
Denver Broncos: Realistic 2015 Projections for Every Major Stat Category
The Denver Broncos are a team that will have a new look in 2015, mostly because of an entirely new coaching staff. However, many aspects of the team remain the same, including the fact that this year's goal is still to win the Super Bowl—and soon.
The Broncos have put up some gaudy numbers in recent years, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. Will those numbers go up or down under the team's new regime? And more importantly, how will those numbers ultimately factor into the team's success this season?
We will look into all of that here as we project team stats in several major categories.
Passing Offense
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2014 Stats
Passing Yards: 4,661 (4th)
Completion Percentage: 65.7 (8th)
Passing Touchdowns: 40 (2nd)
During Peyton Manning's tenure in Denver, the Broncos have been very reliant on a high-octane passing game in which Manning slings the ball all over the field, generally attempting at least 40 passes per game.
That could be changing with Gary Kubiak coming in as head coach, as the team could shift to a more run-based attack on offense.
While the Broncos will still be thrilled to have one of the game's most prolific passers, they should try to help their 39-year-old quarterback by not asking him to do quite as much.
Manning can be just as dangerous throwing the ball 25 times a game. If the Broncos can get the running game rolling, it could take a lot of pressure off Manning's shoulders. The team began to use the running game much more often following an embarrassing loss to the St. Louis Rams in Week 11, and the offense became much more potent after the change.
The days of Manning throwing for over 5,000 yards and 55 touchdowns are likely over, but that's not a bad thing.
Projected 2015 Stats
Passing Yards: 4,200
Completion Percentage: 66.5
Passing Touchdowns: 37
Passing Defense
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2014 Stats
Passing Yards Against: 3,607 (9th)
Passing Touchdowns Against: 29 (T-25th)
Interceptions: 18 (T-7th)
Sacks: 41 (9th)
With Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, Bradley Roby and T.J. Ward, the Broncos already had one of the better secondaries in the league prior to the 2015 NFL draft. Adding Lorenzo Doss in the fifth round gives the team another weapon to throw at opposing offenses.
In addition, first-round pick Shane Ray will add another element to a pass rush that already includes Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware.
In 2014, the Broncos were tough to throw against in general, but only five teams gave up more touchdowns through the air. In the divisional round of the playoffs, Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts had his way with Talib. Clearly, there were some chinks in the team's armor.
The Broncos have most of the pieces in place in 2015, though free safety remains a question mark. It will be up to Wade Phillips and his defensive coaches to get the most out of the players at their disposal.
Projected 2015 Stats
Passing Yards Against: 3,550
Passing Touchdowns Against: 23
Interceptions: 19
Sacks: 49
Rushing Offense
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2014 Stats
Rushing Yards: 1,785 (15th)
Yards Per Carry: 4.0 (20th)
Rushing Touchdowns: 15 (T-9th)
The Broncos were supposed to be a team that pounded the ball at defenses with their running game last season. However, those plans seemed to change when Montee Ball went down with an injury after not being incredibly effective prior to that.
But in Week 11's game against the Rams, Denver called 54 passing plays as opposed to just nine running plays. The Rams dealt the Broncos a 22-7 defeat, though the game wasn't as close as that score may indicate.
The tough loss led to a renewed focus on the running game, and C.J. Anderson excelled as a replacement for Ball. Anderson ran for 849 yards and eight touchdowns on the year, and because of the effort he put forth, Anderson is likely going to be the starting running back this season.
Expect to see that tough, in-your-face running game from Denver this season. Kubiak will use a rotation of Anderson, Ball and Ronnie Hillman, and teams will also likely see a high dose of Juwan Thompson as well.
Loius Vasquez will move back to the guard position on the offensive line, and draft choices Ty Sambrailo and Max Garcia will also have a good chance to play early in their careers. With Denver going to a zone-blocking system, the running game should excel.
Projected 2015 Stats
Rushing Yards: 1,950
Rushing Yards Per Carry: 4.9
Rushing Touchdowns: 20
Rushing Defense
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2014 Stats
Rushing Yards Against: 1,276 (2nd)
Yards Per Carry Against: 3.7 (4th)
Rushing Touchdowns Against: 9 (T-8th)
The Broncos were very good against the run last season. In fact, only the Detroit Lions were stingier against the run. However, much of the team's success should be credited to defensive tackle Terrance Knighton, who left via free agency.
Changing over to a 3-4 defensive scheme this season with Phillips coming in as the team's new defensive coordinator, whether the team can stop the run with its current personnel could be a big concern for many fans.
Sylvester Williams will need to turn into the player the team felt he was when they drafted him in the first round in 2013. However, the defensive tackle position should be the only concern.
Derek Wolfe could easily have the best year of his young career as a 3-4 defensive end, and the tandem of Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan should make a perfect combination as run-stopping inside linebackers.
While being No. 2 against the run again should not be expected, the Broncos should still be able to defend opposing ball-carriers very well.
Projected 2015 Stats
Rushing Yards Against: 1,475
Yards Per Carry Against: 4.1
Rushing Touchdowns Against: 13
Turnover Margin
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2014 Stats
Takeaways: 25 (T-13th)
Giveaways: 20 (T-6th)
Differential: 5 (T-11th)
To win in the NFL, you need to be able to protect the ball. It's usually as simple as that. If you turn the ball over more than you take it away, chances are the losses are going to pile up.
Last season, the bottom six teams in terms of turnover margin were the Oakland Raiders, New Orleans Saints, Washington Redskins, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What do all of those teams have in common? Not only did they miss the playoffs in 2014, but most of them chose at the top of this year's draft as a result of a poor win-loss record.
The Broncos were able to come up with 18 interceptions last season. Only six teams had more. This season, expect to see a defense that is even more aggressive, one that will likely create many fumbles via strip sacks with the pass rush they will unleash on their opponents.
It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Broncos near the top of the league in turnovers forced. The key will be running an efficient offense that protects the ball in order to maximize those turnovers, rather than giving them right back.
The 25 turnovers the team forced last season was a good number, and while having a positive differential of plus-five was better than half of the teams in the league, 20 turnovers is too many. Of those, 15 were interceptions.
Projected 2015 Stats
Takeaways: 30
Giveaways: 16
Differential: 14
Sacks Allowed
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2014 Stats
Sacks Allowed: 17 (1st)
The Broncos have actually led the league in this category in each of the last two seasons, according to Sporting Charts. In 2012, they came in at No. 2. That is key in an offense led by Manning, and much of the team's recent success is due to how quickly he deciphers a play and gets the ball out.
The Broncos have improved the offensive line in the offseason, adding Sambrailo, Garcia, Gino Gradkowski and Shelley Smith. The main responsibility for each of these players is to keep Manning upright.
Manning's passing attack is predicated on timing, and when things break down and the pocket collapses, he's not exactly Ben Roethlisberger or Aaron Rodgers when it comes to making something happen.
Though Manning has taken some hits in Denver, the team has done an excellent job protecting him in his three years with the team. How many huge shots has he taken? That's right, not very many.
There's no reason to believe this trend will change.
Projected 2015 Stats
Sacks Allowed: 15
Road Win-Loss Record
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2014 Stats
Road Win-Loss Record: 4-4
The Broncos finished the season 12-4 in 2014. That included an 8-0 record at home and a 6-0 record within the AFC West division. Good teams win their home games and divisional games, but great teams find a way to collect tough wins on the road.
In addition to another tough loss in Foxborough to the New England Patriots, the Broncos also dropped road games against the Rams, Cincinnati Bengals and Seattle Seahawks last season. While few teams go to Seattle and get wins, the losses against the Rams and Bengals were especially telling.
If you missed every game Denver played in 2014 except the contests at St. Louis and at Cincinnati, you'd have been able to tell that the team didn't have what it took to win the Super Bowl.
In order to make that happen, the Broncos not only need to continue taking care of business at home and inside the division, but winning tough games on the road in hostile environments will help the team turn the corner.
While the Broncos avoided yet another trip to New England this coming season, there are some tough road opponents on the schedule. Three games in particular stick out.
The Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers will all host the Broncos in 2015. If Denver can find a way to win two of those three games, they may have what it takes to make a deep postseason run.
Projected 2015 Stats
Road Win-Loss Record: 6-2
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