5 Reasons Tim Duncan Shouldn't Retire Just Yet
For those who love him most, there will never be a good time for Tim Duncan to retire. He's inextricably linked to all the awesome, cliched, model-franchise stuff that makes the San Antonio Spurs so undeniably compelling.
Should the 39-year-old call it quits after this season's narrow ousting from the opening round?
Few would wish such a thing, but there's something to be said for walking away at the right time. Without naming names, several of Duncan's contemporaries have probably hung on a season or two beyond that "best used by" expiration date. He doesn't want to follow in those footsteps, not with the glow of a fifth title in the not-too-distant past.
But walking away at the right time begs a few questions. Can Duncan still play? Can the Spurs still win?
Will it still be fun?
"People ask me about Tim and Manu and myself for the last five years, what we're going to do," head coach Gregg Popovich told reporters after San Antonio's Game 7 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. "It's all psychobabble. I have no clue. We'll probably come back. Paycheck is pretty good. You think I'm lying?"
If only that paycheck were indeed reason enough for Duncan to return after 18 seasons of a pretty lucrative NBA salary.
We'll examine a few other reasons to return, reasons Duncan shouldn't hang up the silver and black just yet.
5. Tony Parker Should Bounce Back
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It wasn't a season to remember for Tony Parker.
Sidelined for 14 games by a variety of ailments during the regular season, the 32-year-old endured a nagging injury throughout San Antonio's series against the Clippers. Parker's regular-season averages of 14.4 points and 4.9 assists per game were his lowest output since his rookie season all the way back in 2001-02.
One wonders whether all the accumulated miles, postseason participation and summer play have caught up with the 32-year-old a bit.
And while that's a distinct possibility, it's equally plausible that a healthier Parker will rediscover the kind of offense that's made him one of the last decade's very best floor generals. The more optimistic scenario has to intrigue Duncan. A resurgent Parker would instantly restore the team's hopes of another title.
With three more seasons under contract in San Antonio, you'd expect Parker to do everything within his power to bounce back. That might even mean reconsidering his plans to play for Team France at Eurobasket 2015.
It's a critical juncture for Parker, a season that could largely determine whether he remains in the prime of his career.
At the very least, Parker should remain a serviceable floor general capable of initiating offense for the Spurs' ensemble cast of scorers. That's not a terrible worst-case scenario for a 2015-16 campaign that could be Duncan's last.
4. Kawhi Leonard Has Arrived
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We should probably forgive Kawhi Leonard for his lackluster performance during the final three games of the opening round. Having chased the likes of Chris Paul and J.J. Redick around for an entire series, it was unrealistic to expect the highly efficient scoring outbursts to continue.
Perhaps the Spurs even learned some lessons about the limits of two-way effort—the ability of a defensive specialist to consistently take over on the offensive end.
Either way, Leonard is plenty deserving of the maximum contract he's almost certainly about to receive. He averaged 20.3 points and 7.4 rebounds against L.A. and posted a career-high 32 points in Game 3. It was a natural extension of the career-high 16.5 points per contest he averaged during the regular season.
The offensive ability is officially there in clearer view than it ever was during Leonard's first three seasons.
It's not just the fact that Leonard's scoring either. It's the way he's doing it—via post-up moves, turnaround jumpers, isolation dribble drives. The 23-year-old has become a multitalented scorer on the wing, good enough to command a few double-teams in the process.
There's still room for greater consistency and more sustained aggressiveness, but there's also little doubt Leonard will put in the work required to get there. He didn't earn this season's Defensive Player of the Year award by accident.
Leonard's steady emergence should remain a draw for Duncan. Even if Parker never fully returns to form, Leonard has proved he's qualified to be a go-to scorer—or at least to share the burden with the likes of Duncan.
Leonard doesn't single-handedly make this an elite team, but he's the kind of piece who helps, a rare talent willing to exert all kinds of energy on both ends of the floor. Watching that talent continue to blossom firsthand has to be part of Duncan's retirement equation.
He's never had a sidekick this good, and that's saying a lot.
3. Help May Be on the Way
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Sure, it's a best-case scenario—but it can't be discounted. Portland Trail Blazers big man LaMarcus Aldridge becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer, and rumors abound that he could be persuaded to return to his Texas stomping grounds.
Earlier this month, ESPN.com's Marc Stein reported that "sources insist—at, yes, this early juncture—that San Antonio sits near or at the top of Aldridge's list...unless the Cleveland Cavaliers were to lose Kevin Love and then somehow manufacture a way to sign-and-trade for him."
Someone of Aldridge's caliber would be a blockbuster addition and something of a coup for a team that didn't leave this season's title conversation until the closely contested end. His inside-outside scoring ability could thrive amid San Antonio's ball movement, and the starting lineup would suddenly feature the best one-two post punch this side of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph.
Gasol also happens to be a free agent this summer, and one suspects general manager R.C. Buford will at least perform due diligence on that front.
One way or another, the Spurs are positioned to infuse the rotation with some new blood. The organization has considerable flexibility as it approaches the offseason. In addition to Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green, Marco Belinelli, Jeff Ayers and Matt Bonner are all scheduled to become unrestricted free agents.
The inevitable max contract Kawhi Leonard will receive will limit some of San Antonio's flexibility, but the Spurs should still have space to make a key addition if they play their cards right.
Aron Baynes and Cory Joseph are also due qualifying offers (that would make them restricted free agents as well), so the club will have some difficult decisions to make.
But with the possibility of acquiring some of Aldridge's ilk looming on the horizon, those decisions may wind up being fairly straightforward. Now would be a pretty good time to land another franchise-altering superstar.
How could Duncan walk away from that?
2. These Spurs Are Still Pretty Good
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Regardless of what happens in free agency, San Antonio still has Tony Parker, Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills and Kyle Anderson under contract. Assuming some core free agents (e.g. Green) return, this unit would still largely resemble the squad that won a championship in 2014.
And don't be fooled by that early exit to the Los Angeles Clippers. It was a seven-game series, and Game 7 was anyone's game. Spurs fans should take some solace in the difficulty the Houston Rockets have subsequently faced against those same Clippers in the conference semifinals.
San Antonio lost to a very good team, and it didn't lose by much.
Nor should one forget that these Spurs rattled off 15 consecutive wins late in the season. Once healthy and in rhythm, this squad remained as dangerous as any in the league.
That's not to say things went perfectly. There's room for growth and—perhaps—some change.
But there's no need to blow the roster up in radical fashion. Should Duncan decide to return, there will be something familiar and proven in place. The Spurs still value corporate knowledge, and that commitment won't disappear overnight—least of all after a season in which the Spurs remained entirely relevant by the numbers.
According to Hollinger Team Stats, San Antonio ranked sixth in offensive efficiency during the regular season, scoring 106.2 points per 100 possessions. It was even better on the defensive end, ranking third and allowing opponents just 99.6 points per 100 possessions.
The Spurs' 55.5 true shooting percentage ranked fifth, and their 18.6 assist ratio ranked fourth.
Duncan had a lot to do with the club's effectiveness, and there's little reason to expect next season to be any different.
1. He's Still Got It
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"I'm not making any statements," Duncan told reporters after exiting the postseason when queried about his retirement status.
"It's a little too early to think about that," he added.
And by the individual numbers, it's still way too soon to entertain any question of calling it a career.
Duncan was nothing short of elite this season, earning his 15th All-Star selection with a team-leading 22.7 player efficiency rating, per ESPN.com. He regularly recorded double-doubles and posted 13.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.96 blocks per contest. If anything, those numbers are deflated on account of sometimes-limited minutes and the decentralized nature of San Antonio's offense.
Make no mistake—Duncan is still remarkably good, particularly on the defensive end.
His 4.7 defensive win shares ranked fourth league-wide, according to Basketball-Reference.com, and his 4.7 defensive box plus-minus ranked third. The advanced metrics indicate that Duncan remains one of the very best defensive players on the planet, and that would be difficult to replace even with the acquisition of either Aldridge or Gasol.
These aren't the signs of a player on the brink of retirement even if age says otherwise.
Popovich described Duncan's thought process to USA Today's Sam Amick in February, and it's worth recalling what he said:
"No matter how (the season) ends, I think Timmy is going to look at (retirement) again. And if you ask me, my guess is that he'll go for another one because he has been so consistent this season.
It's just consistent stuff: another double-double, over and over and over again. Because of that, I think in his mind that if it continues through the rest of the year, I think he'll say, 'I'm going to go another year and see what happens.' Because what he has told me is that the minute he feels like he's a hindrance to his team or he's not on the positive end or helping him, he's going to walk right off the court. It might be during the third quarter of a game.
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Duncan was anything but a hindrance during this season's opening round. He became the oldest player to record four games with at least 20 points and 10 rebounds in a postseason series. And he was almost certainly San Antonio's most consistent contributor apart from a four-point Game 3 in which his team hardly needed him.
The 39-year-old did much of his damage against DeAndre Jordan, a 6'11" athletic specimen, in a matchup that might have given Duncan some trouble. Instead, the steady Duncan summoned something more than talent.
He showed the fight and passion of a great who's not ready to retire just yet.
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