NBA Draft 2015: Ranking the 10 Most Overrated Prospects in the 2015 Class
The 2015 NBA draft has come and gone, and it’s now time to evaluate the most overrated prospects in the class. Will Duke standout Jahlil Okafor rise to the top of this list or will it be dominated by unproven overseas talent?
Although every team likely feels confident in the players it selected, the sad reality is that they won't all pan out. Some will be All-Stars and starters, while others will wind up being role players and busts.
That isn’t to say that everyone on this list will be a bust; the ranking has more to do with the player’s overall value compared with where he was drafted.
Everything has to be taken into account when assessing how a player should have been rated. This includes his statistics, skill set, draft position and individual circumstances.
Unfortunately this list wasn't big enough for all of the candidates to be listed. Some honorable mentions include Frank Kaminsky, Kelly Oubre and Tyus Jones.
There will likely be some diamonds in the rough in this draft class and certainly some flops, so let’s get started with the 10 most overrated prospects in the 2015 class.
10. Trey Lyles, Utah Jazz
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One can make a case that Trey Lyles was playing out of position at Kentucky and was overshadowed by Karl-Anthony Towns and Willie Cauley-Stein.
No matter his situation, Lyles showed flashes that he could do a plethora of things on the court. He just didn’t display his talents on a wide enough scale to warrant being taken with the No. 12 pick by the Utah Jazz.
Since he rarely played a traditional power forward at Kentucky, he will have to adjust to not only playing in the NBA but also learning how to perfect a position. At his highest potential, Lyles could become a player like Josh Smith, whose versatility and defensive prowess make him special.
Lyles has an impressive skill set, but he’s raw and will need a lot of seasoning. The Jazz also appear to be set down low with Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert, which makes the Lyles selection a little more curious.
9. Stanley Johnson, Detroit Pistons
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The Detroit Pistons have needed help on the wing for quite some time and seem to have found their man in Arizona’s Stanley Johnson.
Still, they have swung and missed at the small forward position in recent drafts, with Kyle Singler and Austin Daye eventually becoming busts.
Johnson showed that he could shoot the three-pointer as a freshman (37.1 percent), something the Pistons desperately need. In Arizona’s final three games of the NCAA tournament, however, he averaged just 7.3 points on 26.9 percent shooting.
Although small forward was a need for the Pistons, free agency might open up a new hole in the rotation. Team president Stan Van Gundy is reportedly "not entirely optimistic" about retaining free agent Greg Monroe, according to the Associated Press.
Since it appears to be a real possibility that the Pistons will lose Monroe as a free agent, perhaps Frank Kaminsky would have been a better pick at No. 8. He would have been a versatile stretch 4 next to center Andre Drummond, and the duo would have been dominant on the glass.
8. Sam Dekker, Houston Rockets
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Wisconsin’s Sam Dekker averaged 19.2 points per game in the NCAA tournament, which likely sent his draft stock climbing.
Could he be a player who performs well just in big spots or gets hot at the right time?
That’s the question that the Houston Rockets will soon find the answer to.
Although Dekker shot 41.7 percent from behind the arc in the tournament, his season average from three-point range was just 33.1 percent. It’ll be interesting to see how he translates to the NBA, as he is 6’9” but doesn’t necessarily exhibit overpowering strength or impressive quickness.
At the very least, he has a big fan in Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Before the draft, Rodgers tweeted, "Gonna be a great night for a couple buddies @dekker and @FSKPart3, I'm guessing teams that pass on them could regret it down the line."
7. Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver Nuggets
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Emmanuel Mudiay was the fourth-leading scorer for the Guangdong Southern Tigers of the Chinese Basketball Association last season. The top two? Yi Jianlian and Will Bynum, who were mediocre (at best) in the NBA.
That immediately discredits all of his statistics.
In fact, Mudiay’s stat line (18.0 PPG, 5.9 ASG) is nearly identical to that of Stephon Marbury, who was finished in the NBA in 2008-09 but has since become a rock star for the Beijing Ducks.
There’s a lot to like about Mudiay, who actually committed to SMU to play under head coach Larry Brown before deciding to head overseas. His 6’5” body gives him incredible size as a point guard, and his attacking style is impressive.
Still, his jumper is a question mark, and he is a wild card because of his competition in China, where Michael Beasley averaged 28.6 points per game.
Maybe if he went to college, things would have been different. But on a Denver Nuggets team that already has an established point guard (for now) in Ty Lawson, Mudiay was an unnecessary pick, even if he did drop a little more than expected.
6. Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers
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How can a player who was the consensus No. 1 pick for most of the year be labeled overrated after falling to the Philadelphia 76ers as the No. 3 pick?
The answer is simple.
If the Los Angeles Lakers, who have had legendary centers Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Shaquille O’Neal, didn’t think Okafor was worthy of being their No. 2 draft pick, then maybe he isn’t the amazing prospect many thought he was.
Or maybe they really screwed up. Only time will tell.
I was never as impressed with Okafor as some others, most notably former coach Jim Boeheim, who seemed ready to put him in the Hall of Fame back in February.
“He's the best guy I've seen come along in a long time,'' Boeheim said, according to Mike Waters of Syracuse.com. "He's got as good of footwork as any big guy I've seen since way back. He's a very, very good offensive player."
While there is no denying that Okafor is gifted on the offensive end of the floor and is an excellent post player, certain parts of his game are red flags.
He shot just 51 percent from the free-throw line, which is a major concern, especially given the NBA’s revival of the late-game tactic of intentionally fouling the other team’s worst foul shooter.
Additionally, Okafor wasn’t much of a presence in the paint on the defensive end of the floor, averaging just 1.4 blocks per game for Duke last season.
His stock may have taken a hit when he laid an egg in the NCAA championship game against Wisconsin, scoring just 10 points and grabbing three rebounds in 22 minutes.
Statistical analysis from FiveThirtyEight.com places a 29.6 percent bust percentage on Okafor, per the Washington Post. That same analysis puts his odds of becoming a star at just 5.9 percent.
At the very least, he isn’t the lock that he was once believed to be, especially now since he is set to join a crowded frontcourt on a bad Philadelphia team.
5. Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings
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Willie Cauley-Stein went higher than most people predicted he would in this year’s draft, and to a surprise team.
The newest member of the Sacramento Kings didn’t show much statistical improvement in any category besides free-throw percentage over his three years at Kentucky and doesn’t have one NBA skill that jumps off the page.
There’s a chance he can develop into a really solid defensive center who excels in a pick-and-roll, alley-oop-centered offense. His ceiling could be a player like Tyson Chandler, who is also limited offensively but has had the ability to anchor a defense in the past.
It’s possible that the Kings reached a bit and took Cauley-Stein as insurance if they trade center DeMarcus Cousins, but his athleticism is still likely being overvalued.
4. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
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At just 18 years old, Devin Booker seems to be a few years away from becoming a true contributor for the Phoenix Suns, if he ever becomes one at all.
It’s hard to justify spending a lottery pick on a one-and-done college player who wasn’t even a starter.
Booker, the 2015 SEC Sixth Man of the Year, displayed excellent three-point prowess by connecting on 41.1 percent of his triples last season at Kentucky. The Suns like to play a fast game under head coach Jeff Hornacek, but Booker has yet to show any kind of desire to rebound or distribute, making him a one-dimensional player.
Booker could wind up being a marksman like Klay Thompson or a bust like Jimmer Fredette. Maybe he'll find some middle ground and be somewhere along the lines of an Anthony Morrow.
The bottom line is that we haven’t seen him display a variety of skills that can translate to the NBA other than his shooting—a skill that is a dime a dozen in today’s game.
3. Terry Rozier, Boston Celtics
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The Boston Celtics selected point guard Marcus Smart with the sixth overall pick in the 2014 draft and followed up by selecting Terry Rozier with this year’s No. 16 pick.
The pick was definitely surprising since Rozier was further down on a lot of draft boards, and neither he or Smart can slide over to shooting guard.
"I'm kind of confused, I'm kind of dumbfounded to be honest," said Comcast Sportsnet New England’s Dalen Cuff. “He is an erratic offensive player. You never know what you're going to get on a night-to-night basis from him, and you don't know what kind of shots he's going to take."
While Rozier’s scoring total more than doubled in his sophomore year, the Louisville guard shot just 41.1 percent from the field and 30.6 percent from downtown. Additionally, he averaged only three assists per game, which places his ability to become a solid distributor in the NBA in doubt.
2. Mario Hezonja, Orlando Magic
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Mario Hezonja is another example of a team drafting for potential rather than production.
While the Orlando Magic hope that Super Mario lives up to his nickname in the NBA, they really have no idea how he’ll turn out, no matter how much he thinks he can beat Kobe Bryant in a game of one-on-one.
The Croatian averaged just 5.8 points in 15.4 minutes per game in Spain last season, with no real penchant for being a rebounder or distributer in his 54 games. He has a solid three-point shot (career 37.7 percent) but has to develop more of an overall game to live up to being selected with the fifth overall pick.
At least he believes he’s a star.
"If I was in college, I'd probably be the No. 1 pick," Hezonja told Bleacher Report’s David Pick.
In my book, he was taken a bit too high for the Magic, who seemed to be a perfect fit for Duke’s Justise Winslow.
1. Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
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Who is Kristaps Porzingis? Since nobody can give a definitive answer to this simple question, he has to be at least a little overrated as the No. 4 pick.
Some people are high on him.
“If the draft was one year from now, I think Porzingis goes No. 1," one former NBA executive told Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports. "He’s just not fully formed yet and that’s getting in the way of people’s decisions. But one more year, and I think it would be him and then [Karl-Anthony Towns, Russell and Okafor]."
Others, not so much.
Stephen A. Smith went on a Twitter rant shortly after the Knicks' draft selection last night:
"I'm done. I'm just done. I'm turning the draft off right now. I know Porzingis can play, but we don't see the next coming of Andrea Bargnani. How in the name of decency do you spend the 4th pick on someone who may be a star in 5 years for NEW YORK CITY when Dolan is your owner and there are players like Winslow and Mudiay who can do things for you right now? Clearly, he thinks he's earned our trust as an exec. And clearly he's oblivious to his own record in NY. He's lucky if Melo hasn't already called and asked to be traded. & he'd better show up n Free Agency and get some talent on this roster.
"
It will be interesting to see where Porzingis lands on a sliding scale of European draft picks, from horrible bust Darko Milicic to future Hall of Fame forward Dirk Nowitzki.
His size and skill set are largely undeniable, as the 7’1” center has legitimate range from behind the arc and is a career 35.5 percent three-point shooter.
Although his shooting percentages are great, he averaged just 4.6 rebounds and 1.0 block per game in 50 games last season, a stat line that resembles someone the New York Knicks would like to forget about completely in Andrea Bargnani.
It’s clear that he’s going to need to bulk up in order to play against more traditional centers in the NBA and shed the “soft” label that naturally accompanies European big men.
Judging by the loud boos from the crowd at Barclays Center when Porzingis’ name was called, the hungry Knicks fanbase didn’t want a project with the team's first top-five draft pick since Kenny Walker in 1986.
And while he may develop into a star, Porzingis is definitely going to be a project.
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