Don't Look Now: Minnesota Timberwolves Are Poised as NBA's Next Breakout Team
It doesn’t seem realistic to look at the team that had the worst record in the league last year and think, “That group right there is full of promise,” but make no mistake about it: The Minnesota Timberwolves are a team on the rise.
They’re poised to be the next team to make the giant leap from league laughingstock to contender.
When you look at the depth of talent they’ve accrued over the last few years, the way it’s developing, their cap situation and the fact they have the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft, it’s only a matter of when—not if—they break out.
The Talent
The Timberwolves’ record last year was just 16-66, but it was hardly illustrative of the talent available to them. In fact, according to Man Games Lost NBA, no one even came close to the injuries they had:
In the chart, the further to the right and further up the team was, the more time was missed, and the higher up it is, the higher quality minutes were missed. Minnesota was the worst off in both regards.
Ergo, that team was not as bad as its record suggests.
There’s a hidden benefit to going through a series of injuries in a year, particularly when your elite talent is all in its late teens or early 20s. It gives the youngsters (at least those that aren’t injured) a chance to improve without having to apologize for losing.
And in Minnesota, that’s exactly what happened. No. 1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins made tremendous improvement as the year progressed. Fellow rookie Zach LaVine saw remarkable growth near the end of the season. And Shabazz Muhammad, the T‘Wolves underrated sophomore, was starting to prove his value before he went down with a ruptured middle finger on Feb. 20.
As the chart illustrates, each of the three presented a demonstrable improvement based on John Hollinger’s “game score” (a single-number metric similar to player efficiency rating) as the season progressed.
Not only did the trio develop, it did so in a way that bodes well for chemistry in the future years. Wiggins is a driver who can get to the rim and dunk at will. He can do so either putting the ball on the floor or cutting to the rim for the alley-oop.
LaVine has athleticism on par with Russell Westbrook, and he also shot 38.8 percent from deep over the last 27 games of the season. Muhammed is a great low-post scorer, and he also shot 39.2 percent from behind the arc.
In the analytics age, where prominence is given to shots inside the little arc or outside the bigger one, having one wing who is a “slasher” and another who is a “splasher” is the ultimate prize. If teams crowd the lane, you can kill them with the three. If they commit too hard to closing out on threes, you can beat them off the dribble or dash to the rim for the slam.
Ricky Rubio is still a surprisingly young 24. He’s a brilliant floor general who can set up the guys around him. He’s the perfect passer to feed Minnesota’s wings.
Last year, Minnesota’s offensive rating was 2.3 points higher with him on the court, per NBA.com. Perhaps some would find it surprising that he’s arguably a better defensive player, though.
The T’Wolves gave up 7.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when he played. And per ESPN.com, his plus-2.23 defensive real plus-minus was first among all point guards in the league.
The Timberwolves don’t just have ethereal talent here, they have synergistic players who can make one another better. And they’re downright entertaining in the process.
While he might not be as promising at the moment, they also have Anthony Bennett, the former No. 1 overall draft pick who is currently working out with Drew Hanlen and making progress.
He has admittedly been a disappointment to this date in his career, but he still has time to establish a place in the league.
The No. 1 Pick
The Timberwolves' best player might be the one who gets drafted on June 25. And the indications are that is going to be Karl Towns out of Kentucky. Mark Heisler wrote for Forbes:
"In the Lakers’ dreams, Minnesota, picking No. 1 in the NBA draft, would take Jahlil Okafor, dropping Karl Towns to them at No. 2, which looked possible but less so now.Minnesota GM/coach Flip Saunders, who had been leaning toward Okafor, is said to have turned pro-Towns after seeing him last week in Los Angeles. The splash sent ripples throughout the NBA. Says an insider: “There’s no doubt, the T-Wolves are taking Towns.”
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The reason for Towns over Okafor is fit. Their largest void is a big man with range.
According to Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz of Draft Express, Towns can score inside the post or with range. First:
"Towns shows excellent potential in the post with his strong frame and long arms, which gives him an excellent vantage point to just throw the ball in the basket with extremely soft touch. Besides his jump-hook, which he can shoot with either hand (but clearly prefers utilizing his right), he also shows a nice turnaround jump-shot he can go to, as well as the framework of an old-school swooping hook shot running across the lane.
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And then:
"Towns grew up as a perimeter oriented power forward who didn't hesitate to fire away from beyond the arc when left open, leading his high school team in 3-pointers made, and hitting 46% of his attempts as a 15-year old on the Dominican Republic U17 team on 5.5 tries per game. He didn't show much of that at Kentucky, only taking eight threes on the year (of which he made two), but his excellent shooting mechanics, combined with his outstanding 82% free throw percentage as a freshman, leads you to believe he'll continue to hone this part of his game in the NBA.
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It’s as though he were tailor-made for the Timberwolves roster. With his ability to score at the rim or behind the three-point line, he’s the perfect complement to the existing slashers, splashers and passers.
In addition, he fits well with the defensively oriented Gorgui Dieng. His massive 7'0", 250-pound frame would allow him to serve as rim protector, freeing up the lankier Dieng to help in switches and protect the perimeter.
The difference between Towns and Okafor is huge, per Key Dae of Cannis Hoopus:
"Karl Towns has the highest Defensive Win Share/40 mark (0.141) of any NCAA player in the last 6 years (Sports Reference's database starts tracking them in '09). This exceeds, among others, Anthony Davis (0.131), Draymond Green (0.117) and his own teammate, Trilly Cauley-Stein (0.134)
Towns posted a higher Defensive Win Share total (remember, this is straight up cumulative) in 822 minutes than Okafor did in 1,143 minutes. In fact, Okafor's Defensive Wins Shares don't even exceed Nerlens Noel's, who played just 765 minutes (in 14 fewer games) at Kentucky in 12-13. Had they played equivalent minutes, Towns' Defensive Win Share total would have been nearly double that of Okafor's (4.2 to 2.2).
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The impact of adding Towns to the Wolves would be colossal. C.J. Moore of Bleacher Report quoted an NBA scout’s view on his ceiling.
"Best-case scenario he's a better version of LaMarcus Aldridge," the scout said. "I think he has a little more range on his shot. ... The thing about Towns is the three-point shooting. He didn't get to do it at Kentucky. He can score on the blocks some, but then he can really shoot."
When I read “better version of LaMarcus Aldridge,” it’s hard to not consider that at least one MVP and/or Finals MVP might not be in his future.
When you factor in that much potential with what’s already on the roster, it’s almost enough to make you want to order a jersey.
But Wait, There’s More!
Looking at the Wolves’ young players and their potential, it’s easy to get excited, but they have more than that. They have veterans in their stable too.
They have future Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett to mentor Towns and Dieng while providing a defensive presence for 15-20 minutes a night. He provides leadership that a young team like this is rarely privy to.
The Wolves have other vets who can contribute. Shooting guard Kevin Martin is past his prime, but he can stretch the court and get to the rim. He and center Nikola Pekovic, who had surgery on his right Achilles tendon, are players who should be able to contribute next year.
However, they may not be a part of the long-term future of the franchise. But they could be great trade fodder for a contending franchise looking for that last piece to finish the puzzle. Pekovic will need to prove he’s able to play still, but if he can he could be a marketable piece. Either could be moved during the season for youngsters and/or draft picks.
Not only can they improve via trade, they can add talent through free agency. According to Spotrac.com, they have $57 million in contracts but, after holds, they are over the cap. That means they can add both a mid-level bi-annual exception.
Furthermore, when the cap balloons to an estimated $89 million next year, the Timberwolves will have room to add a max-contract player and still keep Wiggins and Towns down the road. If they move Pekovic in a salary dump, they could have even more.
It might seem ridiculous to suggest that a top-tier free agent would willing choose moving to the Minnesota tundra, but it’s not.
The NBA culture is different than it once was, even a decade ago.
When LeBron James and Chris Bosh went to the Miami Heat to team up with Dwayne Wade, everything changed. Players are taking max deals to join up with younger players for a chance to win. It brought James back to Cleveland. It kept Chris Paul in Los Angeles to play with the woe-begotten Clippers. Both those franchises were once considered no-man’s land.
If the Clippers and Cavaliers can attract max players, so can the Timberwolves. And if winning is what matters, the teams that have the most elite young talent will be the most attractive to superstars seeking rings. And it will be tough for anyone to beat the Minnesota in that regard.
It may seem a strange thing to say, but when you look at who the Timberwolves already have, who they are likely to get this summer and who they can acquire in the future, they are a team with sunny days ahead.
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