Miami Dolphins 2015 Schedule: Win-Loss Predictions for Every Game
We already knew who and where, but we didn't know when and what channel.
Now that the 2015 NFL schedule has been released, the Miami Dolphins can start making travel arrangements for the months of September through December. As for what will happen in January and February, we're still a long way away from getting our answers.
In the meantime, the Dolphins look ahead to a favorable strength of schedule that pits them against opponents with a combined 49.2 win percentage from the 2014 season. That's among the easier half of schedules, according to CBSSports.com's John Breech.
The Dolphins will need to take advantage of that schedule if they want to avoid big changes in 2016. That means winning the games they should win, and probably a couple where they're an underdog. How does the schedule break down?
Let's go through game-by-game and see what we end up with.
Week 1: At Washington Redskins
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Date: Sunday, Sept. 13
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Network: CBS
The Washington Redskins have one of the league's most jumbled quarterback situations, with Robert Griffin III, Colt McCoy and Kirk Cousins all competing for starting duties. Although head coach Jay Gruden endorsed Griffin as the starting quarterback, nothing is precluding them from drafting Marcus Mariota if he's available at No. 5 overall.
That being said, whoever is playing quarterback will probably end up being beat up behind the Redskins' porous offensive line, which yielded a league-high 58 sacks in 2014. The Dolphins defensive line of Cameron Wake, Olivier Vernon and Ndamukong Suh will need to take the opportunity to feast on that offensive line and make life as difficult as possible for the quarterback.
The Dolphins interior offensive line could have a hard time with new Redskins defensive tackle Terrance Knighton, but without Brian Orakpo and Jarvis Jenkins, there wont be as many threats to worry about.
The Redskins are in rebuilding mode, and the Dolphins need to pick up a win to validate themselves as beyond that stage.
Prediction: Dolphins 30, Redskins 10
Week 2: At Jacksonville Jaguars
2 of 17
Date: Sunday, Sept. 20
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Network: CBS
The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the teams that defy the laws of parity. One year after the next, they always manage to be among the worst teams in the NFL. These are the teams the Dolphins should handle with ease.
Blake Bortles might finally be the answer the Jaguars have wanted at quarterback for so long. Then again, he might not be. Either way, the Jaguars offensive line isn't going to help them find out any sooner if he keeps getting beat up like he did last year (sacked 54 times in 2014). The Dolphins defensive line needs to smell the blood in the water and attack the Jaguars' weakness.
Tight end Julius Thomas should pose some matchup problems over the middle; receivers Allen Hurns and Justin Blackmon should be problems on the perimeter, and Marqise Lee is a threat from the slot, but unless Bortles improves his fundamentals and ability to read coverage, the offense isn't going anywhere.
Prediction: Dolphins 27, Jaguars 10
Week 3: Vs. Buffalo Bills
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Date: Sunday, Sept. 27
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Network: CBS
Rex Ryan's feud with the Dolphins continues, but with a new look. Now as head coach of the Buffalo Bills, Ryan gets a chance to bring his record to .500 against the Dolphins (he's currently 5-7) by winning both games against Miami.
That's much easier said than done. The Bills are still without a franchise quarterback, although Ryan is holding out hope that quarterback EJ Manuel will one day wake up and be a legitimate passer. Their lack of a talented passer has not prevented them from beating the Dolphins in the past, though, as the Bills have won four of their past six games against the Dolphins.
If the Bills are going to win again this year, it will once again be thanks to a fierce pass rush. The Bills have sacked Ryan Tannehill 18 times in the past four meetings, taking over games on their own. The Dolphins pass protection needs to be at its best if they are to stem that tide.
The lack of a franchise quarterback is a huge setback, but the Bills have proved they can beat the Dolphins even without stellar quarterback play.
Prediction: Bills 19, Dolphins 14
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Week 4: Vs. New York Jets
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Date: Sunday, Oct. 4
Time: 9:30 a.m. ET
Network: CBS
Why the strange start time? Because this AFC East rivalry takes its beef overseas as the Dolphins square off with the New York Jets at Wembley Stadium.
No matter what the Dolphins do, they simply can't seem to find a way to sweep their season series with the Jets. They may have trouble with that goal once again in 2015.
The Jets have talent across the board, thanks to an offseason spending spree/overhaul that brought in the likes of cornerbacks Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Buster Skrine, wide receiver Brandon Marshall, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and safety Marcus Gilchrist. The talent gap has closed a bit as a result of the Jets' flurry of moves, but while the Dolphins have added talent of their own, their improvements are not up to the Jets' caliber.
That being said, the Jets still do not have an answer at one position, and it happens to be the most important position: Quarterback. Tannehill needs to be the difference in this game, but he may find it hard against that ball-hawking Jets secondary. If the Dolphins can get the running game going, and if they can exploit the linebackers and safeties in coverage, they should get the win.
Prediction: Dolphins 26, Jets 19
Week 5: Bye Week
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The early bye week may seem like a disadvantage, but even by mid-October, the players will have been working nonstop since late-July, nearly three full months; with around two full months remaining in the regular season after the bye, the timing isn't as bad as it seems.
The Dolphins have a legitimate shot to be undefeated heading into their bye week, and they don't have it so tough immediately coming out of their bye, either.
Week 6: At Tennessee Titans
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Date: Sunday, Oct. 18
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Network: CBS
The Tennessee Titans weren't just bad last year; they were awful. They lost 14 games, and 10 of those losses were by double-digit point differentials. These are the kinds of teams the Dolphins should handle with ease.
Between wide receivers Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright and tight end Delanie Walker, the Titans have some measure of talent in the receiving game. But they are still without a proven quarterback, and could either go with second-year quarterback Zach Mettenberger or a rookie—most likely Oregon's Marcus Mariota, if the Titans choose to go that way with the No. 2 overall pick.
Either way, the Dolphins will have an opportunity to confuse a young quarterback with a variety of coverages.
The Titans defense was one of the four worst in Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted metrics, and one of only three defenses that finished among the 10 worst against both the pass and the run. By land or by air, the Dolphins offense should have its way with the Titans defense. Look for the Dolphins to set the tempo with a heavy dose of Lamar Miller and the running game.
Prediction: Dolphins 21, Titans 20
Week 7: Vs. Houston Texans
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Date: Sunday, Oct. 25
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Network: CBS
The Houston Texans made an impressive turnaround in 2014, and we're about to find out if they can be contenders or whether they were just pretenders. The Dolphins are in the opposite boat, following a couple of disappointing 8-8 finishes that have many folks wondering whether they'll always be pretenders or if they'll ever step into that elite group of contenders.
The Texans signed Brian Hoyer to be their starting quarterback, and while he played a big part in the Cleveland Browns' 7-4 start last season, he also played a part in their 0-5 stretch that finished the season. The Dolphins will have some opportunities to make plays on the inaccurate Hoyer, who ranked dead last in accuracy percentage, according to Pro Football Focus; only 64.5 percent of his passes were deemed catchable.
If the Dolphins front four can get after Hoyer, that should only give the secondary even more opportunities to make plays on the ball. That being said, the Texans quarterbacks were sacked on only 5.1 percent of their dropbacks last season, the 12th-best percentage in the NFL. The bigger question is whether the Dolphins offensive line can keep Tannehill clean from defensive linemen J.J. Watt and Vince Wilfork. If they can, the Dolphins should be able to come away with a victory.
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Texans 12
Week 8: At New England Patriots
8 of 17
Date: Thursday, Oct. 29
Time: 8:25 p.m. ET
Network: CBS/NFL Network (Thursday Night Football)
The New England Patriots are one of the best teams in the league at home. They have won 57 out of 64 regular-season home games since 2007 (.891), better than the Green Bay Packers by nearly 10 percent (51-12-1; .805).
It takes a special breed to knock off the Patriots at home. Four times, the Patriots have been held below 20 points on offense; four times, they have yielded more than 30 points on defense. The Dolphins could feasibly wind up on either end of the spectrum, but it would take the Dolphins' best performance of the season.
One thing we know about the Patriots defense is that it always gets better as the season goes along; with the cold weather rolling into Foxborough in late October, and the amount of time the Patriots' new-look defense has to jell, expect a much different look from New England than the Dolphins saw the last time around.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Dolphins 23
Week 9: At Buffalo Bills
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Date: Sunday, Nov. 8
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Network: CBS
Rex Ryan and the Dolphins have had some epic clashes over the years; who could ever forget a boring 13-10 defensive slugfest turning into a 31-27 shootout in a 35-point fourth quarter that saw five lead changes on Monday Night Football? That was way back in 2009, but while the cast of characters has changed almost completely, the rivalry will still be incredibly familiar.
The Buffalo Bills will come in with a similar game plan to the one the Dolphins have seen for years, both from Ryan's New York Jets and from the Bills. An aggressive pass rush and a mix of coverage will be aimed at Ryan Tannehill to confuse him and his offensive line into one mistake after another.
Right now, the Bills are every bit as talented at the receiving spot as the Dolphins, so this could be a tough one for the Dolphins secondary. It will be up to the Dolphins defensive front to create enough pressure to make up for any holes that may be exposed in the back end. Against a Bills offensive line that has more than a couple of holes, Cameron Wake, Olivier Vernon and Ndamukong Suh should have their share of success.
Prediction: Dolphins 27, Bills 12
Week 10: At Philadelphia Eagles
10 of 17
Date: Sunday, Nov. 15
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Network: CBS
The Dolphins wrap up their three-game road trip in Philadelphia.
In case there was any concern that Chip Kelly would be a one-year wonder with the Philadelphia Eagles after a hot 10-6 start to his NFL career in 2013, those concerns were quickly quelled with a repeat record in 2014. Despite an injury that forced his starting quarterback to miss eight games in 2014, the Eagles still won more than half their games—and won four of their eight games without Nick Foles.
For that reason, even with changes at the quarterback position, the Eagles will still be a tough challenge for their opponents.
They may be without Nick Foles, and no one on the Eagles' quarterback depth chart will set Eagles fans at ease—not Mark Sanchez, not Sam Bradford and certainly not Tim Tebow. They may also be without LeSean McCoy, who the Dolphins will have to face twice this year as a member of the Buffalo Bills. They've capably replaced McCoy with DeMarco Murray, though, and the Eagles' uptempo offense should continue to run wild on the NFL.
Prediction: Eagles 30, Dolphins 20
Week 11: Vs. Dallas Cowboys
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Date: Sunday, Nov. 22
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Network: Fox
Interconference games are always so hard to predict. The two teams never meet aside from once every four years, and so the matchups are always brand-new. The Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys will be no different.
Theirs will be a matchup of strength vs. strength, as this contest pits a talented Dallas offensive line against a talented Dolphins defensive line. The Cowboys offensive line finished the 2014 season ranked No. 5 in pass-blocking efficiency, according to Pro Football Focus, but defensive end Cameron Wake and defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh both ranked in the top 10 at their position in pass-rushing productivity.
There will also be some weakness vs. weakness, as the Cowboys' lackluster pass rush (28 sacks in 2014, fifth-fewest in the league) goes up against the Dolphins' porous pass protection (46 sacks allowed, 10th-most in the league). Whichever unit fares better in the latter matchup should be the victor.
The Dolphins should try to exploit the aggressive Cowboys defensive line with draws and screens to keep them off balance. If they can do that, then hit the Cowboys with play action, they should be able to hold serve at home.
Prediction: Dolphins 31, Cowboys 26
Week 12: At New York Jets
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Date: Sunday, Nov. 29
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Network: CBS
As if it weren't enough that the Dolphins had to travel for a "home" game against the New York Jets at Wembley Stadium in Week 4, they must also travel for a road game against them about two months later.
Setting has made no difference in this rivalry, though, as the Jets have won in Miami for two straight years and the Dolphins have won at MetLife Stadium for two straight years as well.
The difference here will be Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, a shutdown duo of cornerbacks that could throw the Dolphins passing game out of rhythm—and make no mistake, rhythm is crucial in the dink-and-dunk offense of coordinator Bill Lazor.
To make matters worse, the Dolphins' porous offensive line must hold the trenches firm against head coach Todd Bowles, known for his exotic blitzes that could confuse Ryan Tannehill and his pass protection. Unless that group plays a solid game, the Jets could end up the victors in this clash of rivals.
Prediction: Jets 17, Dolphins 14
Week 13: Vs. Baltimore Ravens
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Date: Sunday, Dec. 6
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Network: CBS
No matter what the Dolphins do, they can't seem to avoid heartbreaking defeat at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. They were a chip-shot field goal away from overtime in 2013 before a sack pushed them out of Caleb Sturgis' range and gave the Ravens the win. They were up 10-0 in the first quarter in 2014 and managed to lose 28-13 on their home turf.
So if the Dolphins are a little extra fired up for this one, you can understand why.
The Ravens defense controlled the line of scrimmage in the running game last year, holding opponents to 88 yards per game on the ground. They also had defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who is now suiting up for the Detroit Lions.
That being said, the Dolphins will probably have to win this one through the air, which will put the pressure on offensive tackles Ja'Wuan James and Branden Albert to keep quarterback Ryan Tannehill clean from Ravens pass-rushers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. Tannehill was sacked six times in the 2014 meeting and another six times the year before. More pressure like that simply cannot happen if the Dolphins want to pick up the victory.
Prediction: Ravens 17, Dolphins 14
Week 14: Vs. New York Giants
14 of 17
Date: Monday, Dec. 14
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Network: ESPN (Monday Night Football)
The Dolphins and New York Giants are in the same boat. Both teams have been at or slightly below the .500 mark for the past few seasons, and both teams need a playoff push to validate their current regimes.
Giants quarterback Eli Manning is becoming more comfortable in the West Coast offensive system of new coordinator Ben McAdoo, which focuses on spreading the ball around to multiple receivers.
With wide receivers Odell Beckham, Jr., Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle, the Dolphins will have their hands full keeping everyone covered. The Dolphins pass rush is going to have to bring its A-game to disrupt Manning in the pocket, and the Dolphins corners will have to play physical to disrupt Manning's timing with his receivers.
But as is the case nearly every year, the biggest challenges the Giants present are with their defensive line. There's going to be a lot of stress on the Dolphins offensive line to keep Tannehill clean, and look for the matchup between defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul and tackle Branden Albert to be one of the keys in the game.
Prediction: Dolphins 27, Giants 21
Week 15: At San Diego Chargers
15 of 17
Date: Sunday, Dec. 20
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Network: CBS
The Dolphins and Chargers have met twice in the past two seasons, and Miami has won both encounters. Last year's victory was a 37-0 drubbing, one of only seven shutouts in the NFL last season.
The Dolphins have done a good job on quarterback Philip Rivers, holding the former first-round pick to only one touchdown against four interceptions in the past two seasons. The Dolphins defensive line also held the Chargers to a miserable 50 rushing yards in their previous meeting, thanks largely to the big lead they had built by the end of the first half.
One of the key matchups in this contest will be cornerback Brent Grimes against Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen. The Dolphins will need their No. 1 cornerback to keep the Chargers' No. 1 receiver from having a big day if they want to come out with the victory.
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Chargers 20
Week 16: Vs. Indianapolis Colts
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Date: Sunday, Dec. 27
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Network: CBS
This will mark the third meeting between Andrew Luck's Indianapolis Colts and Ryan Tannehill's Miami Dolphins, and it will also be a rubber match, with each quarterback holding a victory over the other.
The two teams last met two years ago, and quite a lot has changed; former Dolphins wide receiver Mike Wallace made a couple of game-changing catches, but he'll be suiting up for the Minnesota Vikings this year; former Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne made some big catches of his own back in 2012, but he's not suiting up for anyone this year.
One thing that remains the same is that the Dolphins are still a well-rounded team, albeit with slightly more talent on defense, while the Colts are still an offense-heavy team with a defense that can be exposed. The Colts are at their weakest at linebacker, so look for Tannehill to spread the ball to his multiple matchup nightmares over the middle: tight end Jordan Cameron, wide receiver Jarvis Landry and running back Lamar Miller.
Prediction: Dolphins 29, Colts 21
Vs. New England Patriots
17 of 17
Date: Sunday, Jan. 3
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Network: CBS
There's something about Miami. The New England Patriots just don't play their best football at Sun Life Stadium.
They have lost in each of their past two trips to Florida, and there's reason to believe that the Dolphins can pull off a hat trick with three straight wins in Miami over the kings of the AFC East.
Not only have the Patriots lost their talented starting cornerback duo of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, but they've also not yet re-signed guard Dan Connolly. As underrated as that may sound, Connolly was one of the key players in stifling defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh last year when the Patriots met the Detroit Lions—Suh notched only two quarterback hurries and one hit, per Pro Football Focus.
Likewise, one of the keys to the Dolphins' success against the Patriots has been the dominance of their defensive line. Last year, they brought down quarterback Tom Brady four times, including a sack-fumble that kicked off the second half with a bang.
The matchups in the Dolphins passing game versus the Patriots pass defense will be brand-new, but the result could be the same, with Tannehill doing just enough to guide his team to victory.
Prediction: Dolphins 27, Patriots 24
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