10 NBA Free Agents Playing for a Major Payday in the 2015 Playoffs
When the lights shine the brightest, more people are watching. Those people often include front office types, scoping around the league to see who can step up when it matters most.
We see it quite often in the NBA—sometimes for better, sometimes for worse (looking at you, Jerome James): a soon-to-be free agent lighting it up in the playoffs, tacking millions of dollars onto what his new contract would've otherwise included.
This season's NBA playoffs feature an unusually high number number of players in contract years, battling for not only playoff victories, but personal recognition. To be clear, this doesn't include impending free agents who have done enough in their careers to already garner major offers regardless. LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol and Kevin Love fall under this category. Guys like Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler may not make that list yet, but it depends on their respective postseasons.
Here, we'll discuss this year's group of players that can change their entire summer—and their next few seasons—with a great month or two of playoff basketball.
DeMarre Carroll
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NBA GMs are often on the lookout for the "next" DeMarre Carroll—the late-round draft pick, perhaps one that's kicked around the league a bit, who has developed into a defensive commodity and reliable role player on an affordable contract.
The ones who failed at finding this DeMarre Carroll will likely chase him this summer. But they're certainly going to need to fork up more than the $2.4 million he made this season.
It took Carroll five NBA teams in as many seasons, but the 28-year-old has finally carved out a niche in one of the league's most balanced lineups. With the Atlanta Hawks over the last two years, he's averaged 11.8 points and 5.4 rebounds, shot 48 percent from the floor and 38 percent from three, while starting in 142 of the team's 164 games.
Carroll thrives in a number of categories today's league emphasizes. The corner three-pointer, for one, is a strength of his—43.8 percent of his threes came from the corners this season, according to Basketball-Reference, and he's drilled 44.4 percent of them.
Athletic players with long arms that can guard several positions are one of the highest needs around the league, and Carroll's 6'10" wingspan helps him jump passing lanes well. His 2.2 steal percentage (percentage of opponent's plays that end in steals by Carroll while he was on the floor), ranked 50th league-wide among players with at least 15 minutes per game and at least 50 games.
Part of the advantage Atlanta has after finding him—and others on affordable contracts—is that the team is under the salary cap and will have money to spend this offseason.. Still, a team desperate for Carroll's skill set—and there are plenty—could make an offer the Hawks could be reluctant to match.
Paul Millsap
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Another one of those Hawks currently on a modest contract is Paul Millsap, who is also set to hit free agency this summer.
Coming off back-to-back All-Star campaigns, Millsap may finally be shedding that underrated label he's acquired by playing in the smaller markets of Utah and Atlanta. In two years with the Hawks, he's averaged 17 point per game on 47 percent shooting to go along with eight boards, three assists and nearly two steals. Under Mike Budenholzer, he's worked the three-pointer into his arsenal, and he's drilled them at a 36 percent clip.
After settling for a two-year, $19 million deal in 2013, the 30-year-old may want to cash out with a large contract before the end of his prime. A January report from USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt indicated as much:
"In reporting on intriguing free agents, I was told Paul Millsap had longer offer from Hawks but wanted opp to re-up for last big deal at 30.
— Jeff Zillgitt (@JeffZillgitt) January 19, 2015"
Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler seems to feel the two sides will eventually reach another agreement this summer, considering the Hawks' flexible cap situation and their ability to offer Millsap more than any other organization.
Still, GMs interested in signing a player to be a cornerstone may be reluctant to give the Millsap camp a call, considering the well-balanced nature of his teams over the course of his career—he's never averaged more than 14 shot attempts per game. But playoff success trumps a lot of other factors, and especially on one of the few squads that can come out of the East and make the Finals, all eyes will be on Millsap over the team's playoff run.
Robin Lopez
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Playing out the final season of a three-year, $15 million deal, Robin Lopez could be in for a significant raise after back-to-back years as the defensive anchor on a playoff team.
The Portland Trail Blazers center made $6.1 million this season, a relative bargain for a high-minutes 7-footer. But a year after playing all 82 games for Portland, then a surprise contender in the West, 2014-15 didn't go exactly how the 27-year-old had hoped.
He missed 23 games in the middle of the season after fracturing his hand, and when he was on the floor, his individual impact wasn't as tangible as a year ago. The Blazers' defense actually allowed 0.9 points more per 100 possessions with Lopez on the floor, as opposed to within him sitting. Last year, they allowed 2.7 points per 100 possessions less with him on (via Basketball-Reference).
His minutes dipped from 31.7 a year ago to 27.8, and his points and rebounds dipped by nearly two apiece. His rebounding percentages dropped across the board, as did his free-throw rate, while his turnovers increased.
Still, there's a need for defensive-minded 7-footers across the league, and with a number of solid postseason outings, all could be forgiven for this year's small step backward.
When discussing potential suitors shortly after Lopez's December injury, Blazer's Edge ran through a few possibilities:
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- There are a handful of teams that may lose their starting centers to free agency this summer. Memphis (Marc Gasol) and the L.A. Clippers (DeAndre Jordan) are the two big ones here. If either player walks away, expect the team losing him to make a serious run at a replacement. This could be Lopez.
- The Spurs have to be nervous that Tim Duncan may retire soon. Who's the heir to that throne?
- The Lakers are in rebuilding mode and have a ton of gaping holes. Center is one of them. Can you see Lopez next to Kobe Bryant, Julius Randle and a 2015 lottery pick TBA?
- The Knicks have been desperate for a strong defensive anchor since they traded Tyson Chandler away. Wouldn't they love RoLo?
- Boston just traded Rajon Rondo for expiring contracts and picks, so Danny Ainge will have plenty of cap space. The Celtics could also really use a strong defensive center. Is that a fit?
The list of suitors could be lengthy, but a positive showing this postseason could bump a couple million dollars more into Lopez's next deal.
Khris Middleton
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A former second-round pick by the Detroit Pistons in 2012, Khris Middleton has emerged as one of this summer's trendiest names to land a lucrative deal. Under Jason Kidd on the surprising Milwaukee Bucks, the 23-year-old has averaged 13.4 points and 4.4 boards per game over 30 minutes.
The versatile 6'7" forward out of Texas A&M shot 40 percent from three-point range this season (52.3 percent in the corners) and a career-high 46.7 percent from the field.
Middleton attributes his all-around improvement to Kidd's coaching staff. Charles F. Gardner of the Journal Sentinel relayed quotes from the player and the coach in March:
""Right now I think the main improvement in my defense has just been the coaches," Middleton said, crediting coach Jason Kidd and his staff. "They've been teaching me defensive schemes, how to guard guys, how to use my length.
"I give all the credit to them and then my teammates having my back. I was watching film during the summer. We do our principles to make sure I stay straight and everybody else stays straight on it."
...
"He's accepted the challenge to get better," Kidd said. "He's gotten better in all phases of his game, not just being known as a shooter but defensively. And he's starting to be more vocal.
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"He's just comfortable," Kidd said. "What we've asked him to do defensively is guard the best perimeter guy. Then offensively, we've asked him to score the ball, be looking for shots or making plays.
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He finished the year eighth among all players in ESPN.com's real plus-minus, which combines a player's individual offensive and defensive contributions into one metric. According to Basketball-Reference, the Bucks were 15 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor. Teams favoring analytics will likely be all over Middleton this offseason.
Continuing his impressive playoff showing—he's averaging 20 points per game—certainly won't hurt matters.
Danny Green
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It's never easy to gauge how a player will perform once they exit the San Antonio Spurs' championship-winning system, but one team may find out next season, should the Spurs let Danny Green walk.
Making $4 million this season, the 27-year-old former second-round pick has established himself as one of San Antonio's best shooters and defenders. Among active players, his 42 percent mark from long distance ranks sixth. His .566 effective field-goal rate ranked seventh this season.
Among shooting guards, he ranked fourth in ESPN.com's real plus-minus, ahead of Klay Thompson and Jimmy Butler—two of the game's best all-around 2-guards.
For Pounding The Rock, Jesus Gomez detailed what has made Green so great this season offensively, and it isn't only his shooting:
"Other than his numbers, what has been surprising about Danny Green this year is his ability to create more of his own offense. He's not a playmaker and he won't take anyone off the dribble in an isolation but Green has found ways to get his shot off without help thanks to his improvement as an opportunistic pick and roll ball handler. When he has to think on his feet or when he faces an aggressive defense the result is often a turnover but when he can simply use the pick and pull up after one or two dribbles, he is very good, ranking in the 70th percentile in scoring among pick and roll ball handlers according to Synergy Sports. He's especially deadly in secondary transition when the defense isn't set.
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Not only can he space the floor, but in the Spurs' versatile offense, he's become adept at both on and off-ball movement, and can handle the ball in the screen-and-roll. He's 6'6" with a 6'10" wingspan, and he's athletic enough to guard several positions.
With Kawhi Leonard due for a max contract this summer, and Tim Duncan's status for next season up in the air, the Spurs may choose to move on from Green, leaving other teams with an interesting decision to make.
Thaddeus Young
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Thaddeus Young has a $10.2 million early termination option to decide on this summer, but if the 26-year-old chooses to hit the open market, there will surely be a number of teams vying for his services.
In his eighth NBA season, the forward has taken a hit by playing for very poor teams, getting traded from the Minnesota Timberwolves to the Brooklyn Nets at the trade deadline. This after spending last season on the 19-63 Philadelphia 76ers. Still, he's made every team better over the course of his career, registering a plus-5.3 net rating since his 2007-08 rookie campaign.
His 49.5 percent shooting, translating to 13.8 points per game, helped boost Brooklyn into the East's final playoff seed over the final month. He's an old-fashioned scorer from in close, but shot uncharacteristically well as a Net from three-point range—19-of-50 in 28 games, or 38 percent.
After averaging under 30 minutes for Brooklyn in the regular season—significantly less than 34.5 he logged over the last two seasons—Young played 40 minutes in Sunday's Game 1 against the Atlanta Hawks. He shot 7-of-16 for 15 points while grabbing 10 boards, also dishing three assists and coming away with a steal.
Young has neglected to speak in-depth on his impending free-agent status, but there's always the possibility of him opting out for a longer-term deal. If he can expound on his Game 1 success and post some more impressive numbers before the series is through, even more teams around the league would have their eyes opened to Young's underrated game.
Rajon Rondo
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Is Rajon Rondo still one of the best point guards in the NBA? Nobody seems to know for sure.
During his first full season since recovering from ACL surgery in 2013, Rondo seemed to experience more downs than ups with the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks. He shot 40.5 percent from the field with Boston before being traded on Dec. 18, and didn't improve much with Dallas, improving to just 43.6 percent in his current home. He shot 48.8 percent from 2008 through 2013.
But Rondo's shot is never what's earned him praise, even when he was a consensus top-level point man. It's the assist numbers, both counting stats and ratios, that tell the tale of his decline. From 2008 through 2013 he averaged 10.2 assists a night over 36 minutes, assisting on an estimated 45 percent on his teammates' makes while he was on the floor.
This year's 7.8 assists were the lowest he's averaged since 2007-08—his first year as a full-time starter. His 39 percent assist ratio was his lowest since that year as well. Playing beside Monta Ellis, another ball-dominant guard, the 29-year-old hasn't been able to prove 2011 Rondo can still emerge.
But the hope is that "Playoff Rondo" still exists, and whether or not it does, we're all about to find out. He hasn't participated in a postseason since 2012, when he appeared to be entering the prime of his career as an undoubted top threat at the 1. He averaged 17.0 points and 12.0 assists over 19 games, including a 44-point, 10-assist, eight-rebound outburst against the Miami Heat in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals, a series that went seven games before that Miami core won the first of their two championships..
There's been plenty of built-in excuses for Rondo over the last three seasons. Recovering from the ACL tear cost him the better part of two campaigns, and when he finally did return to the Celtics' lineup, it was with a rebuilding group. Now with Dallas, he's in a backcourt that doesn't necessarily bring out the best of his skill set.
But there's one way of knowing if this Rondo still exists. It'll be how he fares leading this Mavs group against a brutal Western Conference. If Playoff Rondo is still a thing, some team will be willing to pay for it.
Draymond Green
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These playoffs are only two games old, and Draymond Green may have already solidified himself a maximum contract this summer.
He's shot just 39 percent so far, but he's averaging a double-double with 14.5 points and 12.0 rebounds over 42 minutes a night. But the numbers aren't what dictate how great Green is and the effect he has on this Warriors team. His hustle plays and lockdown defense have helped Golden State emerge as a title contender, and they've continued through the postseason.
In Game 2 on Tuesday, Green held Anthony Davis without a field goal on five shots in the fourth quarter, via B/R's Grant Hughes. Hughes elaborated more on Green's eye-opening night:
"In this particular series, Green's value is obvious. His three-point range pulls Davis away from the rim on defense, and his maniacal competitiveness (not to mention a whole lot of film study, good coaching and vice-grip hands) makes him one of the few defenders who can force Davis into uncomfortable shots.
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This year, his third season and first as full-time starter, Green averaged 11.7 points and 8.2 boards, while his 3.7 nightly assists were more than anyone except Stephen Curry. His 1.3 steals were second to Curry, too, and his 1.3 blocks were second to Andrew Bogut.
Green is just starting to get a feel for his niche as an NBA player. At 25 years old, it's impossible to tell how good he can get, considering his impact on both ends. What we can know for sure, however, is that Golden State has Klay Thompson locked up on a max contract. And once Curry's deal ends in 2017, they'll surely extend a max offer to him as well—a colossal one, if rumors of the new salary cap are true (via DraftExpress' Jonathan Givony).
The Warriors can match any offer for Green, a restricted free agent in July. But they must consider if they can afford to keep this core intact, since it'll mean carrying three maximum salaries over several seasons.
Jimmy Butler
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It was relatively unexpected when the Chicago Bulls offered Jimmy Butler a $40 million extension offer last summer—but Butler declining the offer was even more unexpected. He bet on himself to improve beyond anybody's wildest projections. And he won.
A restricted free agent in July, Butler seems set to receive a max offer from some team. He averaged a career-high 20.0 points per game this year after previously topping out at 13.1 a season ago. His 39.7 field-goal percentage from 2013-14 jumped to 46.2, and he became a reliable three-point shooter at 37.8 percent. All while giving top-level contributions on defense.
For Bleacher Report after Game 2 of Chicago's series vs. the Milwaukee Bucks, Sean Highkin detailed how exactly this transformation has come about:
"“I took a lot of really bad shots, but I think it was in the flow of the game,” said Butler. “My teammates told me not to pass up shots, so I heat-checked a few times, and they just happened to go in.”
That confidence to keep shooting is something Butler has developed throughout a season that has forced him to take a lead role at times. Rose has either been out or playing inconsistently for most of the year, opening up plenty of opportunities for Butler to step up.
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The Bulls have been searching for a complement to Derrick Rose since they drafted the point guard in 2008. They picked up Pau Gasol to help in the short-term, but at 35 years old next season, Gasol doesn't figure to be a long-term piece.
Butler's emergence could settle Chicago's need for a second star in the backcourt—if the Bulls are willing to extend a maximum offer. If Butler can continue through these playoffs much like he has thus far, Bulls management may have no choice.
Kawhi Leonard
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No longer one of the league's best-kept secrets, Kawhi Leonard is due for a major payday this summer. The four-year pro averaged a career-high 16.5 points per game this season, grabbing 7.2 rebounds (another career-high) and leading the league in steals with 2.3 per game.
"The Claw" has always been able to make a defensive impact for these Spurs teams, but now more than ever before. He's slowly been worked more into the team's offensive game plan as well, increasing his field-goal attempts every season since he entered the league, capping out this past year with 12.8 a night, connecting on 47.9 percent.
He's risen to the occasion in the postseason before, taking home Finals MVP honors a year ago. In Game 1 of this year's first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers, Leonard went for 18 points, six rebounds and four steals in a losing effort.
But some could view it as a risk to write a blank check to a player who's never played more than 31.8 minutes per game or attempted more than 13 shots. Bleacher Report's David Kenyon helped explain why the cost will likely be as high as it can be:
"Per HoopsHype, the Spurs will have approximately $32 million in cap space this summer and $47 million before the luxury-tax threshold. Signing Leonard to a maximum contract—since San Antonio holds his Bird rights—would cost about $16 million next season and $90 million over five years.
Is Leonard worth it? Individually, probably not. Plus, the Spurs would certainly benefit from having more money to spread among [Danny] Green, Cory Joseph, Aron Baynes and possible returns from Tim Duncan and/or Ginobili.
But the market sets the price. Players are typically not paid what their theoretical value would be in a perfect world. Franchises around the league with cap space—the Philadelphia 76ers, Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers, for example—could surely spare a few extra million on an offer sheet to Leonard.
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As things stand now, giving Leonard the keys to a franchise may be a close call for some teams. But if the 23-year-old takes over yet another postseason on his Spurs group led by veterans, there won't be any more discussion. Leonard will get that max deal, and it'll then be up to San Antonio to match it.
