New England Patriots: Early 2015 Awards Predictions

Handing out NFL awards in July is like an over-the-top talk-show segment.  It's preposterous and generally ridiculous but also entertaining and informative if viewed through the right perspective.  There isn't any new game tape or camp reports for us to break down during the dog days of the offseason, hence the "state-of-the-franchise" type of articles that percolate through the interwebs this time of year.

Truthfully, no amount of work could have predicted that Malcolm Butler, Brandon LaFell and Duron Harmon would make arguably three of the five biggest plays during the New England Patriots' championship run last season. 

On the other hand, it was certainly possible to predict the All-Pro campaigns (Rob Gronkowski, Darrelle Revis) and breakout stars (Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower) that put the Super Bowl within reach in the first place.

So while we can't know who will be in position to make New England's biggest plays of the 2015 season, we can forecast who will find themselves in the playmaking role most often.  With that in mind, here are some midsummer predictions on which Patriots will take home these conventional and unconventional "awards" for the 2015 season.

Comeback Player of the Year: Jerod Mayo

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The real Comeback Player of the Year Award almost universally goes to players who suffered major injuries in the preceding season (Rob Gronkowski, Peyton Manning) or those who have rebounded from general ineffectiveness (Philip Rivers, Chad Pennington). 

This year's Patriots squad doesn't have many candidates falling under those umbrellas, especially at the glamorous offensive skill position spots that usually take this award.

However, eighth-year linebacker Jerod Mayo stands out as the obvious candidate here. 

A debilitating Week 6 injury has ended Mayo's season each of the past two years; after missing five games over his first five seasons, Mayo has quadrupled that figure in his last two campaigns.  The second-longest tenured player on New England's roster might not even be around today if he hadn't agreed to a pay cut that slashed his cap hit by over $4 million.

Nevertheless, with better health luck, Mayo should play a more important role than many might expect, even after Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower thrived in his absence last season. 

Though the Pats became a 4-2-5 defense after Mayo's injury, all three starting linebackers were playing heavy snaps in the early part of the season, per Football Outsiders' snap counts. 

There will be certain game plans where the Patriots revert to more sub-package personnel (Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles, etc.), but the coverage abilities of New England's linebackers enabled them to stick in base personnel and keep their best 11 on the field early.

And with Hightower recovering from major offseason shoulder surgery (more on that later), there's no guarantee the Patriots will enjoy that luxury in the first place.  Ranginess and a high playing IQ have defined Mayo's game, and if his knee injury hasn't sapped too much of that skill set, the Pats' longtime defensive captain could again serve as a linchpin in the middle.

Most Improved Player: Nate Solder

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There wasn't much controversy last April when the Patriots picked up their fifth-year option on 2011 first-rounder Nate Solder, which will pay him $7.4 million this season.  At the time, Solder was widely viewed as a budding Pro Bowl-level left tackle who would be a fixture on Tom Brady's blind side for the rest of No. 12's career.

Fifteen months later, however, plenty have soured on Solder after an erratic 2014 campaign.  Many fans remember the interior instability that plagued New England's offensive line early last season, but Solder's struggles against edge-rushers exacerbated those problems.  Though he never lost his starting job, there were instances of Solder getting benched mid-game.

However, people also forget that the light eventually went on for Solder in pass protection. 

According to Pro Football Focus, Solder's 96.1 percent pass-blocking efficiency represented an improvement on the 95.3 percent mark he posted each of his first two years as a starter in 2012 and 2013.  Last year's mark placed him in a tie for 15th among offensive tackles, ahead of more ballyhooed names like Lane Johnson, Ryan Clady and D'Brickashaw Ferguson.

All this came as Solder underwent surgery for testicular cancer last spring, a revelation that came out this offseason. 

With a normal offseason and no early-season dip, Solder should see his pass-protection numbers vault into the top 10 at the position.  Part of that certainly stems from New England's quick timing-based passing system, but the big, athletic tackle remains a likely long-term solution whom the front office should consider locking up before he hits free agency next spring.

Least Improved Player: Patrick Chung

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In a star-studded secondary, Patrick Chung was the unheralded Ringo figure who allowed the Lennon and McCartney types to keep the music humming.  Chung's successful second Foxborough stint was a surprise given how unceremoniously his first had ended, and the Pats rewarded him last January with a three-year, $8.2 million extension.

Realistically, though, Chung was more of an average safety in a limited role that played to his strengths.

Though he provided his typically stout run defense in the box, Chung's tight end coverage regressed late in the season (re-watch the Green Bay Packers and second New York Jets contests if you don't believe me).  Based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Patriots ended up being the third-worst team covering tight ends, a responsibility that fell in Chung's domain.

Obviously, he's not solely responsible for that weakness, but it does highlight how Chung could struggle with increased coverage responsibilities this season.  The Patriots are likely to need their safeties to provide more help on the back end this year, since the corners don't appear equipped to play the man-free coverages the defense used regularly in 2014.

Hey, no one said we'd be handing out participation ribbons at this impromptu awards ceremony.  Chung may hold the pole position on a starting safety job given his experience, but the coaching staff might find better fits on the roster to play next to Devin McCourty.

Rookie of the Year: Tre' Jackson

First-round defensive tackle Malcom Brown would be the expected choice here, but Brown faces significantly more competition at his position than Tre' Jackson does at guard.  Though Brown possesses versatility and a three-down skill set, his rookie year might be spent playing in base packages while Dominique Easley and Chandler Jones get most of the interior pass-rushing snaps.

Conversely, Jackson looks like a plug-and-play prospect at New England's thinnest offensive position.  Before concerns about his knee sent him tumbling to the fourth round, both NFL.com and NFL Draft Scout projected him as a Round 2-3 prospect.  When pairing the injury with the conditioning questions that tailed Jackson throughout his senior season, it's not surprising that many teams shied away from the risk.

Still, the knee hasn't shown any lingering trouble thus far, with Jackson participating in all the offseason workouts while wearing a brace over his knee, per ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss.  Head coach Bill Belichick might think about converting a natural tackle like Marcus Cannon or Cameron Fleming to guard, if only to add to the competition, but both struggled in their limited exposures at guard last season.

Jackson's risk becomes easier to stomach when faced with alternatives like Jordan Devey and Josh Kline. 

He might be a more surefire bet if he had played left guard instead of right guard in college, as Ryan Wendell was steady on the right side last season.  But Wendell was moved out of position to that spot anyways, so regardless of which side Jackson plays on, there's a solid chance the Patriots could give heavy snaps to a fourth-round offensive lineman from Florida State for the second consecutive year.

Biggest Bust: Dont'a Hightower

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This is a tough choice to make, as no one likes to think that an important contributor won't carry his fair share of the load.  But it happens every year anyways, with injuries often serving as the primary culprit.

It's been known that Dont'a Hightower's Week 1 availability is in jeopardy following major shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum.  With the surgery occurring in mid-February, the reported six- to seven-month timetable would leave Hightower ready to go in mid-August or mid-September.

The more pressing question, however, is where Hightower's snaps will come when he is at full speed.  As previously mentioned, Jerod Mayo was a three-down player before his knee injury last season.  The Patriots could obviously choose to scale back Mayo's snaps, of course, but his intelligence and versatility is always a useful asset to have on the field regardless of the situation.

Ideally, Hightower would spend more snaps on the edge rushing the passer.  He demonstrated promise as a blitzer last season, ranking seventh among inside linebackers in PFF's pass-rushing productivity metric.  I noted before the 2014 season that increased pass-rushing opportunities could've been a possibility given Hightower's productivity at Alabama, and that usage certainly played a role in his breakout campaign.

But given the glut of edge-rushers on New England's roster, it's not clear how Hightower can carve out a sub-package role there.  It feels dangerous to even suggest tinkering with Hightower's current usage given how well he played in 2014.  Nevertheless, Hightower's own limitations this offseason could put him behind the eight ball in the Patriots' deep front seven.

Defensive MVP: Jamie Collins

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Hightower's 2015 outlook may be cloudy, but his partner in crime from last season continues to draw mainstream attention as one of the game's underrated stars.  Once a toolsy but raw prospect from a losing FBS program, Jamie Collins is now arguably the most important player on the Patriots defense.

That might feel slightly presumptuous given that 2014 was Collins' first season as a full-time starter.  Despite the lack of an established pedigree, Collins also wore the most hats for the Patriots defense last season, and he did so with excellent efficiency. 

In each of PFF's four inside linebacker stats—pass-rushing productivity, run-stop percentage, tackling efficiency and coverage snaps per reception—Collins finished in the top third at his position. 

With good health, Collins feels like the only member of the front seven who is a sure bet to eclipse 1,000 defensive snaps next season.  New England has a lot of defensive linemen and linebackers capable of excelling in one particular area, but Collins is the fulcrum in the middle around which everything will revolve.

There's no point in choosing a team MVP—Tom Brady is the unanimous choice, while Rob Gronkowski is an equally easy choice in the non-Brady category.  Behind those two, however, Collins could reasonably state a case as the next most indispensable player on the roster.

Top Breakout: James White

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The last award probably has our widest range of candidates.  The whole point of a breakout candidate centers on a player who exceeds expectations, so we shouldn't necessarily see this winner coming.  However, if only because of the system, second-year running back James White is as logical a candidate as any.

The Patriots' passing-game identity has evolved through numerous renditions over the years, but one constant has been the importance of the passing back.  Just as the slot receiver has produced steady overachievers like Troy Brown, Wes Welker and Julian Edelman, the passing back role has elevated the profiles of Kevin Faulk, Danny Woodhead and Shane Vereen during the Brady-Belichick era.

According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, the Pats have had a running back exceed 30 catches and 300 receiving yards in 12 of 15 seasons under Belichick.  Free-agent signing Travaris Cadet came four yards short of reaching that threshold last season, and he is probably more advanced as a receiver today than White. 

Critically, though, his ex-coach Sean Payton labeled Cadet's struggles in pass protection as a key issue, which could be a deal-breaker for playing time.

As they did with Vereen during his first two seasons, the Pats will keep a passing back on the bench if Cadet can't protect the quarterback.  Either he or White seems likely to become an integral cog in the offense this season, and the former fourth-round pick has the current leg up given his extra year in the system.