis Grizzlies, who doubled down on defense and grit but didn't address their weak perimeter shooting through free agency or via trade.
Matt Barnes and Brandan Wright were the only notable additions.
Memphis took the second-fewest threes in the league last year and converted on just 33.9 percent. Based on their preseason play (they've ranked dead last in attempted threes per game), it doesn't look like the Grizzlies will ever embrace the pace and space trends sweeping the rest of the NBA.
What to Watch For: The Grizzlies won 55 games last year, so a bit of pullback won't be fatal. But it should be expected.
Marc Gasol and Mike Conley put up career years, and it's unlikely both will play at their absolute peaks again. In addition, Tony Allen and Zach Randolph are both on the extreme downside of their aging curves.
Toss in more minutes for Jeff Green (always a sure way to cut the legs out of your defense), and Memphis is poised to regress. But because the Grizzlies defense should hold up and because few teams have better chemistry, that just means a win total somewhere in the 48-to-53 range.
6. Los Angeles Clippers
25 of 30
2014-15 Record: 56-26
Offseason Story: The Los Angeles Clippers averted disaster by getting Jordan back, then addressed their embarrassing lack of depth by hauling in Paul Pierce, Lance Stephenson and Josh Smith.
The lack of reliable bench help felled the Clips last year, pushing stars Blake Griffin and Chris Paul beyond the point of exhaustion as a playoff run petered out.
That shouldn't happen this time around.
What to Watch For: The Clippers built a bench and retained their key players. So why won't they be among the league's top five teams?
It's possible they will; these rankings aren't carved on stone tablets. But if you're looking for a reason to doubt Los Angeles, it's fair to focus on Paul, who'll be 31 come playoff time and has already shown signs of subtle decline.
Don't focus on the overall numbers. Paul was a monster last year, playing 82 games and posting the best effective field-goal percentage of his career, per Basketball-Reference.com. Instead, note that he took just 9.3 percent of his field-goal attempts from inside three feet, a career low.
Paul's quickness is diminishing. That doesn't mean he's done. He'll be an All-Star for another few years, but we may not be able to count on MVP-caliber play much longer.
5. Houston Rockets
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2014-15 Record: 56-26
Offseason Story: Getting Ty Lawson for next to nothing was probably the best move any team made this offseason, and the specific context here makes it even better.
The Houston Rockets needed a second playmaker to ease the burden on James Harden, and though Lawson came cheap because of off-court concerns, he's an All-Star talent when he's at his best. After tweaking his deal to make next season's salary partially nonguaranteed, Lawson will be motivated to perform.
A Western Conference finalist just got significantly better.
What to Watch For: To truly contend, the Rockets need a healthy Dwight Howard in the playoffs. After missing 41 games last year, D12 is already battling a stiff back this season. The emergence of Clint Capela as a legitimate backup is huge, and getting healthy seasons from Donatas Motiejunas and Terrence Jones will help, too.
If Houston has to rest Howard liberally to preserve him, so be it. Because the banged-up version we saw last year won't cut it, according to Alec J Neuharth-Keusch of USA Today:
"Dwight Howard has to play at a higher level if the Rockets want to be a realistic title contender. The only other season in which he averaged fewer points (15.8) and rebounds (10.5) than 2014-15 was as a rookie in 2004. He’s a five-time All-NBA first-team selection, eight-time All-Star and three-time Defensive Player of the Year. He needs to play like it.
"
Houston is as deep as any team in the league, but the talent at the top still matters most. Howard has to get right.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
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2014-15 Record: 53-29
Offseason Story: Tristan Thompson's contract saga came to an end just days before the Cleveland Cavaliers' season opener with a five-year, $82 million agreement, according to Chris Haynes of Northeast Ohio Media Group.
That's a lot of money for a fourth big man (if you count LeBron James as a power forward), but the Cavs had to spend it to shore up a frontcourt rotation that needs what Thompson provides.
Now, it's all about getting healthy. Iman Shumpert, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have all gone under the knife in the past few months, and James should be expected to miss time as a precaution. With few threats in the East, the Cavs can take their time getting healthy.
What to Watch For: Assuming Love is ready to roll after his shoulder injury last year, it seems like the 2015-16 season would be a good time to get serious about involving him more substantially in the offense.
"He will do some of the things he did prior to last year," James told ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin.
With Irving working his way back from a cracked patella, the early part of the season should be all about letting Love work.
Regardless of early-season health issues and offensive touches, this Cavs team is far and away the most talented in the conference. Knowing that, don't worry if Cleveland mails in the season and only finishes third or fourth in the East.
It'll be all about the playoff push for James and the Cavaliers. They'll do what's necessary to be ready when it matters.
3. San Antonio Spurs
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2014-15 Record: 55-27
Offseason Story: The San Antonio Spurs lost Cory Joseph, Marco Belinelli and Tiago Splitter, so they're basically screwed.
Unless you think retaining the rest of their core while adding LaMarcus Aldridge and David West was enough to offset those losses...which you should.
The Spurs never die.
What to Watch For: Tony Parker battled hamstring injuries for most of the 2014-15 season and, as a result, posted his lowest player efficiency rating in over a decade. And when the playoffs rolled around, he looked nothing like the lightning-quick point guard who'd initiated the Spurs offense for years.
At 33, Parker is at an age where serious decline is a realistic fear.
Without his penetration, it could be difficult for the Spurs to get the ball pinging around the floor on offense. Though Aldridge can get his own shots and Kawhi Leonard could step in to fill the facilitation void, Parker's contributions would be hard to replace entirely.
We'll see how TP looks early in the year.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
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2014-15 Record: 45-37
Offseason Story: Swapping in new head coach Billy Donovan for Scott Brooks should bring more structure on both ends. And while there are risks in shaking things up, it was clearly time for the Oklahoma City Thunder to move on from Brooks.
There's also this preseason nugget from ESPN.com's Royce Young: "(Dion) Waiters played smart [this] preseason. He made good choices not just with his own shot selection, but in picking a good pass over a good shot. He turned down inefficient shots to move the ball and didn't actively search for a look every time down."
Now I've heard everything.
What to Watch For: The return of a no-brainer title threat.
It's simple, really: OKC is a no-questions-asked contender as long as Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka are healthy.
After suffering injuries of varying severity last year (Durant's Jones fracture being the most serious), all three are ready to rock. And with Durant's free agency looming at the end of the year, everybody should be motivated to make this run count.
Maybe it seems crazy to rank OKC ahead of the Spurs and Cavs. But unless you're convinced Durant is definitely going to miss more time, there's simply not a more talented team in the league.
Well, except for the one that comes next.
1. Golden State Warriors
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2014-15 Record: 67-15
Offseason Story: Other than replacing David Lee with Jason Thompson, the Golden State Warriors return the same roster that ran up a historic per-game margin of victory en route to a championship.
Head coach Steve Kerr is out indefinitely because of complications following offseason back surgery, and his absence will make a difference. As the team's primary emotional leader and confident, experienced guide, Kerr occupied a role that no combination of assistants or interim coaches can fill.
Assuming his absence isn't too prolonged, the Warriors will look exactly like the team that took the title last year.
What to Watch For: Just a theory, but I think there's a good chance the Dubs take a small step forward on offense while their defense (tops in the league a year ago) slips a bit.
A second year in Kerr's system should uncover new layers—ones the Warriors famously scrapped last season after too many turnovers marred an otherwise sterling start. On the other end, Golden State has now reached a point where it knows it can turn the proverbial switch on and off at will.
You don't win 67 games without building a little confidence. So, assured they can coast once in a while, the Warriors' remarkably consistent defensive intensity could waver.
All in all, this team is still the most talented in the league, Stephen Curry is still very much an MVP candidate, and the rest of the roster should either sustain or improve its performance from a year ago.
Barring an extremely conservative approach marked by near-constant rest for stars, Golden State should win another 60 games and enjoy title-favorite status until somebody else rips it away.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise indicated.
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