Ranking the Atlanta Hawks' Biggest Needs for 2015 NBA Offseason
The Atlanta Hawks now shift their attention to improving themselves in the 2015 offseason after a disappointing end to a historic campaign.
The Hawks' Eastern Conference Finals sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers was shocking to say the least, but it shouldn't cause management to panic and make drastic changes to the roster. After all, Atlanta won a franchise-record 60 games in 2014-15 and cleared two playoff series for the first time since 1958, when the squad won an NBA title under the St. Louis Hawks name.
Keep in mind, all of this happened despite terrible injury luck and uncharacteristic cold shooting for the last two months of the season.
Let's consider the five main priorities Atlanta should focus on this summer, in ascending order of importance.
5. Drafting Wing Depth
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With Thabo Sefolosha's right fibula injury in early April already leaving the Hawks shorthanded on the wing, Kyle Korver's right ankle sprain in Game 2 against Cleveland was the nail in the coffin for Atlanta's title hopes. A wing rotation consisting of a banged-up DeMarre Carroll, Kent Bazemore, Shelvin Mack and John Jenkins wasn't going to overcome a 2-0 deficit against a LeBron James-led squad.
Suffice it to say, the Hawks absolutely need more depth at shooting guard and small forward.
Where can Atlanta find help at the wing positions? Free agency is an option, but this year's draft should be the preferred route. The Hawks have the 15th overall pick, and the wing talent around that slot is plentiful.
Some of the players Atlanta should consider drafting are Kansas' Kelly Oubre, Wisconsin's Sam Dekker, Kentucky's Devin Booker and Georgia State's R.J. Hunter. All four players offer a unique skill set that could benefit the Hawks off the bench in 2015-16, but Oubre is probably the most tantalizing prospect of the quartet.
The 19-year-old small forward has the athleticism and length (a 7'2 1/4" wingspan, per DraftExpress) to wreak havoc in transition, on the boards and in the passing lanes from the get-go. His jump shot, while streaky, has the potential to get better and become an asset in the Hawks' system.
As DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony explained, "Oubre has a tendency to change up his release point at times when rushed, sometimes shooting the ball on the way down, off the side of his hand, or with very little arc, but he's improved steadily on this part of his game over the past few years and should continue to do so in time with proper instruction."
If the left-handed Oubre can significantly develop his three-point shot like Carroll and Paul Millsap did upon joining the Hawks, Atlanta will have a diamond in the rough on their hands.
Of course, this all depends on if he's available and the Hawks snatch him up. But even if Atlanta doesn't get Oubre, wing depth should still be the priority June 25 at the Barclays Center.
4. Acquiring a Rebounding Big Man
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The Hawks were one of the worst teams on the boards this regular season, with the NBA's 27th-best rebound differential of minus-3.0. Only the New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks had worse marks.
But Atlanta's glass-cleaning problems reached a new low in the Cleveland series.
Tristan Thompson, Timofey Mozgov and LeBron James victimized the Hawks frontcourt to the tune of 29.5 combined rebounds per game. By comparison, Carroll, Millsap and Al Horford only totaled 16.4 boards per contest between them. Overall, Cleveland's rebound differential in the sweep was plus-12.7.
Lack of rebounding is the single biggest weakness of the Hawks roster and needs to be addressed.
Now, Atlanta shouldn't look to squeeze Millsap or Horford out of the starting lineup. Yes, the two All-Stars are undersized for their post positions (6'8" and 6'10", respectively), but they cause too many matchup problems with their versatility to be replaced.
The biggest problem right now is with the bench.
Of the Hawks' reserve bigs, only Mike Muscala cracked 7.5 rebounds per 36 minutes this season. That's not usually a difficult mark for post players to hit, but Pero Antic, Mike Scott and Elton Brand were all below that number.
Antic and Brand are free agents this summer, and Atlanta may not retain either, considering their advanced ages (32 and 36 years old, respectively) and mediocre performances this season.
To fill the potential void left by those two, the Hawks would need to make a run at a free-agent 4 or 5 who can play rotation minutes and bang inside with the Thompsons and Mozgovs of the league.
One possible option is Ed Davis, who is coming off of a career year with the Los Angeles Lakers. The 6'10" big man would be immediately ready to step in as the first post player off the bench with his 11.7 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Even if Atlanta doesn't get Davis, the squad should pursue another free-agent big man of that ilk to bolster its rebounding capabilities.
3. Re-Signing DeMarre Carroll and Paul Millsap
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A big reason for the Hawks' success this season was the performance of their two starting forwards, Carroll and Millsap. Both players set career highs in win shares (7.0 and 8.3, respectively) and established themselves as dangerous two-way threats.
The pair also showed tremendous grit in playing through serious injuries during the playoffs.
Carroll dealt with both a sprained knee and turf toe in the Eastern Conference Finals, maladies that would've kept him out three to four weeks had they occurred during the regular season, he said, according to the Atlanta Journal Constitution's Jeff Schultz. However, he didn't miss a single contest in the playoff run.
Millsap strained his shoulder in April, causing him to miss five late regular-season contests before returning for all 16 postseason games. According to Bleacher Report's Howard Beck, though, the injury is problematic enough that it could require surgery. Somehow, Millsap still played through it.
Both players are free agents this summer and will demand significant pay raises.
Carroll and Millsap's injury struggles may cause some teams to balk at offering them large contracts, but their toughness and dedication to the team are a sign Atlanta should look to bring back both. Basketball Insiders' Nate Duncan thinks the Hawks have the cap room to do so and would still have a little bit of room left over to make minor signings.
How do Carroll and Millsap feel about coming back? They would like it, according to the Atlanta Journal Constitution's Chris Vivlamore.
After Game 4 against the Cavaliers, both players spoke about free agency. Carroll said his "priority is to go to the Hawks," while Millsap mentioned the closeness of the Atlanta squad will factor into his decision.
The two forwards were a huge part of Atlanta's offensive and defensive success this season, and they should be retained to preserve continuity.
2. Getting Healthy
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Where do I start with all of the Hawks' injuries in the playoffs?
Sefolosha tore his fibula in April, missed the entire postseason and should finally return by the start of next season, according to RealGM. Korver had surgery on his ankle Wednesday and will be out three months, per Vivlamore. Jeff Teague had ankle issues and Al Horford's dislocated pinky hindered his mid-range shooting ability. Carroll and Millsap had their aforementioned injury problems, and even Shelvin Mack hurt his shoulder in Game 4 against Cleveland, per Vivlamore.
Add all of that up, and you have each of the Hawks' six most valuable players (plus Mack) at a serious disadvantage for at least part of the team's playoff run.
Without a doubt, those injuries played a part in Atlanta's sweep at the hands of the Cavaliers. Yes, Cleveland faced significant health problems with Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, but not quite to the extent of the Hawks' struggles.
To regain contender status in the fall, all of Atlanta's banged-up players must get healthy through a balance of rest and rehabilitation this offseason.
1. Trusting the System, Not Reaching for the Star Free Agents
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Last summer, I mistakenly gave the Hawks a C-minus grade for their offseason, citing their inability to nab a star shooting guard or small forward as the main reason for the poor mark.
In the article, I wrote: "Payne was a mediocre draft pick, and neither of their free-agent acquisitions [Sefolosha and Bazemore] will be the difference-makers on the wing the Hawks need to barge their way into the Eastern Conference elite."
As it turned out, I didn't give Atlanta's system enough credit.
Despite the team not acquiring any top-shelf talent, Teague, Korver, Carroll, Millsap and Horford all had career years as members of the starting lineup. Dennis Schroder also took a huge leap in his sophomore year, and most of the other role players had solid campaigns.
Those internal improvements resulted in an excellent 60-win season. It's a credit to Budenholzer, whose offensive sets and defensive schemes helped a team without a top-15 NBA talent reach the East's No. 1 seed.
In the playoffs, poor shooting, a lack of ball movement and terrible injury luck were the main reasons for the Hawks' struggles. Atlanta rarely dealt with any of these problems during the regular season.
The Hawks' field-goal percentage at every degree of contest (wide open, open, tight and very tight) dropped significantly from the regular season to the playoffs. They passed the ball just 290.8 times per game in the postseason after doing so 322.9 times per contest during their first 82 games.
And the injuries? Well, you already know about those.
All of that is to say the reason Atlanta failed in the playoffs wasn't because the squad was missing a superstar player. It was that it couldn't make open shots, didn't pass the ball enough and couldn't stay healthy, things the team had done all season, even against elite competition (24-13 against opponents .500 or above).
The Hawks don't need to make any major pushes for big-name free agents like LaMarcus Aldridge or Marc Gasol. They do, however, need to get their core back on the court together at 100 percent with another year of collective experience under their belts.
If that happens, 2015-16 will be another wildly successful campaign for Atlanta.
All statistics are from Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com and ESPN.com (including ESPN's Hollinger Stats) and updated through May 27 unless otherwise indicated.
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