Texans vs. Panthers: Full Carolina Game Preview
The Carolina Panthers (1-0) look to build on the momentum of their Week 1 victory when opening their home slate against the Houston Texans (0-1) this Sunday.
It’s been a long time since the Panthers lost a regular-season game. Their last five, stretching back into 2014, have all resulted in victories. Only the Dallas Cowboys can make that claim. They’ve also been pretty good at home recently—they haven’t lost in a home game that counts since November 16, 2014.
The Texans, on the other hand, are tougher opponents on paper than Jacksonville was last week. They finished last year at 9-7 and were a robust 5-2 after their bye week.
They have a stellar defense, led by the likes of J.J. Watt and Vince Wilfork up front, and a top-notch secondary with Jonathan Joseph, Kareem Jackson and Rahim Moore. That defense, especially against the pass, keeps them competitive against any team in football.
What they also have, however, is a quarterback controversy. Starting quarterback Brian Hoyer was pulled last week, with backup Ryan Mallett coming in and leading the team on multiple scoring drives in a losing effort.
There’s an old adage in the NFL: If you have two starting quarterbacks, you don’t have one.
What we have here, then, is a matchup of strengths against weaknesses. Houston’s ferocious, Watt-led pass rush will test the Panthers offensive line. Carolina’s swarming, physical defense will make life difficult for whomever Houston starts on Sunday. It should be an entertaining, defensive slugfest in Charlotte.
Carolina started the week as 4.5-point favorites, according to Odds Shark, but have fallen to just a field-goal advantage as the week has gone on. When you remember that the Texans had a better record than the Panthers did last season, it’s reasonable to put them close together, with home-field advantage providing the difference. The question marks over the status of key players like Luke Kuechly could also dampen Carolina’s advantage entering the game.
Still, if Carolina considers itself a playoff team—and, considering the performance of the NFC South in general last week, there’s no reason to believe Carolina doesn’t have as good a chance as anyone—this is really a game they need to win. The Texans are not a pushover by any means, but Carolina’s getting them, at home, in a time of turmoil for their offense.
Can Carolina take advantage and start off 2-0 for the second straight season? We’ll find out this Sunday.
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS, with Greg Gumbel and Trent Green on the call.
Week 1 Results and Recap
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The Panthers handled the Jaguars to the tune of 20-9 behind a strong defensive performance. Josh Norman caused two turnovers, including an interception return for a touchdown, in a strong defensive effort. In the second half alone, the Panthers held the Jaguars to just 75 yards of total offense, intercepted two Blake Bortles passes and recorded four sacks.
The offense did just enough to hold up their end of the bargain. It managed just 263 total yards but put together an impressive eight-minute, 15-play scoring drive to bleed the clock dry in the fourth quarter to hang on to the victory.
Jacksonville, needing a fourth-quarter comeback, was limited to just 16 offensive plays in the fourth quarter thanks to the defense’s ball-hawking ways and the offense’s clock-killing drives. This will probably be the Panthers’ primary winning strategy this season.
The Texans, meanwhile, lost to the Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 27-20, as Alex Smith threw for three touchdown passes, giving the Chiefs a big lead which they were able to hold on to on a mistake-filled day for Houston. The Texans showed some life late when Mallett took over for Hoyer and led the team to 10 points to make it a one-score game, but the Chiefs’ initial lead was too much for the Texans to overcome.
NFC South Standings
| Team | Record | Pct | Tiebreakers |
| Atlanta Falcons | 1-0 | 1.000 | Ahead of Carolina via conference record (1-0 vs 0-0) |
| Carolina Panthers | 1-0 | 1.000 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0-1 | .000 | Ahead of New Orleans via conference record (0-0 vs 0-1) |
| New Orleans Saints | 0-1 | .000 |
The NFC South went 2-2 last week, with Atlanta upsetting Philadelphia, New Orleans losing on the road to Arizona and Tampa Bay being blown out by Tennessee.
(Unofficial) NFC Wild-Card Standings
| Team | Record | Pct. | Tiebreakers |
| Arizona Cardinals | 1-0 | 1.000 | Ahead of San Francisco via conference points scored/allowed (rank 7 vs 12) Ahead of Carolina via conference record (1-0 vs 0-0) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1-0 | 1.000 | Ahead of Carolina via conference record (1-0 vs 0-0) |
| Carolina Panthers | 1-0 | 1.000 | |
| Washington Redskins | 0-1 | .000 | Ahead of NY Giants via divisional record (0-0 vs 0-1) Ahead of Philadelphia and Seattle via conference record Ahead of Tampa Bay and Detroit via conference points scored/allowed |
| Detroit Lions | 0-1 | .000 | Ahead of Chicago via divisional record (0-0 vs 0-1) Ahead of Minnesota, Philadelphia and Seattle via conference record Ahead of Tampa Bay via conference points scored/allowed (rank 19 vs 30) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0-1 | .000 | Ahead of New Orleans, Seattle, Minnesota and Philadelphia via conference record |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0-1 | .000 | Ahead of NY Giants via divisional record (0-0 vs 0-1) Ahead of Minnesota and New Orleans via conference points scored/allowed Ahead of Seattle via league points scored/allowed (rank 34 vs 36) |
| New York Giants | 0-1 | .000 | Ahead of Minnesota and New Orleans via conference points scored/allowed Ahead of Seattle via league points scored/allowed (rank 34 vs 36) |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0-1 | .000 | Ahead of Minnesota and New Orleans via conference points scored/allowed |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0-1 | .000 | Ahead of Chicago via divisional record (0-0 vs 0-1) Ahead of New Orleans via conference points scored/allowed (rank 21 vs 24) |
| Chicago Bears | 0-1 | .000 | Ahead of New Orleans via conference points scored/allowed (rank 21 vs 24) |
| New Orleans Saints | 0-1 | .000 |
It’s far too early to pay attention to wild-card standings, as the obscure “points scored/points allowed” tiebreaker would come into play if the NFL were forced to make distinctions at the moment. That's why they don't make such distinctions at the moment; the preceding list was calculated unofficially using the NFL's tiebreaker rules.
In addition, some teams, like Carolina, haven’t even had a chance to play an opponent in the same conference, much less one in the same division.
Nevertheless, as it stands now, Carolina would be on the outside looking in for the playoffs, thanks to their lack of victories against teams in the NFC.
News and Notes
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Houston Texans to Start Ryan Mallett over Brian Hoyer
According to ESPN, the Texans have informed Mallett that he will take over the starting job for this week’s matchup against Carolina. Coach Bill O’Brien had previously said that he would not make the starter public until Sunday.
Hoyer, who came over as a free agent from Cleveland, won the starting job in preseason in an open battle against Mallett. This preseason, Mallett went 24-of-37 for 190 yards and a touchdown and a quarterback rating of 86.5. Hoyer was 16-of-26 for 201 yards and a touchdown, with a quarterback rating of 98.4. That’s not much room between them, though Hoyer had a slight edge.
That was not the case last Sunday, however. Hoyer was 18-of-34 for 236 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception. Mallet then came in and led two scoring drives, going 8-of-13 for 98 yards and a touchdown himself.
Mallet didn't exactly outplay Hoyer on Sunday, but this is a really sudden move. Hoyer wasn’t terrible by any stretch of the imagination. Hoyer actually had some success on medium-length passes, completing 10 of his 13 targets 10-19 yards down the field for a total of 179 yards, according to Pro Football Focus.
Yes, his turnovers came at the worst possible times—his fumble and interception came with the Texans backed up, leading to 14 easy points for Kansas City. Yes, Mallet came in and gave the Texans a spark.
But presumably, the team thought Hoyer was better than Mallet after having an entire offseason to evaluate them. After all that, three subpar but not disastrous quarters are enough to swap quarterbacks? That’s a bizarre choice.
We knew Hoyer would be under question thanks to the Texans' Hard Knocks show. Hoyer was told explicitly that the job wasn’t going to be his automatically the whole season: "If things aren’t going very well—look, we’re not on a short leash here, but look, we’re not going to, like, sit there and let it go like eight games of not being very good. You need to be really ready to go.”
Apparently, three quarters is a long enough leash for O’Brien.
Ron Rivera: Luke Kuechly “Doesn’t Need to Practice”
Luke Kuechly is still in the concussion protocol after suffering a head injury against Jacksonville last Sunday. Normally, Ron Rivera doesn’t suit players up if they haven’t practiced, but Luke Kuechly is no normal player, as Rivera made clear via ESPN:
"Luke doesn’t need to practice, I promise you that much right now. He’s a smart football player. He understands and knows the game.
To be able to play effectively, to play to his ability, he probably doesn’t need to practice. To play as a great, great, great player, yeah, he probably needs to practice.
"
A player as good as Kuechly playing to his ability, even if’s not as a “great, great, great” player, is a step up over A.J. Klein at middle linebacker, for sure, but it’s not fully the Panthers’ decision whether Kuechly will play or not. He still needs to be cleared by an independent physician, which likely won’t happen until Friday at the earliest.
To Rivera’s credit, he wouldn’t guarantee Kuechly would play even if he were to be cleared: “No conjecture would be fair. This is serious. We’ve just got to follow the protocol. To guess or assume would be unfair."
Head injuries are frightening things, and the Panthers would much rather be without Kuechly for one game now than potentially lose him for multiple games later. There's never a health risk resting a player an extra week. Still, fingers will be crossed that he’ll be ready to play come Sunday—it will be a race against time, thanks to the concussion protocol.
Greg Olsen Not Sweating Lack of Targets
Somewhat surprisingly, Greg Olsen was only targeted three times against Jacksonville. His 11 yards were the fewest he’s had for the Panthers since 2011.
However, Olsen’s not worrying about after just one game, according to Jonathan Jones of the Charlotte Observer:
"Sometimes you run good routes and things open up. [Jerricho Cotchery] scored a touchdown on that. It’s all how the thing goes together. It’s no different than when I would catch 10 balls last year. We don’t set out to try and get one guy the ball. That’s not our offense. That’s not what we do.
"
Those are fairly easy things to say after a win, but Olsen has always been fairly even-keel about his usage in the offense. He had some quiet days last season, too, on his way to a 1,000-yard receiving season.
There were three games last year when he only received three targets: against Seattle, Cleveland and Atlanta. Carolina actually won two of those games as well. It’s often as much a matter of how the game is going as much as anything else—when the Panthers are winning, they can run the ball more and don’t have to force it to Olsen as much.
Of course, with the team only generating 263 total offensive yards last week, maybe looking for their stud tight end once or twice more often might be a good basic strategy. Still, there’s nothing to be overly concerned about after one quiet week from Olsen, especially in a win.
Injuries
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Both Carolina and Houston are dealing with a number of notable injuries leading up to this game, even when you ignore players on injured reserve like Kelvin Benjamin.
Panthers Injuries
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Wed. Practice |
| Wes Horton | DE | Shoulder | Limited |
| Star Lotulelei | DT | Foot | Limited |
| Jonathan Stewart | RB | Knee | None |
| Richie Brockel | TE | Shoulder | None |
| Nate Chandler | OT | Knee | None |
| Daryl Williams | OT | Knee | None |
| Dwan Edwards | DT | Groin | None |
| Luke Kuechly | LB | Concussion | None |
- Wes Horton is a newcomer on the injury list, as he was limited on Wednesday with an injured shoulder. The Panthers haven’t said much about his injury, but he was able to go through practice on at least a limited basis, so expect him to continue in his reserve role on Sunday. Mario Addison should get more snaps if he can’t go.
- Star Lotulelei has returned to practice, which has to give Panthers fans a sigh of relief. He’s still recovering from a stress reaction in his right foot, but this is the first time he’s been able to be on the field in a month. He’s likely still questionable for Sunday’s game, but he’s on his way back. If he misses another week, the Panthers will again call upon Kyle Love and Colin Cole.
- Jonathan Stewart essentially just had a maintenance day on his knee, according to CBS. With his injury history, there is no need to rush him back to action. Cameron Artis-Payne and Fozzy Whittaker remain his backups if this turns out to be more.
- Richie Brockel remains sidelined with that sprained shoulder he suffered against Miami; he’ll likely miss another week. Brandon Williams will be the third tight end.
- Nate Chandler remains sidelined with his bad knee after missing the Jacksonville game, and it’s not looking good for his chances to play.
- The other backup tackle, Daryl Williams, sprained his MCL against Jacksonville, according to Ian Rapoport. That would leave Amini Silatolu coming off the bench should anything happen to the starters—that’s an area to watch out for this week.
- Dwan Edwards “could have practiced," according to Ron Rivera, via Bryan Strickland of the team's official site, so he’ll be part of that rotation if Lotulelei can’t go. It will basically be a rest day for the veteran.
- Finally, and most importantly, Luke Kuechly is still in the concussion protocol after his frightening hit on Sunday. It’s going to be tight for his chances to play—he has to clear several more steps before he’s able to legally be in a game, which takes time. He'll likely be unavailable for this one, which would mean A.J. Klein would probably get the start.
Texans Injuries
| Player | Pos. | Injury | Wed. Practice |
| Christian Covington | NT | Shoulder | Full |
| Carlos Thompson | OLB | Concussion | Full |
| Kevin Johnson | CB | Thigh | Full |
| Nate Washington | WR | Abdominal | Limited |
| Jeff Adams | G/T | Abdominal | Limited |
| Arian Foster | RB | Groin | None |
| Duane Brown | OT | Hand | None |
| Xavier Su'a-Filo | OG | Calf | None |
| Mike Mohamed | ILB | Calf | None |
| Lonnie Ballentine | S | Knee | None |
- Sixth-round rookie Christian Covington was a surprise name on the injury report this week. There’s no information on his shoulder injury, and he should continue to be a non-factor this week after practicing in full.
- Carlos Thompson missed last week’s game with a concussion but looks to be on pace to be part of the rotation at outside linebacker this Sunday, though his snaps will be limited thanks to Jadeveon Clowney’s return.
- First-round pick Kevin Johnson has a bruised quad muscle but played well in his first NFL game and should be good to go on Sunday.
- Nate Washington must have been banged up late against Kansas City, but he’s the current iron man at wide receiver, starting 145 consecutive regular-season games. He should start and be fine, with Cecil Shorts being next in line if he’s banged up.
- Jeff Adams has been the starting left guard in Xavier Su’a-Filo’s absence. He’ll likely get the start again, despite his minor abdominal injury. This is not necessarily a plus for Houston.
- Arian Foster remains sidelined from August groin surgery and is nowhere close to returning yet. Alfred Blue remains the starting running back until he returns.
- Duane Brown has a broken thumb, though he played last week. Coach Bill O’Brien said he will be a “game-time decision” on Sunday. His normal backup would be Jeff Adams, but he’s injured and starting at guard for the injured Su’a-Filo. That might mean undrafted free agent Kendall Lamm would get his first NFL start.
- Xavier Su’a-Filo is not expected back from his injured calf this week, according to Bill O’Brien (h/t Aaron Wilson). Jeff Adams will get the start again, assuming he’s healthy.
- Mike Muhammad is still sidelined from his calf injury, according to Aaron Wilson of the Chronicle. He’ll continue to be replaced by Akeem Dent and Justin Tuggle.
- Lonnie Ballentine had his knee scoped on Monday, according to Wilson, so he won’t be playing.
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Key Matchups
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LT Michael Oher vs. DE J.J. Watt
You don’t really stop J.J. Watt; you can only really hope to contain him. Watt has picked up a sack in his last six games, the second-longest active streak in the NFL.
It’s worse than that, though—he’s actually picked up 13 sacks in those six games, averaging twice per contest. He isn’t just the best player at his position; there is no other position in football with a bigger gap than that from Watt to the next-best lineman in the game.
Michael Oher has played against the Texans five times in his career, and things haven’t exactly gone swimmingly. While not all of his action has come against Watt, who moves all over the defensive line based on the situation, this won’t be their first matchup.
According to Pro Football Focus, in the three matchups Oher has had against the Texans since 2012, Oher has allowed three sacks, two quarterback hits and eight quarterback hurries for a total of 13 pressures. The last two matchups came at the less crucial right tackle position as well, so he’s in a much more difficult situation this week.
Last week, PFF had Oher giving up four quarterback pressures, including two sacks. They had Watt racking up seven quarterback pressures, including two sacks. In short, this is a mismatch favoring Watt.
Oher doesn’t need to outperform Watt; he just needs to do well enough that Newton is not running for his life on every single play. If Watt consistently and regularly beats Oher, as well as the rest of the Panthers offensive line, it will be a long day.
DL Charles Johnson and Kawann Short vs. OL Derek Newton and Brandon Brooks
Right tackle Derek Newton had a very strong season last year but got this season off on the wrong foot. Struggling with an All-Pro in Justin Houston, Newton allowed five hurries and a sack, according to PFF. Brooks, at right guard, also allowed a couple of sacks, so they’re both coming off borderline weeks.
That plays right into one of Carolina’s strengths, as well as the strength of the defensive line. With Star Lotulelei still questionable, the interior of the line is anchored by Kawann Short, while Charles Johnson bounced back from his injuries that cost him the entire preseason, picking up a sack and playing strong against the run last week.
The best way to disrupt a team that can’t decide on a quarterback is to put pressure on that QB. A big day by Johnson and Short would go a long way toward making Ryan Mallet’s start less than ideal for Houston.
CB Josh Norman vs. WR DeAndre Hopkins
Josh Norman is coming off arguably the best day of his career. He forced two turnovers, had five tackles and held his pass targets to 15 yards receiving on the day, according to PFF. It’s the sort of performance you need from your top cornerback.
DeAndre Hopkins is coming off a fairly normal day in his career. Hopkins caught nine passes for 98 yards and a pair of touchdowns, lining up both in the slot and on the outside. Hopkins had over 1,200 yards receiving last season and is a borderline Pro Bowl-type player, even if he’s never actually been voted into the game.
With Mallet making only his third career start, he’ll be looking for his top receiver early and often. If Norman can have another day like he did against Jacksonville, it’s going to significantly dampen Houston’s offensive potential.
Matchup X-Factors
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Panthers X-Factor: LB Thomas Davis
If Luke Kuechly does miss Sunday’s game, Thomas Davis is going to have to be the leader and heart of the Panthers defense against Houston. Davis had a very solid day against Jacksonville, picking off a Blake Bortles pass to end Jacksonville’s comeback attempt and recording tackle after tackle after tackle.
Davis will be tasked with stopping tight ends and running backs in the passing game, two targets which Ryan Mallett likes a lot. Of his 72 pass attempts for the Texans last season, 19 went to his tight ends and running backs—they are a nice safety blanket when the offensive line has issues. Taking away that safety blanket would go a long way toward shutting down that passing attack.
Texans X-Factor: OLB Jadeveon Clowney
2014’s top overall pick missed most of his rookie season, tearing his meniscus in the very first game of the year. He’s back now, which is like adding a first-round pick to an already very good defense.
Pro Football Focus had this to say about his 2015 debut:
"He isn’t quite yet the generational talent he was billed to be, but ROLB Jadeveon Clowney (+1.2) had a solid day despite a limited snap count that saw 12 Houston defenders on the field more than he was. He wasn’t much of a factor rushing the passer, recording a single pressure, yet his run defense was strong enough to overcome that as he tallied three defensive stops in just 30 total snaps. There’s little reason to think he won’t improve as he finds his stride this season and his snap count rises.
"
If Clowney can get plenty of game action and solid run defense, shutting down Jonathan Stewart, it’s not really clear how the Panthers will generate offense. They need a solid running game to keep the offense on track, and Clowney might be able to derail that.
Prediction: Panthers 24, Texans 13
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At the end of the day, despite the ferociousness reputation of the Texans defense, the Panthers should take this one fairly easily.
When you have an offense that is shuffling its quarterback after less than a full game, you have an offense that has no faith whatsoever in its ability to pass the ball.
Yes, Ryan Mallett got the team closer toward the end of the game, but the Chiefs were in a prevent defense, just letting time run out. Put Mallet against the full blunt of Carolina’s defense, and it's difficult to see him having the same amount of success.
The offensive line of Houston has too many question marks, allowing five sacks last week. It could be missing two starters in Duane Brown and Xavier Su’a-Filo as well. That’s just creating leaks for the pass rush to disrupt the timing of Houston’s offense, throwing the Texans off their stride and generally getting them off schedule.
Normally, if you have an issue passing the ball, you lean heavily on your running back—but Arian Foster won’t be in this game, leaving them leaning on backup Alfred Blue. Blue’s a solid player, but there’s a reason Foster is the starter—he’s just a more special talent. With the passing game disrupted, Blue is going to find plenty of resistance running the ball in this one.
As for that defense, J.J. Watt is undeniably amazing, but there is, fortunately, only one of him. The other 10 members of that Texans defense have to play as well, and they allowed 340 yards of total offense to Kansas City, who were actively trying to just run clock for most of the second half.
Alex Smith was 22-of-33 for 243 yards and three touchdowns against the Texans secondary. Smith is a solid quarterback but pretty much the definition of "league average." Newton is an equivalent passer, plus he has a rushing ability that Smith hasn’t shown since college. He should be able to at least match if not exceed Smith’s numbers, especially if Devin Funchess is placed in the starting lineup.
At the end of the day, expect the Panthers to win and earn their second consecutive 2-0 start. Frankly, any other result would have to be a massive disappointment for a team that considers itself playoff-bound.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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