Predicting NBA Stat Leaders for Every Major Category During 2015-16 Season
It's that time of year again.
The time when the NBA's best and brightest throw up dazzling statistics that make 99 percent of the league green with envy. Except for the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks, who are already that color.
While winning a championship is the ultimate goal of any player, there's no denying the magnitude of leading the Association in one of the major statistics. Whether we're talking about points per game, three-pointers made, field-goal percentage or one of the other biggies, pacing the field cements your name in the record books forever.
Some categories will see last year's winner repeat as the champion, but others are due for a shakeup. New contenders are emerging, and some different situations will allow top contenders to jump all the way to the pole position.
Field-Goal Percentage
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Leader: DeAndre Jordan
Betting against DeAndre Jordan is a foolish idea, especially now that he's coming off three consecutive seasons leading the league in field-goal percentage. Jordan has actually made at least 60 percent of his looks during each and every campaign in his seven-year career, though he was never more accurate than in 2014-15.
Somehow, the uber-athletic big man managed to knock down 71 percent of his attempts, leaving him only slightly behind Wilt Chamberlain's 1972-73 go-round with the Los Angeles Lakers (72.7 percent) in the quest for all-time single-season supremacy.
Given the fact the Los Angeles Clippers will be running a nearly identical system to the one that put him at No. 2 on the historical leaderboard, it's within the realm of possibility that he could supplant the Hall of Famer.
Why? Because Jordan basically does nothing but dunk and put back easy shots around the hoop. Of his 615 attempts during the regular season and playoffs, a staggering 90.7 percent of them came at the rim. Plus, according to NBAMiner.com, Jordan's average shot came from 0.92 feet in 2014-15, making him the only qualified player below one.
It's tough to miss dunks, and that's just about all Jordan takes.
Runner-Up: Timofey Mozgov
Over the last few years, Tyson Chandler, Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard and Jonas Valanciunas have been the men occupying this spot. But we can expect a shift thanks to Timofey Mozgov's new role with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Though the Russian big man knocked down "only" 50.4 percent of his field-goal attempts with the Denver Nuggets, that number elevated to 59 after a midseason trade sent him to Quicken Loans Arena. Mozgov wasn't quite so effective during the playoffs, but that was largely because the never-ending stream of injuries forced him into a bigger role alongside LeBron James.
With a return to his non-featured job as a starter next to Cleveland's Big Three, Mozgov should be able to pick and choose his attempts carefully. The 29-year-old won't be asked to do much mid-range shooting, and his finishing skills around the basket have only grown better with age.
3-Pointers Made
2 of 7Leader: Stephen Curry
If betting against DeAndre Jordan in field-goal percentage is foolish, picking anyone but Stephen Curry as the three-point champion is just flat-out dumb.
While the NBA is brimming over with players capable of knocking down plenty of deep attempts, it's the Golden State Warriors point guard who has emerged as the best to ever let it fly from downtown. That's not the least bit hyperbolic, given both his proclivity for creating his own shots and his ability to serve as a catch-and-shoot marksman.
In 2012-13, Curry made 59 more long-range bombs than Ryan Anderson and everyone else in the league. One year later, he outdid fellow Splash Brother Klay Thompson by 38. Thompson finished second once again in 2014-15, this time trailing his teammate by 47 makes.
These competitions haven't even been close, and there's no reason to think Curry is due for any sort of natural regression. If anything, he has a great chance to break the single-season record for the third time in four years.
Runner-Up: Damian Lillard
Lillard has never made more than 218 three-pointers during a single season. Though he's finished in the NBA's top six each of the last three years, his best placement came in 2013-14, when he trailed only the two backcourt members of the Warriors.
But you can expect a substantial jump in 2015-16, if for no other reason than sheer opportunity.
Lillard has always been one of the league's more underrated snipers. For years, he's demonstrated a Curry-like ability to knock down deep looks off the dribble, though that skill has flown under the radar because he just didn't do it quite as well as the Golden State sharpshooter. How many know that Lillard actually broke Curry's rookie record for most treys made to open a career?
Now, he gets to put everything in his arsenal on full display as the clear-cut leader of the Portland Trail Blazers.
There's no LaMarcus Aldridge to steal touches and commandeer possessions with his exploits from the elbow. Lillard should have complete autonomy in head coach Terry Stotts' offensive schemes, and the lack of established No. 2 scoring options guarantees that he fires away often enough to be right up there with the top contenders for the three-point crown.
Count on Thompson, Kyle Korver, James Harden and all the other obvious candidates to post noteworthy seasons. But the expected increase in Lillard's volume makes him the biggest early threat to Curry's long-standing long-range supremacy.
Blocks Per Game
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Leader: Rudy Gobert
Even though Anthony Davis led the field by a substantial margin last year, he was losing ground toward the end of the regular season. That's because the Enes Kanter trade freed up more minutes for Rudy Gobert to serve as a defensive anchor for the Utah Jazz, and he used his Quetzalcoatlus wingspan to reject everything in sight.
Though Gobert finished his breakout season averaging "just" 2.3 blocks per game, he swatted away 2.6 per contest once he moved into the starting lineup for his final 29 appearances. On the year, his block percentage was a staggering 7.0, giving him the league lead among all qualified players.
"We know that if we play good defense even on a bad shooting night for us, we still have a chance to win games, and that's what we want," the French rejection specialist recently explained, also revealing that his team's goal was to limit opponents to no more than 22 points per quarter, per Jody Genessy of the Deseret News. "I'm trying to protect the rim. In some games I might block eight. Some games I might block two. If I block two, that means they do not come into the paint."
Even though he's struggled during the preseason—largely the result of a small sample size and limited energy on the heels of EuroBasket play—that's the biggest concern. If opponents dare enter the paint, no one is better at swatting away their attempts.
Only extreme fear of his presence can keep him from winning this title.
Runner-Up: Anthony Davis
It should go without saying that Anthony Davis is quite good at blocking ill-advised shots from opponents. Frankly, he's even excellent at swatting away smart looks.
Davis is still a work in progress in some facets of the defensive game, but he has every instinct you could possibly want in a shot-blocking presence. He genuinely seems to enjoy contesting everything in his vicinity, displays preternatural levels of timing and elevates remarkably quickly on second jumps.
Few players are capable of rejecting a turnaround jumper lofted up by LaMarcus Aldridge. But Davis is one of those guys, and that should say a lot.
Though we'll throw some praise toward Serge Ibaka, DeAndre Jordan, Nerlens Noel and others, this unibrowed big man is the two-time defending champion for a bunch of reasons.
Steals Per Game
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Leader: Kawhi Leonard
Kawhi Leonard's gigantic hands make it easier for him to get a fingertip on the rock while helping on a driving man or terrorizing someone in an on-ball situation. His timing just adds to that ability, since it's virtually impossible to create against him on a consistent basis.
But as Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry explained last season, Leonard's prowess in the steals category stems from more than sheer volume. He's the rare player capable of committing so many thefts without actually gambling:
"Another thing to note here is that Leonard's steals, unlike many of his peers', are hardly ever the result of defensive gambling. He's not riskily jumping into passing lanes or leaving his assignment open. His takeaways are usually a product of him playing terrific defense. That's why steals, as a metric, offer an incomplete picture of defensive skill. They can be reflections of which players gamble the most as much as symbols of who plays the most consistently great defense.
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Frankly, there's no one in the league who should feel comfortable dribbling around Leonard. It's just a bad idea to do so at any point during the 48-minute contest.
Last year was the first time he led the league in this category, but it should be the beginning of a dynastic run. This soft-spoken forward is just that good.
Runner-Up: Chris Paul
You can't mention swipes without giving Chris Paul some love.
He's actually won six of the last eight steal crowns, with the 2014-15 (Leonard) and 2009-10 (Rajon Rondo) campaigns serving as the only exceptions to his unrelenting dominance. Even during those two years, he wasn't too shabby.
Last season, Paul finished fifth throughout the league behind Leonard, Russell Westbrook, Tony Allen and Stephen Curry. That's nothing to be particularly ashamed about, and he can feel even better about what happened five years earlier. In 2009-10, he averaged 2.1 steals but played in only 45 contests. Had he remained healthy throughout the season, he was on pace for a finish behind only Rondo and Monta Ellis.
Don't expect this 30-year-old to fall too far back quite yet.
Rebounds Per Game
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Leader: DeAndre Jordan
Don't bet against the world's best rebounder.
Coming off a season in which he finished No. 2 in offensive rebounding percentage and No. 1 in defensive rebounding percentage, DeAndre Jordan is everything you could possibly want when crashing the glass. He has the requisite size (6'11", 250 lbs) to dominate on the boards, the athleticism to elevate over anyone, the timing necessary to be in the right places at the right times and teammates who are willing to defer easy opportunities to him.
Last year, he was 1.5 rebounds per game clear of the field, and that's no fluke. It takes a special player to convincingly haul in 15 boards during his average outing, and it somehow feels as if Jordan's typical number could actually continue rising as the Los Angeles Clippers defense forces even more missed shots.
During the 2014 offseason, Bleacher Report's Kelly Scaletta and I developed a rebounding metric that essentially shows how many boards a player would grab if every opportunity were contested on a perfectly average team (in terms of pace and opportunities created).
Jordan's score from the 2014-15 season was a staggering 11.7. Second place belonged to Andre Drummond, all the way back at 9.8.
Even if Drummond works toward closing the gap, this is Jordan's category to lose. And he isn't going to.
Runner-Up: Andre Drummond
Let's continue using that rebounding metric.
Jordan might be the clear-cut No. 1, but there's actually just as much separation between Drummond and the rest of the field as exists between the two top contenders. Once more based entirely on work during the 2014-15 season, this was the full top 10:
- DeAndre Jordan, 11.7 adjusted rebounds
- Andre Drummond, 9.8
- DeMarcus Cousins, 7.9
- Hassan Whiteside, 7.8
- Tyson Chandler, 7.7
- Nikola Vucevic, 7.6
- Anthony Davis, 7.3
- Zach Randolph, 7.0
- Joakim Noah, 7.0
- Dwight Howard, 7.0
It wouldn't be that surprising if any of the other elites elevated into the runner-up spot. But right now, smart money is still on the 22-year-old center from the Detroit Pistons who has already asserted himself as the league's best offensive rebounder and is only getting better as his career progresses.
Assists Per Game
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Leader: John Wall
Every year that he's been in the NBA, John Wall has improved his passing game. Even if the per-contest figures haven't shown that progression, the per-36-minute figures do:
| 2010-11 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 36.0 |
| 2011-12 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 36.9 |
| 2012-13 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 43.9 |
| 2013-14 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 40.5 |
| 2014-15 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 46.3 |
Wall is now coming off what was easily his best season as a distributor, and there's no reason to expect any sort of decline. He's an unparalleled master at finding guys spotting up on the perimeter as he uses his speed to drive into the teeth of a defense, and the pieces around him complement his skills perfectly.
A full season of Bradley Beal, an improved Otto Porter and a rejuvenated frontcourt of Nene and Marcin Gortat should ensure he hits double-digit assists during his average outing, and there may not be a single player in the league who can make a similar claim.
Runner-Up: Chris Paul
If we look at the top five contenders last year, it's easy to see Wall as the only one who maintains or improves upon his pace.
Rajon Rondo will be working in a new home with the Sacramento Kings, ceding possessions to DeMarcus Cousins and presumably losing some minutes to Darren Collison. Russell Westbrook will be rejoined by Kevin Durant, which will prevent him from controlling nearly as many possessions as he did in 2014-15. Ty Lawson is now with the Houston Rockets, where he's the clear second ball-handling fiddle to James Harden.
Chris Paul could be the only other exception, but the newfound depth of the Los Angeles Clippers should mean he's rested a bit more during the regular season. He'll still challenge double-digit dimes most nights—he's too good not to—but it won't happen quite as frequently for an organization that should be intent on keeping him healthy for a deep postseason run.
Don't expect anyone else to challenge Wall. The last person to make the jump from outside the top five to the No. 1 spot was Andre Miller during the 2001-02 season, which he spent with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Before that, you have to go to Mark Jackson in 1996-97 or John Stockton in 1987-88.
Points Per Game
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Leader: Damian Lillard
Sure, Damian Lillard finished No. 13 in the scoring race last season, averaging 21 points per game for the Portland Trail Blazers.
But this is an entirely different squad in Rip City, one that will require monstrous efforts from the All-Star point guard in order to stay even remotely competitive. LaMarcus Aldridge is gone, joining the San Antonio Spurs to hunt a ring. Wesley Matthews is now playing for the Dallas Mavericks, while Robin Lopez and Nicolas Batum are suiting up for the New York Knicks and Charlotte Hornets, respectively.
Lillard is the only returning starter, and he's now the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 option on offense. There is literally no other established scorer based on last year's per-game averages from every important rotation member (using Rotoworld.com's current depth charts):
| Lillard (21.0) | McCollum (6.8) | Aminu (5.6) | Leonard (5.9) | Plumlee (8.7) |
| Frazier (5.2) | Henderson (12.1) | Harkless (3.5) | Davis (8.3) | Kaman (8.6) |
| Pressey (3.5) | Crabbe (3.3) | Vonleh (3.3) |
It's rare that a scorer as talented as Lillard gets thrust into a situation like this—one perfectly conducive for chasing a scoring title. In many ways, it's an extreme version of what happened with Russell Westbrook last season, when Kevin Durant went down and opened the door for the point guard to lead the league.
Will Lillard be efficient? Probably not, since he'll be gunning more often than typically acceptable to make up for the lackluster scorers surrounding him on this roster. Will he help the Blazers avoid falling down near the bottom of the Western Conference? Again, probably not.
But there's a serious chance he could become the first player other than Durant to score at least 30 points per game since Dwyane Wade did for the Miami Heat in 2008-09.
Runner-Up: Anthony Davis
Westbrook and Durant should be playing together and keeping each other from posting truly insane point totals. We've seen before that the latter can win a scoring title while his point guard is healthy, but that's more questionable now that Westbrook is coming off his own title and Durant is bouncing back from a nasty foot injury. Throw in Enes Kanter, Dion Waiters and the rest of this Oklahoma City Thunder team, and both should fall a bit shy of the No. 2 spot.
Ditto for James Harden with Ty Lawson in town and Dwight Howard raring to go. LeBron James' candidacy is also in question now that he's receiving preseason back injections and should see minute restrictions to keep him healthy for the playoffs.
This is Anthony Davis' spot to lose, especially now that he's coached by Alvin Gentry.
The new uptempo system in New Orleans—per RealGM.com, the Pelicans have used 102 possessions per 48 minutes during the preseason after finishing in the bottom third of the NBA throughout each season of the Monty Williams era—will help give Davis more chances to score, and it's much more likely that he gets fed the ball often. Inexplicably, far too many possessions went by last year in which Davis never got his hands on the rock.
This isn't a knock on Durant, Westbrook or Harden so much as it's an expectation that the NOLA big man is about to explode.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter:@fromal09.
